Fundraising numbers

[Bradley in DC]

So, being the political junkie I am, I couldn't wait for the FEC quarterly filing numbers and spent the past hour calling and emailing the campaigns....

Needless to say, no one gave me the draft of their report, and the ones most willing to talk were generally the ones I think knew the least. That said, I'm willing to make some statements (predictions) regarding cash on hand/money raised:

Giuliani raised $15 m with $15 m cash on hand (no debt)
Romney raised $14 m with $12 m cash (only $3.2 m if one subtracts loans from self)
Paul raised $2.4 m with $2.4 m cash (no debt)
McCain raised $10.4 m with $2 m cash (I suspect cash - debt = flat broke)
Brownback raised "nearly $1.5 m" (had $800k on hand last quarter)
Tancredo raised a bit more than $1.2 m with a bit less cash ($575 k) than previous Q.
Huckabee raised "comfortably more" than the $544k last Q, (had $320k cash - debt last Q)
Tommy Thompson raised $473,126 (including $75 loan from self) last Q cash - debt = $10 k; (total loan from self $100k)
Hunter, no new numbers, raised $538k with $273k cash first quarter
Gilmore, no new numbers, raised $203k with $2k cash - debt first quarter

[ladyjade3]

The Romney number minus the personal loans is really interesting. And I was wondering about the "2nd tier" candidates in comparison to Ron Paul. I think you can't selectively ignore Ron Paul anymore. You have to ONLY feature 2 or 3 in order to justify not including the good doctor.

[Dan Klaus]

makes me want to donate again..think I will next month...thanks for the update..

[Bradley in DC]

makes me want to donate again..think I will next month...thanks for the update..

Thank you, and you're welcome! Dr. Paul is, financially, the third most viable Republican!

[Bradley in DC]

Ok, making up a few more numbers (educated guesses plus what I've already figured out), Dr. Paul will not only have more cash on hand than anyone except Rudy and Mitt, but he will probably have about as much cash on hand (minus debt) as all of the rest of the Republicans combined!

[ChrisM]

Ok, making up a few more numbers (educated guesses plus what I've already figured out), Dr. Paul will not only have more cash on hand than anyone except Rudy and Mitt, but he will probably have about as much cash on hand (minus debt) as all of the rest of the Republicans combined!
I doubt that last claim, but I would like to see it happen nevertheless. I've been noticing that fundraising drives are not as stressed now that the quarter is over. The Students For Paul group, which was able to raise $40,000 in a week last quarter, is struggling to get $2,000 now.

Do you think this is consistent with overall Ron Paul fundraising? I hope not...

[Bradley in DC]

I doubt that last claim, but I would like to see it happen nevertheless. I've been noticing that fundraising drives are not as stressed now that the quarter is over. The Students For Paul group, which was able to raise $40,000 in a week last quarter, is struggling to get $2,000 now.

Do you think this is consistent with overall Ron Paul fundraising? I hope not...

I stand by my estimate. There are cycles, yes. I suspect this is a down time (holiday, etc.) and that it will pick up again after the debate August 5th, then the Straw Poll, then people start paying attention to the race again.

[dspectre]

If I'm interpreting what you said correctly, some of these guys do not have much money left in the bank. So will some of them be dropping out of the race soon?

[Bradley in DC]

If I'm interpreting what you said correctly, a lot of these guys do not have much money left in the bank. So will they be dropping out soon?

CNN is reporting McCain has $275 k after debts. I've made predictions on drop outs but I'll repeat them here:

Tommy Thompson says he will drop out if he doesn't win the Ames straw poll (he won't) next month.
Tancredo is going to drop out to run for re-election to the House (Dr. Paul, under Texas' LBJ law, is running for both); he will likely endorse Dr. Paul.
Gilmore has suspended his campaign because of detached retina surgery (don't want to think about it) and will run for Sen. Warner's seat in Virginia (or governor again).
Duncan "I'll use tactical nuclear weapons" Hunter scares the bejeezers out of me but thankfully is going no where and will drop out after New Hampshire or sooner.
Brownback will drop out after the Iowa caucuses (unless he wins, but he won't), if he stays in that long.
McCain (who is not mentally stable) will drop out after South Carolina, if he lasts that long.

Huckabee will be under a lot of pressure to run for the Senate for Pryor's seat but is basically running for Veep.

So, by the end of January or so, it will be Rudy, Mitt, Paul and Fred.

