Rasmussen National Poll for 12/30 (Wow)

[FreedomLover]

For the first time all year, Arizona Senator John McCain finds himself on top with support from 17% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. In the muddled GOP race, McCain becomes the third person to top the poll this month and the fourth since October. But his lead is statistically insignificant--Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are just a point behind at 16% and Rudy Giuliani is two points back at 15%. Slightly off the pace, but still within five points of McCain, is Fred Thompson at 12%. Ron Paul retains his base support at 7%.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The difference between first place on Ron Paul is just 10%. And there's no frontrunner, the top 5 are stastically tied for first place.

This is going to be exciting, this is the closest Presidential primary in years!

[constitutional]

"Ron Paul retains his base support at 7%." Hehe.

I hope no voting fraud happens. I think we can ace this.

[Adamsa]

If Ron does well in the primaries, then theres a real chance he could take the rest of America.

[jufreese]

can someone just bury me in the snow and come back and get me when its Nov

[Energy]

Damn polls :rolleyes:

What's really the point of pre-election polls anyway if not to sway?

[Azprint]

Too bad Tancredo dropped out. The more neo-cons on the ballot the better.

[Adamsa]

Too bad Tancredo dropped out. The more neo-cons on the ballot the better.

I think it helps Ron more than anyone else that he dropped out.

[Azprint]

I think it helps Ron more than anyone else that he dropped out.

Arguable.

[PimpBlimp]

All your base are belong to us.

[nist7]

ha!!!

This is GREAT news. The front runners are splitting the vote 5 ways even......hahaha!

[Dave Wood]

the part your missing is the missing 24% !!

remember how these polls are being done, sometimes he is in them sometimes hes not

RP owns the other catagory (24%) which any way you look at it makes him the frontrunner nationally and that 24% + 7% allowed by the pollsters as his "base" adds up to 31%

Take a look at his number on the AOL straw poll===31% do you see what I see?

It almost matches the zogby blind poll which had RP winning at 33% These numbers cant be coincidence. Maybe that is why the FOX is running away with its tail between its legs?

[Adamsa]

Arguable.

But the fact it is arguable is better that we know at least Ron is one of the candidates who benefitted from it. :D

[brumans]

This poll doesn't make any sense...
The numbers only add up to 67%... where is the other 33%?

[Azprint]

But the fact it is arguable is better that we know at least Ron is one of the candidates who benefitted from it. :D

;)

[Johnnybags]

top three and then pump Ghouls in Florida back into the spotlight, fact is as shown the polls mean nothing. There is no frontrunner. Most independent minded people will break Pauls way in states they can vote. Bedford NH, a perfect test case is jammed with Paul signs. Polls are meant to sway opinion. Lets get 40 to 70k NH'ers to vote Paul and we will do fine. Drive friends and family to the polls. Give em a free barbecue at your house if you must. Get em there.

[Dave Wood]

This poll doesn't make any sense...
The numbers only add up to 67%... where is the other 33%?

its actually 76% the 24% is ours

The original post doesnt read the same way as the rasmussen website listed it

It seemed to be 76% with RP 7% included--something seems off here.

[brumans]

its actually 76% the 24% is ours

Yeah.. I did the math wrong. Actually, I think you did too:

---
John McCain - 17%
Mitt Romney - 16%
Mike Huckabee - 16%
Rudy Giuliani - 15%
Fred Thompson - 12%
Ron Paul - 7%

Total: 83%

17% undecided maybe? I don't know.
---

[Cleaner44]

This just goes to show that Neocon voters can't decide which loser to run with. All of their candidates suck so they can't stick with any.

[bc2208]

Data from RasmussenMarkets.com suggest that Giuliani has a 29.6 % chance of winning the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney 24.5 %, John McCain 20.0 %, Mike Huckabee 12.4 %, and Fred Thompson 3.5 %.


IDIOTSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

[brumans]

Data from RasmussenMarkets.com suggest that Giuliani has a 29.6 % chance of winning the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney 24.5 %, John McCain 20.0 %, Mike Huckabee 12.4 %, and Fred Thompson 3.5 %.

They left out Ron Paul even though he is higher than Fred Thompson?

[Azprint]

Polls really mean nothing. Want an example? 2004 dems primary. Howard Dean was considered a front runner according to polls till primaries started, Edwards was number 2.Kerry was an underdog. And what happens then? Edwards and Dean win 2 states each the rest goes to Kerry. Polls are irrelevant.

[nist7]

They left out Ron Paul even though he is higher than Fred Thompson?

