2000 Iowa Republican caucus

[Johnnybags]

86,000? So lets say 100,000 show up, is it remotely possible we only get 10,000 patriots in Iowa? I gotta believe its at least double that. We for sure have the most motivated to actually go. I am looking for a big surprise.





With 2,083 of Iowa's 2,131 precincts or 98 percent reporting, the results were considered final. Texas Gov. George W. Bush claimed a record victory with 41 percent, followed by publisher Steve Forbes with 30 percent. Commentator Alan Keyes took third with a surprising 14 percent. Trailing behind the leaders were Gary Bauer with 9 percent, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., with 5 percent and Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, with 1 percent.

Kayne Robinson, Iowa Republican Party chairman, said, "We've had a great turnout tonight." More than 86,000 Iowans participated in the 2000 Republican caucuses.

[CavortingChicken]

do you really think 100k will even show?

[Richie]

The weather on caucus day is going to be nasty cold, and I doubt that the other candidates supporters are motivated enough to endure it.

[Johnnybags]

turnout. But still, is it that hard to get 20,000 votes or more in a whole state? I am hopeful we have the motivation to get the voters out with passion, the typical Paul supporter would show up to vote if FAUX News girlie anchors were on TV naked all day.

[gpickett00]

I did a rough estimation trying to figure out how many meetup members there are in Iowa. So far: Des Moines - 170
Newton & Jasper County - 13
Wapello County -12
South Central - 11 (could be duplicates)
Northern - 19

Lets assume for margin of inaccuracy that we have 300 Meetup members in Iowa. If everyone in a meetup group has already convinced 10 people to vote for sure, thats only 3,000 out of 100,000 voting at the caucuses. Just something to think about

[yongrel]

I think we'll see maybe 70k turnout if the weather is good. Outside of Ron Paul, the race isn't that exciting and the candidates are very compelling. The Democrat turnout is gonna dwarf the Republicans.

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

Alan Keys got 14 percent...

any sources showing what he was polling leading up to the caucus?

[itsnobody]

CSPAN estimate says 85,000 will show up...

We need 35,000 votes total to win

There's 575,000 registered Republicans
470,000 registered Independents

[peacemonger]

Alan Keys got 14 percent...

any sources showing what he was polling leading up to the caucus?

I did a google search yesterday and found the Desmoines Register poll just before that 2000 caucus. Keyes was polling at 8%. He almost doubled that number because his supporters were dedicated.

If we look at the latest DMRegister poll which has Paul at 11% (not the 9% average they recently reported) and we expect all of our people to show up, then there is no reason why we can't score somewhere in the mid 20's or higher.

Consider that a reporter on CNN said today that half of the voters at a Romney meeting today left the meeting still undecided. They may have reported his name on the telephone polls but they are not going to show up.

If Alan Keyes can double his numbers, we should be able to triple ours. 2nd or 1st place is a real possibility.

[BrianH]

I did a rough estimation trying to figure out how many meetup members there are in Iowa. So far: Des Moines - 170
Newton & Jasper County - 13
Wapello County -12
South Central - 11 (could be duplicates)
Northern - 19

Lets assume for margin of inaccuracy that we have 300 Meetup members in Iowa. If everyone in a meetup group has already convinced 10 people to vote for sure, thats only 3,000 out of 100,000 voting at the caucuses. Just something to think about

Add to that:
Iowa City 138
Cedar Rapids 108
Burlington/Mt Pleasant 24
Fairfield 52

[mwkaufman]

Alan Keys got 14 percent...

any sources showing what he was polling leading up to the caucus?

8%, tied with John McCain.

Keyes got 14%, McCain got 5%. Bauer who had 6% in the polls, got 8%.

