To all those saying "Ron Paul will get 3rd/4th"

[SonicInfinity]

I'm seriously getting pissed off at you all.

We should ALWAYS be aiming for first place. Without the spirit to win, WE AREN'T GOING TO WIN. If we be all "lol, let him get third place, he'll win some other time", we WON'T WIN some other time. We have to give 110% in EVERY state and at EVERY moment if we ever expect Ron Paul to be President.

[Man from La Mancha]

Ron Paul will get 1st place unless vote fraud
.

[itshappening]

the media generally think he'll come last so keep the expectations low because however high he places will be a surprise

[Ron Paul Fan]

They're just giving their honest opinion and I think it's pretty realistic at this point.

[DjLoTi]

Ignorance isn't going to win you an election.

[mjp1025]

Can't wait for those post-caucus newscasts....pretty hard to talk with your foot in your mouth!!!!

[Ron LOL]

Under-promise, over-deliver. :D

[fireworks_god]

I'm seriously getting pissed off at you all.

Why not get pissed off at something more serious, like, for example, reading a multiple-page thread and feeling the need to create your own thread to call more, undue attention to your own opinion. :rolleyes:

[SeanEdwards]

Can't wait for those post-caucus newscasts....pretty hard to talk with your foot in your mouth!!!!

I am so watching the Hannity and Colmes show for the first time in years when Paul pwns in Iowa. Sweet delicious Hannity tears... ah victory.

[thoughtbombing]

Can't wait for those post-caucus newscasts....pretty hard to talk with your foot in your mouth!!!!


Surely no harder than with their head up their collective asses, like they have been for years. When we take first in Iowa, First in New Hampshire, First in Carolina....

you get the point... I bet they cover vote fraud like it's going out of style... "obviously they are spamming the voting booths." :D

[Real_CaGeD]

The MSM is working on you folks. Every sign I see, coffee beans, aol straw polls, cspan calls, fundraising, all go against establishment mantra. Ron Paul is the frontrunner.

http://www.hamburginn.com/CoffeeBeanCaucus.asp?No=4

[jillian]

No such thing as 110%.

People are being realisitc. No need to get pissed. Put that energy somewhere else.

[rooteroa]

Ron Paul will get 1st place unless vote fraud
.

Oh come on. It's shit like this that pisses me off, not people being objective and saying he'll probably get 3rd.

[werdd]

agree first is doable. Think about turnout, only the most energetic supporters will turnout to go through a lengthy process like a caucus. they are only predicting 100k to turnout, so we only need about 30k votes to win the thing. Its completely possible, just because these polls are telling us that grandmas that sit at home and watch fox news are voting for huckabee, doesnt mean real actual motivated young republicans arent going to thrash these caucuses.

[SonicInfinity]

No such thing as 110%.

People are being realisitc. No need to get pissed. Put that energy somewhere else.

I'm just sick of the media all making you want to think that "3rd/4th" place is good. For me, only 1st place or an EXTREMELY CLOSE 2nd place will make me satisfied. Otherwise, it's a disappointment.

[austin4paul]

I'm seriously getting pissed off at you all.

We should ALWAYS be aiming for first place. Without the spirit to win, WE AREN'T GOING TO WIN. If we be all "lol, let him get third place, he'll win some other time", we WON'T WIN some other time. We have to give 110% in EVERY state and at EVERY moment if we ever expect Ron Paul to be President.

Sonic -- this is IOWA we're talkin' about here, not the ultimate nomination. Don't be discouraged if he doesn't win Iowa. It wouldn't be the first time the eventual nominee lost there. Yes, there are some liberty lovers there, but they also love their subsidies and a lot of evangelical types there too. We'll do better when we get to New Hampshire, so keep the faith brother. [irony intended]

http://static.flickr.com/34/72672595_df7efcf5db.jpg

[jillian]

I'm just sick of the media all making you want to think that "3rd/4th" place is good. For me, only 1st place or an EXTREMELY CLOSE 2nd place will make me satisfied. Otherwise, it's a disappointment.

I understand. This is a highly emotional election for us. We have invested time, energy, prayer, and everything else you can think of into this.

You are not alone. I have been saying he will get third in Iowa. In my heart I hope he gets first. I just can't say it outloud. We are all hoping for the same outcome but some of us can't set ourselves up for a major let-down. It's all good.

[manny]

In fairness I can understand threads like this - as the only genuine anti-war candidate, and with having 30yrs experience in congress, a record of consistency and honesty, in another league intellectually from the other candidates, willing to speak out on economics, setting fund-raising records and attracting crowds of thousands at his speeches, Ron Paul should be the winner by a landslide.