They probably think Ron Paul has 0% of winning the GOP nomination. Even if Ron Paul was polling at 90% nationally.....lol

[AgentPaul001]

As discussed this polling is showing some of the nationwide trends. Huckabee is dropping like a rock in most places, he won't win the nomination. Guliani and Thompson are both on downward trends. McCain is the only one with a significant boost nationwide and he will be a dangerous opponent for the nomination. Romney would be if he swept some early states, but I find that doubftful.

This is the closet Ron Paul has been to the frontrunner all year just a 10% difference. It could barely get better.

John McCain - 17% (Drop to <14%)
Mitt Romney - 16% (Drop to <14%)
Mike Huckabee - 16%
Rudy Giuliani - 15%
Fred Thompson - 12%
Ron Paul - 7% (Get 10%)

[Mark Rushmore]

Well. No longer can I say it's "almost" the perfect storm. It's arrived.

17/16/16/15/12

A beauty.

Take your state's 2000 Repub. primary voters.. divide by 5, and that's all that Ron Paul needs to draw to win even if all his support were new registration/historically inactive/etc.. Draw a good 7% out of that 2000 pool before you divide - and that's before a strong Iowa showing.

Good times.

[Triton]

"Ron Paul retains his base support at 7%." Hehe.

I hope no voting fraud happens. I think we can ace this.Hmmm, wasn't his "base" 1 or 2% a few months ago, according to the MSM? :D

[nc4rp]

well check iowa, Paul is now Tied with Guliani at 7%. and guilliani is the nation frontrunner!

[slamhead]

"Ron Paul retains his base support at 7%." Hehe.



I find this the most encouraging. Meaning of the people they poll they have not waivered in their support of him.

[Galileo Galilei]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The difference between first place on Ron Paul is just 10%. And there's no frontrunner, the top 5 are stastically tied for first place.

This is going to be exciting, this is the closest Presidential primary in years!

Let's adjust the Rasmussen poll for bias:

1) add 4% to RP because 16% of households only have a cell phone

RP at 11%

2) add 2% to RP because infrequent RP voters are being missed

RP at 13%

3) multiply RP's numbers by 1.5, because Rasmussen is still putting RP into a phone tree, this misses undecided leaners

RP at 19.5%

4) subtract 2% from the others because RP's gain has to come from somewhere

RP at 19.5%
McCain at 15%
Huckabee at 14%
Romney at 14%
Giuliani at 13%
Fred at 10%

5) Now adjust for voter turnout:

RP > strong advertising and organization = + 2%
McCain > weak on both = -2%
Huckabee > average on both = no adjustment
Romney > strong and average = +1%
Giuliani > average and weak = -1%
Thompson > weak and weak = -2%

Now adjust for rigged polls and its effect on perceptions:

Since the media says RP has no chance to win

RP >> subtract 3%
everyone else >> add 1%

FINAL NUMBERS

RP 18.5%
Romney 17%
Huckabee 15%
McCain 14%
Giuliani 13%
Thompson 9%

So there you have it, a scientific analysis says RP is leading in the polls.

[ronpaulyourmom]

Let's adjust the Rasmussen poll for bias:

1) add 4% to RP because 16% of households only have a cell phone

RP at 11%

2) add 2% to RP because infrequent RP voters are being missed

RP at 13%

3) multiply RP's numbers by 1.5, because Rasmussen is still putting RP into a phone tree, this misses undecided leaners

RP at 19.5%

4) subtract 2% from the others because RP's gain has to come from somewhere

RP at 19.5%
McCain at 15%
Huckabee at 14%
Romney at 14%
Giuliani at 13%
Fred at 10%

5) Now adjust for voter turnout:

RP > strong advertising and organization = + 2%
McCain > weak on both = -2%
Huckabee > average on both = no adjustment
Romney > strong and average = +1%
Giuliani > average and weak = -1%
Thompson > weak and weak = -2%

Now adjust for rigged polls and its effect on perceptions:

Since the media says RP has no chance to win

RP >> subtract 3%
everyone else >> add 1%

FINAL NUMBERS

RP 18.5%
Romney 17%
Huckabee 15%
McCain 14%
Giuliani 13%
Thompson 9%

So there you have it, a scientific analysis says RP is leading in the polls.

:D

[Paul4Prez]

If it becomes a McCain vs. Paul contest, we have a trump card:

John McCain needs public (taxpayer) funding, which will limit how much he can spend against the Democratic nominee.

Ron Paul has no problems raising money -- something that will be even more evident after we raise $23 million in January.

[ronpaulyourmom]

If it becomes a McCain vs. Paul contest, we have a trump card:

John McCain needs public (taxpayer) funding, which will limit how much he can spend against the Democratic nominee.

Ron Paul has no problems raising money -- something that will be even more evident after we raise $23 million in January.