[Perry]

I did a rough estimation trying to figure out how many meetup members there are in Iowa. So far: Des Moines - 170
Newton & Jasper County - 13
Wapello County -12
South Central - 11 (could be duplicates)
Northern - 19

Lets assume for margin of inaccuracy that we have 300 Meetup members in Iowa. If everyone in a meetup group has already convinced 10 people to vote for sure, thats only 3,000 out of 100,000 voting at the caucuses. Just something to think about

You think we'll only get twice as many votes as we did at the Ames straw poll? :D
Not only is your math bad but I think you are a cynic. Ames was months ago before anyone even knew who Ron Paul was, people had to pay to vote and it was much less important than an election. Now we've spent millions in Iowa and have had probably over a thousand people beating the streets in Iowa for the past four months(meetup and headquarters are not the only ones running a Paul campaign) and have countless major public appearances.
As a minimum I say we get 15,000 votes in Iowa. MINIMUM!
That means if you had a crowd of 200 people in Iowa you would need only one person to show up and vote for Ron Paul.

[Paulitician]

Can't wait. I'm very optimistic about our chances. If Ron Paul is doing that well in mainstream Republican polls, then we can definitely get 3rd place, if not 2nd, because of the first time voters, the independents and even some democrats. I think turn out will be 3x more than what the polls are telling us (like at the Ames straw poll), so 25k-30k is very possible. I don't think we'll win--that will be insane if we did--Huckabee is definitely going to win, but if that many people turn out to vote for RP I'll consider it a win. Defintely a big F U to the establishment which wants to keep us out of the debate in NH.

[Perry]

Can't wait. I'm very optimistic about our chances. If Ron Paul is doing that well in mainstream Republican polls, then we can definitely get 3rd place, if not 2nd, because of the first time voters, the independents and even some democrats. I think turn out will be 3x more than what the polls are telling us (like at the Ames straw poll), so 25k-30k is very possible. I don't think we'll win--that will be insane if we did--Huckabee is definitely going to win, but if that many people turn out to vote for RP I'll consider it a win. Defintely a big F U to the establishment which wants to keep us out of the debate in NH.

25k is a first place finish this year not second or third.:)

[Ron Paul Fan]

The weather on caucus day is going to be nasty cold, and I doubt that the other candidates supporters are motivated enough to endure it.

That's for sure! It's currently 2 degrees where I live! Winds at 22 mph. Tomorrow has a forecast high of 10 degrees, low 1 degrees! Thursday is currently forecast to be warmer though. 24 degrees high, 19 degrees low. Still windy at 21 mph. Hopefully it's cold Thursday night as well! I'm not sure how we'll do. I'm hoping for 3rd as it seems to be up for grabs. I think if we beat McCain, Giuliani, and Thompson heading into NH, it will be a big momentum boost.

[free.alive]

You mean there are barely 200 meetup members in all of Iowa!!

That's depressing.

Based on the enthusiasm we see in WA, however, that could easily 1 percent of supporters.

to get 20,000+ votes in Iowa would guarantee third, I imagine.

[tsetsefly]

Add to that:
Iowa City 138
Cedar Rapids 108
Burlington/Mt Pleasant 24
Fairfield 52

some of those are duplicates...

[tsetsefly]

You mean there are barely 200 meetup members in all of Iowa!!

That's depressing.

Based on the enthusiasm we see in WA, however, that could easily 1 percent of supporters.

to get 20,000+ votes in Iowa would guarantee third, I imagine.

Iowa is a pro subsidies, pro big government state, Iowa republicans still support the Iraq war...

This state, imo is one of the worse for RP, if he could get 3rd here it woudl be huge...

[Eric21ND]

The weather on caucus day is going to be nasty cold, and I doubt that the other candidates supporters are motivated enough to endure it.

Stop with the weather stuff please. :rolleyes: It's going to be 35 degrees most of the day, that is a heat wave here in the midwest. Seriously I don't need a coat in that weather.

[Paulitician]

Iowa is a pro subsidies, pro big government state, Iowa republicans still support the Iraq war...

This state, imo is one of the worse for RP, if he could get 3rd here it woudl be huge...
Yet he is polling higher there than in NH...

Perry, you're probably right. Whatever the turn out is, I just hope it is no less than 3rd place.

