The OFFICIAL Iowa predictions thread - NO POLL!

[Original_Intent]

OK folks,

I realize this doesn't make any difference, is not helpig RP get elected etc.

This is for a fun five minutes between all the canvassing, partying tonight, etc.

Here is how your results will be judged: You List what percentage you think each candidate will get in Iowa on Thursday. You will get one point for each percentage off you are for each candidate. The lowest score wins. Take voting fraud or whatever pet theory you have into account, the results will be compared to the offical released numbers. Tie breaker, if any, will be based on who was closest to Ron Paul's percentage! Submission deadline 1/2/2008

Here's my prognostication:

Huck 25%
Paul 19%
Romney 19%
McCain 12%
Thompson 11%
Giuliani 10%
Hunter 3%
Keyes 1%

Have fun and we will see in three days!

[jufreese]

Huckabee 23%
Paul 22%
Romney 21%
McCain 15%
Giuliani 9%
Thompson 7%
Hunter 2%
Keyes 1%

[Richie]

Romney - 24%
Huckabee - 20%
Paul - 18%
Thompson - 16%
McCain - 13%
Giuliani - 8%
Hunter - 1%
Keyes - 0.1%

[constitutional]

Romney 22%
Paul 20%
McCain 16%
Huck 15%
Giuliani 12%
Thompson 11%
Hunter 3%
Keyes 1%

[katao]

Romney 26%
Huckabee 24%
Paul 14%
McCain13%
Thompson 12%
Giuliani 8%
Hunter 2%
Keyes 1%

[micahnelson]

From Fox News

Huckabee takes first place, barely edging Romney who took third.
McCain, Thompson and Giulliani take 4th, 5th, and 6th respectively.

[greendiseaser]

Paul 52%
Romney 14%
Huckabee 13%
McCain 10%
Thompson 7%
Keyes 3%
Giuliani 1%
-------------------------------

EXPECT PAULTARDS TO SPAM THE POLLS!
:D :D :D

[constitutional]

From Fox News

Huckabee takes first place, barely edging Romney who took third.
McCain, Thompson and Giulliani take 4th, 5th, and 6th respectively.

Reading that makes me livid. I know how Fox would do that and an average American would not pick it up. I don't know who to blame, the media or the people.

[freelance]

From Fox News

Huckabee takes first place, barely edging Romney who took third.
McCain, Thompson and Giulliani take 4th, 5th, and 6th respectively.

I swear I was getting ready to post something just like this. :p

That's EXACTLY what they'll do.

[mport1]

Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Giuliani
Thompson
Paul
Hunter
Keyes

No idea on percentages, but that is my order. Hate to be pessimistic but I think that we are a long way away from where we need to be. Need to push much harder.

[jasonoliver]

Ron Paul 1st!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Down with the Neocons & Theocons!

[mport1]

Reading that makes me livid. I know how Fox would do that and an average American would not pick it up. I don't know who to blame, the media or the people.

They are both to blame.

[Adamsa]

I think Ron will come ahead of McCain and Giuliani.

[Voluntaryist]

Ron Paul 24%
Huckabee 21%
Romney 17%
McCain 14%
Thompson 13%
Giuliani 9%
Hunter 2%

[Original_Intent]

Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Giuliani
Thompson
Paul
Hunter
Keyes

No idea on percentages, but that is my order. Hate to be pessimistic but I think that we are a long way away from where we need to be. Need to push much harder.

Hopefully Thursday will be a wake up call to you about how much the pollsters have lied to you, and not a wake up call to me about how deluded I have been with our successes. C'mon put some numbers up there!

[Psyclone]

Huckabee 27%
Romney 25%
McCain 14%
Thompson 12%
Paul 11%
Giuliani 9%
Other 2%

McCain has been surging since the Des Moines Register endorsed him, and Thompson has essentially been campaigning non-stop in the state since mid-December. Sorry I can't be more optimistic.

[Arek]

Thompson 25%
Ron Paul 23%
Romney 18%
Huckabee 18%
Guiliani 7%
Keyes 9%

Fred Thompson will surprise in Iowa and in fact will assist us in many States by displacing Huckabee and Romney. Further predictions I see a Ron Paul victory in New Hampshire, michigan and South Carolina all thanks toe the Fred effect.

[Jobarra]

Huckabee 24%
Ron Paul 23%
Romney 19%
McCain 17%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 6%
Hunter 1%

[PimpBlimp]

Ron Paul 25%
Huckabee 19%
Romney 19%
Thompson 12%
McCain 10%
Guliani 7%

[Tina]

Since I like the AOL numbers I'll use them here.