But - the media are against us. Often they won't even say Ron's name, sometimes outright lie, other times try to suggest he isn't a real republican etc - we've seen it all (and no doubt noticed it not happening to the "front-runners").

So that's why I think 3rd or 4th in Iowa is a good result. It shows RP is not a bottom rung guy with 1% or 2%.

The media will try to ignore him anyway but you can be sure a few more people will look him up and like what they see and we must hope it snowballs...

So yes I would like RP to win Iowa. I have no idea what will happen. But when people say they'll be pleased with 3rd they mean 3rd because it will get more media exposure. Then shoot for 1st or 2nd in NH. They want Ron to win all the same, but we must be realistic and build this piece by piece.

Just my 0.02$

[SonicInfinity]

I understand. This is a highly emotional election for us. We have invested time, energy, prayer, and everything else you can think of into this.

You are not alone. I have been saying he will get third in Iowa. In my heart I hope he gets first. I just can't say it outloud. We are all hoping for the same outcome but some of us can't set ourselves up for a major let-down. It's all good.

Well yeah, exactly. If Ron Paul doesn't get 1st, it's not the end of the world, and we must continue our efforts to the highest extent, but still.

[rs3515]

they also love their subsidies and a lot of evangelical types there too. We'll do better when we get to New Hampshire, so keep the faith brother.

Spot on about Iowa. However we need to be careful about NH. The one major advantage for Ron Paul in Iowa is voter turnout, which is typically 6-10%. In New Hampshire, usually 40-50% vote in the primaries. The message plays much, much better in NH, but voter turnout can make things more challenging.

[deedles]

Why not get pissed off at something more serious, like, for example, reading a multiple-page thread and feeling the need to create your own thread to call more, undue attention to your own opinion. :rolleyes:


ditto that.

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

In my heart I hope he gets first. I just can't say it outloud.

But that is REAL feeling that people you come into contact with want to feel as well.

If we are all canvassing with a 3rd place finish energy, people will sense that.

"Realistic" makes no sense when projecting out a future event.
That is what's ignorant in my mind.

[Shellshock1918]

I'm seriously getting pissed off at you all.

We should ALWAYS be aiming for first place. Without the spirit to win, WE AREN'T GOING TO WIN. If we be all "lol, let him get third place, he'll win some other time", we WON'T WIN some other time. We have to give 110% in EVERY state and at EVERY moment if we ever expect Ron Paul to be President.

Don't get mad at me if he does in fact place less than third. Don't get your hopes up.

[Laja]

the media generally think he'll come last so keep the expectations low because however high he places will be a surprise

Wrong! Keep the expectations as high as possible. The strings theory of physics points to the power of thought and how it can arrange the energy to manifest your desires. It's called the power of positive thinking.

Low expectations = Low results!

[walt]

I'm seriously getting pissed off at you all.

We should ALWAYS be aiming for first place. Without the spirit to win, WE AREN'T GOING TO WIN. If we be all "lol, let him get third place, he'll win some other time", we WON'T WIN some other time. We have to give 110% in EVERY state and at EVERY moment if we ever expect Ron Paul to be President.

there is such a thing as expectations, you want to exceed them.

[Josh]

I'm seriously getting pissed off at you all.

We should ALWAYS be aiming for first place. Without the spirit to win, WE AREN'T GOING TO WIN. If we be all "lol, let him get third place, he'll win some other time", we WON'T WIN some other time. We have to give 110% in EVERY state and at EVERY moment if we ever expect Ron Paul to be President.

i really hope he does better than 3rd or 4th but talking to people here in iowa i predict 3rd. that's just an honest prediction and has nothing to do with me not giving "110%"

[jillian]

Wrong! Keep the expectations as high as possible. The strings theory of physics points to the power of thought and how it can arrange the energy to manifest your desires. It's called the power of positive thinking.

Low expectations = Low results!

RON PAUL WILL PLACE FIRST IN IOWA. RON PAUL WILL PLACE FIRST IN IOWA.
RON PAUL WILL PLACE FIRST IN IOWA. RON PAUL WILL PLACE FIRST IN IOWA.

Better? :D

[Mr. White]

Ron Paul will get 1st place unless vote fraud
.

I've got no problem with being concerned about fraud, but wow. You're delusional.

[missm]

Ron Paul Wins First Place! I Feel It! I Believe It!

[werdd]

Iowa is a caucus, that entails a long and lengthy process that only the most energetic of supporters will likely attend.

