Iowa Indepndent.com has Paul a solid third in caucus vote

[Badger Paul]

:)Iowa GOP Caucus Power rankings from the Iowa Independent blog

www.iowaindependent.com

The Republican race in Iowa remains as unpredictable as it was a month ago. Gov. Mike Huckabee surged, waned, and has steadied his position slightly ahead of Gov. Mitt Romney. Former Sen. Fred Thompson, who was expected to move up after his recent swing through the state and his high-profile Iowa endorsements, has failed to gain much steam. Sen. John McCain, who was close to writing Iowa off a month ago, has received newspaper endorsements and renewed attention to coincide with his improving chances nationally.

Today, Iowa Independent releases its final round of power rankings, designed to answer the question, "If the caucuses were held tonight, what would be the results?" The rankings are derived from impressions we received from activists, campaign officials, seasoned political observers, and rank-and-file caucus-goers, but at the most basic level, they are based on the gut feelings and instincts of our writers, who have watched the race unfold here from the beginning.

A lot can change in six days, and we expect that it will. But if the caucuses were held tonight, this is how we think they would turn out:

First Place

Mike Huckabee -- No doubt about it, Huckabee has firmed up the support of social conservatives and his nice guy routine resonates with enough people that he would likely win Iowa if the caucuses were held tonight. He drew 400 people to a rally in Orange City on the Saturday before Christmas and another 200 people in Sheldon the same day. He seems to generate more enthusiasm than any other candidates in the Republican field.

Second Place

Mitt Romney -- It's time to see if Romney's experienced, well-paid staff knows how to close the deal. Romney's poll numbers have rebounded in the state in recent days and the questions his surrogates have raised about Huckabee's years as governor in Arkansas continue to sway small numbers of voters. But it remains to be seen if his strong organization will give him an edge over Huckabee, whose supporters are less organized but perhaps greater in number.

Third Place

Ron Paul -- Rival campaigns are beginning to nervously speculate that Paul will finish in the top three on January 3. Paul broke double digits in at least two polls for the first time this week and he seems particularly strong in areas of the state where the media has less of an impact on political deliberations -- especially in rural northwest and southern Iowa. Check out a Ron Paul supporters' websites and you'll see detailed discussions about caucus rules and strategy. The Paulites are more ready for caucus night than most observers realize.

Fourth Place

John McCain -- Upward Momentum -- Undecided Republicans are breaking toward McCain more than most would have expected, and the additional attention he's receiving in New Hampshire and South Carolina is translating to more coverage in Iowa in the final days of the campaign. While newspaper endorsements may not make much of a difference in the GOP race, the surprising number of Iowa newspapers who have endorsed the Arizona senator have at least made more caucus-goers receptive to his message. And recent news from Pakistan gives him an opportunity to highlight the importance of national security experience.

Fifth Place

Fred Thompson -- We can again report that we're hearing reports that a newly energized Thompson has hit the campaign trail in Iowa. But we've said that so many times in the past six months that we don't necessarily believe it ourselves. Still, with Rep. Steve King and prominent social conservative Bill Salier on the campaign trail for him, it's hard to believe he hasn't gained some traction in the state.

Sixth Place

Rudy Giuliani -- Who would have believed that "America's Mayor" would have so much trouble coalescing support in Iowa? Perhaps Florida will be better for him.

Seventh Place

Duncan Hunter

[Adamsa]

Ron Paul's the comeback kid! The Lincoln crap lately has been crap.

[smartguy911]

Ron Paul -- Rival campaigns are beginning to nervously speculate that Paul will finish in the top three on January 3. Paul broke double digits in at least two polls for the first time this week and he seems particularly strong in areas of the state where the media has less of an impact on political deliberations -- especially in rural northwest and southern Iowa. Check out a Ron Paul supporters' websites and you'll see detailed discussions about caucus rules and strategy. The Paulites are more ready for caucus night than most observers realize.

:-)

[Ozwest]

This is very good news.

Three hundred students are about to hit the streets!

[ashlux]

Their power rankings are *exactly* what I'm predicting.

[hellah10]

i hope hope hope that third place is in sight :)

second place is not impossible either now

[GOILLINI121]

In reference to Huckabee:

"He drew 400 people to a rally in Orange City on the Saturday before Christmas and another 200 people in Sheldon the same day. He seems to generate more enthusiasm than any other candidates in the Republican field."

Are you kidding me? I think it's pretty obvious who generates the most enthusiasm among the Republican field and it's not Huckabee, as much as the MSM wants it to be. I don't see Huckabee supporters buying blimps, mini-blimps, sign waving constantly, making signs, appearing at other supporters rallies, etc. Also, if they think that 200 or 400 people is a lot for a rally they haven't been to Ron Paul's rallies!

