Can Ron Paul Win New Hampshire?

[me3]

http://blogcritics.org/archives/2007/12/30/031015.php

Excerpt:

Anything less than 2nd place in New Hampshire won't be startling enough to promote him to the status of top contender, and even getting second might not be enough. The way the primaries are structured there aren't really any other good opportunities for Paul to pull off that kind of surprise win, and none of the other early primary states except for maybe South Carolina are particularly friendly to Paul's message. If Paul doesn't make the top three in New Hampshire then it might be time to drop out, or mend fences and start campaigning for Vice President.

A win in New Hampshire might lead to an endorsement from libertarian-leaning South Carolina governor Mark Sanford which could add more momentum and result in a second primary win in South Carolina. Two early primary wins would give Paul enough legitimacy to also win other liberal or libertarian oriented states like California, Texas and Arizona. If he wins those three states then he actually is a real contender and would enter the convention with at least a quarter of the delegates, and no one would be laughing at him, that's for sure. It would certainly make for one hell of a Republican convention if nothing else.

So yes, I do think there's a small but real chance of Ron Paul winning the Republican primary in New Hampshire. If that does happen, then all bets are off and it could lead almost anywhere, even to the White House. I may be crossing my fingers and hoping, but I won't be holding my breath. It's still a long shot.

[jonhowe]

A very fair analysis. Thats why Im going up there this week to MAKE SURE we get NH!

[Concerned Supporter]

simple: no.

[Ozwest]

simple: no.
Simple question: Why?

[Gordon]

simple: no.

You're talking out your arse.

[Concerned Supporter]

because i believe the unpolled support wont be enough...

[Gordon]

because i believe the unpolled support wont be enough...

Sod off

[Luft97]

You're talking out your arse.

LOL tell em Gordon.

[Concerned Supporter]

telling people off won't make your dreams come true

[Gordon]

telling people off won't make your dreams come true

So you really are that desperate.

[NocturnalC]

Concerned Supporter: I can see you are very concerned.

[Gordon]

Concerned Supporter: I can see you are very concerned.

He's concerned that he won't ever get laid.

[Concerned Supporter]

So you really are that desperate.

i gave an answer with a reason why i doubt he will win NH

you told me to f-off

good job buddy

[NocturnalC]

Who are you concerned for?

[Gordon]

i gave an answer with a reason why i doubt he will win NH

you told me to f-off

good job buddy

No, I told you to sod off. There is a big difference.

Yes I could see your answer was smacking with cognitive drivel.

[Concerned Supporter]

Who are you concerned for?

ah, good question. the roots machine.


No, I told you to sod off. There is a big difference.

Yes I could see your answer was smacking with cognitive drivel.

pessimism should not be confused with a want for failure.

[Gordon]

ah, good question. the roots machine.

pessimism should not be confused with a want for failure.

LoL Ohh God, Nothing like cogent, well-reasoned, articulate, intelligent, discourse. But then if you are not capable of that...

[Concerned Supporter]

LoL Ohh God, Nothing like cogent, well-reasoned, articulate, intelligent, discourse. But then if you are not capable of that...

i think its fair to say all the angles have been hashed out about possible success in NH. growing support which might continue with a good showing in iowa. then you throw in another X factor of the unpolled support.

at this point its all personal opinion as to what will happen.

im pessimistic and you are optimistic (and rude).

lets leave it at that.

[noztnac]

He can win!

[Chadd Murray]

He won't win NH, I'm doubtful about second... but I still think 3rd could make a big enough ripple. Perhaps if he gets a solid 3rd in Iowa he will pull off a good 2nd, that would be my hope.

Realistically I think 4th in Iowa 3rd in NH is about where he'll end up, but I hope not.

[liberty_Forever]

Ron Paul will win NH if he can carry some momentum from Iowa.

YOU CAN HELP US DO THIS

*CRITICAL* Iowa Phone Banking
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=68614

[NocturnalC]

What does 3rd and 2nd get Ron in IA and NH? I'm not talking about gaining support in other states. I'm talking about delegates, etc?

My hope is that a suprise placing in Iowa will push him to the top in NH. I think it's a good possibility.

[Jeremiah]

No offense intended, but it doesn't matter what we believe will happen. The important thing is getting boots on the ground and getting the vote out. Anything else is dilettante and sophomoric, just like the MSM. Listen to RP. He never speculates.

[acroso]

Well we're into the last 9 days after X-mas, and it's do or die now.


