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View Full Version : Ron Paul up to 10% in last Iowa Zogby Poll




gagnonstudio
01-03-2008, 07:00 AM
He's tied with McCain and Thompson still, but he's gone up 1% every day for the last 3 days in this poll.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0264367920080103
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

Adamsa
01-03-2008, 07:03 AM
Please let it be a sign!

Highstreet
01-03-2008, 07:05 AM
bump

He's also 3rd according to Vegas!

http://www.gambling911.com/Ron-Paul-010308.html

szczebrzeszyn
01-03-2008, 07:05 AM
Hehe
Funny to read it and seeing 'front-runner' Giuliani not even mentioned. Instead, we have Ron. YEAH!

Eponym_mi
01-03-2008, 07:06 AM
I like this upward trend going into the caucus. Good sign!

curtisag
01-03-2008, 07:09 AM
Zogby doesn't want egg all over his face. He knows the power of Ron's support. AMAZING AMAZING NUMBERS though!

ST0PandL00K
01-03-2008, 07:09 AM
man im so nervous!

voytechs
01-03-2008, 07:10 AM
Notice Clinton fell to 3rd place in IA.

jamesmadison
01-03-2008, 07:10 AM
apply the james madison 2.5x multiplier to get the real result = 25%

Thumper
01-03-2008, 07:11 AM
I have such serious reservations about any poll that is showing RP behind Thompson...

DJ RP
01-03-2008, 07:13 AM
I think Clinton will NOT win the Democratic primary.

If we believe the polls are bullshit with Paul then why wouldn't they be over on the dem side?

I have seen nothing but hatered for Hillary, and the supporters she does have I doubt will be nearly as motivated as the obama/edwards/biden supporters.

jamesmadison
01-03-2008, 07:16 AM
I think Clinton will NOT win the Democratic primary.

If we believe the polls are bullshit with Paul then why wouldn't they be over on the dem side?

I have seen nothing but hatered for Hillary, and the supporters she does have I doubt will be nearly as motivated as the obama/edwards/biden supporters.

They are but none of their candidates are as much of a threat at RP, which is why they underepresent his support so much.

acroso
01-03-2008, 07:20 AM
Vegas odds are always right. 3rd would put the cons on the ropes. We need to knock old wind bad thompson out of the race for good.

LET THE REVOLUTION BEGIN!

FluffyUnbound
01-03-2008, 07:47 AM
The Zogby poll is a tracker of a 4-day moving average.

That means to go from 7 to 10 in just a couple of days requires a major spike to bring the average up.

Mathematically, it's virtually certain that Paul smoked Thompson and McCain among the voters reached by phone just last night, and probably over the last 2 days. SMOKED.

curtisag
01-03-2008, 07:54 AM
The Zogby poll is a tracker of a 4-day moving average.

That means to go from 7 to 10 in just a couple of days requires a major spike to bring the average up.

Mathematically, it's virtually certain that Paul smoked Thompson and McCain among the voters reached by phone just last night, and probably over the last 2 days. SMOKED.

We can estimate what his support is today using that information. If he started with 7 4 days ago, to reach an average of 10, he would need a major spike. It probably went something like this, 7, 9, 11, 13.

FluffyUnbound
01-03-2008, 07:55 AM
OK, sorry about double posting here but looking at these numbers I got pumped and just had to reiterate this:

Two polling days ago, Paul was at 7. Since it's a four day average that means that for the four previous days Paul got 28 total points in the survey.

Now he's at 10. That means that for the four previous polling days Paul got 40 total points in the survey.

That means that the swing between the last 2 days and the previous average was 12 total points, or 6 points a day higher than the average of just two days ago.

Zogby is saying that in momentum terms, Paul is currently at 13.

slowmotionjones
01-03-2008, 07:58 AM
Now we know why the MSM was so nice yesterday. Solid third coming up and Fox about to be ridiculed by EVERYONE!

Ron LOL
01-03-2008, 07:59 AM
man im so nervous!

http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/3379/rextoystoryen8.jpg

Thurston Howell III
01-03-2008, 08:00 AM
Zogby doesn't want egg all over his face. He knows the power of Ron's support. AMAZING AMAZING NUMBERS though!

