Keep your predictions on the down low for the time being

[davidhperry]

As we come up to the primaries in Iowa and NH, it's very tempting to make predictions about how we're going to do. While I love making predictions myself (most of us wouldn't be on this forum if we weren't political junkies), I think we should be very cautious about posting predictions.

We've seen a lot of attacks lately. In a way that's a badge of honor since people wouldn't be trying to bring us down if they didn't think we're going to have an effect - a big effect - on the outcome of these elections. Some of the opposing campaigns are just now beginning to realize how sizable our support is but it's too late for them to do anything about it at this point. :) That makes them feel threatened and the only thing left for them to do is lash out at us. We've seen examples of this recently.

Since the media and opposing campaigns are now publicly acknowledging our impact, I think we should expect them to start artificially raising expectations for how we're going to do in Iowa and NH. If they succeed in raising expectations too far, then they can bash us and marginalize Dr. Paul if we don't live up to them. Just like people tried to criticize us for "only" raising $4M and $6M in the money bombs when the goals were set at $10M.

So feel free to make predictions but please refrain from posting them publicly. We all know that people are in for a shock - let's not spoil the surprise for them. :) There are a lot of people browsing this forum who wish do harm and are looking for any angle they can find. For example, there are currently 426 anonymous "guests" lurking here and while most are probably casual RP supporters, I would bet money that at least 10-20 of them are reporters/bloggers/activists/etc. who are looking for ways to bring us down. We know what we're dealing with.

Please don't give them an inch.

[yongrel]

good point

[CelestialRender]

Aye, the time for posting predictions is over.

Now it's time to just give them a knowing smile.

[Original_Intent]

As we come up to the primaries in Iowa and NH, it's very tempting to make predictions about how we're going to do. While I love making predictions myself (most of us wouldn't be on this forum if we weren't political junkies), I think we should be very cautious about posting predictions.

We've seen a lot of attacks lately. In a way that's a badge of honor since people wouldn't be trying to bring us down if they didn't think we're going to have an effect - a big effect - on the outcome of these elections. Some of the opposing campaigns are just now beginning to realize how sizable our support is but it's too late for them to do anything about it at this point. :) That makes them feel threatened and the only thing left for them to do is lash out at us. We've seen examples of this recently.

Since the media and opposing campaigns are now publicly acknowledging our impact, I think we should expect them to start artificially raising expectations for how we're going to do in Iowa and NH. If they succeed in raising expectations too far, then they can bash us and marginalize Dr. Paul if we don't live up to them. Just like people tried to criticize us for "only" raising $4M and $6M in the money bombs when the goals were set at $10M.

So feel free to make predictions but please refrain from posting them publicly. We all know that people are in for a shock - let's not spoil the surprise for them. :) There are a lot of people browsing this forum who wish do harm and are looking for any angle they can find. For example, there are currently 426 anonymous "guests" lurking here and while most are probably casual RP supporters, I would bet money that at least 10-20 of them are reporters/bloggers/activists/etc. who are looking for ways to bring us down. We know what we're dealing with.

Please don't give them an inch.

While I agree with your proposal not to make predictions or heighten expectations, I really don't think the media will be raising expectations either.

They have spent 8 months repeating the "no chance" mantra, they are not going to risk people thinking he has any chance at this point. Sheeple might vote for him if they thought that.

I agree though, best to keep expectations low but still project confidence that we will do well. One thing I would predict to anyone that you are talking to about it is that we will outperform the poll numbers by a large margin. That's something they will remember when it happens, and maybe they will start wondering why the polls were so wrong...

[Menthol Patch]

We are going to reach 20 million dollars! We CAN do this. There is NO REASON we cannot!

[Michigan11]

We are going to reach 20 million dollars! We CAN do this. There is NO REASON we cannot!

A B S O L U T E L Y

[davidhperry]

Aye, the time for posting predictions is over.

Now it's time to just give them a knowing smile.

Agreed. We don't want to spoil the surprise. :)

[Dorfsmith]

Agreed. We don't want to spoil the surprise. :)

:)

[FreedomFirst]

I really think low expectations are what motivates us. We wouldn't be working nearly as hard if we thought he was a shoo-in. If we don't get too cocky and keep working as hard - or harder - as we always have... who knows?

[davidhperry]

I really think low expectations are what motivates us. We wouldn't be working nearly as hard if we thought he was a shoo-in. If we don't get too cocky and keep working as hard - or harder - as we always have... who knows?

That's right - this isn't our race to lose. We have to fight for every inch of it.

[szczebrzeszyn]

I just hope we won't see a flood of people who predicted 1st and the result was 3rd (just an example) and their 'we lost! we lost!' threads. Personally, I'm tired of all those predictions.
People! Post your Iowa predictions in a proper section, so I don't have to see them! :D

[FreedomWon]

"Please don't give them an inch."

At this point I totally agree.

[B]"Remember to always hide your weapons"
Lao Tsu

[bucfish]

Everybody take a minute to relax then focus on all the things you can do. But really focus on a grassroots cause canvassing or whatever you are good at and remmeber to represent RP well DO NOT BE CONFRONTATIONAL. But rather offer something to help spread the message of RP. His message is powerful and contains the true freedoms that we were promised by our Founders. I would never ask one to make a sacrifices but do a good budget cut out the things you do not really need and make good use of your time. Keep focus because their will be a lot of smearing going on. Do whatever you can and whatever you can comfortably do. Remember to take care of your own house first but as Kennedy said "Ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country"

May God Bless America!!!

[davidhperry]

I just hope we won't see a flood of people who predicted 1st and the result was 3rd (just an example) and their 'we lost! we lost!' threads. Personally, I'm tired of all those predictions.
People! Post your Iowa predictions in a proper section, so I don't have to see them! :D

Yes, that was one of my main motivations for pointing this out.

For every moneybomb we do, there are always people who have extremely lofty predictions about what we're going to do. Some even predicted that we were going to bring in $25M or more at the Tea Party.

I don't doubt that these people aren't sincere in their beliefs. However, we don't want to hype ourselves up because that leaves us more exposed to disappointment later.

As Dr. Paul has said numerous times, Iowa and NH are important but our whole campaign doesn't hinge on them - no matter if we do real well or poorly. We have the undisputed best grassroots organization of any of the GOP candidates. We don't have to dominate every state in order to be in great shape at the convention. That's really all that matters.

I'm not going to make a prediction about the election outcome but I will predict that we have a huge advantage in that we can outlast almost anyone else in the race. Like automobiles, campaigns need money to be able to keep going down the road. Fred and Huck are running on fumes and I bet McCain isn't exactly raking it in either.

Our campaign is the one with the most staying power: don't forget that!

[manny]

To be fair most of the unrealistic hyping will probably come from the MSM in the hours before.

On the day of the Ames straw poll if you searched Ron Paul on google news there were suddenly quite a few articles saying - "would he get 2nd or 3rd and prove his net popularity isn't just apammers?" etc.

This was despite them having ignored him for months, ridiculed his supporters and them knowing the Romney and Huck were putting all their eggs into the basket there. But they saw their chance and took it.

I have no idea what the result will be. But I know the next President won't be decided for 100% there - it's a long race. Far better to win with a 15th round knock-out than have a great first round and then fade. 'Go the distance' ought to be our motto.

The only thing I know for certain is that unless Ron gets 99% of the vote, the media will find some way to downplay his results. My prediction is that, unless he suffers a complete meltdown, the MSM take on it will be all about McCain's "comeback". Don't get mad - get motivated... then we can get even.

[voytechs]

+1