If he takes 3rd and 3rd in those states he'll be set.
Huck is dead after Iowa if he doesn't take 1st.
McCain is dead after New Hampshire if he doesn't take 1st.

[peter_lifton]

No, I told you to sod off. There is a big difference.

Yes I could see your answer was smacking with cognitive drivel.

forget it he is not even a concerned Ron Paul supporter, he is a scared Romney supporter. Don't believe him if he insists he is for Ron Paul, wasting time on posts like this is counter productive. move on!

[jabrownie]

Still not a vote cast and coming with the negativity...yikes!

Yes, Iowa and NH are important, but for us they're not do or die states. We just have to finish 3rd in each and we'll be fine. Here's why:

After Iowa, NH, and S.C. comes the need for money. Between expensive states like Florida, and the sheer number of them on super tuesday (20+), a candidate simply cannot survive if they are in bankruptcy and/or have virtually no ads.

Thompson is getting blasted in both early states and recently had to go dark in, I think it was Iowa. There was a 'massive' effort on the front page of his website a few days ago with the theme of fill up the truck (little red truck with a gas pump) trying to raise under a quarter mil just so he could run an ad. Basically, he's broke, dropping like a rock in the polls, and w/o a strong Iowa/NH finish, he'll have to drop out.

McCain was all about done for, but there's been the resurgence effort. That will probably buy him some time, but he too is short on cash. Ron Paul had more money on hand then he did after the third quarter, so that should tell you something. I would look for a strong showing in NH, an average/subpar one in S.C., and then a drop out shortly thereafter.

Huckabee might just turn into a quick Huckabust. He will do well early on but the bottom line is that he doesn't have the money for a 20+ state push. He hasn't raised much thus far into the race; he's basically flat broke. The recent effort at a 'money bomb' brought in a grand total of 85k for the day. (That was even with the media touting the effort the day of the event). For this quarter he's about to finally hit 5 mil. Unless his early wins can steamroll and generate cash quick, he'll have to drop, and/or go dark in many of the super tuesday states.

Romney likewise is an artifical creation, but I think a slightly bigger threat then Huck. Romney's unlikables are the highest out there. Yes, he has been everywhere spending money like crazy, but the secret is that a bunch of it was his own personal cash. As of Q3, he's already put in over 17.4 million out of his own pocket. That's why he's betting on the early states. If he can take those, he'll be in for the long run. If not, then he'll have to chose between spending tens of millions more of his own cash, or dropping it. I would bet that he drops by super tuesday if he doesn't finish first or second in Iowa, NH, and S.C.

Ghouliani is probably the strongest out there. While he's been slipping, he's still in the lead nationally, still has the name, and still has cash on hand. He's playing this one smart, just gonna wait it out till it's down to a 2-3 horse race; that's why he's making his move in Florida. Frankly, Iowa and NH don't have many delegates, they are only useful if you need name recognition and/or some cash....the Ghoul has both already.

Ron Paul....beat expectations in Iowa with a 3rd finish, take a 2nd or 3rd in NH; then plop your 20+ mil down for the super tuesday races. By that point there will only be the Ghoul and either Mitt or Huckabee left; so it'll be a three horse race. Hang in there for the long run, keep up the grassroots financial support, and it'll probably be Ghoul vs. Paul in a national convention showdown. Winner unknown.....however, if the MSM doesn't pull a magic spin show, expect the Christian right to jump behind Paul at that point. He might not be their favority, but he beats the Ghoul any day. The only question will be whether Huckleberry/Romney will have dropped out by an early enough point in the race for Paul to be able to use the extra Christian right support as an end surge to pick up later state primaries. If not, then Ghoul will win the first round vote at the convention. If so, then the convention goes into multiple rounds and it's anybody's guess.

[WaterWine41]

All this negativity is ridiculous. What are YOU doing to make sure that he doesn't come in 4th place?

I started a meetup group that has ballooned to 56 members very quickly...

We've passed out slim jims at 2 gun shows.

Did some sign-waves on the main strip in town here during a blizzard.

Our meetup has written over 200 letters to Iowa and New Hampshire just in the past 2 weeks, and I have personally have written 60 and have another 30 on my desk here for after lunch.

I only work 15 hours a week (college student) and I've donated over $500 to the campaign, putting myself into a nasty debt when I should be out buying beer and taking girls on dates.

My meetup painted an 8 foot high RON PAUL billboard on an A-frame, put it on a trailer with a sound system, and is driving it to New Hampshire from Ohio on Jan. 2nd. I think 6 of my members are going up there to go door to door for 5 days before the primary.