[Perry]

I needed to hear this today.

[Micahyah]

This matches my prediction as well.

Oh I can't wait for that January 5th debate when over half the candidates are officially BELOW Ron Paul.

[Bradley in DC]

Iowa Independent is a collaboration of bloggers and journalists across Iowa with the goal of breaking news and influencing the conversations about issues that face our state. Serving over 70,000 page views per month (based on an average of July, August, and September 2007), we are Iowa's largest online-only news outlet.

[Adamsa]

second place is not impossible either now

Every single piece of info so far says that for anyone who isn't Huck or Romney, it is impossible.

[Ozwest]

i hope hope hope that third place is in sight :)

second place is not impossible either now
There's a good chance that Tim Russert will have Huckabees guts for garters on this weekends Meet the Press.

He's going to have a tough time dealing with issues on foreign policy, and Russerts researchers are digging for dirt as we speak.

If things go very badly, who knows, we might sneak into second place.:D

[Paulitician]

I hope that group is correct! I'd love it, however, if Fred Thompson takes 4th place instead of John McCain.

[peter_lifton]

Every single piece of info so far says that for anyone who isn't Huck or Romney, it is impossible.

Expect Paul to get first place. If he does, wonderful. If he doesn't I'll be mad as hell and not going to take it anymore by calling people in NH.

Rage for freedom made this campaign what it is and what it make it successful.

[FreedomLover]

Expect Paul to get first place. If he does, wonderful. If he doesn't I'll be mad as hell and not going to take it anymore by calling people in NH.

Rage for freedom made this campaign what it is and what it make it successful.

I'll be happy with 4th or 3rd place. 3rd would be great, a perfect jumpoff point to NH (assuming Huckabee will get 1st...which is most likely).

2nd is possible, but I really doubt it's gonna happen.

[TooConservative]

:)Former Sen. Fred Thompson, who was expected to move up after his recent swing through the state and his high-profile Iowa endorsements, has failed to gain much steam.


Fifth Place

Fred Thompson -- We can again report that we're hearing reports that a newly energized Thompson has hit the campaign trail in Iowa. But we've said that so many times in the past six months that we don't necessarily believe it ourselves. Still, with Rep. Steve King and prominent social conservative Bill Salier on the campaign trail for him, it's hard to believe he hasn't gained some traction in the state.

Did anyone see The Fred begging for a measly $100K to run TV ads in Iowa? LOL.

YouTube - Fred on the bus in Iowa (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TF9fQl_iD9U)

[Bradley in DC]

Truthfully, I know better than to make predictions in politics, but this scenario seems plausible. As jaded as I am about these things, I immediately start reading skeptically and looking for the weaknesses (source? arguments? facts? etc.).

So, after checking out quickly a group/cite I had never heard of previously, let me point out also, that it's probably a shameless plug by internet savvy bloggers looking to boost their number of web hits by taunting us like this. :mad:

Then again, if they believe that "Ron Paul" = "web hits" then maybe, just maybe, they also believe the rest of what they wrote--and have reason to do so.

I'd love to have Huckabee beat Romney (which would help us in NH) and for us to beat McCain, Rudy and Thompson.

[mwkaufman]

I hope that group is correct! I'd love it, however, if Fred Thompson takes 4th place instead of John McCain.

I think this will happen, Thompson's people are the second most likely to turn out, and McCain's are the second least likely.

[Just Come Home]

Every single piece of info so far says that for anyone who isn't Huck or Romney, it is impossible.


I don't believe them. I believe second place is most definitely possible. There's no way they could possibly know how much support Ron Paul has. How can they measure first time voters or democrats who flipped to Republican to vote for Paul?

They have no way of measuring

[Zappa's Brain]

I plan to work Orange City next week to claim some of the Huck junk.

[RonPaulFTFW]

We will take them by storm!!

[Gordon]

Truthfully, I know better than to make predictions in politics, but this scenario seems plausible. As jaded as I am about these things, I immediately start reading skeptically and looking for the weaknesses (source? arguments? facts? etc.).

So, after checking out quickly a group/cite I had never heard of previously, let me point out also, that it's probably a shameless plug by internet savvy bloggers looking to boost their number of web hits by taunting us like this. :mad:

Then again, if they believe that "Ron Paul" = "web hits" then maybe, just maybe, they also believe the rest of what they wrote--and have reason to do so.

I'd love to have Huckabee beat Romney (which would help us in NH) and for us to beat McCain, Rudy and Thompson.

Tosser j/k

[wgadget]

http://www.iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1733

[MRoCkEd]

prove them wrong...


..by getting first or second!

