**IOWA Caucus Prediction Thread and Bet**

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

Predict the top 5 Republican finishers.

Assign a predicted percentage of the vote to each candidate.

For every percentage point you are off for EACH candidate, you owe $2 to Ron's campaign.

If someone in your predicted top 5 fails to make the Caucus top 5, the $2 multiplier is whatever the 5th place percentage is.

CAVEAT: For every Paul percentage point error, YOU OWE $10.

Whoever wins (donates the least) cannot be called a troll for an entire week.


GOP
-------------------

1 - Romney 27%
2 - Paul 20%
3 - McCain 18%
4 - Huck 18%
5 - Guiliani 7%

[r3v07ution]

Hmm, will have to think about this one carefully...

[RonPaulCult]

Wow you put Huck 4th

I like it but I'm not so sure I'd BET it :)

[PimpBlimp]

Paul 23%
Huck 19%
Romney 19%
McCain 15%
Guliani 10%

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

pu55ies

[yongrel]

Clever Hans will win Iowa

[r3v07ution]

Clever Hans will win Iowa

The question is the percentage which Clever Hans will win by...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clever_Hans

[dirka]

Paul 31%
Romney 21%
Huck 16 %
McCain 12%
Thompson 11%
Guliani 5%

[Joe3113]

Paul 29%
Romney 21%
Huckabee 18%
McCain 18%
Giuliani 8%

[Psyclone]

Huckabee 27%
Romney 25%
McCain 17%
Thompson 15%
Paul 13%

Sorry, but McCain is having a comeback and has been endorsed by the major newspaper in the state, and Thompson has essentially been campaigning in Iowa non-stop since mid-December. I don't see how Dr. Paul is going to finish any higher than fifth.

[MikeStanart]

/Sigh

----------------
GOP

Huckabee 21%
Romney 19%
Paul 17%
Mccain 8%
Thompson 6%


------------------


This is if there isn't any snow

[RP=RonPaul=RedPill]

Way to keep up the faith Psyclone

[tsetsefly]

Way to keep up the faith Psyclone

he is just being realistic...

Iowans are pretty dumb if you havent noticed(just watch cspan and listen to the callers from Iowa), I am amazed that they get such an early caucus that has a lot of say in who the candidates will be...

I think Thomson campaigning will only hurt him they guy puts people to sleep when he speaks..

I predict 4th for Paul... and a hesitant 4th at that, frankly the campaign has not put much effort into Iowa, they are clearly focusing on NH, i think that is a mistake, imo...

[richk]

/Sigh

----------------
GOP

Huckabee 21%
Romney 19%
Paul 17%
Mccain 8%
Thompson 6%


------------------


This is if there isn't any snow

You may want to edit this prediction. Your votes only total up to 71%--your missing 29% of your vote.

[RevolutionSD]

Huckabee 27%
Romney 25%
McCain 17%
Thompson 15%
Paul 13%

Sorry, but McCain is having a comeback and has been endorsed by the major newspaper in the state, and Thompson has essentially been campaigning in Iowa non-stop since mid-December. I don't see how Dr. Paul is going to finish any higher than fifth.

people still pay attention to newspapers? :confused:

[richk]

Huckster 24%
Rommel 23%
Paul 15%
McCain 14%
Thompson 14%

[NocturnalC]

Romney 24%
Hucklebee 21%
Ron Paul 20%
McCain 15%
Giuliani 9%
Thompson 9%
Hunter 2%

We will be cheated out of votes if we aren't diligently watching. We will do better in NH.

[RP=RonPaul=RedPill]

he is just being realistic...

Iowans are pretty dumb if you havent noticed(just watch cspan and listen to the callers from Iowa), I am amazed that they get such an early caucus that has a lot of say in who the candidates will be...

I think Thomson campaigning will only hurt him they guy puts people to sleep when he speaks..

I predict 4th for Paul... and a hesitant 4th at that, frankly the campaign has not put much effort into Iowa, they are clearly focusing on NH, i think that is a mistake, imo...

There's a fine line between realism and outright pessimism. Pessimists do not have the monopoly on realism. I'm predicting 3rd. Turnout and the Orange Bowl will inflate Paul's numbers. These "dumb" Iowans won't show up to caucus anyways. They got more important things to do. Like watch the game.

