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View Full Version : The polls were wrong, we were right




hawkeyenick
01-03-2008, 09:11 PM
We got way more than the polls were predicting...a very good sign!

AFM
01-03-2008, 09:13 PM
The polls predicted 9 percent
We got 10

hawkeyenick
01-03-2008, 09:15 PM
The polls predicted 9 percent
We got 10

Actually, they predicted 7.3%

georgia_tech_swagger
01-03-2008, 09:16 PM
Actually, they predicted 7.3%

Still within the margin of error.

Driftar
01-03-2008, 09:16 PM
Actually, they predicted 7.3%

I was able to tie for third in my district... McCaine won, irronically.

Shaun
01-03-2008, 09:20 PM
The polls were right. Lessons learned for all of us.

coboman
01-03-2008, 09:25 PM
No. The latest poll had him at 10%.

The polls were dead on. We have to recognize this, if we want to win.
We must learn from our mistakes.

MISTAKE #1: We didn't listen to the polls.

Rede
01-03-2008, 09:25 PM
we're at 9.9 now... either way, this kinda destroys the whole "polls are wrong" argument, or at least shows they're not nearly as far off as people are saying.

you know what the mistake was? raising expectations. all this talk of third made around 10% disappointing because it's 5th. we're only 3% off mccain sitting in 4th and he's still considered a frontrunner in new hampshire. if you think about it, we're not that far out of this.

but im still disappointed.

Chadd Murray
01-03-2008, 09:29 PM
The mistake was always just buying into this unscientific, disproven conspiracy theorist garbage that a lot of people post around these forums.

Shaun
01-03-2008, 09:30 PM
Yup, agreed, the polls were bang on target in the main. Amazing. All this speculation on land lines versus cell phones turned out to be misguided and hyped up. It was certainly my opinion that if our champ was showing 8-10% in the polls that he may come in much higher than that. So, guess what? It may be completely different in NH, it could still be a shocker.
Let's see....

JPFromTally
01-03-2008, 09:31 PM
A lote more than the LA Times poll at 3%

Driftar
01-03-2008, 09:40 PM
Guy's, you have to understand Iowa is bizzare, and not a representation of the rest of the nation.

My Caucus was attended by 90 people, most elderly who had no idea who ron paul was, and only cared about voting for McCaine, Huckabee, or Romney.

Paul tied for third there, and I got someone to nominate me as a delegate, and i got to give a speech that had people coming up to me afterwards asking about Paul and his record on taxes. And i got a date with a cute girl sitting a few seats away, who came in as a rudy supporter and i coverted her and her mom to paul (she nominated me as a delegate)

anyway, on to NEW HAMSHIRE

Driftar
01-03-2008, 09:45 PM
A lote more than the LA Times poll at 3%

Exactly.

Chadd Murray
01-03-2008, 09:47 PM
lol so you point to one of the less reputable polls? Good work.
Congratulations on getting a date man?

atilla
01-03-2008, 09:47 PM
We got way more than the polls were predicting...a very good sign!
sorry, russmusen this morning said 10%

Flirple
01-03-2008, 10:04 PM
No. The latest poll had him at 10%.

The polls were dead on. We have to recognize this, if we want to win.
We must learn from our mistakes.

MISTAKE #1: We didn't listen to the polls.

QFT.

Wishful groupthink is fun but damaging to our cause. But now we know were we stand and can learn from this. And hey, 10% is better than what people gave us credit for.

hasan
01-03-2008, 10:21 PM
hawkeye you are in iowa tell us how the delegate situation is looking. were caucus goers informed about the delegate process?

BiPolarBear
01-03-2008, 10:29 PM
Guy's, you have to understand Iowa is bizzare, and not a representation of the rest of the nation.

My Caucus was attended by 90 people, most elderly who had no idea who ron paul was, and only cared about voting for McCaine, Huckabee, or Romney.

Paul tied for third there, and I got someone to nominate me as a delegate, and i got to give a speech that had people coming up to me afterwards asking about Paul and his record on taxes. And i got a date with a cute girl sitting a few seats away, who came in as a rudy supporter and i coverted her and her mom to paul (she nominated me as a delegate)

anyway, on to NEW HAMSHIRE

Yeah, I don't think many people understand places like Iowa. Congrats on the good work and the luck with the ladies! :cool:

LinuxUser269
01-03-2008, 10:34 PM
you can not use national polls to judge Iowa Results .

over all i do think the polls are wrong.

10% in Iowa is good and we are right behind 3rd place because 3&4th are about a tie .


where we expected to be ? right ?

devil21
01-03-2008, 10:53 PM
The Iowa polls are likely much more accurate than national polls. Iowa is an evangelical stronghold full of Bushies. I don't think you can take the Iowa results (which still arent bad at all considering above) and apply that to the rest of the country.