DRV45N05
12-31-2007, 01:29 PM
I'm going to go through some scenarios in Iowa and New Hampshire that will work in RP's favor going forward.
To begin with, if we don't win either state, we MUST have top-3 finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire. That much is unquestionable, but I think there's obviously a tremendous chance of that happening. If you had asked me three months ago how RP could win the nomination, I would have told you that the only way it could have happened is if he had won New Hampshire. But that was then, and this is the $19.1 million day. Here's what I'm envisioning as good for us:
1. We win Iowa or New Hampshire. Obviously, this cements us, and we can afford lower than 3rd place finishes in the other state if we win one of them.
2. Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire. We have a split in the first two states, so no candidate has crystal clear momentum coming out of it. Assuming we get a top-3 finish in both states, McCain and Thompson are knocked out. Huckabee will be low on cash, and Giuliani's fundraising slips even as it resets in 2008, as his donors lose confidence in him. It's a Paul, Huckabee, Romney race. Paul has the momentum to bring down to South Carolina, and he already has a huge base established.
3. Romney wins Iowa, McCain wins New Hampshire. McCain winning New Hampshire keeps him in, which is bad because he'll have the media pushing him, but nonetheless, we have a split in the first two states and we come in top-3 in each. Thompson is knocked out, and Huckabee is dealt a huge blow and won't have a lot of money left. Giuliani is still dealt a big blow and will be severely wounded.
4. Huckabee wins Iowa, McCain wins New Hampshire. This is the best scenario if we don't win Iowa or New Hampshire and get top-3 in each. Thompson and Romney are toast, and Giuliani is dealt a big blow. This means our two opponents down the stretch toward February 5 are two candidates who are having a ton of fundraising trouble, and the buzz we get from top-3 finishes in the early states matches theirs. McCain is going nowhere in SC, as he is both unpopular and has the baggage of being associated with Lindsey Graham so closely (which is a bad association to have these days in SC, especially among SC Republicans). He'll be able to take both of them down in SC, and we'll have the resources to take them down on February 5.
To begin with, if we don't win either state, we MUST have top-3 finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire. That much is unquestionable, but I think there's obviously a tremendous chance of that happening. If you had asked me three months ago how RP could win the nomination, I would have told you that the only way it could have happened is if he had won New Hampshire. But that was then, and this is the $19.1 million day. Here's what I'm envisioning as good for us:
1. We win Iowa or New Hampshire. Obviously, this cements us, and we can afford lower than 3rd place finishes in the other state if we win one of them.
2. Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire. We have a split in the first two states, so no candidate has crystal clear momentum coming out of it. Assuming we get a top-3 finish in both states, McCain and Thompson are knocked out. Huckabee will be low on cash, and Giuliani's fundraising slips even as it resets in 2008, as his donors lose confidence in him. It's a Paul, Huckabee, Romney race. Paul has the momentum to bring down to South Carolina, and he already has a huge base established.
3. Romney wins Iowa, McCain wins New Hampshire. McCain winning New Hampshire keeps him in, which is bad because he'll have the media pushing him, but nonetheless, we have a split in the first two states and we come in top-3 in each. Thompson is knocked out, and Huckabee is dealt a huge blow and won't have a lot of money left. Giuliani is still dealt a big blow and will be severely wounded.
4. Huckabee wins Iowa, McCain wins New Hampshire. This is the best scenario if we don't win Iowa or New Hampshire and get top-3 in each. Thompson and Romney are toast, and Giuliani is dealt a big blow. This means our two opponents down the stretch toward February 5 are two candidates who are having a ton of fundraising trouble, and the buzz we get from top-3 finishes in the early states matches theirs. McCain is going nowhere in SC, as he is both unpopular and has the baggage of being associated with Lindsey Graham so closely (which is a bad association to have these days in SC, especially among SC Republicans). He'll be able to take both of them down in SC, and we'll have the resources to take them down on February 5.