John of Des Moines
12-29-2007, 12:59 PM
My Caucus Turnout Calculation:
Doctor Paul does have a base of support in Iowa, he does have the most Iowa donors of the Republicans - it's getting those people to go to the caucus. Here's a liberal calculation of Paul caucus goers - don't hold me to it. I've tried to calculate out cross-pollination of these various groups.
Meetup Groups: There's about 500 Iowa domiciled Meetup group members. That includes supporters who have attended the meetup meetings but for whatever reason haven't joined the group. If each of these 500 influence 10 friends to attend the caucus that's 5,000 votes.
Facebook: The Campaign has 50,000 Facebook members, assuming 1.5% are Iowa residents equals 750. However this demographic has historically a high failure rate in showing their support on caucus night but let's assume because of Paul's powerful message two-thirds of those can influence ten others that's another 5,000
Traditional Republicans: Of the 600k registered Republicans assume one half of one percent come out and caucus for Paul. 3000.
Anti-war supporters: These are likely Democrats who would support Gravel or the Kooch man but don't want to go to a D caucus and end up having to join another candidate's group yet they want to express their anti-war feelings. An unknown to me, wild guess: 500.
The Fairfield factor: Home of the free thinking Maharishi University of Management, formerly known as Maharishi International University with 930 students 50 or so faculty and a staff of 200. Since most of those are not permanent residents let's assume they can influence 3.5 others to vote Paul so 4,100 more
Christian & Homeschoolers: These are the smart ones who can see through Huck's smoke and mirrors nice guy image. Say 1,000.
Traditional Libertarians: I've heard numbers of 10K in Iowa so say 1,000 caucus for Paul.
RP Forum Boards: There are 10900 members, if 1,000 of those can influence 1 Iowa friend or family member to caucus 1,000 more.
Meetup Groups ................... 5,000
Facebook ............................ 5,000
Traditional Republicans ....... 3,000
Anti-war supporters ............... 500
The Fairfield Factor .............. 4,100
Christian & Homeschoolers . 1,000
Traditional Libertarians ....... 1,000
RP Forum Boards ................ 1,000
........................................... 20,600 - Total
A wild card could be Alex Jones. I've heard he's got 50,000 listeners in Iowa. He needs to harp all next week for them to go to the caucus (or stop listening to him).
Again, I think this is a liberal estimate, so take with a grain of salt.
Doctor Paul does have a base of support in Iowa, he does have the most Iowa donors of the Republicans - it's getting those people to go to the caucus. Here's a liberal calculation of Paul caucus goers - don't hold me to it. I've tried to calculate out cross-pollination of these various groups.
Meetup Groups: There's about 500 Iowa domiciled Meetup group members. That includes supporters who have attended the meetup meetings but for whatever reason haven't joined the group. If each of these 500 influence 10 friends to attend the caucus that's 5,000 votes.
Facebook: The Campaign has 50,000 Facebook members, assuming 1.5% are Iowa residents equals 750. However this demographic has historically a high failure rate in showing their support on caucus night but let's assume because of Paul's powerful message two-thirds of those can influence ten others that's another 5,000
Traditional Republicans: Of the 600k registered Republicans assume one half of one percent come out and caucus for Paul. 3000.
Anti-war supporters: These are likely Democrats who would support Gravel or the Kooch man but don't want to go to a D caucus and end up having to join another candidate's group yet they want to express their anti-war feelings. An unknown to me, wild guess: 500.
The Fairfield factor: Home of the free thinking Maharishi University of Management, formerly known as Maharishi International University with 930 students 50 or so faculty and a staff of 200. Since most of those are not permanent residents let's assume they can influence 3.5 others to vote Paul so 4,100 more
Christian & Homeschoolers: These are the smart ones who can see through Huck's smoke and mirrors nice guy image. Say 1,000.
Traditional Libertarians: I've heard numbers of 10K in Iowa so say 1,000 caucus for Paul.
RP Forum Boards: There are 10900 members, if 1,000 of those can influence 1 Iowa friend or family member to caucus 1,000 more.
Meetup Groups ................... 5,000
Facebook ............................ 5,000
Traditional Republicans ....... 3,000
Anti-war supporters ............... 500
The Fairfield Factor .............. 4,100
Christian & Homeschoolers . 1,000
Traditional Libertarians ....... 1,000
RP Forum Boards ................ 1,000
........................................... 20,600 - Total
A wild card could be Alex Jones. I've heard he's got 50,000 listeners in Iowa. He needs to harp all next week for them to go to the caucus (or stop listening to him).
Again, I think this is a liberal estimate, so take with a grain of salt.