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View Full Version : Robert Novak: third-place finish in Iowa is not out of the question




ReallyNow
12-28-2007, 04:55 AM
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24174&s=rcmp

3.

Rep. Tom Tancredo's (Colo.) decision to drop out of the race at the last minute equally helps former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.) and Romney, with some of his support likely going to Representatives Ron Paul (Tex.) and Duncan Hunter (Calif.). Romney garnered Tancredo's endorsement, which has some value, but immigration voters will be most attracted to Thompson. That said, Tancredo's supporters were a small bunch to begin with.
4.

Thompson is counting on a late surge in Iowa. He's shown some superficial signs of success, garnering the backing of Iowa's two grassroots conservative heroes: an endorsement from immigration hawk Rep. Steve King (R) and the support of Tancredo's former Iowa chairman, Bill Salier, who challenged liberal Rep. Greg Ganske (R) in the U.S. Senate primary in 2002. However, it's not yet clear whether Thompson is connecting with Iowa voters on the ground.
5.

The campaign of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is looking imperiled. His New Hampshire poll numbers, like his national poll numbers, have steadily fallen since mid-November. He can't count on a strong showing in Iowa or South Carolina, and so all his hopes will rest on big wins in Florida (January 29) and on February 5 Mega-Tuesday after a month of losses. His best hope is if Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan go four different ways, which is very possible.

6.

If Huckabee does not win Iowa, his run may be over, especially if he has to compete with Thompson in Southern states. Even if Huckabee wins Iowa, his chances at winning the nomination are slim. His coffers are too empty, his conservative credentials too flimsy, and his campaign infrastructure too sparse.
7.

For Ron Paul, a third-place finish in Iowa is not out of the question.

speciallyblend
12-28-2007, 07:45 AM
3rd or better is a WIN WIN FOR RON PAUL:) in IOWA

Vonhayek7
12-28-2007, 07:45 AM
3rd in Iowa, 1st in NH.

fireworks_god
12-28-2007, 08:06 AM
3rd in Iowa, 1st in NH.

2nd in Iowa, 1st in NH, has been my official prediction. :)

I think second in Iowa will be a narrow lead, and I'm pretty sure it'll be Romney he edges out, but it would be insanely gratifying if it would be Huckabee! :eek: :D

Mark
12-28-2007, 10:54 AM
Weather will play a factor. I don't think he factored that in.

jake
12-28-2007, 10:56 AM
3rd, 2nd would be interesting but 3rd, 1st would be astounding.

Ozwest
12-28-2007, 11:01 AM
Watch this video, and believe we can win in New Hampshire. This is the work of some dedicated grassroots patriots. Inspiring!http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=-gCQKLqO_0k

KingTheoden
12-28-2007, 11:05 AM
I'm predicting third in Iowa and a statistical tie for first in New Hampshire. Novak is an establishment type, but is pretty fair in his political analysis. That he is affording us the possibility of securing a third place showing in Iowa tells me that the inside game is fully aware the polls are bogus and that Ron Paul really does have pretty ample support.

EDIT: Tancredo had a pretty hefty following in Iowa and I wager to say that at least half of those supporters are flocking to Ron Paul. The endorsement of Minutemen members far outweigh Tancredo's bizarre endorsement of Romney.

lnieves
12-28-2007, 11:16 AM
Does a third in Iowa give him any delegates? Or is it Iowa a winner-take-all state?

RevolutionSD
12-28-2007, 11:19 AM
Novak is also writing articles now propping up John McCain.
Novak is an establishment tool. Not on our side.

all J's in IL for RP
12-28-2007, 11:28 AM
One line blurb; no analysis; thus a good showing would be easier to dismiss as an "aberration." We're in a race with Thompson for 3rd. Setting the bar higher will only lead to disillusionment.

davidhperry
12-28-2007, 12:04 PM
One line blurb; no analysis; thus a good showing would be easier to dismiss as an "aberration." We're in a race with Thompson for 3rd. Setting the bar higher will only lead to disillusionment.

I agree. Let's work hard and see what happens. Please don't set any expectations that can be thrown back in our faces if they're too high.

slantedview
12-28-2007, 12:30 PM
Weather will play a factor. I don't think he factored that in.

i'm praying for a blizzard or freeze of epic proportions :)

Highstreet
12-28-2007, 12:35 PM
Weather will play a factor. I don't think he factored that in.

I would guess 2nd, with a possible 1st in Iowa because of that and the Primary Math video.

blakjak
12-28-2007, 12:36 PM
Weather will play a factor. I don't think he factored that in.

As of right now, it does not look like weather will play much of a factor.

Weather for Des Moines, Iowa on Jan 3rd:

Mostly Sunny
Hi 34°
Lo 21°

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USIA0231?from=36hr_topnav_undeclared

puppetmaster
12-28-2007, 12:48 PM
on the third....
Cold high 20s
Winds 15 to 20 mph

no storm