It's not entirely clear yet whether or not John has taken the funding yet, in fact I think he hasn't.

[deedles]

can someone just bury me in the snow and come back and get me when its Nov

:D

I'm with you. It's almost too much to take:eek:

[ghemminger]

If it becomes a McCain vs. Paul contest, we have a trump card:

John McCain needs public (taxpayer) funding, which will limit how much he can spend against the Democratic nominee.

Ron Paul has no problems raising money -- something that will be even more evident after we raise $23 million in January.

Damn this thread just gave the best anyalysis I have heard in the last 6 months - thank you!

[hawks4ronpaul]

[Paul "maintains" 7%] Hmmm, wasn't his "base" 1 or 2% a few months ago, according to the MSM? :D

"We have always been at war with Eastasia."

http://hawks4ronpaul.blogspot.com/

[cero]

Let's adjust the Rasmussen poll for bias:

1) add 4% to RP because 16% of households only have a cell phone

RP at 11%

2) add 2% to RP because infrequent RP voters are being missed

RP at 13%

3) multiply RP's numbers by 1.5, because Rasmussen is still putting RP into a phone tree, this misses undecided leaners

RP at 19.5%

4) subtract 2% from the others because RP's gain has to come from somewhere

RP at 19.5%
McCain at 15%
Huckabee at 14%
Romney at 14%
Giuliani at 13%
Fred at 10%

5) Now adjust for voter turnout:

RP > strong advertising and organization = + 2%
McCain > weak on both = -2%
Huckabee > average on both = no adjustment
Romney > strong and average = +1%
Giuliani > average and weak = -1%
Thompson > weak and weak = -2%

Now adjust for rigged polls and its effect on perceptions:

Since the media says RP has no chance to win

RP >> subtract 3%
everyone else >> add 1%

FINAL NUMBERS

RP 18.5%
Romney 17%
Huckabee 15%
McCain 14%
Giuliani 13%
Thompson 9%

So there you have it, a scientific analysis says RP is leading in the polls.

ROFL THEY ADD UP THEY DO! :D

[hawks4ronpaul]

This poll doesn't make any sense...
The numbers only add up to 67%... where is the other 33%?

Maybe those are the neocon RINOs voting for Hillary.


http://hawks4ronpaul.blogspot.com/

[mosquitobite]

This just goes to show that Neocon voters can't decide which loser to run with. All of their candidates suck so they can't stick with any.

Yep. This is the PERFECT STORM for Dr Paul! :D

[mwkaufman]

Rasmussen still using a phone tree? That would be really retarded and could hurt us quite a lot. I'd be very encouraged if the polling was:

1. Fred Thompson
2. Rudy Giuliani
3. Mike Huckabee
4. Mitt Romney
5. John McCain

ROTATE ABOVE NAMES

6. Other
7. Undecided

IF Other

1. Duncan Hunter
2. Ron Paul
3. Undecided

[hambone1982]

can someone just bury me in the snow and come back and get me when its Nov

LOL.....me too!

[Galileo Galilei]

Rasmussen still using a phone tree? That would be really retarded and could hurt us quite a lot. I'd be very encouraged if the polling was:

1. Fred Thompson
2. Rudy Giuliani
3. Mike Huckabee
4. Mitt Romney
5. John McCain

ROTATE ABOVE NAMES

6. Other
7. Undecided

IF Other

1. Duncan Hunter
2. Ron Paul
3. Undecided

A friend of mine got polled by Rasmussen a few weeks ago. This was a good month after the November 5th moneybomb. He was not given RP as a choice at first, but was told "press 6 for some other candidate".

This is a huge bias. You have to remember that 1/3 to 1/2 of the voters do not have strong political feelings, and only vote because it is their "civic duty", and are heavily influenced by TV. These types of voters will not pick you in a poll if you are buried in a phone tree.

More details:

'Leaners' and Polling Bias
www.lewrockwell.com/orig8/lindgren1.html

[skinzterpswizfan]

A friend of mine got polled by Rasmussen a few weeks ago. This was a good month after the November 5th moneybomb. He was not given RP as a choice at first, but was told "press 6 for some other candidate".

This is a huge bias. You have to remember that 1/3 to 1/2 of the voters do not have strong political feelings, and only vote because it is their "civic duty", and are heavily influenced by TV. These types of voters will not pick you in a poll if you are buried in a phone tree.

More details:

'Leaners' and Polling Bias
www.lewrockwell.com/orig8/lindgren1.html

While that certainly isn't good that it is happening, this bodes really well for us because Paul seems to consistently be polling best in Rasmussen, and if he's not even listed initially as an option, support is likely much higher.