Poll: Where will Ron Paul finish in New Hampshire?

[Paul4Prez]

Vote in the poll, and give your reasons here. Extra bonus points for voting before the Iowa caucus results are in.

[Paul4Prez]

Any more predictions? Does Iowa help or hurt Ron Paul in New Hampshire? I think it helps, because 10% makes him seem more viable than the media has been portraying him, and because he did well with independents there.

[E. Nordstrom]

///////URGENT//////

This is not a democracy - this is a revolution. We can talk or we can do!

Want to give Dr. Paul $20 Million again?

We do too - Here is the plan in two phases! We need to unite, do not fix what isn't broken, stay with the proven methods of the 4th quarter, and whatever you do, don't make any more moeybomb websites, those of you who are, are killing the method - spammers and video pros needed - get the word out with all guns blazing!

Phase 1: Sign up to donate on January 21, 2008 - http://www.freeatlast2008.com over 3000 people now signed up and growing! - Trevor Lyman and Vijay Boyapati (In memory of Martin Luther King)

Phase 2: Sign up to donate on February 3, 2008 - http://www.libertytax08.com over $15,000.00 in pledges already! - Eric Nordstrom, Republic Magazine, Prison Planet, and an Army of IRS Haters (Make a fist and raise your center finger to the IRS)

The last stand of Ron Paul's Donation Machine (Us) before Super Tuesday! Either way, let's give Ron Paul the push over the top he needs for the general election and go out with the loudest noise possible.

http://www.FreeAtLast2008.com/images/banner468x60.jpg (http://www.freeatlast2008.com)


http://www.libertytax08.com/images/lt08ad1.jpg (http://www.libertytax08.com)

See: http://www.ronpaulmoneybomb.com for details.

http://www.ronpaulmoneybomb.com/images/rpmb_banner.jpg (http://www.ronpaulmoneybomb.com)
.

[Gimme Some Truth]

If the independents turn out for us again I think 3rd is a possibility

[faisal]

They say that Ron Paul has 2 times the number of signs in New Hampshire then every other candidate combined. The state is libertarian and was meant for him. If he can't win NH, then I don't see how he'll win at all.

[LivingFree]

People are saying 2nd or 3rd. I'll be realistic and say 3rd.

[internetsurfer]

I'm betting on 3rd, ahead of Ghouliana, Huckabible, and Fred. Lot's of independents and strong Libertarian streak in NH!!

[thoughtbombing]

If you can't win in New Hampshire, or take a CLOSE SECOND, I'd say we're done. Spend all the money in Florida and South Carolina... if we don't win or place in the top 2 there, we're done for sure.

[dvictr]

this is a 50 state campaign... we need a voter count on feb. 5th... across the country

[Liberty Star]

3rd.

Can do better if campaign launches an aggressive TV/radio/print ad blitz hitting hard on Iraq war/Liberties/economy issues and targetting McCain's 100 year Iraq war stance. No ads like the one controversial Iowa ad and a claer message of Change and Hope, that will also target young vote and stop Obama from breaking away any RP support in younger demographic.

[colecrowe]

I think he will get, and has to get at least 2nd behind McCain. If it's behind anyone else, that 1st place finisher will go on to win it. And it will be something like

McCain 29% (Not all of the voters will be anti-war--not even close, so he will win, but his showing in Iowa will hurt him, as well as the Polls not showing Paul's true support)
Ron Paul 20% (But a ton of voters will be anti-war--if we get the vote out 20% is extremely probable)
Romney 19% (Romney will lose support due to his negative campaign, and support going to others like Thompson and Huckabee based on Iowa, and the polls not showing Paul's true support)
Huck 16% (He will definitely pick up a bit from Iowa, but NH will still reject him)
Giuliani 9% (I don't think he will lose much support even due to Iowa, he is the perfect sheeple candidate)
Thompson 7% (he will pick up because of his 3rd place in Iowa)

such that no one really has strong support! That is the key.

So I really think it has to be at least 2nd to have a sure shot (or any shot) at the Nomination. And McCain has to win instead of Romney or Huckabee, because one of those two can sweep it from there. I say that because I don't think McCain can possibly get the nomination based on his Amnesty problem. And if Romney (or even Huckabee) gets 1st, and Paul gets at least third, he won't have a shot at the nomination and will have to show well through Feb 5th so he can start his Independent run.

If he get's a strong third, and continues doing really well all the way through Feb 5th (like 16%+), then he can probably start his Independent run and go on to win the Presidency that way.

But we would need some absolutely amazing national infomercials or forget it.

Pray for horrible weather, it looks pretty mild now:http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/forecasts/zone/nh/nhz008.txt

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.


Real Clear Politics Average:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/new_hampshire-primary.html
McCain 31
Romney 30
Giuliani 10
Huckabee 9.5
Paul 7
Thompson 2

Pollster Average:http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
McCain 31
Romney 26
Huckabee 11
Giuliani 10
Paul 8
Thompson 2

[Goldwater Conservative]

I think Julie's piss-poor performance in Iowa and the tightening McCain-Romney fight only means his numbers will be less than the polls indicate.

Huck might get a little bounce, but New Hampshire doesn't seem to like him much and they have a history of rejecting Iowa's choice. Also, the aforementioned McCain-Romney duel has at least one candidacy on the line, which means Huck's evangelical base might swing to Romney because so many of them loathe McCain. Huck will be our primary competitor for third.

While excited independents might flock to Obama, hopefully enough let their guard down that we can at least squeak by Huckleberry and get another (better) double-digit showing.

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

Iowa and NH are polar opposites, and the media pimping these early primaries are a ploy to divide and confuse Americans. It is a laughable joke. Anyone who thinks "it's over" after NH, no matter where Ron places, is in la-la land.
Florida has more delegates than everything before it combined, and that could be Ron's strongest early state based on boots on the ground reports.

[jackbid]

Americans watch TV... On an average at least 4 hours a day...

We need Ron Paul on TV big time...

Average people don't read like us. They don;t read history or economy, there's just no time for it. They watch TV. Any candidate who can simplify the message, and goes on TV, is a sureshot winner.

People get turned-off by Ron Paul on his "No-more-free-healthcare" policy. America is more of a socialist than a capitalist. This has been the way since forever. Healthcare policy is teh most negative point in the entire campaign.

Again, I believe Dr. Paul can come 2nd in New Hampshire, and surprise the hell out of MSM. NH is one of the strongest Paulanteers bases.

[idiom]

Obama is going to flog the independents. Because of this the Polls become a lot more accurate.

[losinglife]

my guess third... but then again i voted 4th in Iowa (tho he got 4th its still counting as 5th) so maybe i will be wrong and get 4th in NH! god damnit i have yet to make 1 correct prediction about this campaign hahah. Even the money bombs i didnt think woudl go as high as they did.

[RedLightning]

3rd, which I think he needs to get to show the other 48 states that he is viable. He needs a good placing early to keep his fundrasing momentum. I think he could get 2nd, but then I predicted third in Iowa.

[stevedasbach]

Paul 3rd in New Rasmussen Poll in New Hampshire (taken after Iowa)
Details here:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=76707