Last Demoines Register Poll: Paul up to 9%

[Micahyah]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEWS09/71231044

Huckabee 32% (+3)
Romney 26% (+2)
McCain 12% (+6)
Paul 9% (+2)
Thompson 9% (+4)
Giuliani 5% (-8)

[slamhead]

With the motivation factor of RP supporters...I am predicting 3rd

[mexicanpizza]

Giuliani 5%, that's like music to my eyes.

[Micahyah]

Giuliani 5%, that's like music to my eyes.

same here

[NCSURonPaulAddict]

McCain still polling above Paul?!? That's enough evidence to completely prove 100% that these polls are total BS.... Same with the huckster.

[Ron LOL]

With the motivation factor of RP supporters...I am predicting 3rd

Same here. A solid third for RP in Iowa. That idea is exciting to me. If Hillary can beat Obama, then I think we're set to take NH and SC!

[N13]

The margin of error puts RP in a theoretical THIRD place finish. That would be good enough at this point.

[Real_CaGeD]

Rense live talking RP.

http://www.rense.com/general57/notice.htm

[Alabama Supporter]

Hell Yes.

[Real_CaGeD]

The McCain "surge" is bullshit.
Ron Paul 17-20%

[derdy]

This is how McCain and Keyes were polling on Caucus eve in 2000


Sen. John McCain and conservative commentator Alan Keyes each receive 8 percent of the support in the poll.
source: http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/01/23/bushpoll.register/index.html


And this is how the vote turned out

Bush, George
35,384 41%
Forbes, Stev
26,338 30%
Keyes, Alan
12,329 14%
Bauer, Gary
7,367 9%
McCain, John
4,053 5%

source: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/PCC/Tabul.html

I have a feeling we'll have a performance more like Keyes than McCain :D

[Karsten]

Same here. A solid third for RP in Iowa. That idea is exciting to me. If Hillary can beat Obama, then I think we're set to take NH and SC!

What does Hillary have to do with us?

[stevedasbach]

Check out the trend data at the bottom of the page. Paul climbed from 8% to 10% to 11% over the four days. 9% was the average.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEWS09/71231042/0/iowapoll07

[peacemonger]

Compensating for cell phones, I would put Paul at 16%...

In 2000, Keyes was polling at 8% and actually got 14% of the vote (almost double). If we are at 16%, then I can't see why we can't get 32% of the vote.

This means, if we can get ALL of our people to show up ON TIME, then we can still get 1st place. Especially if some of Romney's negative ads against the Huskster keep some people at home.:)

[stefans]

What does Hillary have to do with us?

some people think if sen. clinton seems undefeatable more independents would vote in the republican primary.

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

McCain's Iowa numbers are enjoying a publicity bubble right now, but it's artificial just like the economic bubbles the Federal Reserve creates. :D

McCain's name is ringing a lot in people's ears, but that is not going to translate into people actually getting off their butts on a game day to go out in the cold and caucus for him. Ron Paul, on the other hand, has been slowly and steadily building up a solid base of support.

[stefans]

Compensating for cell phones, I would put Paul at 16%...


let's be serious, the cell phone line is a good talking point, but we have absolutely no idea if it's true. we'll see.

[Adamsa]

I'm hoping Ron is bringing the crowd who liked Forbes.

[mwkaufman]

McCain's support appeared to be fading during the course of the polling, which began last Sunday and ended on Friday. His tally at the end of the polling period was about half of what it was at the beginning.

The Arizona senator has passed up campaigning in Iowa and instead has concentrated on the New Hampshire primary, which follows the caucuses by a week.

So in the week before the caucus in 2000 McCain was polling at 15%, he ended up getting 5% of the vote. Expect the same in 08.

[peacemonger]

let's be serious, the cell phone line is a good talking point, but we have absolutely no idea if it's true. we'll see.

I've heard meetup group organizers say that something like 80% of their members primarily use cell phones. Even that guy Yepsen from the DMRegister said on FOX that he thinks Ron Paul's numbers are greater than reported in the polls.