[dspectre]

CNN is reporting McCain has $275 k after debts. I've made predictions on drop outs but I'll repeat them here:

Tommy Thompson says he will drop out if he doesn't win the Ames straw poll (he won't) next month.
Tancredo is going to drop out to run for re-election to the House (Dr. Paul, under Texas' LBJ law, is running for both); he will likely endorse Dr. Paul.
Gilmore has suspended his campaign because of detached retina surgery (don't want to think about it) and will run for Sen. Warner's seat in Virginia (or governor again).
Duncan "I'll use tactical nuclear weapons" Hunter scares the bejeezers out of me but thankfully is going no where and will drop out after New Hampshire or sooner.
Brownback will drop out after the Iowa caucuses (unless he wins, but he won't), if he stays in that long.
McCain (who is not mentally stable) will drop out after South Carolina, if he lasts that long.

Huckabee will be under a lot of pressure to run for the Senate for Pryor's seat but is basically running for Veep.

So, by the end of January or so, it will be Rudy, Mitt, Paul and Fred.

Bradley,

Sorry for making you repeat yourself, I drop in and out of the boards. :)

[Bradley in DC]

Bradley,

Sorry for making you repeat yourself, I drop in and out of the boards. :)

No worries, the threads move so fast here, it's amazing to me. ;)

[Dan Klaus]

truthfully when Dr. Paul breaks out the MSM will attack him and he has to have the funds to bypass them and go directly to the voters with advertisements.


Agree wholeheartedly...its going to get worse the better RP does...charges of racism, conspiracy nut, and more will be coming toward the campaign in the near future when they see the current strategy of trying to marginalize him isn't working...

Also agree that having Thompson in the race will benefit Ron Paul in the end..

[Wyurm]

I love the optimism, but honestly I think Fred is biding his time. I believe he fully intends to jump in at the last minute. That way he advoids the controversy and plays off his acting career name recognition. I feel that either he knows, or he has someone advising him that if he speaks in front of people unscripted, he will come off as stupid and incompetent. However, if he allows his fame to pull him by waiting till the last second, he has a chance.

[RPR-omaha]

Fred is going to jump in. All the warhawks are convinced that the canidates are the ones with the probelms not the war. They think if they can spin it so they can win and be pro-war. They think Fred can be some savior all b/c he is from hollywood ans so was Regean. It is foolish and it will get fred. Even if he won the primaries he would get demolished by the democrat. If that happens hopefully the GOP would split.

[berkeleybound]

I doubt that last claim, but I would like to see it happen nevertheless. I've been noticing that fundraising drives are not as stressed now that the quarter is over. The Students For Paul group, which was able to raise $40,000 in a week last quarter, is struggling to get $2,000 now.

Do you think this is consistent with overall Ron Paul fundraising? I hope not...

We haven't been pushing this particular fundraiser as much. We'll probably do something bigger in August.

The fundraising numbers for the campaign as a whole haven't taken a downturn. I've done some projections based on #'s of online contributions. My best guess is that they've already raised another $650k this quarter. (which gives them 3.9 million for Q3 if donation rates stay flat). Hopefully, it doesn't stay flat, and there's an upswing of new supporters.

[Bradley in DC]

Ok, making up a few more numbers (educated guesses plus what I've already figured out), Dr. Paul will not only have more cash on hand than anyone except Rudy and Mitt, but he will probably have about as much cash on hand (minus debt) as all of the rest of the Republicans combined!

I made a prediction. The numbers are in: Dr. Paul has (about) as much cash on hand minus debt as all of the Republicans (except Rudy and Mitt) combined!

McCain $117 k
Brownback $966 k
Tancredo $848 k
Huckabee $329 k
Hunter $213 k
T. Thompson and Gilmore were negative (not counting them)

They have a total of $2.47 million cash - debt total between all of them!

[beermotor]

I think Fred will throw his money behind Rudy. That's what I think. I think he may be gunning for a VP nod.

[foofighter20x]

I think Fred will throw his money behind Rudy. That's what I think. I think he may be gunning for a VP nod.

Dunno 'bout that... I mean, why?

By the time 8 years of whoever is up, Fred will be 73-74 and be left sorta holding the bag on the scandals of his predecessor, assuming he goes for Pres then... Not worth it, imho... If he's gonna go, he needs to go now and go all the way for the top.