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View Full Version : Why do polls not show Ron Paul's real support?




Chao
12-28-2007, 06:38 PM
I'm sure this has been mentioned several times in many threads, but why is it again that RP's support isnt reflected in the polls taken right now? It has something to do with WHO they are polling but I can't quite remember. I'm discussing why his money has supposedly not translated into votes with someone atm, so it would help.

FrankRep
12-28-2007, 06:40 PM
I don't have a land line phone (only a cellphone), therefore, I don't get called for polls.

That's a big reason.

nist7
12-28-2007, 06:40 PM
The polls only consider "likely GOP primary voters." These are the same population who re-elected Bush in 2004....aka these are the very core of the current GOP. Also, the national polls only call those with landline telephones.

Of course, some have been converted to RP even after voting for Bush in 2004.

The thing is, RP is drawing alot of support from those people that are not "likely GOP primary voters" because you have democrats, independents, apathetic voters, and new voters.

This is why the national polls are underestimating Dr. Paul's support.

Jeremy
12-28-2007, 06:41 PM
Some (most? all?) of the phone polls don't even have an option to choose Ron Paul.

LibertyForever
12-28-2007, 06:41 PM
Pauls support base is not just made up of republicans. These polling companies only poll REPUBLICANS who voted in the last election(2004) His base is also made of Libertarians, Constitutionalists, Apathetic Voters, New voters(just of age) and Democrats.

For Example, My dad hasnt voted since '92 or '96, when he voted for Perot(he's indepedent, now registered republican)

My mom votes every election but is a democrat, now registered Republican

My twin brother and I, now 18 and elegible to vote Are republicans, and registered to Vote for the Good Dr.

Poll's wouldnt pick up anyone in my family that i just mentioned.

Chao
12-28-2007, 06:41 PM
Ah, that was it. Thanks :)

Oliver
12-28-2007, 06:42 PM
Because in the US, in Polls they use to ask registered republicans who voted
republican in the last elections as well.

...while new Voters, people who didn't vote republican in the last election or
never voted Republican before are ignored.

Democracy galore.

OptionsTrader
12-28-2007, 06:44 PM
I'm sure this has been mentioned several times in many threads, but why is it again that RP's support isnt reflected in the polls taken right now? It has something to do with WHO they are polling but I can't quite remember. I'm discussing why his money has supposedly not translated into votes with someone atm, so it would help.

Because polls of "likely republican voters" does not poll:
1) Disaffected Republicans that did not vote Republican in the last round of elections, because Bush and Cheney have lead in a manner that is extremely counter to their campaign promises. (I am in this camp, and many Republicans are). The size of the polled "likely Republican voter" group is small because of this disaffection.
2) First time voters
3) Cell phone users
4) Independents
5) Democrats (possibly large support here from the 70% of Americans that want the idiotic "war on terror" to end NOW)
6) Libertarians
7) Constitution party members
8) Other third party candidates
9) And possibly the largest reason, the fact that Ron Paul is not listed in many GOP polls at all.

Just Come Home
12-28-2007, 06:44 PM
I'm sure this has been mentioned several times in many threads, but why is it again that RP's support isnt reflected in the polls taken right now? It has something to do with WHO they are polling but I can't quite remember. I'm discussing why his money has supposedly not translated into votes with someone atm, so it would help.



It's simple... There's literally no way for any poll looking for "likely Republican voters" to find new converts who had previously dropped out, or Democrats who are changing affiliation in order to vote for Dr. Paul. They simply have no way of efficiently, and reliably doing this. In essence, their craft is becoming obsolete with the emergence of the Internet candidate.

nist7
12-28-2007, 06:45 PM
Because polls of "likely republican voters" does not poll:
1) Disaffected Republicans that did not vote Republican in the last round of elections, because Bush and Cheney have lead in a manner that is extremely counter to their campaign promises. (I am in this camp, and many Republicans are)
2) First time voters
3) Cell phone users
4) Independents
5) Democrats
6) Libertarians
7) Constitution party members
8) Other third party candidates
9) And possibly the largest reason, the fact that Ron Paul is not listed in many GOP polls at all.

10) Apathetic voters (Citizens who have not voted in a longtime or have never even voted at all)

On the NPR blog where they asked RP supporters to describe themselves....there are alot of people who have never voted or haven't voted in a longtime.

Jeremy
12-28-2007, 06:45 PM
Oh, but take a look at this poll =)

http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2007/12/21/straw-poll-dec-21-jan-4/

FrankRep
12-28-2007, 06:46 PM
Plus, I'm not a registered Republican.

:rolleyes: