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hankpyro
01-03-2008, 09:58 PM
I can safely say that we will do better than Team Iowa but I don't think that New Hampshire is our best chance. Not by a long shot. We have a lot going for us. A libertarian tradition, the Free Staters, OLFD. If volunteers are soldiers, the Free Staters and OLFD are special forces. Forces to be reckoned with.

But do not underestimate the power of Romney in NH. New Hampshire is to Romney what New Jersey is to Guliani. People in Hoboken might not know who their mayor is but they know who the mayor of NYC is. Same way with New Hampshire and their neighboring governor.

Romney has some real flaws. He might not be able to win in the South and if he scores poorly in SC and FL there may be a national GOP move to kneecap him. The leaders of the GOP know that you cannot win the national election without winning the South. Romney is only strong in three states but one of them happens to be New Hampshire (Utah and Massachusetts being the other two.)

Romney is no fool. He has been preparing his run for President all of his life. He could have run for governor in several different states (including New Hampshire where he is a property owner.) He chose Massachusetts. I don't know if proximity to New Hampshire (and the ongoing TV and radio exposure) was a factor but I would not be surprised if that was the case.

Kerry did well in New Hampshire in 2004 for much of the same reason. Dean from Vermont, a state that also borders New Hampshire, did well in the northern and western parts of the state. But Kerry did better along the more populated southern border (the Massachusetts border.)

No one will have it wrapped up before Super Tuesday and it might not be settled then (in either party.) A lot can happen between now and then. So please do not say "If we lose in New Hampshire we are through." It just isn't the case. We have a better chance to win Nevada and South Carolina (and if we get an effort from the locals--Michigan) than we do New Hampshire.

Please...No "New Hampshire or bust" threads. Please.

dvictr
01-03-2008, 10:02 PM
nice post

Mises
01-03-2008, 10:04 PM
Excellent post. What people should remember is that all we need is for Ron Paul to make a splash there. The NH primary is the first primary and if he has a good showing then he is definately on the national radar screen.

RonPaulFTFW
01-03-2008, 10:07 PM
I think i'll wait and be optimistic after we do better in NH.

RyanC
01-03-2008, 10:12 PM
I'm a long time guest here, didn't think I needed to register until a little while ago when I found this neat piece of info:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#val=IAREP

Scroll down to vote my Party ID, and you see that Ron Paul got the highest percentage of Independents to vote for him among the republicans. That looks like good news to me as things shift towards NH :)

jgmaynard
01-03-2008, 10:25 PM
Wow - 29% of the Ind vote - since we Inds make up 44% of NH voters, that is a very good sign. We also won those who self-identified as angry with Bush, and we NHites haven't liked Bush since 2000 when he jipped a bunch of kids out of ice cream.

JM

nullvalu
01-03-2008, 10:41 PM
I was talking to a friend of mine who is a NH native, living in FL. He went home for the holidays and told me there was Ron Paul stuff EVERYWHERE in NH. He even said he seen a woman holding a sign saying "Freedom is Sexy - Vote Ron Paul".. lol.. Yes.. I think we'll do much better in NH.

jgmaynard
01-03-2008, 10:48 PM
There's stuff for everybody here now en masse. It's pretty funny - the signs are stuck at the top of 4' snowbanks. :) But almost all the signs are illegally placed on public property. What's on private property are mostly Ron Paul and Obama signs.

JM

Winston
01-03-2008, 11:04 PM
Excellent post HankPryo. I think you are right. They say McCain will go after Romney in NH as Huckabee and went after Romney in Iowa. I suspect Paul should try to beat Huckabee and Thompson since the Preacher thing doesnt go as far there. But he will have momentum.

I am interested to see how Paul does in Nevada. It could be a harbinger for California and perhaps the west in general.

Badger Paul
01-03-2008, 11:07 PM
They may KNOW who Mitt Romney is, but do the LIKE or LOVE or RESPECT or will RUN THROUGH BRICK WALLS for him? I doubt it, especially not after tonight. I never thought his organization in Iowa was all that brilliant to begin with. They bought 10,000 tickets to the straw pol and barely 4,000 voted for him. What does that tell you?

I think we have a good chance to come in third in New Hampshire and then we'll see where we go from there.

jgmaynard
01-03-2008, 11:19 PM
I was watching the pre-caucus reports today with a couple of McCain campaign workers and they told me they thought Paul would show in the top 3 in NH. :)

JM

Crickett
01-04-2008, 12:17 AM
Excellent post HankPryo. I think you are right. They say I am interested to see how Paul does in Nevada. It could be a harbinger for California and perhaps the west in general.


I think Ron is going to WIN in Nevada. I really do. I also feel he will come in at least 2nd in CA.

hankpyro
01-04-2008, 12:17 AM
[QUOTE=Badger Paul;806286]They may KNOW who Mitt Romney is, but do the LIKE or LOVE or RESPECT or will RUN THROUGH BRICK WALLS for him? ..."

Maybe not. But we have people like that and it didn't do us any good in Iowa.

Xonox
01-04-2008, 12:28 AM
Don't underestimate Romney's $$$ power, but we can win. Campaign hard.

Kalitechne
01-04-2008, 12:44 AM
If Dr. Paul emphasizes "America First" and his pledge to lower taxes and cut the debt, along with his record on this, then I really think registered Republicans will give their support to him. Living on Long Island, NY, I can tell you that every single person here is concerned about taxes and big government deep down, but they have been distracted by 9/11 and the Middle East (enter Giuliani). Giuliani's support is probably strong in the tri-state area, but many groups despise him, such as the FDNY and NYPD, so his support can be chipped away. Everyone loves to knock people off of their pedestals.

ThePieSwindler
01-04-2008, 01:35 AM
To the OP - do you think we can beat McCain?