Will Thompson drop out when we beat him in Iowa?

[Bradley in DC]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/12/28/thompson-wont-be-happy-with-third-in-iowa/

Thompson: Won't be happy with third in Iowa
Posted: 11:25 AM ET

Watch Thompson on CNN's American Morning Friday.

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Republican Fred Thompson seems to be raising his expectations in Iowa, telling CNN Friday he would not be happy with a third place finish there.

"I would not be satisfied with third, quite frankly. I think we can do better than that…that's why they play the game," Thompson told CNN's John Roberts. "The pollsters and the experts were wrong in Iowa in 1980, and they were wrong in 1988, and they were wrong in 1994, and the numbers show that a large number of folks in Iowa have not made up their mind."

Most recent polls place Thompson a distant third in the Hawkeye State, behind Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. In a L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll released late Thursday, Thompson registered 10 percent among likely GOP caucus goers, compared to Huckabee's 36 percent and Romney's 28 percent.

Thompson is currently on a final campaign blitz of the state, although he recently pulled his television advertising there.

[mwkaufman]

I don't think Thompson drops out before South Carolina, and I don't think that's a bad thing.

[Ozwest]

I don't think Thompson drops out before South Carolina, and I don't think that's a bad thing.
+1

[bgky4paul]

Is Fred Thompson still running for President? ;)

[Bradley in DC]

Is Fred Thompson still running for President? ;)

No, he never was, but the Mrs. is running for First Lady! :D

[Badger Paul]

He'll drop out. He can't exactly "rebound" in New Hampshire and and losing to Paul and Huckabee would make it impossible for him to win South Carolina.

And when he does drop out he'll be quite happy to do so.

[seapilot]

It may be better for Ron Paul that he stays in the race to split the pronation building vote, yet it seems now Mr. Thompsen is seeking an excuse to quit as he expected to win this nomination without showing up.

[Kregener]

Looks like a nice night for a 'coon hunt...

[Badger Paul]

You know what seapilot? You're right. Fred's setting the bar high because he knows if he doesn't reach it he can gracefully exit.

[Santana28]

i think he'll drop after a bad showing in iowa to save himself the embarrassment of completely flopping in NH... but thats just me

[SovereignMN]

I'm sticking to my prediction:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=61214&highlight=Thompson

1) Thompson will drop out after Iowa and endorse McCain. The goal will be to try and give McCain a push in NH and SC.

2) McCain will still lose NH and SC and drop out soon after.

3) Rudy will lose Florida and be effectively out of the running by Super Tuesday. I think he'll drop out but he may still be technically running but he'll have no cash, no support and no momentum.

By Super Tuesday it will be a 3 man race...Huckabee, Romney and Paul.

[Santana28]

I'm sticking to my prediction:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=61214&highlight=Thompson

1) Thompson will drop out after Iowa and endorse McCain. The goal will be to try and give McCain a push in NH and SC.

2) McCain will still lose NH and SC and drop out soon after.

3) Rudy will lose Florida and be effectively out of the running by Super Tuesday. I think he'll drop out but he may still be technically running but he'll have no cash, no support and no momentum.

By Super Tuesday it will be a 3 man race...Huckabee, Romney and Paul.

The first 2 make alot of sense, but i disagree with #3. i think due to Huck's lack of funding he will have no choice left but to withdraw after SC at the very latest and either endorse Rudy or be picked up as his VP choice in an effort to swing his voters back over to Rudy. McCain/Romney will have the same problem... one of them will decide to drop out after 3 losses, and then endorse the other as his VP pick.

In essence, i think that when they see spreading the vote thin is not working against Ron Paul, then they will try to reconsolidate the vote and i think they will be very open about their VP choices before its all over. So we'll have Rudy/Huckabee, McCain/Romney, and of course, Ron Paul, Ron Paul!

[TheIndependent]

The irony of complaining about a possible third-place finish when he won't even get out of his bus most of the time isn't lost on me.

[Galileo Galilei]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/12/28/thompson-wont-be-happy-with-third-in-iowa/

Thompson: Won't be happy with third in Iowa
Posted: 11:25 AM ET

Watch Thompson on CNN's American Morning Friday.

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Republican Fred Thompson seems to be raising his expectations in Iowa, telling CNN Friday he would not be happy with a third place finish there.

