Dean in 2003 vs. Paul in 2007

[Zydeco]

From a 2004 Wired magazine article (emphasis added):

"We fell into this by accident," Dean admits. "I wish I could tell you we were smart enough to figure this out. But the community taught us. They seized the initiative through Meetup. They built our organization for us before we had an organization."

Meetup is a Web tool for forming social groups. In early 2003, Dean himself was lured to an early New York City meetup where he found more than 300 enthusiastic supporters waiting to greet him. Meetup quickly became the engine of Dean's Internet campaign. Back then, the leading group on the site was a club for witches. Zephyr Teachout, Dean's director of Internet outreach, describes sitting across from campaign manager Joe Trippi in the early weeks and hitting Refresh again and again on her Web browser. "I was obsessed with beating Witches," she says. "Witches had 15,000 members, and we had 3,000. I wanted first place."

Three thousand is a small number. But all campaigns depend on a feedback loop, and 3,000 passionate supporters who are connected via the Internet are influential in a way that an equivalent crowd would never be if you had to gather it via direct mail or a telephone survey. Dean's Meetup members quickly recruited others, and by late March Dean had beaten Witches. Growth followed an exponential curve; Dean's new supporters contributed money, his piles of money won respect from the media, and media attention pushed Meetup numbers higher. Most of the Democratic candidates who polled in the low single digits a year ago still poll in the low single digits. They never gained momentum. Dean's early use of Meetup lowered the feedback threshold, just as a good supply of kindling makes it easier to light a fire. In the third quarter of 2003, Dean raised nearly $15 million - most of it in small donations - setting a one-quarter record for a Democratic candidate in a presidential race.

By mid-November, the Howard Dean group on Meetup would have more than 140,000 members..."

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.01/dean.html

I think we're on our way to top that. Naturally we don't want Paul's campaign to end the way Dean's did, but with Dean there was no there there, no big ideas to justify all the media and money. Ron Paul doesn't have that problem.

[beermotor]

Yeah I was curious about how we compared, somebody said were quite a bit behind Dean. I think after the next debate we'll get another huge boost. And of course winning the straw poll in IA. This is going to be a critical phase, but if we don't break out to #1, we're still in good shape as long as we're in the top 3.

[Zydeco]

Yeah Beer, I should clarify that I doubt we'll top 140,000 meetup members by mid-November, but Dean's campaign started much earlier than Paul's did, and Dean received vats of fawning ink from the MSM almost immediately.

In other words, I disagree with the article's take that Dean had to earn the MSM's respect, he was the favored candidate of a big chunk of them early on.

[Man from La Mancha]

With the right radio campaign and flooding the USA in signs I think we can far surpass those marks.

[beermotor]

I don't know; I will say this is about a million times bigger than I thought it would be. I imagined myself and about 100 other dedicated blogwarriors roaming the net and arguing with folks, and maybe a couple meetups in the larger cities. I expected more of a symbolic campaign. But this has gotten huge, fast. So, we very well could beat Dean's numbers. Remember, in almost all of those "scientific" polls, there's a very large portion of undecideds (15-20% almost). That number alone is very, very encouraging.

The fact that the frontrunners are raising so little compared to the Democrats is also very encouraging. It means that republicans are holding their cash until they find someone they like ... THAT is our target audience for The Message (tm).

[DeadheadForPaul]

I don't know; I will say this is about a million times bigger than I thought it would be. I imagined myself and about 100 other dedicated blogwarriors roaming the net and arguing with folks, and maybe a couple meetups in the larger cities. I expected more of a symbolic campaign. But this has gotten huge, fast. So, we very well could beat Dean's numbers. Remember, in almost all of those "scientific" polls, there's a very large portion of undecideds (15-20% almost). That number alone is very, very encouraging.

The fact that the frontrunners are raising so little compared to the Democrats is also very encouraging. It means that republicans are holding their cash until they find someone they like ... THAT is our target audience for The Message (tm).

