JPFromTally
12-28-2007, 12:29 PM
In this 12/9 poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm) Republicans are asked:
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?"
Approve: 58%
Disapprove: 34%
Undecided: 8 %
Obviously, the numbers for Dems are a lot lower (7% approve).
Taking a page from Don Rumsfeld, the 58% is what I call Bush "dead-enders." Meaning they fall for the lines about "fighting them over there so they don't fight us over here."
However, the 34% is they key number... These are people who, like me, are Republicans who don't like the war, see GWB as not being all that conservative and DO NOT want to vote Democrat.
Imagine if AOL had done the poll this way:
"Are you going to vote for a PRO-WAR status quo candidate who wants to continue the Bush policies or Ron Paul?
Ron Paul would lose 69% to 31%.
Now in 2004 I did not vote in the primaries (I knew GWB was winning so what was the point?) and I did not vote for GWB against Kerry (though I was sure tempted). However, I do know a lot of anti-war Repubs who did vote for GWB because he was the lesser of two evils.
I've always said since day one that RP has 30% of the Repub/Conservative Independent who are anti-war and the rest of the field can divy up the other 70% amongst themselves.
However, what has surprised me is that I was wrong in thinking Rudy and Mitt would divide the 70% almost equally. I did not think the race would be as fractured amongst the pro-war conservatives.
A lot of people around here ask who our second choice would be. Unlike most, I have tried really hard to give them the benefit of the doubt but there are way too many deal breakers:
Mitt: Wants to expand executive authority. Lies constantly.
Huck: Another folksy-southern governor with no foreign policy experience. Also lies a lot.
McCain: Bomb, bomb Iran? 'nuff said.
Giuliani: I lived in NYC during his tenure and nobody liked him including me.
Fred: Did you see the things he was saying on Hannity last night?
So essentially, there is 1/3 of anti-war Republicans/Conservative Independents who have NO SECOND CHOICE. Thus the AOL poll is DEAD ON!
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?"
Approve: 58%
Disapprove: 34%
Undecided: 8 %
Obviously, the numbers for Dems are a lot lower (7% approve).
Taking a page from Don Rumsfeld, the 58% is what I call Bush "dead-enders." Meaning they fall for the lines about "fighting them over there so they don't fight us over here."
However, the 34% is they key number... These are people who, like me, are Republicans who don't like the war, see GWB as not being all that conservative and DO NOT want to vote Democrat.
Imagine if AOL had done the poll this way:
"Are you going to vote for a PRO-WAR status quo candidate who wants to continue the Bush policies or Ron Paul?
Ron Paul would lose 69% to 31%.
Now in 2004 I did not vote in the primaries (I knew GWB was winning so what was the point?) and I did not vote for GWB against Kerry (though I was sure tempted). However, I do know a lot of anti-war Repubs who did vote for GWB because he was the lesser of two evils.
I've always said since day one that RP has 30% of the Repub/Conservative Independent who are anti-war and the rest of the field can divy up the other 70% amongst themselves.
However, what has surprised me is that I was wrong in thinking Rudy and Mitt would divide the 70% almost equally. I did not think the race would be as fractured amongst the pro-war conservatives.
A lot of people around here ask who our second choice would be. Unlike most, I have tried really hard to give them the benefit of the doubt but there are way too many deal breakers:
Mitt: Wants to expand executive authority. Lies constantly.
Huck: Another folksy-southern governor with no foreign policy experience. Also lies a lot.
McCain: Bomb, bomb Iran? 'nuff said.
Giuliani: I lived in NYC during his tenure and nobody liked him including me.
Fred: Did you see the things he was saying on Hannity last night?
So essentially, there is 1/3 of anti-war Republicans/Conservative Independents who have NO SECOND CHOICE. Thus the AOL poll is DEAD ON!