Ron Paul has the most energetic fanbase, and we will have a great turnout no doubt.

There are a number of things these polls cant predict, namely TURNOUT, and YOUNG Republicans, who have never voted before. Also known as "Unlikely caucus goers'

I dont know about you guys, but until Ron Paul came around, i was an unlikely voter, and i beleive that to be the status quo among the broader spectrum of our movement.

Now also take into account that last time, only about 100K people turned out to caucus in Iowa. The turnout is projected to be smaller this year. We only need about 30k votes to win this thing. This is possible, and i beleive we can do it.

Sadly im down here in Texas, but i wish all of you Iowans the best of luck, and bring a friend or a family member, keep your hopes up because reguardless of what the experts are telling you, the odd's ARE in our favor.

For these reasons i think it is counter-productive to undercut our man and his supporters in Iowa by saying, "we might get 3rd".

Shoot for the sky, its in our reach.

[greendiseaser]

My mantra for a decade of schooling:
Set the bar REAL LOW
and smash the expectations.

You barge into class actin' all smart and shoutin out the right answer everytime hands go up, the teacher grades your paper "subjectively" and gives some C- student an A on their paper for "really trying" and gives you a damned C+ for "a good paper, but you can do better."

Come in acting like you don't give a snuff, and lay low,
break out that SAME paper and SHIZAM! A+ and you are the new teachers pet.
:D

Ok.
so MAYBE that doesn't apply to politics.
lol.

[dspectre]

I believe in the idea "Expect the worst and hope for the best."

However, outside of people on the ground in IA, it seems like this third place is based upon polls. And at this point if you believe in polls, it's kind of like believing in the tooth fairy. McCain magically surges above Paul because of those great newspaper endorsements. Right.

I think the reality is that no one really knows what is going to happen.

I don't know where this idea of 3rd was certain, but I sure hope it isn't a self fulfilling prophecy.

[voytechs]

Sonic -- this is IOWA we're talkin' about here, not the ultimate nomination. Don't be discouraged if he doesn't win Iowa. It wouldn't be the first time the eventual nominee lost there. Yes, there are some liberty lovers there, but they also love their subsidies and a lot of evangelical types there too. We'll do better when we get to New Hampshire, so keep the faith brother. [irony intended]

http://static.flickr.com/34/72672595_df7efcf5db.jpg

That is one square peg.

[smartguy911]

I am more worried about voter fraud

[thoughtbombing]

there is such a thing as expectations, you want to exceed them.

you can't exceed first place, or I'd expect better.

[scooter]

I don't think hoping for 3rd is such a bad thing. We're going up against the entire establishment here that is giving us NO credit. If we pull 3rd just from the grassroots efforts, then it will be a springboard into later primaries where it will be much more important to get 1st.

All we need from these early ones is to get enough support to force the MSM to pay attention to Paul as a legitimate candidate. 3rd in Iowa and 2nd or better in NH will do that.

3rd in Iowa is a victory, not people being negative.

[Cardinal Red]

I'm seriously getting pissed off at you all.

We should ALWAYS be aiming for first place. Without the spirit to win, WE AREN'T GOING TO WIN. If we be all "lol, let him get third place, he'll win some other time", we WON'T WIN some other time. We have to give 110% in EVERY state and at EVERY moment if we ever expect Ron Paul to be President.

Everyone is trying to get every vote they can. Everyone is aiming for first place. There is a difference between aiming and getting. As a person who has watched elections from the inside closely for two decades I can say without exaggeration that if RP won the Iowa caucuses it would be the biggest election shocker I have witnessed in my adult lifetime. What the realists are trying to do is to make sure that if we finish in third or fourth, both of which would be considered excellent showings by everyone in the mainstream media and which would reconfrim Ron Paul for even the MSM as a first tier candidate, that the grassroots isn't acting disappointed and talking down that result.

Even more important, I'm trying to make sure that we don't lose the 1/3 of people on this forum who think we are going to be in 1st/2nd to discouragement when in all likelihood we go lower than that. We need all of the volunteers and support that we can get. And even more important than that, I want to make sure that if we don't win, people aren't coming up with stupid conspiracy theories about vote fraud that are off message and totally unproductive.

Understand, the media will treat third in Iowa as an OUTSTANDING result for RP. Fourth will be considered a very good result. Lets make sure that when we get a "victory" like this, we treat it that way, rather than a defeat because out expecations were not realistic.

[austin4paul]

That is one square peg.