"I would not be satisfied with third, quite frankly. I think we can do better than that…that's why they play the game," Thompson told CNN's John Roberts. "The pollsters and the experts were wrong in Iowa in 1980, and they were wrong in 1988, and they were wrong in 1994, and the numbers show that a large number of folks in Iowa have not made up their mind."

Most recent polls place Thompson a distant third in the Hawkeye State, behind Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. In a L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll released late Thursday, Thompson registered 10 percent among likely GOP caucus goers, compared to Huckabee's 36 percent and Romney's 28 percent.

Thompson is currently on a final campaign blitz of the state, although he recently pulled his television advertising there.

Fred pulled his TV ads because he spent all his money on his bloated campaign staff. Remember, this same Fred took in $10 million in the third quarter and had over $6 million in the bank on October 1.

His donations dried up after all his idiotic blunders were broadcast on TV.

[Bradley in DC]

Rudy will lose Florida and be effectively out of the running by Super Tuesday. I think he'll drop out but he may still be technically running but he'll have no cash, no support and no momentum.

By Super Tuesday it will be a 3 man race...Huckabee, Romney and Paul.

I agree with your final four, but Rudy has a lot of institutional support that will carry him longer than you say.

[jgmaynard]

It's been said since Reagan that the Republican Party stood on a stoll with three legs: military, social conservatives and libertarians. We could realistically see the party split along those three lines. The question is who is the military candidate: 9ui11ani, McCain or Romney. The other two obviously being Huck and Paul. We may be watching history in the making.

JM

[SovereignMN]

The first 2 make alot of sense, but i disagree with #3. i think due to Huck's lack of funding he will have no choice left but to withdraw after SC at the very latest and either endorse Rudy or be picked up as his VP choice in an effort to swing his voters back over to Rudy. McCain/Romney will have the same problem... one of them will decide to drop out after 3 losses, and then endorse the other as his VP pick.

In essence, i think that when they see spreading the vote thin is not working against Ron Paul, then they will try to reconsolidate the vote and i think they will be very open about their VP choices before its all over. So we'll have Rudy/Huckabee, McCain/Romney, and of course, Ron Paul, Ron Paul!

I don't think Huckabee has to drop out if he loses SC. He could win Michigan before then or possibly Florida afterwards.

If Huckabee wins Iowa and then loses NH, Michigan, SC and FL then you might be right. He'd be finished by Super Tuesday.

[Santana28]

It's been said since Reagan that the Republican Party stood on a stoll with three legs: military, social conservatives and libertarians. We could realistically see the party split along those three lines. The question is who is the military candidate: 9ui11ani, McCain or Romney. The other two obviously being Huck and Paul. We may be watching history in the making.

JM

you know, its funny you say that. when i was out gathering petition signatures a couple weeks ago in iL, i came across this old chiseled war-worn polish immigrant guy. he was very intimidating but when i told him who the petition was for, he said very enthusiastically "For ron paul, i do this! i youtube him!" which was nice enough. And then he went on a little rant telling me how Democracy in America isn't even Democracy with only two choices, and how in Poland they have something like 20 or 30 different political parties to choose from. Regardless of how this election turns out, we have GOT to do something about this screwed up 2 party system.

[Bradley in DC]

Regardless of how this election turns out, we have GOT to do something about this screwed up 2 party system.

When we take over the Republican Party, it will be interesting to see where the neocons go. ;)

[SovereignMN]

I agree with your final four, but Rudy has a lot of institutional support that will carry him longer than you say.

The intstitutional support will drift towards the candidate that they perceive has the best chance of winning. If Rudy finishes 4th or worse in Iowa and NH and loses Florida that support will flock to Romney.

[McDermit]

I hope he stays in for a while

[Bradley in DC]

I hope he stays in for a while

Nah, I want to feed the vultures. It's fun to watch them circling. Besides, the stories of which candidate they'll on next will help tank the next few more quickly (we have the dedicated supporters and funds to ward off the vultures). We need to start picking off the other candidates sooner rather than later. The campaign is too accelerated and too condensed this time to drag out this game.

[Mom4Ron]

I doubt he'll drop out. That probably involves filling out forms and doing stuff.