LOL yeah, we should send them all a small towel, with a note saying: "To wipe the egg off your face." LOL

Forgive me, but I do so love it when they squirm!

Ozwest
01-03-2008, 08:00 AM
They are going to need a big shovel to dig themselves out of this shit! :D

Ron LOL
01-03-2008, 08:04 AM
LOL yeah, we should send them all a small towel, with a note saying: "To wipe the egg off your face." LOL

Forgive me, but I do so love it when they squirm!

Or maybe a "Ron Paul 2008" towel in a glass box..."break in case of egg on face."

slowmotionjones
01-03-2008, 08:05 AM
We can estimate what his support is today using that information. If he started with 7 4 days ago, to reach an average of 10, he would need a major spike. It probably went something like this, 7, 9, 11, 13.

Using the same math for the other candidates:

McCain was at 4% yesterday

Thompson .. .. 8%

Ghoul .. .. 3%

GD I hope for once that the polls are at least half right.

FluffyUnbound
01-03-2008, 08:08 AM
Using the same math for the other candidates:

McCain was at 4% yesterday

Thompson .. .. 8%

Ghoul .. .. 3%

GD I hope for once that the polls are at least half right.

That would make sense.

I think it's natural for mainstream candidates with marginal support to hemorrhage voters in the final polling days.

Mainstream voters don't like showing up for a "loser". If there's an easy replacement candidate they'll take him. McCain supporters can jump to Romney. Thompson supporters can jump to Huckabee if they're Religious, Romney if they're Establishment, Paul if they're Federalist. And Giuliani never had any supporters. Seriously, has anyone ever seen a Giuliani supporter "in the wild"?

newmedia4ron
01-03-2008, 08:10 AM
Its gonna be so close. Every vote is crucial! Turnout is so important!

LFOD
01-03-2008, 08:12 AM
I'd be happy with 3rd. Wouldn't be bouncing off the walls, but still pleased. It would be a great momentum builder and establish his leading candidate creds with the media. I'd be ecstatic with 2nd. But 3rd is very good.

mjp1025
01-03-2008, 08:17 AM
I'm thinking that ol' Fred will go find his favorite easy chair shortly after NH!!!

Ozwest
01-03-2008, 08:22 AM
I'd be happy with 3rd. Wouldn't be bouncing off the walls, but still pleased. It would be a great momentum builder and establish his leading candidate creds with the media. I'd be ecstatic with 2nd. But 3rd is very good.

+1

Molly1
01-03-2008, 09:04 AM
Throw it away
Forget yesterday
We'll make the great escape
We won't hear a word they say
They don't know us anyway

Watch it burn
Let it die
Cause we are finally free tonight

Midnight77
01-03-2008, 09:07 AM
Hillary is in third place now. Hysterical.

What was that you told Katie Couric, Hillary?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V47-HRJUxmM

szczebrzeszyn
01-03-2008, 09:11 AM
I'd be happy with 3rd. Wouldn't be bouncing off the walls, but still pleased. It would be a great momentum builder and establish his leading candidate creds with the media. I'd be ecstatic with 2nd. But 3rd is very good.
3rd and I'm gonna get drunk tonight

voytechs
01-03-2008, 09:19 AM
Arrogant isn't she.

sunray
01-03-2008, 09:21 AM
This link has more details on the poll including the fact that Dr. Paul polls at 17.8% among people of age 18-24 and that age group forms only 7.5% of the samples.

http://www.c-span.org/pdf/zogby/reuters_cspan_reps_data_010308.pdf

So if more young people turn up, more votes for us.

itshappening
01-03-2008, 09:25 AM
it all depends if they turn out. usually older people go to caucus and there's a football game on

dude58677
01-03-2008, 10:50 AM
I think Clinton will NOT win the Democratic primary.

If we believe the polls are bullshit with Paul then why wouldn't they be over on the dem side?

I have seen nothing but hatered for Hillary, and the supporters she does have I doubt will be nearly as motivated as the obama/edwards/biden supporters.

My thoughts exactly. The only people that suport hilliary are tax lawyers, lesbians, and lobbyists.