RP 37%
MH 20%
MR 19%
JM 9%
FT 8%
RG 6%
DH 1%

[RonPaulJunkie]

Huck 25%
Paul 15%
Romney 21%
McCain 14%
Thompson 11%
Giuliani 13%
Hunter 1%
Keyes 0%

[Forefall]

I can't really see how you guys are putting exact numbers... instead of that, try approximates to make your addition easier :)

IOWA:
30% - Mike Huckabee
20% - Ron Paul
15% - Mitt Romney
15% - Fred Thompson
10% - John McCain
10% - Rudy Giuliani
Comments: Huckabee owns Iowa, period.

New Hampshire:
35% - Mitt Romney
25% - Ron Paul
15% - John McCain
10% - Rudy Giuliani
10% - Mike Huckabee
05% - Fred Thompson
Comments: Romney owns NH, McCain's support is overblown.

After First Two Primaries:
25.0% - Mitt Romney: 15%/35%
22.5% - Ron Paul: 20%/25%
20.0% - Mike Huckabee: 10%/30%
12.5% - John McCain: 10%/15%
10.0% - Rudy Giuliani: 10%/10%
10.0% - Fred Thompson: 15%/5%

I am convinced the race will come down to Romney vs Paul vs Huckabee. The other candidates stand no chance.

[chinaCat]

I'm not going to put out my guess, but I'd be interested if anyone who lives/or has been spending time in iowa to say as much when they give their predictions.

[priest_of_syrinx]

Huck 25%
Romney 22%
Paul 15%
Thompson 14%
McCain 12%
Giuliani 8%
Other 4%

[itshappening]

I think Huckabee and his christian fans will just edge Mitt and his highly organized well oiled machine

Huckabee: 29%
Mitt Romney: 25%
Ron Paul: 20%
Thompson: 11%
McCain: 8%
Guiliani 5%
Hunter: 1%
Keyes: 1%

[Original_Intent]

/bump. I'm putting this all in a spreadsheet here at work. Keep 'em coming!;)

[born2drv]

Huckabee 28%
Paul 21%
Romney 18%
McCain 15%
Giuliani 9%
Thompson 6%
Hunter 3%
Keyes 0%

[RTsquared]

Time for my WAG(s):

If there is decent weather for the caucuses:

Romney 24%
Huckabee 22%
Paul 17%
McCain 14%
Thompson 12%
Giuliani 9%
Hunter 1%
Others 1%

If there is horrid weather:

Paul 27%
Huckabee 23%
Romney 18%
McCain 16%
Giuliani 11%
Thompson 3%
Hunter 1%
Others 1%

Bonus points: The story out of Iowa will be...the rejuvenation of the McCain campaign.

[Josh]

Huck - 26%
Romeny - 22%
Paul - 16%
McCain - 12%
Thompson - 11%
Giuliani - 8%

[Luther]

I predict over 20 percent for Ron Paul.

[Original_Intent]

I predict over 20 percent for Ron Paul.

c'mon be more specific! Percentages for all the candidates!

[skinzterpswizfan]

Romney - 27%
Huckabee - 25%
Paul - 18%
McCain - 10%
Thompson - 9%
Giuliani - 8%
Hunter - 2%
Keyes - 1%

[trey4sports]

i wish i could tell everyone that we were going to come in first but we still dont have the name recognition nor have we spent the money needed. thats ok though, its all about super tuesday.

Huck 28%
Romney 23%
McCain 18%
Paul 17%
Thompson 7%
Giuliani 6%
Hunter 1%
Keyes 1%

[FreedomLover]

After Huckabee's Hypocritical Breakdown today, I have to change my numbers and give Romney the win.

Romney 29%

Huckabee 27%

Ron Paul 15%

Thompson 12%

McCain 11%

Giuliani 5%

Hunter 1%

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

Romney 33%
Huckabee 27%
Thompson 12%
Paul 10%
McCain 10%
Giuliani 5%
Keyes 2%
Hunter 1%

[newbitech]

Huckabee 33%

Romney 21%

Paul 20%

McCain 14%

Thompson 5%

Giuliani 5%

Hunter 1%

Keyes 1%

[Noleader]

Ron Paul - 21%
Huckabee - 20%
Romney - 17%
Thompson - 17%
McCain - 10%
Giuliani - 10%
Hunter - 5%

Something tells me Huck and Paul are going to be very close... McCain is going to have a bad showing and if that happens it will only add to Pauls numbers in NH.

[d991]

Romney - 26%
Huckabee - 24%
Thompson - 15%
Paul - 12%
McCain - 12%
Giuliani - 6%
Keyes - 4%
Hunter - 1%

Anyone who is predicting Ron Paul to place 1st or 2nd is way too idealistic. We all love Ron Paul but getting your hopes up that he could possibly place 1/2 in IOWA is probably just going to make you angry and get your hopes up.
I think he could place a solid third and if so, people should be very pleased with that result. Just ask people in Iowa. There are numerous posts on these forums by people in Iowa who say 3rd is about as high as they predict he'll get.

[ChickenHawk]

Hucky-32
Romney-24
Ron Paul-15
Thompson-13
McCain-10
Guiliani-6
Hunter-<1
Keyes-<1

That's my best guess but I have a feeling it won't look anything like that.

[dircha]

I see Paul in 5th or 6th place. I hope I'm wrong.

I think the American people by and large are stubborn, uninformed, and incapable of serious rational thought outside their occupational specialization.

To add to that, many people here don't seem to appreciate or understand polls. This leads them to make ridiculous allegations such as that pollsters only poll those who have participated in previous primaries, or that they exclude from their GOP polls anyone who didn't vote for Bush in 2004, neither of which is accurate. All reputable polls include first time voters, and no reputable poll is based solely off of 2004 registration rolls.

There are plenty of sources of error and bias in polls, but these are not it.

My prediction in as follows. To add a twist to the numbers, I'm making the assumption that church groups will organize higher than projected turnout for Huckabee, that McCain's support will continue to grow, and that predominately young Paul voters new to the caucus process will fail to turnout.

Huckabee 33%
Romney 27%
McCain 16%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 7%
Paul 5%
Other 2%

[Prez4TheNet]

I see Paul in 5th or 6th place. I hope I'm wrong.

I think the American people by and large are stubborn, uninformed, and incapable of serious rational thought outside their occupational specialization.

To add to that, many people here don't seem to appreciate or understand polls. This leads them to make ridiculous allegations such as that pollsters only poll those who have participated in previous primaries, or that they exclude from their GOP polls anyone who didn't vote for Bush in 2004, neither of which is accurate. All reputable polls include first time voters, and no reputable poll is based solely off of 2004 registration rolls.

There are plenty of sources of error and bias in polls, but these are not it.

My prediction in as follows. To add a twist to the numbers, I'm making the assumption that church groups will organize higher than projected turnout for Huckabee, that McCain's support will continue to grow, and that predominately young Paul voters new to the caucus process will fail to turnout.

Huckabee 33%
Romney 27%
McCain 16%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 7%
Paul 5%
Other 2%


You have it right on the money. I know we are a tireless and enthusiastic minority but we need to realize that Paul's message is not going to make an impact in this election. Maybe the next one or the one after if we keep up the fervor of this movement.

[Jodi]

Ron Paul 38%
Huckabee 21%
Romney 15%
McCain 12%
Thompson 9%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 1%

[JustAnotherV]

It's useless to try to project all of them... I think we are in a battle for 3rd place with Thompson and McCain, maybe Rudy if his polling is off.

I am pegging RP at ~12-14% assuming he gets a solid turnout from his motivated and allegedly under-polled following.

If we get 3rd with that, after Mitt and Huck (who I am calling as 1-2), I'd be happy. We might have a chance of beating Huck in NH and ? in SC/NV/MI making us at least as legit as they are going into Feb 5th.


If I am wrong because we do better I'll be happy anyway... ;)

[ladyliberty3]

Romney 25%
Paul 21%
huck 20%
<cCain 12%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 8%
Hunter 4%

[Joey Wahoo]

In a suprising upset:

Ron Paul 100%

[aknappjr]

Ron Paul 3rd in Iowa

[Carole]

After hearing how ridiculous the caucus is for democrats (like a game) I can only wonder at the results. :(

After hearing that the Republicans will vote secret ballots and only number of delegates will be made public and votes will be kept secret, I can only imagine the myriad ways this can be manipulated in Iowa. :mad:

After hearing that Iowa politics is allegedly quite corrupt, I do not wonder at anything.

The results will closely mirror the polls.

Any thoughts? :(

[Tratzman]

From my northeast Iowa perspective:

Huckleberry 27
Rommel 22
RP 19
McCain 13
Thompson 11
Ghoul 7
Hunter 1

The passion for bringing in friends and family to the caucus will propel RP to a strong finish. I gave out 8 new voter registrations at work today to new RP supporters. Trust me, we'll get enough out there to finish at least a strong third.

[Birdlady]

Without Voter Fraud
Ron Paul 28%
Romney 22%
Huckabee 19%
McCain 15%
Thompson 9%


With Voter Fraud
Huckabee 26%
Romney 24%
Paul 19%
McCain 17%
Thompson 9%

The sick thing is that a lot of us are putting Huckabee at the top even though he is a joke. That's what a bias media does in this country.

edit: I guess I left out rudy lol That was wishful thinking. Oh well!

[RP-Republican]

Paul 25%
Romney 24%
Huck 18%
McCain 11%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 8%
Hunter 2%
Keyes 2%

[Joey Wahoo]

From my northeast Iowa perspective:

Huckleberry 27
Rommel 22
RP 19
McCain 13
Thompson 11
Ghoul 7
Hunter 1

The passion for bringing in friends and family to the caucus will propel RP to a strong finish. I gave out 8 new voter registrations at work today to new RP supporters. Trust me, we'll get enough out there to finish at least a strong third.

Your post has made my day Tratzman! You are on the frontline of the first battle of the revolution. Best wishes to you and all the RP Iowans!

[AFM]

Romney 27
Paul 23
Huckabee 21
McCain11%
Thompson 9%
Giuliani 8%
Hunter 1%
Keyes 0%

[nimo]

Romney 27%
Huckabee 24%
Paul 22%

[Starwind]

Huckabee - 25%
Thompson - 19%
Paul - 17%
Romney - 15%
McCain - 14%
Giuliani - 8%
Hunter - 2%

[islather]

Romney 22%
Huckabee 21%
McCain 17%
Paul 16%
Thompson 14%
Giuliani 7%
Hunter 2%
Keyes 1%

[austin356]

I can't really see how you guys are putting exact numbers... instead of that, try approximates to make your addition easier :)

IOWA:
30% - Mike Huckabee
20% - Ron Paul
(20%) 15% - Mitt Romney
(10%) 15% - Fred Thompson
10% - John McCain
10% - Rudy Giuliani
Comments: Huckabee owns Iowa, period.

New Hampshire:
35% - Mitt Romney
25% - Ron Paul
15% - John McCain
10% - Rudy Giuliani
10% - Mike Huckabee
05% - Fred Thompson
Comments: Romney owns NH, McCain's support is overblown; (NH's Republican race depends more on Obama's Iowa showing than commonly thought).

After First Two Primaries:
25.0% - Mitt Romney: 15%/35%
22.5% - Ron Paul: 20%/25%
20.0% - Mike Huckabee: 10%/30%
12.5% - John McCain: 10%/15%
10.0% - Rudy Giuliani: 10%/10%
10.0% - Fred Thompson: 15%/5%

I am convinced the race will come down to Romney vs Paul vs Huckabee. The other candidates stand no chance.


exactly. Only changes I would make are in Red.

[austin356]

Everyone keeps overrating Thompson.

[The Lantern]

Paul 52%
Romney 14%
Huckabee 13%
McCain 10%
Thompson 7%
Keyes 3%
Giuliani 1%
-------------------------------

EXPECT PAULTARDS TO SPAM THE POLLS!
:D :D :D

I hope you are right.

[The Lantern]

24%--Romney
22%--Huckabee
21%--Ron Paul
14%--McCain
10%--Thompson
08%--Giuliani

[paulitics]

Huck 30%
Romney 25%
Ron Paul 15%
Fred Thompson 15%
McCain 8%
Giuliani 5%
Hunter 1%
Keys 1%

[zaffa]

Huckabee 27%
Romney 24%
Ron Paul 16%
McCain 15%
Guliani 13%
Thompson 5%

[TheWhiteRider]

i got two predictions:

either Ron Paul sweeps this in a landslide (which I think is actually very likely) or something like

Romney
Huckabee
Paul
McCain
Thompson
Giulinai (or however the crap you spell his name)
Hunter
Keyes

and ROmney and Huckabees spots are interchangable

[BrazilLuLa]

Huckabee - 28%
Romney - 26%
Paul - 15% - He is The X Factor - Paul could go from 10-20%
Mccain - 13%
Thompson - 9%
Guiliani - 7%
Others - 2%

[jsteilKS]

Huckabee 25%
Romney 23%
Paul 17%
McCain 13%
Thompson 11%
Giuliani 9%
Hunter 1%
Others 1%

what will be reported the next day by the MSM

Huckabee 25%
Romney 23%
McCain 13%
Thompson 11%
Giuliani 9%
Hunter 1%
Others 18%

[thechitowncubs]

I am in Iowa for the Christmas Vacation

Realistically, 3rd Place

Optimisticly, 2nd Place

Romney 1st, Huckabee 2nd/3rd

[MLC]

I think RP will get 3rd to 4th in Iowa, and 1st or 2nd in NH. NH is the better bet of the two given its independent leanings.

[trey4sports]

I think RP will get 3rd to 4th in Iowa, and 1st or 2nd in NH. NH is the better bet of the two given its independent leanings.


yeah i here this alot however people dont take into account the fact that the higher turnout rate in NH (44%) compared to much much lower turnout nationwide hurts us because the other candidates who have apathetic supporters end up voting and our strong turnout rate is marginalized

[jabrownie]

The Jabrownie Forecast

Huck 27%
Romney 24%
McCain 15%
Paul 13%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 8%
Hunter 2%
Keyes 1%

[american2]

Huckabee 34%
Paul 19%
Romney 19%
McCain 10%
Thompson 8%
Giuliani 5%
Hunter 3%
Keyes 2%

[Suzu]

Romney 24%
Paul 22%
Huck 21%
McCain 13%
Thompson 9%
Giuliani 6%
Hunter 3%
Keyes 2%

[Chadd Murray]

I see Paul in 5th or 6th place. I hope I'm wrong.

I think the American people by and large are stubborn, uninformed, and incapable of serious rational thought outside their occupational specialization.

To add to that, many people here don't seem to appreciate or understand polls. This leads them to make ridiculous allegations such as that pollsters only poll those who have participated in previous primaries, or that they exclude from their GOP polls anyone who didn't vote for Bush in 2004, neither of which is accurate. All reputable polls include first time voters, and no reputable poll is based solely off of 2004 registration rolls.

There are plenty of sources of error and bias in polls, but these are not it.

My prediction in as follows. To add a twist to the numbers, I'm making the assumption that church groups will organize higher than projected turnout for Huckabee, that McCain's support will continue to grow, and that predominately young Paul voters new to the caucus process will fail to turnout.

Huckabee 33%
Romney 27%
McCain 16%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 7%
Paul 5%
Other 2%
Nah I'd put paul at more like 9-12%, probably 12. But I think you're fairly close/realistic unlike most people on this forum.

[Peace&Freedom]

McCain's adviser (Graham) defacto conceded Paul is going to beat McCain, so he has to be higher. Since almost all agree Thompson, Giuliani, Keyes and Hunter will do worse than McCain, they go to the bottom. Based on intel I got from meetup people in Iowa this weekend indicating Paul has massively underreported organizational strength, I believe Paul will finish no lower than second. So my best guess is:

Huckabee - 27%
Paul - 24%
Romney- 22%
McCain - 14%
Thompson - 8%
Giuliani - 4%
Others - 1%

[me3]

I'm just praying for good results.

Looking for Paul to finish 3rd or better. If by some miracle we finished first, it would be a sign.

[Jimmy]

I feel he is going to have a good finish...Sadly...I also look for the media to attack RP afterwards in a BIG type way....I hope I'm right on the first and wrong about the second.

[Peace&Freedom]

This should have been a poll, but my rough math (based on people posting actual percentages for at least five candidates, or endorsing previous posters' estimates) yields the following consensus about Iowa:

Huckabee - 24.72%
Romney- 22.96%
Paul - 21.09%
McCain - 12.98%
Thompson - 11.26%
Others - <7%

Again, my own prediction is:

Huckabee - 27%
Paul - 24%
Romney- 22%
McCain - 14%
Thompson - 8%
Giuliani - 4%
Others - 1%

Either way, it seems we preponderantly think Paul will safely be in the top three.

[RichardC]

McCain's adviser (Graham) defacto conceded Paul is going to beat McCain, so he has to be higher. Since almost all agree Thompson, Giuliani, Keyes and Hunter will do worse than McCain, they go to the bottom. Based on intel I got from meetup people in Iowa this weekend indicating Paul has massively underreported organizational strength, I believe Paul will finish no lower than second.

I'd have to go with this line of thinking. RP getting 20% will either be conservative or right on the money. However, I don't believe Romney or Huckabee have any real supporters. Its all manufactured by the media and by their campaigns.

So in light of all this, unless the election is rigged (and it very well could be) I'm expecting RP in the 30-ish% area. Nobody pulls in supporter money like RP.

Paul 33%
Romney 24%
Huck 21%
McCain 13%
Thompson 4%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 1%
Keyes 0%

Paul will demonstrate the power of actual voters who are able to ignore the naysayers and spin masters. Romney will skate by on money, 'electability', and his pretty boy looks. Huck gets votes based on manufactured media image, 'electability' and the anti-romney/anti-giuliani crowd. McCain gets the rest of any serious percentage based on (once again) manufactured media image (the comeback kid) and name recognition. Iowa wants Thompson, Giuliani, Hunter or Keyes to be president like they want a sharp stick in the eye.

He will pull 40%+ in NH.

[daviddee]

...

[dt_]

But Fred wasn't in the race yet, and McCain didn't really have a large presence in Iowa at that point.

[Goldwater Conservative]

To add to that, many people here don't seem to appreciate or understand polls.

I guess John Zogby doesn't appreciate or understand polls. :)

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=866


All reputable polls include first time voters, and no reputable poll is based solely off of 2004 registration rolls.

"First, we ask about voting history and only include those who say they vote all of the time or most of the time."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/iowa_caucus_screening


But Fred wasn't in the race yet, and McCain didn't really have a large presence in Iowa at that point.

And Paul hadn't shattered fundraising records yet. ;)

Anyway, my predictions are:

Huckabee 24%
Paul 21
Romney 20
McCain 15
Thompson 12
Giuliani 6
Hunter/Other 2

McCain is rising at Romney's expense, and as people give Huck a second look Thompson will benefit. A combination of hidden support and high turnout among his base will give Dr. Paul a surprise second place.

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

bump

[dblee]

huck 27.02
romney 27.02
ron paul 21.62
mccain 9.9
giuliani 7.2
thompson 7.2

I based this on some rough poll numbers from recent polls and assuming that 75% of Ron Paul supporters show up as opposed to 25% for other candidates.

[LinearChaos]

Paul - 97%
Romney - 2%
Huckabee - 1%
McCain - 0%
Thompson - 0%
Giuliani - 0%
Hunter - 0%
Keyes - 0%

consider it an outlier :D

[PubliusPublicola]

Huckabee - 29%
Romney - 24%
Ron Paul - 16%
Mccain - 15%
Thompson - 9%
Giuliani - 7%

[ItsTime]

Paul will place 9th...

[ronpaulfollower999]

Ron Paul will beat Giuliani and Thompson, possibly McCain in Iowa.

[Montana Patriot]

Paul - 25%
Romney - 20%
Huckabee - 20%
McCain - 15
Thompson - 15
Giuliani - 3%
Hunter - 2%
Keyes - 0%

[LibertyEagle]

Paul will place 9th...

Well, that's optimistic. :(

[ItsTime]

haha it was a joke. I dont like predictions on placement too much.


Well, that's optimistic. :(

[joshdvm]

Shortly before the Ames Straw poll there was a fellow on this board who I believe was active politically in Iowa. As I recall, he pointed out that many here, in his view, were being overly-optimistic and urged everyone to be realistic in their expectations. This was based on his first-hand observations regarding the relative strengths of all the campaigns in Iowa prior to that date.

If I remember correctly, I think his view turned out to be more or less on the money, therefore this is the guy whose prediction I would be interested in.

Anyone remember him and if he has offered his recent predictions/views about Iowa?

[CJP]

Huckabee 29 %
Romney 28 %
Paul 13 %
McCain 13 %
Thompson 11 %
Giuliani 4 %
Hunter 1 %
Keyes 1 %

[jointhefightforfreedom]

Paul 47%
Huck 18%
Romney 15%
McCain 12%
Thompson 5%
Giuliani 3%

[PubliusPublicola]

I see Paul in 5th or 6th place. I hope I'm wrong.

I think the American people by and large are stubborn, uninformed, and incapable of serious rational thought outside their occupational specialization.

To add to that, many people here don't seem to appreciate or understand polls. This leads them to make ridiculous allegations such as that pollsters only poll those who have participated in previous primaries, or that they exclude from their GOP polls anyone who didn't vote for Bush in 2004, neither of which is accurate. All reputable polls include first time voters, and no reputable poll is based solely off of 2004 registration rolls.

There are plenty of sources of error and bias in polls, but these are not it.

My prediction in as follows. To add a twist to the numbers, I'm making the assumption that church groups will organize higher than projected turnout for Huckabee, that McCain's support will continue to grow, and that predominately young Paul voters new to the caucus process will fail to turnout.

Huckabee 33%
Romney 27%
McCain 16%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 7%
Paul 5%
Other 2%

Interesting.

Your cynicism about young voters may be apt, but we'll see. As somebody pointed out earlier, bad weather could be a determining factor... ironically.

Personally, I expect Giuliani, Hunter and Thompson supporters to start shifting to 2nd choices in Iowa. I think that gives a boost to Romney over Huckabee... with some of those Thompson people going towards Paul.

I easily imagine Paul breaking 10% and reaching upwards of 20% depending on just how many "unexpected" voters show up for him. In real terms, we're talking approx. 10,000 unexpected voters who can swing it from 10 to 20%.

This is very hard to predict, but the possibility is there.

I wouldnt be surprised to see Paul anywhere from 4% to 20%.

[Give me liberty]

Paul 40%
McCain 30%
Romney 20%
Thompson 17%
Giuliani 9%


Other way is this
Romney 32%
Paul 30%
McCain 29%

Well thats how i think its going to happen.

And yes we can hope Ron Paul might win a second place :)
second isn't so bad.

[Alex]

Random guess from me!

Huckabee: 33%
Romney: 30%
Paul: 14%
McCain: 10%
Thompson: 8%
Giuliani: 4%
Other (Hunter/Keyes/Cox/Et cetera): 2%

[MrOblivious]

Its going to be very close, but Ron is gonna take number 1. I think we're underestimating his power there.

My Prediction:

1. Paul 26%
2. Huckabee 24%
3. Romney 20%
4. Giuliani 14%
5. McCain 8%
6. Thompson 6%
7. Other 2%

[goldstandard]

Romney 28%
Huckabee 22%
Paul 17%
McCain 12%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 8%
Keyes 2%
Hunter 1%

[Dary]

Ron Paul 25%
Huckabee 23%
Romney 20%
McCain 14%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 6%
Hunter 2%

[Joby]

Romney
Huckabee
McCain
Thompson
Paul
Guiliani
Hunter

Hate to be pessimistic.

Now Go Out and Prove Me Wrong!

[Trance Dance Master]

Shortly before the Ames Straw poll there was a fellow on this board who I believe was active politically in Iowa. As I recall, he pointed out that many here, in his view, were being overly-optimistic and urged everyone to be realistic in their expectations. This was based on his first-hand observations regarding the relative strengths of all the campaigns in Iowa prior to that date.

If I remember correctly, I think his view turned out to be more or less on the money, therefore this is the guy whose prediction I would be interested in.

Anyone remember him and if he has offered his recent predictions/views about Iowa?

The campaigns of the other candidates peaked prematurely. Ron Paul walked away from Ames in August the clear winner as far as how many motivated, enthusiastic, active, and effective recruiters he had on his side working for him. And at that time, the other candidates had spent way more money there and it was obvious they began emulating him to an even greater degree.

Huckabee's big motivational message to go to the Caucus:

http://www.ktka.com/news/2007/dec/31/huckabee_warns_boring_orange_bowl/

"The Orange Bowl will be boring anyway"

And let's not forget Romney's passionate appeal to get potential voters to the Caucus:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/12/13/513775.aspx

“And now I need you guys,” he said, launching into his conclusion. “I need you on one day to give one hour. On one day I need you to go out on Jan. 3rd. And I know there’s going to be the Orange Bowl on, I mean, who wants to get away from the Orange Bowl? There’s going to be the Orange Bowl."

Neither of these guys has a man like the Drew Ivers inspiring their constituency in Iowa:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wo7G6j6bi4

Is it realistic to think Romney or Huckabee will get first? No, that is a very unrealistic prediction. Those guys look very desperate. The rest seem to have completely capitulated by this point.

[ThePieSwindler]

Anyone predicting Paul to finish BELOW the polls is a fucking idiot. A mid-teens prediction is the most accurate, i think, with McCain and thompson just behind, but anyone predicting Ron Paul finsihing below 4th is actually being less realistic than the people predicting him in third or second.

I base these facts on a few factors. First, polls have in tied essentially with thompson, and slightly below mccain. However, according to many Iowans who have posted on here, McCain's support is "soft", and even Romney's support has a strong core with alot of other somewhat "undecided" voters. Most of those undecided voters will tend towards Huckabee if not Romney, so i think the only help it would give Paul is perhaps moving Romney closer, so that if there is somehow an even higher number than this for Paul, he MIGHT have a shot at second, at the expense of huckabee running away with the thing.

There is an outside shot at 2nd, with 4th being slightly more likely than 2nd, but i think 3rd being by far the most likely possibility. I'd say the chance at 1st is near zero, barring some miracle and some very very odd circumstances, which won't happen. 2nd is likely because there is a chance of Huckabee perhaps taking alot of romney votes, but that makes it alot harder for Paul to come in 1st, and alot easier for him to come in 2nd.

My guess:

Huckabee 32%
Romney 25%
Paul 16%
Thompson 11%
McCain 8%
Giuliani 5%
Hunter 2%
Keyes 1%

[ThePieSwindler]

Paul 40%
McCain 30%
Romney 20%
Thompson 17%
Giuliani 9%


Other way is this
Romney 32%
Paul 30%
McCain 29%

Well thats how i think its going to happen.

And yes we can hope Ron Paul might win a second place :)
second isn't so bad.

Does Huckabee die in this scenario?

[Trance Dance Master]

Does Huckabee die in this scenario?
Hunting accident?

[Alex]

Does Huckabee die in this scenario?

You'd think those murderers he pardoned would be a little more grateful. :rolleyes:

[Original_Intent]

Does Huckabee die in this scenario?