[gpickett00]

You think we'll only get twice as many votes as we did at the Ames straw poll? :D
Not only is your math bad but I think you are a cynic. Ames was months ago before anyone even knew who Ron Paul was, people had to pay to vote and it was much less important than an election. Now we've spent millions in Iowa and have had probably over a thousand people beating the streets in Iowa for the past four months(meetup and headquarters are not the only ones running a Paul campaign) and have countless major public appearances.
As a minimum I say we get 15,000 votes in Iowa. MINIMUM!
That means if you had a crowd of 200 people in Iowa you would need only one person to show up and vote for Ron Paul.

I was trying to gauge how many meetup members there were in Iowa but I didnt know major cities to type in. Thanks for the additions. Also the fact that we had 1305 votes in the straw poll way back in August! I really think we are going to get top 3

[gpickett00]

Stop with the weather stuff please. :rolleyes: It's going to be 35 degrees most of the day, that is a heat wave here in the midwest. Seriously I don't need a coat in that weather.

You aren't right. Look at the hour by hour forecast: http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vacationplanner/hourbyhour/USIA0231?begHour=7&begDay=3

In addition, by Thursday it will have been really cold in the days leading up to it and snow will still be on the ground. Also you have to factor in the wind.

[nc4rp]

George Washington's troops marched on in snow and ice with no boots, Paul supporters are of the same calibre.

[Perry]

George Washington's troops marched on in snow and ice with no boots, Paul supporters are of the same calibre.

You forgot to say that it was up hill both ways. :D

[Goldwater Conservative]

Iowa republicans still support the Iraq war...

I think they're 50-40 against it, according to the traditional polls.

[curtisag]

You all are forgetting one very important factor. There's a huge football game on the night of the caucus. This will draw people away from the caucus and help us even moreso than the weather, but both combined are a very powerful combination and disincentive to vote. Plus if Keyes got 14% in the state, you KNOW we're going to do better than Keyes. He is like a total nobody, always has been.

[RP=RonPaul=RedPill]

Orange Bowl!! Woohoo!!

[icon124]

oh yea i forgot about that game....thank you college football!
if we had 1305 ppl vote in the straws in AUGUST....and thats ppl who are super dedicated...imagine the dedication thursday night....i predict somewhere around 20-25 percent with a second or first place finish

[priest_of_syrinx]

The weather on caucus day is going to be nasty cold, and I doubt that the other candidates supporters are motivated enough to endure it.

20-30 is average, not nasty cold.

[Eric21ND]

You aren't right. Look at the hour by hour forecast: http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vacationplanner/hourbyhour/USIA0231?begHour=7&begDay=3

In addition, by Thursday it will have been really cold in the days leading up to it and snow will still be on the ground. Also you have to factor in the wind.

Upper 20's most of the day. You have to remember "really cold" to you down in Florida isn't even cold to people up here. When we hit -20 or -30 for the high temp then we grab our coats.

The only way weather will effect the turn out is if there is a full out blizzard.

[Badger Paul]

The number of Iowa GOP caucus goers has gone down since 1988 when they drew over 100,000 voters. In 2000 they drew 87,000 I predict becaue of aging of the party membership plus lack of enthusiasm about the candidates (outside of RP of course) a turnout of between 75,000-80,000.

[bbachtung]

The Ron Paul Iowa page tells people to be there by 6:30 p.m. and to bring extra voter registration forms in case anyone needs them to register or re-register as a Republican.

Bring your friends and family.

25,000 will be enough for first place.

[Xonox]

If there are over 100,000 people there I would imagine it would be in no small part because of RP supporters.

[ionlyknowy]

86,000? So lets say 100,000 show up, is it remotely possible we only get 10,000 patriots in Iowa? I gotta believe its at least double that. We for sure have the most motivated to actually go. I am looking for a big surprise.





With 2,083 of Iowa's 2,131 precincts or 98 percent reporting, the results were considered final. Texas Gov. George W. Bush claimed a record victory with 41 percent, followed by publisher Steve Forbes with 30 percent. Commentator Alan Keyes took third with a surprising 14 percent. Trailing behind the leaders were Gary Bauer with 9 percent, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., with 5 percent and Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, with 1 percent.

Kayne Robinson, Iowa Republican Party chairman, said, "We've had a great turnout tonight." More than 86,000 Iowans participated in the 2000 Republican caucuses.

find out what the weather was like on that day... then we can see maybe if that affected anything.