Agreed

Most Republicans are still undecided, and I think the media how blown the Fred Thompson thing out of proportion...just like they did with both Joe Lieberman and Wesley Clark in 2003. Once people learn that Fred is antoher neo-con hack, he'll just further split that vote. I'm personally worried that Bloomberg may take away some of our votes if he throws his hat in the ring b/c he would be seen as a moderate anti-war candidate

[Slugg]

By mid-November, the Howard Dean group on Meetup would have more than 140,000 members..."



That's a daunting number...



I think we're on our way to top that.

I sure hope your right

[Zydeco]

But this has gotten huge, fast. So, we very well could beat Dean's numbers. Remember, in almost all of those "scientific" polls, there's a very large portion of undecideds (15-20% almost). That number alone is very, very encouraging.

I think the number of true undecideds is much larger, support for Romney, Giuliani, and Fred Thompson if he runs is probably pretty soft. I saw a recent stat that only 6% of primary voters had "definitely" decided on who to vote for.

The more I'm thinking about it, the more I think you're right -- we could catch Dean's numbers by mid-November. We'd need 1,000 new members a day, but jj's analysis shows we're at almost 500/day now, and doubling (or more) is very much within the realm of possibility given how this thing is going.

[BuddyRey]

Another thing to remember about the Dean campaign four years ago versus Ron Paul's campaign today; in 2003-4, the blogosphere boom hadn't hit full swing yet, and Meetup, YouTube, etc. weren't nearly as infused in the political process as they are today. Heck, even the MSM now has to acknowledge YouTube by allowing regular people to submit their own debate questions by video! The net has, seemingly overnight, usurped the mantle of public informer and vox populi that radio and television once enjoyed, before they were consolidated and sanitized "for our own good."

[DeadheadForPaul]

The average person does not even know who is running. I do a weekly trivia thing and one of the questions was "What potential Presidential candidate appeared on Jay Leno..." and only 2 teams (with 4-6 people each) out of 16 even knew that FRED THOMPSON was a potential candidate.

The average person only knows that McCain, Giuliani, Hillary, and Obama are running

We have ground to cover and hope is not lost. We are all political junkies and RP supporters. We forget that most people do not give a shit about politics

We can convert many of those out there! Most of the people being polled who support Giuliani, etc are the hardcore GOPers who we have no shot at winning. We can get the moderate GOP base (the average GOPer), democrats, moderates, and independents!

[beermotor]

The average person does not even know who is running. I do a weekly trivia thing and one of the questions was "What potential Presidential candidate appeared on Jay Leno..." and only 2 teams (with 4-6 people each) out of 16 even knew that FRED THOMPSON was a potential candidate.

The average person only knows that McCain, Giuliani, Hillary, and Obama are running

We have ground to cover and hope is not lost. We are all political junkies and RP supporters. We forget that most people do not give a shit about politics

We can convert many of those out there! Most of the people being polled who support Giuliani, etc are the hardcore GOPers who we have no shot at winning. We can get the moderate GOP base (the average GOPer), democrats, moderates, and independents!


This is the thing - I was one of those who didn't give a shit. Still don't, I guess, I mean it's in a horrible state. But what I do care about is getting people turned on to doing something about it... one person is nothing, a million people is VERY MUCH SOMETHING. 100 Million people is only a third of this country - and that's all it takes for revolution. I mean I guess realistically we only need about 80M, if you believe in the 80/20 rule.

I think the vast majority of those who don't give a shit about politics are really those who are smart enough to realize it's all a big money/power grab. Since Ron Paul is the Anti-Politician, it's a natural choice to get excited about. We have to reach out to them at the same time we're trying to pull people back from neoconservativism.

[paulitics]

I believe paul is around 10% of those who will vote in the republican primaries. There will be low voter turnout among the 3 headed monster Frudy Romson. An anti war republican will NOT vote for a prowar candidate. This is a sizeable amount.

Libertarians are not showing up in the polls, neither are young savy internet users. Paul will pull from the independent and democrat base as well, who are not being telephone polled.

I also think there is spin when these polls are conducted, that favor the three headed monster over "second tier candidates".