A look back at Ames - a little logic + Motivation = Success

[Perry]

Here are the results from the Iowa GOP straw poll:

1. Romney: 4516 (31.5)
2. Huckabee: 2587 (18.1)
3. Brownback: 2192 (15.3) XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
4. Tancredo: 1961 (13.7) XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
5. Paul: 1305 (9.1)
6. T. Thompson: 1039 (7.3)
7. F. Thompson: 203 (1.4)
8. Giuliani: 183 (1.3)
9. Hunter: 174 (1.2) XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
10. McCain: 101 (1)


Thoughts:
Brownback, Hunter & Tancredo are effectively done.
McCain will move up the pack taking votes from Romney Huckabee & Giuliani
I'm looking for Giuliani to be at the bottom of the pack. None of these candidates aside from Huckabee have likely increased their support base in Iowa since Ames so all candidates aside from McCain would, on a % scale, trend downword.
Pauls exposure in Iowa has probably quadrupled. That is to say that 4x as many people in Iowa now know who Ron Paul is as did in August.

In my humble opinion we are very realistically looking at a 2nd, 3rd or possibly even a first place finish in Iowa. This race is so tight that it is entirely possible that 25,000 votes takes Iowa. The question is can we get 25,000 people in a state of 3 million to the polls on January 3rd? That is less than 1% of the population. Our best hope lies in the fact that Ron Pauls supporters are HIGHLY motivated. Howard Deans supporters did not have a fraction of the passion as those that have come to understand Ron Pauls message and the dire straights that our nation is in today. January 3rd is the most important day. The rally of rallies! More explosive than any moneybomb! January 3rd is the day that no media outlet can deny and that no amount of money can buy. It is within our grasp. We have the numbers. For those of you who grow weary I say to you today that you must muster every piece of energy and motivation you have, which is your power, and weld it as if the very fate of the nation were in your hands.

This is possible!! Ron Paul can take Iowa!


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[Paul4Prez]

Ron Paul was polling at 2% in Iowa back then, yet won 9% of the vote at the straw poll. For comparison, Duncan Hunter was polling at 1%, and won 1% of the straw poll vote.

Ron Paul is now between 3% and 10% in the Iowa polls....

[ronpaulfan]

Here is another Recap of the straw poll.

WARNING: THIS WILL MAKE YOU VERY ANGRY

http://img.youtube.com/vi/nPyrcrVGL4o/default.jpg
Ron Paul: Insider on Ames, IA Straw Poll Voting (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPyrcrVGL4o)

[Flirple]

Here are the results from the Iowa GOP straw poll:

1. Romney: 4516 (31.5)
2. Huckabee: 2587 (18.1)
3. Brownback: 2192 (15.3) XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
4. Tancredo: 1961 (13.7) XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
5. Paul: 1305 (9.1)
6. T. Thompson: 1039 (7.3)
7. F. Thompson: 203 (1.4)
8. Giuliani: 183 (1.3)
9. Hunter: 174 (1.2) XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
10. McCain: 101 (1)


Thoughts:
Brownback, Hunter & Tancredo are effectively done.
McCain will move up the pack taking votes from Romney Huckabee & Giuliani
I'm looking for Giuliani to be at the bottom of the pack. None of these candidates aside from Huckabee have likely increased their support base in Iowa since Ames so all candidates aside from McCain would, on a % scale, trend downword.
Pauls exposure in Iowa has probably quadrupled. That is to say that 4x as many people in Iowa now know who Ron Paul is as did in August.

In my humble opinion we are very realistically looking at a 2nd, 3rd or possibly even a first place finish in Iowa. This race is so tight that it is entirely possible that 25,000 votes takes Iowa. The question is can we get 25,000 people in a state of 3 million to the polls on January 3rd? That is less than 1% of the population. Our best hope lies in the fact that Ron Pauls supporters are HIGHLY motivated. Howard Deans supporters did not have a fraction of the passion as those that have come to understand Ron Pauls message and the dire straights that our nation is in today. January 3rd is the most important day. The rally of rallies! More explosive than any moneybomb! January 3rd is the day that no media outlet can deny and that no amount of money can buy. It is within our grasp. We have the numbers. For those of you who grow weary I say to you today that you must muster every piece of energy and motivation you have, which is your power, and weld it as if the very fate of the nation were in your hands.

This is possible!! Ron Paul can take Iowa!


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Just playing devils advocate... You made all the positive points well but I think you are overlooking one negative factor when drawing comparisons to the straw poll which is that less people voted in that straw poll than will in the caucuses. Paul benefits from having a highly motivated base. And therefore the smaller the voter turnout overall, the more impact his base can have. This is why we can dominate the small straw polls but got fifth in Ames. This is why we wanted an ice storm on caucus night. Ron has fewer yet more motivated fans.

[Perry]

Just playing devils advocate... You made all the positive points well but I think you are overlooking one negative factor when drawing comparisons to the straw poll which is that less people voted in that straw poll than will in the caucuses. Paul benefits from having a highly motivated base. And therefore the smaller the voter turnout overall, the more impact his base can have. This is why we can dominate the small straw polls but got fifth in Ames. This is why we wanted an ice storm on caucus night. Ron has fewer yet more motivated fans.

This is a good point. My post is partially motivational yet if everyone gets out to vote it is very realistic. I believe two points that counter yours are that one, Paul is far more well known at this point than he was last quarter and secondly, which I did not mention previously, that Paul supporters will be dragging their families out to vote to an extent that we did not see in the straw polls. As most of us know a Paul supporter is much more likely to convince their family & friends than other candidates. I am personally at a 50%+ success ratio and I have no reason to believe I am extraordinary.

[Flirple]

This is a good point. My post is partially motivational yet if everyone gets out to vote it is very realistic. I believe two points that counter yours are that one, Paul is far more well known at this point than he was last quarter and secondly, which I did not mention previously, that Paul supporters will be dragging their families out to vote to an extent that we did not see in the straw polls. As most of us know a Paul supporter is much more likely to convince their family & friends than other candidates. I am personally at a 50%+ success ratio and I have no reason to believe I am extraordinary.

I feel very good about the possibility of a 3rd place finish (which would be amazing) and don't see us finishing below 4th. And either way that will be a major improvement over the Ames Straw poll.

[Perry]

I feel very good about the possibility of a 3rd place finish (which would be amazing) and don't see us finishing below 4th. And either way that will be a major improvement over the Ames Straw poll.

There is no question it will be tighter. Everyone's nerves will be on edge as the last votes are counted this time around.

[paulitics]

Lets not forget the free transportation provided by all others but Ron Paul. Plus we only paid for half the tickets vs Mitt Romney paying for everyone willing to sign their name. Take money out of this and the turnout would have been lower for Mitt Romney for sure.