I've written letters to the editor of every major and minor news publication in my area.

I could go on all day, but I come here to read and discuss how we can work to make Ron Paul WIN, not why he is going to lose. Put up or shut up.

[sunny]

http://blogcritics.org/archives/2007/12/30/031015.php

Excerpt:

YES!

[braumstr]

all I can say is that he gets my vote.

[Original_Intent]

Paul: Third in Iowa, First in New Hampshire.

These Guys will be Gone before Super Duper Tuesday:

Fred
Duncan
Rudy 50/50
McCain 80/20

Huckster will only still be in because Iowa will give him legs.
If McCain does very well in NH he might be around but I don't think that will happen.

If they are all still in for Super Duper Tuesday, this is to our advantage, I just don't think they will make it.

[AlexMerced]

Let's do the best that we can, and no matter what the resultsbe satisfied that we have ignited a movement the establishment will have to content with well after these elections are over.

[Adamsa]

Polls will change a lot after Iowa, so a strong finish for Paul will actually make it possible.

[skeptic]

1. Huck will flame out - perhaps on MTP today.
2. Ghouliani, Fred and Duncan will end up in the ditch.
3. Romney will be mortally wounded by from the attacks of Huckster.
4. McCain will survive. He has ALWAYS been a darling of the media.
5. Paul will survive.

It will come down to Paul and McCain.

[CountryboyRonPaul]

The only thing that matters is Voter Turnout.

If our voter turnout is in the 80 % range, which I believe is a fairly conservative estimate. Then we win 2nd maybe 1st in Iowa, and 1st in NH.

One thing I am sure of is that no other candidate will have voter turnout like we will, that is why these Straw Polls are so important, they show people's willingness and enthusiasm to get out and vote for a candidate, phone polls don't do that. We own the Straw Polls.

Huckabee will have the next highest turnout.

Bring along your friends to the Primaries and Caucuses, make sure you bring proof your a Republican for Caucuses.

[Feelgood]

"They've also got a very nice blimp." LOL

They need the Blimp circling Iowa and NH the day of their caucuses.

[Peace&Freedom]

Still not a vote cast and coming with the negativity...yikes!

Yes, Iowa and NH are important, but for us they're not do or die states. We just have to finish 3rd in each and we'll be fine. Here's why:


THANKS for the great breakdown of what is likely coming out of the next month. The big three variables are the media, the momentum, the money and the map (as in who will naturally play across the US). Given the hostility the establishment has demonstrated every step of the way to Paul, it is entirely possible he might get NO momentum from them coming out of a high finish in Iowa, and no bounce even doing the same in NH.

The media war against him may continue through Super Tuesday and beyond. They intend to crown the frontrunner with 'coverage momentum' from the 'top tier' ranks of candidates they have pushed for the last 10 months. Some here have been over critical of Thompson, Huckabee and McCain, when actually they serve Paul as an initial firewall to prevent Romney from breaking out with early victories. Neither should even still be in the race by Feb. 6, and Romney himself should drop by that point if he hasn't gotten traction, since by then only his pocketbook will be sustaining him. We need Romney to likewise stay in through that point as a secondary firewall, to offset Giuliani. The longer the 'traffic jam' of statist, pro-war contenders stay in to divide that side of the field, the better it looks for Paul.

[skeptic]

Huck did well on MTP. However, he was actually ALLOWED to answer questions - unlike Ron Paul. Same with Obama who followed. The hostility of the "press" is unmistakable. It shows we have to make sure we vote and get persuade others to do the same. I will vote for Ron in CA regardless of how he does elsewhere.

I still think Huck will implode via the religious war with Romney.

McCain and Paul will be the last ones standing.

[Ozwest]

THANKS for the great breakdown of what is likely coming out of the next month. The big three variables are the media, the momentum, the money and the map (as in who will naturally play across the US). Given the hostility the establishment has demonstrated every step of the way to Paul, it is entirely possible he might get NO momentum from them coming out of a high finish in Iowa, and no bounce even doing the same in NH.

The media war against him may continue through Super Tuesday and beyond. They intend to crown the frontrunner with 'coverage momentum' from the 'top tier' ranks of candidates they have pushed for the last 10 months. Some here have been over critical of Thompson, Huckabee and McCain, when actually they serve Paul as an initial firewall to prevent Romney from breaking out with early victories. Neither should even still be in the race by Feb. 6, and Romney himself should drop by that point if he hasn't gotten traction, since by then only his pocketbook will be sustaining him. We need Romney to likewise stay in through that point as a secondary firewall, to offset Giuliani. The longer the 'traffic jam' of statist, pro-war contenders stay in to divide that side of the field, the better it looks for Paul.
If Ron Paul does well in Iowa and New Hampshire, the media will have no choice but to cover him.