[N13]

Check out the trend data at the bottom of the page. Paul climbed from 8% to 10% to 11% over the four days. 9% was the average.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEWS09/71231042/0/iowapoll07

Nice catch.

Ron Paul climbs to 11% in Poll.

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

Look at some of the crosstabs, they bode well:

* Ron Paul is 3rd place at 12% amongst 18-34 year olds, which are far more energized and likely to brave bad roads or cold weather to caucus for Paul
* Ron Paul is a clearcut 3rd place at 16% among Independents in Iowa, just 7% behind Romney amongst Independents
* Ron Paul is tied for 3rd place with Fred at 8% amongst "Fundamentalist Christians," some of the more politically active

McCain's numbers are artificially inflated -- we're grabbing third :D

[Real_CaGeD]

Take into acount Hucks "Dean moment" from today. I feel it is way worse than Deans yelp.

[Flirple]

McCain still polling above Paul?!? That's enough evidence to completely prove 100% that these polls are total BS.... Same with the huckster.

Nonsense. McCain is for real. Take him seriously. He is our competition for third in Iowa and he is getting tons of momentum right now from free media. If we could edge him out in Iowa it would be impossible to overstate the significance then for NH where we are competing with McCain for independent votes. McCain unfortunately is on the upward trajectory and might even be able to get 2nd. in Iowa if his rate of poll increase continues in the next few days.

[kushaze]

I think anything above 15% would be a victory and should guarantee at least 3rd place.

[Ron Paul Fan]

Yes, the McCain-Paul battle for 3rd in Iowa is HUGE heading into New Hampshire! If Paul gets it, people will be shocked that he did so well and was able to beat McCain, Giuliani, AND Thompson. If McCain gets it, it will be seen as a success for a state in which he did poorly in 2000 and didn't do a whole lot of advertising or campaigning, heading into NH. Both are coveting independents in NH and both need the momentum heading into that state because Huckabee won't do well there, Thompson tom TANCredoed in NH, and Giuliani is free falling. We need to beat McCain in Iowa and finish at least 3rd there! We must do it!

[rory096]

McCain's actually surging in Iowa; that's why he's doing well. He's no longer dead.

[bbachtung]

Look at the margin between Forbes and Bush in 2000 just before the caucuses. Although Bush remained within 2% of the 43% in the poll (getting 41% on caucus night), his 23% point lead over Forbes in the poll was halved on caucus night.

[Myerz]

I thought he was @ 10%

[paulitics]

This is what I think. McCain won't do well in Iowa. But I do think, FT will have a resurgance and beat McCain, and battle Paul for 3rd. Huckabee and Romney are in the process of cannabalizing each other now. One of these guys will disappoint. Anything is possible with that.

The 2 guys who will beat expectations will be Paul and Fred.

[perpetualstateofwar]

Mccains base of support is the liberal media.

[Dave Pedersen]

Once Ron gets some undeniable credibility established expect many people coming out of their hiding places to endorse him.

[rory096]

* Ron Paul is 3rd place at 12% amongst 18-34 year olds, which are far more energized and likely to brave bad roads or cold weather to caucus for Paul

Uh no, that's not true at all. Young people have a long history of not showing up to the polls.

[jj111]

Take into acount Hucks "Dean moment" from today. I feel it is way worse than Deans yelp.

What was today's Dean moment for Huck?

[ItDoesNotStopWithRonPaul]

McCain still polling above Paul?!? That's enough evidence to completely prove 100% that these polls are total BS.... Same with the huckster.

McCain hardly got a vote at the Iowa Straw Poll and Dr. Paul got 9% when he was polling only 1 or 2 percent. If they say we have 9 percent, we must have at least 15, maybe 20 percent. Optimistically, I think we can win Iowa. Pessimistically, I think we will take 3rd.