[jake]

the media will go insane when it happens :)

[Paulitician]

We must have huge turn out for the straw popular poll and of course delegates! :)

[Cleaner44]

That means 2nd place easy, maybe even first.

[constitutional]

Huckabee: "He drew 400 people to a rally in Orange City on the Saturday before Christmas and another 200 people in Sheldon the same day. He seems to generate more enthusiasm than any other candidates in the Republican field."

That's scary... I doubt.. I doubt... he has the support though. How can a candidate overnight come out as a frontrunner?

[Paulitician]

Huckabee: "He drew 400 people to a rally in Orange City on the Saturday before Christmas and another 200 people in Sheldon the same day. He seems to generate more enthusiasm than any other candidates in the Republican field."

That's scary... I doubt.. I doubt... he has the support though. How can a candidate overnight come out as a frontrunner?
Exactly, they must have never been to a Ron Paul rally... thousands of people show up. That's what really matters, showing up and participating this time around. I hope people didn't forget to participate in the caucus but went to rallies because it made them feel good. I do think, however, that Huckabee will be first though. And it wont be because of dirty tricks or anything. He has the genuine support of regular caucus goers. That's just the way it is.

[AlexAmore]

Huckabee: "He drew 400 people to a rally in Orange City on the Saturday before Christmas and another 200 people in Sheldon the same day. He seems to generate more enthusiasm than any other candidates in the Republican field."

That's scary... I doubt.. I doubt... he has the support though. How can a candidate overnight come out as a frontrunner?

"Last weekend in Iowa, Paul, running for the Republican presidential nomination, was greeted by 700 whooping fans at Iowa State University in Ames and another 300 at a rally in Des Moines." - msnbc.com article in OCTOBER 2007.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21516892/

Ron Paul was beating the current Huckabee in OCTOBER.

[wgadget]

Regular caucus goers=little blue-haired ladies and old men with double chins and pot bellies

[Ara825]

"Check out a Ron Paul supporters' websites and you'll see detailed discussions about caucus rules and strategy."

I cringe everytime I read something like this. It makes me think they are hinting to the supporters of the other candidates to use Ron Paul supporter websites to educate themselves on what they need to do.

Grrrrr

[phixion]

Huckabee: "He drew 400 people to a rally in Orange City on the Saturday before Christmas and another 200 people in Sheldon the same day. He seems to generate more enthusiasm than any other candidates in the Republican field."

That's scary... I doubt.. I doubt... he has the support though. How can a candidate overnight come out as a frontrunner?

Because the media presented him as such.

Pete

[ItsTime]

Ron Paul was pulling 600 and 700 people crowds!

subtract the media at Hucks events and you really have around 50 people LOL


Huckabee: "He drew 400 people to a rally in Orange City on the Saturday before Christmas and another 200 people in Sheldon the same day. He seems to generate more enthusiasm than any other candidates in the Republican field."

That's scary... I doubt.. I doubt... he has the support though. How can a candidate overnight come out as a frontrunner?

[uncle saddam]

"Check out a Ron Paul supporters' websites and you'll see detailed discussions about caucus rules and strategy."

I cringe everytime I read something like this. It makes me think they are hinting to the supporters of the other candidates to use Ron Paul supporter websites to educate themselves on what they need to do.

Grrrrr

I can only hope that if someone is that dedicated to learning about the issues and process, they'll be educated enough to support RP.

No such thing as bad press, but I see what you're saying. We don't need to give anyone else any more fuel.

[AlexMerced]

"Check out a Ron Paul supporters' websites and you'll see detailed discussions about caucus rules and strategy."

I cringe everytime I read something like this. It makes me think they are hinting to the supporters of the other candidates to use Ron Paul supporter websites to educate themselves on what they need to do.

Grrrrr

bring it, is what I say, I do believe even if they do have turnout we'll still out number them

People really underestimate how many people really don't care at all

[Suzu]

subtract the media at Hucks events and you really have around 50 people LOL

Most of whom are there out of curiosity, or because they have nothing better to do, or want a good laugh.

[jlink7]

"Last weekend in Iowa, Paul, running for the Republican presidential nomination, was greeted by 700 whooping fans at Iowa State University in Ames and another 300 at a rally in Des Moines." - msnbc.com article in OCTOBER 2007.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21516892/

Ron Paul was beating the current Huckabee in OCTOBER.

Not to rain on everybodies parade, but 400 and 200 in Orange City and Shelby IS more significant than 700 and 300 in Ames and Des Moines. Des Moines is the capital, it has lots of people. Ames is a college town, of course it would be easy to get 700, they're a big demographic for RP.

Orange City and Shelby are SMALL TOWNS, not even classified as cities. 400 in the same place when there isn't a football game or some other sporting event/graduation taking place is a big deal.