He was warned about hunting with Cheney :D

[Naraku]

Here's a very generous guess from me:

Ron Paul - 24%
Huckabee - 21%
John McCain - 15%
Thompson - 13%
Mitt Romney - 12%
Giuliani - 10%
Keyes - 4%
Hunter - 1%

[Zack]

Romney - 27%
Huckabee - 25%
Paul - 15%
McCain - 15%
Thompson - 11%
Giuliani - 6%
Hunter - 1%
Keyes - 0%

McCain has a lot going for him in NH. If we don't beat him in Iowa, that will be very very very very bad news. And if we -somehow- find a way to lose to both McCain and Thompson... I will be speechless at our ineffectiveness.

[Dan Hall]

I saw on YouTube that Operation Call Paul needs bucks!

Please see what I'm doing at www.DanielHall-SupportsRonPaul.ws

This is how we can raise more and more money as we campaign for Ron Paul.

[Flex]

Huckabee - 30%
Romney - 24%
Paul - 18%
McCain - 17%
Thompson - 10%
Giuliani - 4%
Hunter - 2%
Keyes - 1%

[microsect]

Huck - 23%
Romeny - 19%
Paul - 15%
McCain - 12%
Thompson - 11%
Giuliani - 8%

[TenDeseo]

Paul - 21
Huck - 19
Romney - 19
Giuliani - 15
McCain - 13
Thompson - 9
Hunter - 3
Keyes - 1

[thisisgiparti]

Romney - 27%
Paul - 24%
Huckabee - 19%
Thompson - 11%
Giuliani - 9%
McCain - 6%
Hunter - 3%
Keyes - 1%

I think Huckabee lost ground. Romney worked too hard on Iowa to lose it, but I think he and Ron Paul will be close. I saw Ron Paul taking third, but I am optimistic tonight. Maybe second after all? I think Thompson's poll numbers have been accurate. I doubt McCain is going to show well, and I don't think he or NH care. He will do well there. I think Iowans really dislike Giuliani. His recent tough talk about borders will make him slightly more popular than McCain. This is how I see it.

[Michigan11]

Romney 20%
Paul 18%
McCain 15%

Here is the deal, there is no f'n way, Huck is going to come in the top 3 or anything better than Paul, I have never heard of or met one person, who didn't just scoff and shake their head, if you mention Huckabee, there isn't even a conversation about it. That is how low of a perception people have of that guy, let alone his name. Huck is a ploy put out by the controlled media, say his name out loud, Huckabee, this isn't the andy griffith show, who the f is actually taking 'Huckabee' on 'tell-a-vision' serious as a candidate.

Here is the deal folks, people who normally vote republican, really don't give a f$$$ about any one of these other candidates, F%%% now I am so pissed off even thinking about these other candidates, and how the media is completely making up these numbers.

F&&& it, Ron Paul Wins!

[lapi7]

From Fox News

Huckabee takes first place, barely edging Romney who took third.
McCain, Thompson and Giulliani take 4th, 5th, and 6th respectively.

Anyone think that's funny?
I, for one, believe that that's EXACTLY what they would do!!! :mad:

[lapi7]

Huckabee 23%
Paul 21%
Romney 19%
McCain 15%
Giuliani 11%
Thompson 8%
Hunter 2%
Keyes 1%

[wgadget]

Another question is: How much do Romney/Huckabee/McCain supporters love college bowl games more than politics?

The Orange Bowl will begin Thursday night at the exact same time that the caucus begins.

[lapi7]

Are the Iowa Hawkye's in The Orange Bowl?

[wgadget]

I don't think so, but really, does it matter?

[wgadget]

Looks like Virginia Tech vs. Kansas

Ya know...Kansas is right next door to Iowa, isn't it?

[lapi7]

I would think so...if the Hawkeye's were in the Orange Bowl, yes, I believe that it could make a significant differance in Caucus voters attendance.
With the exception ofRon Paul voters.

[lapi7]

Looks like Virginia Tech vs. Kansas

Ya know...Kansas is right next door to Iowa, isn't it?

Good point!

[hvac ak47]

Romney 26%
Huckabee 24%
McCain14%
Thompson 13%
Paul 12%
Giuliani 8%
Hunter 2%
Keyes 1%

[JohnM]

Bump.

So - who was closest? Looks to me like Psyclone got about as close as anyone.

[JohnM]

/bump. I'm putting this all in a spreadsheet here at work. Keep 'em coming!;)

bump. How's the spreadsheet going?

[Chadd Murray]

Nah I'd put paul at more like 9-12%, probably 12. But I think you're fairly close/realistic unlike most people on this forum.
Good to see that I was within my own MOE for paul, though I didn't see the Thompson resurgence comming. I hope those who made disparaging remarks towards me and other posters who predicted 'low' polling are welcomed a little more now - We love Paul just as much as you do.