[speciallyblend]

msnbc this morning left ron paul off the chart but put rudy on at 5%,gotta love the fact ,the MSM is gonna eat alot of crow,jan 3rd;)

[Badger Paul]

I feel like Gen. Mikhail Kutuzov in the movie "War and Peace" falling to his knees before the icon of Virgin Mary and thanking God after he heard the French were retreating from Moscow.

He knew the Russians were going to win and now I know we're going to make it Thursday night! This isn't some crap poll from ARG or Battleground 2000 or whatever rinky-dink outlets wants to do a poll. This is a poll of Iowans BY Iowans and it confirms what observers and what the feeling on the ground is. We are statistically tied for third and with our ground operation and our passionate grassroots support we're going make it dammit! We're going to get it done.

Just keep praying all you religiously inclined. I can't wait until Thursday!

[Real_CaGeD]

What was today's Dean moment for Huck?


http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/huckabees-remarkable-play/

CNN tore him a new anus over this. The msm is killing Huck on it.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/huckabees-remarkable-play/ mp3

[Carole]

I believe Fred Thompson was forced to enter the presidential race by his "handlers/superiors" in order to water down Ron Paul's votes.

It has been working rather well until just recently when he made ssome strange statements about not really being that interested in the presidency. Yet he also said he felt he needed to run to provide (what?- a choice?) something. Either he really disliked the other candidates and decided to run or he was forced to run by others.

Maybe he wanted to dilute Giuliani or Romney, but it has likely also diluted Dr. Paul a little also. :(

Thoughts?

[peacemonger]

McCain's actually surging in Iowa; that's why he's doing well. He's no longer dead.

McCain was polling in this same range in Iowa in 2000. How many actually showed up?
He got 5% of the vote in Iowa.

Keyes and Forbes both managed to approximately double their poll numbers. We can do better than that because our supporters are more motivated.

I think Huck and Mitt supporters will not show up so much because of all the negative ads, overconfidence, cold weather, football or whatever which means their turnout might be less than the polling numbers indicate.

3rd place is in the bag. We need a last minute motivating effort which could propel us into 2nd, or even 1st.

[Badger Paul]

McCain doesn't have the on-ground support to go with the poll numbers. He cut his staff in Iowa to the bone and isn't running ads there. You need people to make phone calls and arrange transportation and do all sorts of things on caucus day to get people to the polls and he doesn't have that.

[speciallyblend]

i cant wait to see a top 3 finish for Ron Paul, i want to hear hannity say they must be spamming the caucus;)

[risk_reward]

Uh no, that's not true at all. Young people have a long history of not showing up to the polls.

Young people in Minnesota elected a professional wrestler for governor who was polling in single digits.

[Real_CaGeD]

Young people in Minnesota elected a professional wrestler for governor who was polling in single digits.

badda bing +1000000000000000000000000000

[FreedomLover]

Young people in Minnesota

The problems is it's the norm, what you listed is an exception to that.

Hopefully the Ron Paul revolution will be another exception to that political truism

[AgentPaul001]

McCain's resurgence in most of the country and Guliani's tanking campaign are two very real trends.

However I don't think McCain has the infrastructure in place to really place well in Iowa, 3rd there for him would be a big victory.

[literatim]

http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/964/allyourbasepi1.jpg

[Dave Pedersen]

The problems is it's the norm, what you listed is an exception to that.

Hopefully the Ron Paul revolution will be another exception to that political truism

We are at war. A war young people do not want to be a part of. They will turn out.

[rfbz]

I'd love to see the look on Giuliani's face the moment he learns he got beat by Ron Paul.

[Real_CaGeD]

I have watched a few pundits drop some hints from their inside numbers. RP ftw!

[constitutional]

I'd love to see the look on Giuliani's face the moment he learns he got beat by Ron Paul.

That's an absurd statement, I've been through many other elections and I've heard some absurd explanations about polls. I request rfbz to take that statement back.