My guess is they will pull every trick in the book to throw dirt his way and marginalize him.

Only problem is, even the dim-witted sheep will slowly begin to realize somethings up, and the plan may back-fire.

[MozoVote]

If Ron Paul does well in Iowa and New Hampshire, the media will have no choice but to cover him.

Only if he gets a #2 in one of these. Traditionally, the #3 finisher gets some press, as an alternative for the leaders to keep an eye on. But because this is RP we're talking about, I think two third place finishes would be generally ignored by the MSM.

It could be a different story after Super Tuesday. Paul and one other candidate might be the only ones still in it.

[Molly1]

The media wants to run a woman in pants against a man in a dress.

Once the public wakes up to what is being done to them, Dr. Paul will be the only viable option.

Can Dr. Paul win New Hampshire? Hell, yes!


In New Hampshire, the Independents can vote in either primary. They will make the winner.

And, Independents, by their very nature love freedom. They need to learn he is the only candidate for peace and the Constitution.



White House hopefuls woo swing voters in N.H.



NASHUA, N.H. - When Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney dropped by a diner here this week to chat up voters, Harry Harris, 51, was happy to meet him and didn’t mind accepting one of his campaign stickers.

However, when asked by reporters if he was in the Romney camp, Harris made clear his vote is still up for grabs.

“There are way too many people and it’s too much information,” said Harris, a limousine driver, as he had breakfast at Norton’s Classic Cafe. “I’m still trying to read up on everything I can.”



Harris is an independent who is typical of many New Hampshire voters who have not finalized their choice with only 10 days left before that early-voting state’s primary contest. The nominating contest has tightened on both the Democratic and Republican sides in the last few weeks. In New Hampshire, predicting the race is made all the more difficult by the state’s high proportion of independent voters.

People in New Hampshire, particularly the independent voters, wait until late before they make a final decision,”

http://blogs.reuters.com/trail08/2007/12/30/white-house-hopefuls-woo-swing-voters-in-nh/

[Jeremy]

I'm pretty sure the official campaign gets A LOT of donations from NH.

[nate895]

I think the best situation for us is a third or better in Iowa, coupled with an Obama third, Edwards second, and Clinton first in Iowa. I say this because that will make it virtually impossible for Obama to challenge Clinton, and so the independents in NH turn-out to the Republican primary, which will be interesting. Guess who wins amongst anti-war Independents amongst the Republicans; Ron Paul.

[jgmaynard]

Yeah, Iowa doesn't influence us that much - Clinton finished 5th in Iowa in '92 and 2nd in NH. But the more anti-war Inds we have go from voting Dem to Rep in NH, the better off we are...

JM

[Goldwater Conservative]

Great point about Sanford, and it's one I've considered before. If Paul gets a strong third in Iowa (that is, it can't be downplayed as "everyone else wasn't really trying") and a strong second in New Hampshire, I can see Sanford giving Paul what I'm presuming would be a coveted endorsement. He's a politician, though, and isn't about to risk all his political capital until he sees Paul is viable.

[Adamsa]

Yeah, Iowa doesn't influence us that much - Clinton finished 5th in Iowa in '92 and 2nd in NH. But the more anti-war Inds we have go from voting Dem to Rep in NH, the better off we are...

JM

The media was obsessed with Clinton though.

They are not with Paul.

[Gordon]

He won't win NH...

Oh look, another shirt-lifting troll lacking cognitive abilities. And you're certainly talking out your arse.

He's going to crush all competition in NH. This is where he has his best chance. With independents.

[jgmaynard]

The media was obsessed with Clinton though.

They are not with Paul.

He really wasn't until he went on 60 Minutes to explain the Gennifer Flowers story, and that was after Iowa.

JM

[dvictr]

people can register to vote the day of the event!!!


this is a major advantage to ron paul primarily because the supporters understand the importance of voting as opposed to the casual supporter of one of the other candidates that assume there frontrunner wont need another vote.

ron paul will embarrass the other candidates and FAUX news in NH

[jgmaynard]

Yes, I've just learned of several new people that I didn't know of who are registering that day to vote for Ron. :D

JM