We're gnna win it! Look at these numbers!

[weatherbill]

I think we;'re gonna win it all!
A couple things to base this off of.....

#1 - a normal primary only gets about 10% support out for each candidate
The pationate Ron Paul type support will get nearly 100% out to actually vote
Don't forget, IOWA and NH and MIchigan is very cold. Alot of old folks don't get out to vote becasue of that. They just wait for the general election to come.

ok, now here are the numbers.

taking 10 million voters in NH, a poll I looked up showed Romney at 30%, McCain at 25%, Giuliani at 14%, Huckabee at 10%, RON PAUL at 6% and Thompson at 4%.
Of course this poll is BS, with other polls showing RP at 10%, but let's just keep the 6% to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Now if we have 10 million NH voters tunr out,

Romney at 30% is 3 million voters at 10% turnout is 300k actual votes
McCain at 25% is 2.5 million voters at 10% turnout is 250k actual votes
Giuliani at 14% is 1.4 m votes at 10% is 140k actual votes
Huckabee 10% is 1 million votes at 10% is 100k actual votes
RON PAUL 6% is 600k votes at 80% turnout is 480,000 votes.........WE WIN!

[Micahyah]

the difference in turnout rate will be the key to everything

[yongrel]

i think predicting 100% turnout would be a mistake. I think 60% is a more likely figure.

[shadow26]

I think we;'re gonna win it all!
A couple things to base this off of.....

#1 - a normal primary only gets about 10% support out for each candidate
The pationate Ron Paul type support will get nearly 100% out to actually vote
Don't forget, IOWA and NH and MIchigan is very cold. Alot of old folks don't get out to vote becasue of that. They just wait for the general election to come.

ok, now here are the numbers.

taking 10 million voters in NH, a poll I looked up showed Romney at 30%, McCain at 25%, Giuliani at 14%, Huckabee at 10%, RON PAUL at 6% and Thompson at 4%.
Of course this poll is BS, with other polls showing RP at 10%, but let's just keep the 6% to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Now if we have 10 million NH voters tunr out,

Romney at 30% is 3 million voters at 10% turnout is 300k actual votes
McCain at 25% is 2.5 million voters at 10% turnout is 250k actual votes
Giuliani at 14% is 1.4 m votes at 10% is 140k actual votes
Huckabee 10% is 1 million votes at 10% is 100k actual votes
RON PAUL 6% is 600k votes at 80% turnout is 480,000 votes.........WE WIN!


If you have 10 million voters turn out in NH; we have one of the biggest voter fraud stories in the history of the Republic!

[MRoCkEd]

with your theory

50% voter turnout for us ties us for first

[Mattsa]

Problem is.............

They will still try to steal votes with fraud and meddling

If Fox news has the confidence to exclude Ron Paul from the TV debate, perhaps it is because they know they can steal the vote and make Ron Paul's support look much smaller than it actually is.

Have we got anyone keeping an eye on how the elections are conducted to prevent fraud?

[ronpaulyourmom]

The poll numbers are not based on all registered voters, it's based on all voters who self-identify an intention to vote in the primary.

[MRoCkEd]

/\ is that good or bad for us

[weatherbill]

No no, ron paul type supports are passionate....we will get like 95% turn out....... but I have my numbers at 80% of 6%......we really have 10%, so the numbers are looking even better realistically.

[MRoCkEd]

i hope you are right

[Ninja Homer]

If I remember right, I think NH has a pretty high voting percentage in the primaries compared to the rest of the country.

Another thing to consider though is that the polls are taken for the most part from registered Republicans who voted in the 2004 primaries. NH Republicans in 2004 had a VERY low turnout, because they didn't like the choices. There were pro-Bush pro-war voters, and there were some who wrote in Democrat names as a protest, but most of them just didn't bother showing up. Bush won the primary, but John Kerry actually came in 2nd in the NH Republican primary in 2004 via write in votes. These are the people being called for the current "scientific polls".

Yet another thing to consider is the independent voters. They are the group that will decide the NH primary.

[Slist]

No no, ron paul type supports are passionate....we will get like 95% turn out....... but I have my numbers at 80% of 6%......we really have 10%, so the numbers are looking even better realistically.