[dircha]

That's an absurd statement, I've been through many other elections and I've heard some absurd explanations about polls. I request rfbz to take that statement back.

I laughed out loud. Good one.

I will follow Osama Bin Laden to the Gates of Hell and I will shoot him with your products!!!

[JohnnyWrath]

AWESOME news !!

[Thomas Paine]

I believe Fred Thompson was forced to enter the presidential race by his "handlers/superiors" in order to water down Ron Paul's votes.

It has been working rather well until just recently when he made ssome strange statements about not really being that interested in the presidency. Yet he also said he felt he needed to run to provide (what?- a choice?) something. Either he really disliked the other candidates and decided to run or he was forced to run by others.

Maybe he wanted to dilute Giuliani or Romney, but it has likely also diluted Dr. Paul a little also. :(

Thoughts?

Actually, I think Fred Thompson was forced to enter the presidential race by his wife, Jeri Thompson, or else he was going to be sleeping in the guest bedroom for the next year or so.

[Joey Wahoo]

Much of the McCain support is very soft. Ours is not. If this poll is accurate, then we'll finish third

[Thomas Paine]

McCain may be the preferred hooker of the month for the MSM but he doesn't have the cash or the organization to go the distance. This is why we need Romney and Giuliani in the race for the foreseeable future because they have the financial resources to keep firing torpedos at McCain and Huckabee until the latter two candidates are destroyed.

[newbitech]

McCain still polling above Paul?!? That's enough evidence to completely prove 100% that these polls are total BS.... Same with the huckster.


yeah I seriously doubt McCain picked up Tancredo's Ames Straw Poll anti-illegal immigration support.

[Carole]

Guys do you know what has been going on the last couple days with all the selling of NWS?

I was up all night catching up reading about it.

Even in Europe, stock being sold and advertisers for FOX being called to task.

Check the boards here. There are several threads.

It is hillarious and we may have found a way to let FOX put RP into the White House.

See below:

Rotflol Found this and I am still in stitches. :D


From: faisalzainabdul...@gmail.com - view profile
Date: Mon, Dec 31 2007 7:36 pm

Rating:
(1 user)
"I hold 543,000 dollars in stocks of NWS and I am becoming more and
more worried that there will be a massive drop in the value of the
stock in a matter of one or two days. I will sell my stocks
immediately and suggest others do the same. Apparently Ron Paul, some
presidential candidate, is not being invited to the Fox News debate in
New Hampshire. This story has made the headlines and his massive group
of hundreds of thousands of supporters are going to be boycotting NWS
and forcing its advertisers/sponsors to withdraw their purchases from
NWS. At first I wouldn't consider this to make a big difference, but
these group of supporters are insane! John Cafferty, a host for CNN's
"Situation Room," reported that EVERY-TIME Ron Paul is mentioned on
their news channel, CNN hosts receive Thousands of emails. He said
that no other candidate brings in even one email. John Cafferty also
said that "at any given moment, [Paul's] supporters can overpower the
internet." Also, his supporters have raised him a record breaking 10
million dollars in 48 hours. Ron Paul has received the most funds in
this quarter and any quarter recorded in political history. Although I
don't want to mingle to much in politics, I just have to say that ever
since the news came out that Paul was being excluded from the debate,
the NWS stock value has dropped phenomenally. Several sponsors have
agreed to boycott Fox to maintain customer approval ratings. All I'm
saying is that I recommend others to follow suit, especially if they
have a huge investment into NWS. I personally don't have a grudge
against Fox News and had the honor to meet Rupert Murdoch and his wife
at an occasion in late March last year. I also don't want anyone to
think that I support this boycott, but I only want to save as much of
your investments as I can. "

(http://finance.google.com/group/goog...10c9aa2dafb5a4)

[lloydian]

NWS is not falling hard. What are you talking about? At least be honest.

I hope NWS gets crushed but it is not although the stand by Paul supporters against FOX is commendable and should be pursued.

[mconder]

RP will take third by a small margin.