Actually, we may all be underestimating the support in Iowa. I'm a little surprised myself, but one of the UT students who was canvassing up there just sent me this updated photo. Apparently, these guys ARE Ron Paul supporters and that's a pack of slim jims there under his arm! All their signs were apparently loaded in the car for a sign wave when that first photo was taken. <grin>

http://www.freewebs.com/austinteaparty/iowarev.jpg

[dspectre]

Everyone is trying to get every vote they can. Everyone is aiming for first place. There is a difference between aiming and getting. As a person who has watched elections from the inside closely for two decades I can say without exaggeration that if RP won the Iowa caucuses it would be the biggest election shocker I have witnessed in my adult lifetime. What the realists are trying to do is to make sure that if we finish in third or fourth, both of which would be considered excellent showings by everyone in the mainstream media and which would reconfrim Ron Paul for even the MSM as a first tier candidate, that the grassroots isn't acting disappointed and talking down that result.

Even more important, I'm trying to make sure that we don't lose the 1/3 of people on this forum who think we are going to be in 1st/2nd to discouragement when in all likelihood we go lower than that. We need all of the volunteers and support that we can get. And even more important than that, I want to make sure that if we don't win, people aren't coming up with stupid conspiracy theories about vote fraud that are off message and totally unproductive.

Understand, the media will treat third in Iowa as an OUTSTANDING result for RP. Fourth will be considered a very good result. Lets make sure that when we get a "victory" like this, we treat it that way, rather than a defeat because out expecations were not realistic.

That's the problem you people don't get. If he gets 3rd they will go on as usual and ignore him. They will act like it is a fluke and doesn't mean anything. Or some extremists hijacked the election at best.

If you honestly think he will get third that is one thing, but putting credence into the old media propaganda machine is not really justified.

After all of the evidence people still want to take some weird belief in the old media in the name of conformity. It gets a little tiring in my opinion.

[Cardinal Red]

That's the problem you people don't get. If he gets 3rd they will go on as usual and ignore him. They will act like it is a fluke and doesn't mean anything. Or some extremists hijacked the election at best.

If you honestly think he will get third that is one thing, but putting credence into the old media propaganda machine is not really justified.

After all of the evidence people still want to take some weird belief in the old media in the name of conformity. It gets a little tiring in my opinion.


The Media loves a winner. It is that simple. The media believes in polls, even if you don't. If we poll third, we will be taken fully seriously. Yes we do have enemies in the MSM, yes, we are against the establishment and that does make it harder for us-- Harder, but not impossible. No one is suggesting we rely on the MSM-- We are suggesting that we use the MSM when we can do so to our advantage. The vast majority of the media are just not-that-brigtht people trying to do their jobs and follow the latest trend. I want to make sure that trend is Ron Paul. :)

[UtahApocalypse]

Under-promise, over-deliver. :D

The most important person we can beat tomorrow is Mr. Expectations

[nc4rp]

think of it in terms of a 9 million dollar goal for 4th quarter...

[curtisag]

You don't get it.

#1:

Ron Paul's official campaign strategy is NOT to win Iowa. He doesn't want what happened to Buchanan to happen again. He wants to stay under the radar and nail them because of the accelerated primary schedule. There won't be enough time to bring him down.

#2:

Our predictions are not going to affect anything. The conventional wisdom among experts is already that Ron Paul is going to do better than expected (IE 3rd or 4th). If we predict 1st, then that raises expectations, and hurts us if we fall short. Whereas if we do not aim high, we get more media exposure due to the shock factor of getting 3rd.

#3:

There's nothing wrong about being realistic. The polls are not perfect, but they are an indicator. Ron Paul will likely get around 18-22% of the vote in Iowa based on the latest data. This prediction is in line with past performance of Buchanan and Keyes in which they almost doubled their polling numbers. In order to win we would have to more than triple our polling numbers, and that's not likely. If I'm wrong I'll be happy to say so, but you are setting yourself up for disappointment, just like the people that predicted a $10 million tea party (one person said $100 million was possible).

[Ninja Homer]

But that is REAL feeling that people you come into contact with want to feel as well.

If we are all canvassing with a 3rd place finish energy, people will sense that.

"Realistic" makes no sense when projecting out a future event.
That is what's ignorant in my mind.


Wrong! Keep the expectations as high as possible. The strings theory of physics points to the power of thought and how it can arrange the energy to manifest your desires. It's called the power of positive thinking.

Low expectations = Low results!

I agree with both of you!