[Cali4RonPaul]

I hope the Iowans can prove to the world that they are not "dumb" and put Dr. Paul #1.

[tsetsefly]

I hope the Iowans can prove to the world that they are not "dumb" and put Dr. Paul #1.

i would like nothing better than to be proven wrong...

[FreedomLover]

Huckabee 32%
Romney 28%
Paul 16%
Thompson 11%
McCain 8%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 1%

[ord33]

Huckabee 27%
Romney 24%
McCain 15%
Paul 12%
Thompson 11%
Guiliani 10%


Hunter 1%

A better showing for Dr. Paul in New Hampshire.

[Psyclone]

he is just being realistic...

Iowans are pretty dumb if you havent noticed(just watch cspan and listen to the callers from Iowa), I am amazed that they get such an early caucus that has a lot of say in who the candidates will be...

Umm, actually, Iowa always finishes 1st or 2nd annually in college entrance exam scores (i.e., ACT and SAT) so if Iowans are dumb it means that everyone else (except for Minnesota which sometimes comes in first) must be megadumb.

[nullzero]

Everyone is overestimating huckabee's numbers... people give this guy way to much credit. I doubt he will take first in Iowa. I think Rommey is going to come out on top especially since he has saturated all the advertising markets in Iowa. I think paul will come in 3rd... right behind Huckabee.

It will be more like this I think.

27% Rommey
22% Huckabee
16% Ron Paul
13% McCain
10% Guilani
8% Thompson
4% Other

[Birdlady]

I am not willing to bet when the dealer has the deck rigged!

Everyone should know that there WILL be voter fraud. We just have to wait and see how good of a job they are at hiding it. :rolleyes:

[N13]

1 Ron Paul 32%
2 Huckabee 24%
3 Romney 20%
4 McCain 12%
5. Thompson 11%
6 Ghoul 1%

[Goldwater Conservative]

Huckabee 24%
Paul 21
Romney 20
McCain 15
Thompson 12
Giuliani 6
Hunter 2

I think McCain and Thompson are "surging" mostly at Romney's expense, although he has the resources and organization to keep from getting bumped out of the top three. Huck won't win by the magical landslide some polls are predicting, but I do think his evangelical base will show up like they did for Pat Robertson in '88.

A combination of disproportionately underestimated support and high turnout among his backers will give Dr. Paul a shocking second place. He will get enough spotlight coming out of Iowa without being the center of attention that he can fly under the radar for an upset victory in New Hampshire.

Of course, there have to be absolutely no shenanigans with the vote count for me to put money down on this. ;)

[hawkeyenick]

Umm, actually, Iowa always finishes 1st or 2nd annually in college entrance exam scores (i.e., ACT and SAT) so if Iowans are dumb it means that everyone else (except for Minnesota which sometimes comes in first) must be megadumb.

Most of our people end up moving out of state though.

It's such an epidemic that the state is trying to come up with incentive plans for people to stay. Such as loan forgiveness, moving costs paid for, help with job attainment, etc.

[ClayTrainor]

Paul 34%
Huckabee 21%
Romney 21%
Thompson 11%
McCain 7%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 1%

[adpierce]

Umm, actually, Iowa always finishes 1st or 2nd annually in college entrance exam scores (i.e., ACT and SAT) so if Iowans are dumb it means that everyone else (except for Minnesota which sometimes comes in first) must be megadumb.

True, but hawkeyenick has a good point. However I think the older generations don't move out and they still are pretty smart on the national average. Iowa's education system was strong even back in the days most people's parents were going to school.

[Carole]

How about

Other 29% :D

[CJP]

Huckabee 29 %
Romney 28 %
Paul 13 %
McCain 13 %
Thompson 11 %
Giuliani 4 %
Hunter 1 %
Keyes 1 %

[damon04]

I'm all in:

Paul 25%
Huckabee 24%
Romney 19%
McCain 15%
Thompson 9%

[Joe3113]

Ron is a certainty to win if voter fraud does not take place. Second or third = fraud imo. The MSM polls show he is third and they are a severe underestimation as we have all discussed.

