Ron Paul polling high with Iowa independents - Digg

[j6p]

http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Latest_Iowa_MSM_Poll

[Geronimo]

Dugg

[FreedomLover]

It means they polled 700 people describing themselves as "republicans" and 100 "independents"

That's 12.5% of all caucus goers self-describing as "independents," or that's what that poll assumes to be the final tally.

I'm not sure if that's going to end up being accurate, but it probably will. A cnn exit poll for the 2000 primaries had it at 15% of caucus goers being "independent"

[Joel High]

Don't forget to throw in a few democrats to that mix.

[paulitics]

Ron Paul will have just as many independents as republicans voting. I think this is the key here, and partly explains the dichotomy between phone polls and online. The independent voter is usually apathetic in primaries. This year is an anomoly and independents should come out in droves for RP due to his unique positions.

[rational thinker]

Dugg

[Naraku]

Holy shit! Look at this graph. Look at the Polling Trend area and progress over the four days:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/assets/jpg/m0101republicanResource.jpg

[shadow26]

Holy shit! Look at this graph. Look at the Polling Trend area and progress over the four days:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/assets/jpg/m0101republicanResource.jpg

Weather showing windy on the third, with the wind chill in the low to mid teens. Not the kind of weather that encourages people who are lukewarm about their candidates to head to the polls...

[wgadget]

Um, would 11% be considered "double-digits?"

Heh.

[voytechs]

Um, would 11% be considered "double-digits?"

Heh.


Thats 16% with independents. Someone on LRC noticed that since it all averaged out to 9%, that means that they polled very very few independence on purpose to minimize that over all total.

[Naraku]

Thats 16% with independents.

Wgadget's referring to the last two day average which shows 11%. Speaking of which support among independents must be even larger in that area. Maybe 18% or even 20%.

[cheese]

notice how they round (8+10+11)/3 = 9.67% down to 9%.

[stevedasbach]

notice how they round (8+10+11)/3 = 9.67% down to 9%.

Each of those numbers is rounded. It's not hard to come up with values that work.

Ex: (7.6% + 9.6% + 10.7%)/3 = 9.3% which rounds to 9%