The goal and attitude should be to win every state. This "set expectations low" thing is BS. The media sets expectations for the general public, and every time we beat those expectations it's a win. However, as Ron Paul supporters, we need to set our goals and expectations higher, and then work to meet those goals and expectations. Setting expectations high here in RPF in no way hurts the campaign.

I think the media has set expectations for Ron Paul to be in 5th place in Iowa. Anything above that will get some attention.

If he places 4th, he did better than 2 "top-tier" candidates. It would get some air time, but would probably be more about how bad those 2 candidates did and what they did wrong than how well Ron Paul did.

If he places 3rd, he is way above expectations, and this would be considered a win by many people. From this article (http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080102/pl_bloomberg/ayzy0fixeo2u) on the front page of Yahoo News:
"If McCain comes in third, then he'll be the winner of the Iowa caucuses,'' said Steffen Schmidt, a political science professor at Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa.
If 3rd place is a win for McCain, then it's an even bigger win for Ron Paul.

If he gets 2nd, or even if he gets 3rd but gets close to 2nd, it will be a gigantic story. Romney and Huckabee have given up a year of their lives campaigning in Iowa. To beat either one of them would be a huge coup.

If he gets 1st, everybody might as well start calling him President Paul now. No "scientific poll" will ever be trusted again. The media will no longer be trusted at all by the general public. Ron Paul will win every other state.

I really do believe Ron Paul can get 1st in Iowa. Looking at the numbers, it's pretty easy to see how it can happen.
If Huckabee is polling at 32%, and 10% of those people make it to caucus, that's 3.2% of the total voting pool.
If Romney is polling at 26%, and 10% of those people make it to caucus, that's 2.6% of the total voting pool.
If Ron Paul is polling at 9%, and 50% of those people make it to caucus, that's 4.5% of the total voting pool.

Ron Paul wins simply because his supporters care enough to go out for a few hours to vote for him. Personally, I think 50% is minimum, but it will probably be more like 85%.

[SeanEdwards]

Forecast says it's going to be cold in Iowa tomorrow. Real cold.

[bobbysheldon]

I am so watching the Hannity and Colmes show for the first time in years when Paul pwns in Iowa. Sweet delicious Hannity tears... ah victory.

We've been getting a lot of e-mails from out there saying that some...online communities have been messin' with us...there's no way he won that poll!

[reduen]

Well in my opinion, if our good Dr. Paul does not take at least 3rd in Iowa and 1st in NH it is over folks..

I was there when we took 5th in the straw poll in Iowa and can tell you that I have never been so dissapointed in my life. If we do not take at least 3rd or better we are doomed..

I am so very proud of our grassroots and believe we all deserve one heck of a pat on the back for our work so far but I am not so sure that the "official campain" was in this thing to win from the beginning.

Peace to all here and may God be with us tomorrow. I know that I will be praying hard anyway..

[Cardinal Red]

Well in my opinion, if our good Dr. Paul does not take at least 3rd in Iowa and 1st in NH it is over folks..

I was there when we took 5th in the straw poll in Iowa and can tell you that I have never been so dissapointed in my life. If we do not take at least 3rd or better we are doomed..

I am so very proud of our grassroots and believe we all deserve one heck of a pat on the back for our work so far but I am not so sure that the "official campain" was in this thing to win from the beginning.

Peace to all here and may God be with us tomorrow. I know that I will be praying hard anyway..

No need to be that negative. The Iowa straw poll didn't have Thompson, McCain, or Giuliani competing seriously. Finishing behind Tancredo was disappointing. We are playing in much bigger territory now. Trust me, as long as we break double digits and do no worse than a strong 5th (or ideally fourth) we will have the momentum we need to continue well into the primary season.

[UtahApocalypse]

Just saw a stat on MSNBC that 3 times in the past the 3rd place winner became the nominee :D

[Laja]

RON PAUL WILL PLACE FIRST IN IOWA. RON PAUL WILL PLACE FIRST IN IOWA.
RON PAUL WILL PLACE FIRST IN IOWA. RON PAUL WILL PLACE FIRST IN IOWA.

Better? :D

Much better! You get an "A" for being a quick study! :D

[jointhefightforfreedom]

He will make 1st everywhere if we can get awareness amongst all the supporters on this thread

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=71548

[Laja]

I agree with both of you!

The goal and attitude should be to win every state. This "set expectations low" thing is BS. The media sets expectations for the general public, and every time we beat those expectations it's a win. However, as Ron Paul supporters, we need to set our goals and expectations higher, and then work to meet those goals and expectations. Setting expectations high here in RPF in no way hurts the campaign.



Rock on, Ninja Homer! Set 'em high!