[nc4rp]

% chance that the vote count changes when while the Isreali company is counting all the precicnt votes to call teh tally in to the state chairman: 100% thats my only bet and ill bet my house, dog and gun on that one. and ill only make you pay teh Paul campaign $1.00 that should win him the 23 million they want in January. (unless noone will accept the bet which would be intellegent)

[nc4rp]

yea after fraud, Paul 3rd or 4th

[FreedomLover]

Huckabee 32%
Romney 28%
Paul 16%
Thompson 11%
McCain 8%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 1%

After the Huckabee meltdown today I have to change my guess:

Romney 29%
Huckabee 27%
Paul 14%
Thompson 13%
McCain 11%
Giuliani 5%
Hunter 1%

[Adamsa]

Ron is a certainty to win if voter fraud does not take place. Second or third = fraud imo. The MSM polls show he is third and they are a severe underestimation as we have all discussed.

Don't start making excuses already. :D

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

After the Huckabee meltdown today I have to change my guess:

Romney 29%
Huckabee 27%
Paul 14%
Thompson 13%
McCain 11%
Giuliani 5%
Hunter 1%

this will get too unwieldy if everyone amends their predictions on passing whims.

[Eponym_mi]

Romney 20%
Huckabee 20%
Paul 20%
McCain 20%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 8%
Hunter 1%

With Romney, Huckabee, and McCain cannabilizing each other, I think it is going to be a squeaker.

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

I think a lot of the people in this thread fall in love easily. :-)

[dw1345]

Romney- 22%
Paul- 19%
Huckabee- 17%
McCain- 16%
Giuliani- 13%

[Neo189]

Paul 35%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 20%
McCain 10%
Giuliani 5%

[CavortingChicken]

Paul 100%

[FluffyUnbound]

Romney 34
Paul 19
Huckabee 17

Everyone else in single digits.

Huckabee's people won't show up because his campaign organization is too weak. Romney's not rising here per se; it's just that his people show up and Huckabee's don't. The pastors and the Fair Tax people just won't get it done for Huck. Paul's number also spikes because of the low turnout environment [this number assumes the Iowa troops get the job done getting people to the caucus sites].

McCain and Thompson fail to break out because his people bail when it becomes apparent they have no shot. AND they have turnout problems even worse than Huckabee's.

In the aftermath of the caucus, Fox News headline: "Romney Wins Iowa Caucus; Huckabee Third". :-)

Huckabee's campaign takes a dirt nap after Iowa. Unfortunately, this provides Romney with a path to the nomination if we don't stop him [with McCain's help] in New Hampshire.

[FluffyUnbound]

I have one question [and concern] about the caucus process itself:

I know it's very intimate in many locations - everyone jammed together in a small space listening to speeches and talking to each other.

Given the bad blood out there this time around, what's the potential for...unpleasantness...at caucus sites?

Is there shouting, booing, verbal arm-twisting to change votes, etc.? What's the potential for that to get a bit out of hand, given the high motivation level of some supporters [on all sides]?

I've been in debate crowds and the tension was so high you could cut it with a knife. I don't know how much worse it would have been if everyone there had to interact in some way.

[Paul10]

......

[dreamcast65]

We need Dr. Paul to do well if we expect to get to 23 million.

[justatrey]

1 - Romney 30%
2 - Huck 26%
3 - McCain 14%
4 - Paul 12%
5 - Guiliani 9%

[icon124]

Paul 27%
Huck 24 %
Romney 19%
McCain 14%
Thompson 11%
Guliani 5%

[Trance Dance Master]

Predict the top 5 Republican finishers.

Assign a predicted percentage of the vote to each candidate.

For every percentage point you are off for EACH candidate, you owe $2 to Ron's campaign.

If someone in your predicted top 5 fails to make the Caucus top 5, the $2 multiplier is whatever the 5th place percentage is.

CAVEAT: For every Paul percentage point error, YOU OWE $10.

Whoever wins (donates the least) cannot be called a troll for an entire week.


GOP
-------------------

1 - Romney 27%
2 - Paul 20%
3 - McCain 18%
4 - Huck 18%
5 - Guiliani 7%
George W. Bush (41%), Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%)

I win! Oh wait, you meant the 2008 caucus, didn't you? OK, I'll go with that.