95% of the ron paul supporters on this forum will vote... but many others that just "like" ron paul won't...
I guess the turnout is closer to 50-60%... but according to your calculations that would suffice :-)

[Mahkato]

Overconfidence will kill us.

Get out there and win some new supporters!

[Paul4Prez]

Voter turnout is much higher in New Hampshire than in the rest of the country. Even though Ron Paul is fairly popular there, we can't count on supporters of the other candidates not turning out.

We actually have a better chance in Iowa, if we get people to the caucuses, and an even better chance in Nevada (Ron Paul is popular AND turnout is dismally low.)

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

the number of voters does not matter with your model.

The "voting coefficient" is what matters = %voters * %turnout

[rs3515]

Now if we have 10 million NH voters tunr out


Huh? Your numbers (and analysis) are all out of whack. 10 million? LOL ... in the 2004 presidential election just about 675,000 NHers cast votes.

There are about 750,000 registered voters in New Hampshire, and about 220,000 voted in the 2004 Democratic Primary. Where are you coming up with your numbers?

[Jeremy]

I bet Huck will have over 10%... but still :p

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

Polling crosstabs have usually indicated that about 50% of those who say they like Ron Paul will actually go out and vote for him in the primary, and that figure's usually around 30-40% for the other candidates.

I'd say that if the ballots were cast today, it'd probably look more like:

Romney at 30% is 3 million voters at 30% turnout is 900k actual votes
McCain at 25% is 2.5 million voters at 30% turnout is 750k actual votes
Giuliani at 14% is 1.4 m votes at 30% is 420k actual votes
Huckabee 10% is 1 million votes at 30% is 300k actual votes
RON PAUL 6% is 600k votes at 50% turnout is 300,000 votes.........

Which means we are NOT yet where we need to be in NH to win. I'm beginning to increasingly suspect that NH isn't as "live free or die" as the media makes them out to be. Seems like Iowa and SC are actually more receptive to Ron's libertarian message these days...

[Jeremy]

Huh? Your numbers (and analysis) are all out of whack. 10 million? LOL ... in the 2004 presidential election just about 675,000 NHers cast votes.

There are about 750,000 registered voters in New Hampshire, and about 220,000 voted in the 2004 Democratic Primary. Where are you coming up with your numbers?

He's not saying those are the numbers... he's just using it as an example.

[Pete]

The record turnout for Republican caucuses in Iowa was 5.3% in 1988. It usually runs about 5%.

I seriously think we can RWN Iowa based on turnout.

Shock and awe!

[Scott Wilson]

Polling crosstabs have usually indicated that about 50% of those who say they like Ron Paul will actually go out and vote for him in the primary, and that figure's usually around 30-40% for the other candidates.

I'd say that if the ballots were cast today, it'd probably look more like:

Romney at 30% is 3 million voters at 30% turnout is 900k actual votes
McCain at 25% is 2.5 million voters at 30% turnout is 750k actual votes
Giuliani at 14% is 1.4 m votes at 30% is 420k actual votes
Huckabee 10% is 1 million votes at 30% is 300k actual votes
RON PAUL 6% is 600k votes at 50% turnout is 300,000 votes.........

Which means we are NOT yet where we need to be in NH to win. I'm beginning to increasingly suspect that NH isn't as "live free or die" as the media makes them out to be. Seems like Iowa and SC are actually more receptive to Ron's libertarian message these days...


Good post.

The number one issue which is preventing many (and I mean many) Republicans from supporting Ron Paul is their view that he is naive in regard to Islamofascism.

This is why in all the campaigning we do (door to door, flyering, gun shows etc.) we must clearly address this issue.

Articles like the one linked below are a good start...

Ron Paul's Strategy on Terrorism (written by David Gornoski)
http://files.meetup.com/593250/Ron%20Paul%27s%20Strategy%20on%20Terrorism.doc

Also the Ron Paul: A Man For All Seasons DVD is very effective.

Both these items clearly explain Ron Paul's angle on terrorism and how to address it.

[rs3515]

He's not saying those are the numbers... he's just using it as an example.

If you're going to come up with an example, why not at least base it on realistic numbers and turnout?

[Joe3113]

Overconfidence will kill us.

Get out there and win some new supporters!

+111111111


Gotta win by a landslide to protect against vote fraud.

and DONT say its a conspiracy.....you know its gonna happen :mad:

[Frankie Lee]

oops