PubliusPublicola
01-01-2008, 08:27 AM
I'm less interested in "gutt" reactions than analysis from people familiar with how this stuff really works in terms of methods and demographics.
I saw a breakdown of the 2004 primary by age groups (i forget where, tho).
Question? Anybody have current voter demographic data for Iowa?
I'd like to know age demographics at the least, and voter turnout.
New Hampshire - 2004 primary - voter turnout by age
18-29 14%
30-44 30%
45-64 45%
65+ 11%
Let's assume that's the "traditional" breakdown. That means most primary voters are over 45.
Also, assuming the GOP primary will have turn-out on par with tradition... that's perhaps 230-250k people. That's apparently a fairly high portion of registered republicans, but I'm not sure the percent.
ANYWAYS!!!! :D
Question: What's Paul's support demographic?
Is this documented in real data? Is there a breakdown for both Iowa and New Hampshire? How many potential college students, for example?
If i were a pollster, I'd likely be using methods that stick closely to tradition. However, the risk is obviously that traditions break and you will miss non-traditional demographic shifts (i.e. a surge in voters from a specific demographic).
If Paul's got even 10,000 people outside the usual demographics, this could obviously not show on the BEST polls. More specifically, if Paul has huge support among people who traditionally do not participate or who traditionally remain undecided... then this can imply a huge "blind spot."
Yes, i know I'm not the first to point this out. :D
Question: Has anybody looked at the mainstream polls to determine which ones better capture Paul's documented demographic?
I have to assume somebody like Zogby grasps that polls sometimes need to be tested on the fly, and that he may actually have done some smaller "test" samples to see if there is significant trends among different demographics. Anybody know about such surveys from the big pollsters?
I'm obviously trying to understand how far off the polls could really be, without going with "gutt" feelings.
I saw a breakdown of the 2004 primary by age groups (i forget where, tho).
Question? Anybody have current voter demographic data for Iowa?
I'd like to know age demographics at the least, and voter turnout.
New Hampshire - 2004 primary - voter turnout by age
18-29 14%
30-44 30%
45-64 45%
65+ 11%
Let's assume that's the "traditional" breakdown. That means most primary voters are over 45.
Also, assuming the GOP primary will have turn-out on par with tradition... that's perhaps 230-250k people. That's apparently a fairly high portion of registered republicans, but I'm not sure the percent.
ANYWAYS!!!! :D
Question: What's Paul's support demographic?
Is this documented in real data? Is there a breakdown for both Iowa and New Hampshire? How many potential college students, for example?
If i were a pollster, I'd likely be using methods that stick closely to tradition. However, the risk is obviously that traditions break and you will miss non-traditional demographic shifts (i.e. a surge in voters from a specific demographic).
If Paul's got even 10,000 people outside the usual demographics, this could obviously not show on the BEST polls. More specifically, if Paul has huge support among people who traditionally do not participate or who traditionally remain undecided... then this can imply a huge "blind spot."
Yes, i know I'm not the first to point this out. :D
Question: Has anybody looked at the mainstream polls to determine which ones better capture Paul's documented demographic?
I have to assume somebody like Zogby grasps that polls sometimes need to be tested on the fly, and that he may actually have done some smaller "test" samples to see if there is significant trends among different demographics. Anybody know about such surveys from the big pollsters?
I'm obviously trying to understand how far off the polls could really be, without going with "gutt" feelings.