Ron Paul (41%), Rudy Giuliani (30%), John McCain (14%), Mitt Romney (9%), Fred Thompson (5%)

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

George W. Bush (41%), Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%)

I win! Oh wait, you meant the 2008 caucus, didn't you? OK, I'll go with that.

Ron Paul (41%), Rudy Giuliani (30%), John McCain (14%), Mitt Romney (9%), Fred Thompson (5%)

Are you smoking crack? lol

Huckabee lower than 5%?

[Trance Dance Master]

Are you smoking crack? lol

Huckabee lower than 5%?
He's not Rudy McRomneyson.

[BigMatt419]

Dear Ron paul supporters who think Dr paul will come in a rank lower then First.

@#$% You, I don't give a crap what you think is "realistic".


My Bet is
1 - Paul 99.1%
2 - Huck .3%
3 - McCain .3%
4 - Rom .2%
5 - Guiliani .1%

[TheLibertyTree]

Is there shouting, booing, verbal arm-twisting to change votes, etc.? What's the potential for that to get a bit out of hand, given the high motivation level of some supporters [on all sides]?
.

The potential is lower than you might think. Every caucus I've been too has been pretty dignified - the other people there are neighbors and the average age probably 45...

[NJNSB]

Romney 29%
Paul 27%
Huckabee 23%
McCain 14%
Thompson
Giuliani
Hunter

I think Romney has bought Iowa (barely) and less people than predicted will actually bother to show for Huckabee.

[Nailhead]

Romney........35%
Paul..............30%
Huckster.......20%
McCain.........10%
Giuliani...........3%
Thompson......2%

[edit: Aiming for 2nd is a good strategy that is not out of our reach and will pay off when the media has to accept the fact that ron paul beat one of their appointed front men in Iowa (Mitt/Huck)]

[cska80]

Taken from my previous post on a dead thread.

Things to keep in mind, and my prediction.

John McCain - I highly doubt the American public, let alone Iowans, will ever forgive McCain for his Amnesty Bill. Immigration will continue to be one of the top three issues in voters minds. He's also always talking about how he can work with anyone across the isle and find compromise. I think more and more people are realizing that compromise is the reason we are where we are today. Compromise with socialism only leads to a little bit of socialism until they come back for more.

Mike Huckabee - He's taken Religion as his shield from his record as well as his views on immigration. I think Bush has awaken people to those who call themselves conservatives and use something else to distract you from their past and record on things like taxes, etc.

Mitt Romney - I'm Agnostic so I have no bias here. I still don't think anyone is going to vote for a Mormon when it comes down to it. Especially, in a caucus situation where you have to stand up in from of your neighbors and colleagues and expose your support for a Mormon. It's different when you can just walk in and anonymously cast a vote.

Rudy Ghouliani - Sanctuary City. Social Liberal. Scandals. Multiple ex-wives. A New Yorker. I could go on but...do I really need to?

Fred Thompson - I predict Fred Thompson is going to do a lot better than people think. I believe he's another victim of the corruption in the polls. Although I do not support him, obviously, I think he is more conservative than the previous 4 candidates presented. This is what it all comes down to. Republicans DO NOT want another fake Conservative like Bush. It would mean the end to the party...even worse of a situation the party is in now.


So, my prediction is...

1. Fred Thompson
2. Ron Paul
3. Mike Huckabee
4. Rudy Ghouliani
5. Mitt Romney
6. John McCain
7. Duncan Hunter

[TwiLeXia]

1. Huckabee 22%
2. Romney 20%
3. McCain 19%
4. Paul 14%
5. Giuliani 10%
6. Thompson 7%

[Compulsive1]

Paul 32%
Romney 21%
McCain 20%
Huckabee 12%
Thompson 8%
Giuliani 6%
Hunter 1%


More of a wish list than prediction, but that's what I came up with.

[Galileo Galilei]

Ron Paul 20%

Third.

[LinearChaos]

lol at people in Iowa being stupid. Did they just get the Internets or something in Iowa? No. They pay just as much attention as anywhere else. Half my family either lives in Iowa or spent 90% of their lives there. They get hammered with poilitics every four years. Do you think they don't know who is who, or don't know how to use the Internet?

[Birdlady]

Bump!

Start paying up!

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

Lots of people owe a lot of money.. including ME!!!!