IOWA!! Place your bets!

[Perry]

Alright one week until Iowa. Place your predictions.
Please make an attempt at being painstakingly honest.

[McDermit]

methinks third.

[Chester Copperpot]

We're taking FIRST PLACE and thats that.

[NewEnd]

third

[Alex Libman]

Second in Iowa and South Carolina.

First in New Hampshire, Wyoming, and Nevada.

[Joe3113]

First assuming its not rigged. 2nd otherwise

[Castrensis]

I lolled when I saw the title. I love these threads.

Anyway, second. Why, you ask? Its 'cause RP is:

http://www.roflcat.com/images/cats/normal_harddrivekitty_copy.jpg (http://www.roflcat.com)

teh internets ownz0red das election.

[MRoCkEd]

3rd
i have a poll for Iowa and New Hampshire in my signature

[Kilrain]

1st or 3rd. Either he sweeps it or he finishes third behind Huckleberry and Plastic Man. I don't see how he can beat one of them and lose to the other.

[Perry]

I voted second.

[hsmith]

3rd in IA
1st in NH

[shadowhooch]

I've got to vote 1st.

The real "tell" will be the % Ron Paul gets. He's polling in the single digits. If he pulls a significantly higher % of the vote (say close to 20%), then that proves that all of these polls are WAY off and media WILL pay attention more.

However, if Ron Paul finishes the way he is polling.....that's horrible news as that trend could in theory be expected to continue.:(

One of the biggest reasons I run into for people not voting for Ron Paul is that "he doesn't have a chance". This has to be debunked IMMEDIATELY. Early states are critical for Ron Paul to get the "doubters" on board for February 5th. If Ron Paul does well, it will be a snowball effect to victory.

By the way....anyone know what time the results will be announced on Thursday?

[Ozwest]

I'm staying positive, but first or second is a bit of a long-shot. Third place will be a great result.

New Hampshire is another story, and I think we have a real shot at first.

Bring it on!

[LibertiORDeth]

methinks third.

+1

[LibertiORDeth]

I've got to vote 1st.

The real "tell" will be the % Ron Paul gets. He's polling in the single digits. If he pulls a significantly higher % of the vote (say close to 20%), then that proves that all of these polls are WAY off and media WILL pay attention more.

However, if Ron Paul finishes the way he is polling.....that's horrible news as that trend could in theory be expected to continue.:(

One of the biggest reasons I run into for people not voting for Ron Paul is that "he doesn't have a chance". This has to be debunked IMMEDIATELY. Early states are critical for Ron Paul to get the "doubters" on board for February 5th. If Ron Paul does well, it will be a snowball effect to victory.

By the way....anyone know what time the results will be announced on Thursday?
Yep.

[jorlowitz]

There's a not unreasonable consensus that Romney and Huckabee have 1st and 2nd tied up. That leaves Paul fighting it out with 4 other better-known (though flawed) candidates.

Paul - huge grassroots support
Thompson - most 'conservative' of the better known candidates
McCain - surging in New Hampshire and nationally
Guiliani - best name/political recognition of any candidate

For Paul to take 3rd, he has to beat all 3 of these guys. I voted fourth place. I think he'll take 3rd in New Hampshire. I don't think that means the race is in any way over, though, since Thompson (and Hunter) will probably drop out shortly.

[jumpyg1258]

2nd maybe 3rd in Iowa, highly doubt 1st will happen there
1st in New Hampshire without a doubt, if he finishes 2nd or worse there I will be dissapointed

[Ozwest]

Check out this amazing video of the guys on the ground in New Hampshire. A must see!http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=-gCQKLqO_0k

[iloveronpaul]

I say 2nd because you know the powers that be can't let us get 1st. :D

[Original_Intent]

I said third but I think it will be a strong third and he will vastly surpass his polling numbers. My guess in Iowa is 15-20%.

It all depends on the weather though. If it is a nasty day I could see a complete upset.

I am keeping my expectations/hopes low for Iowa, the only thing that would really crush me is if we don't get double digits.

[Galileo Galilei]

I've got to vote 1st.

The real "tell" will be the % Ron Paul gets. He's polling in the single digits. If he pulls a significantly higher % of the vote (say close to 20%), then that proves that all of these polls are WAY off and media WILL pay attention more.

However, if Ron Paul finishes the way he is polling.....that's horrible news as that trend could in theory be expected to continue.:(

One of the biggest reasons I run into for people not voting for Ron Paul is that "he doesn't have a chance". This has to be debunked IMMEDIATELY. Early states are critical for Ron Paul to get the "doubters" on board for February 5th. If Ron Paul does well, it will be a snowball effect to victory.

By the way....anyone know what time the results will be announced on Thursday?

very good analysis, except I think RP will get a strong third, about 20%, and have a chance for 2nd (beating Romney).

This 20% would be huge news as that means RP beat Ghouliani, Fred, and McCain, and more importantly, it will DISCREDIT THE POLLS.

Fred ran out of money and dropped his TV ads in Iowa. Neither McCain or Giuliani are running TV ads in Iowa either. Nor do any of these 3 jokers have an organization or grassroots there. Only Fred is there actully campaigning much.

RP is going to beat these guys. He is running tons of radio, plus TV and infomercials. But the media is not reporting this, RP has no expectation of success.

Third for RP will serve as a springboard to NH and a minimoneybomb.

[thisisgiparti]

Giuliani / McCain won't play in Peoria. McCain might do well in NH, assuming they show up at the polls drunken, but 9udy already packed his bags and left for Florida.

[dircha]

Anything higher than 4th is wishful thinking.

Despite all of our much trumpeted enthusiasm here, we couldn't even beat Tancredo back at Ames.

I don't see any evidence to believe that our popularity has substantially grown. Our poll numbers have not improved significantly since then. We are still in the single digits - low single digits depending on the poll - despite many targeted radio and television ad runs.

We have enough support to overwhelm small straw polls through a small but enthusiastic number of activist supporters, but we couldn't even overwhelm Ames where we got 5th, and we do not have enough support to overwhelm state caucuses and primaries, especially in a caucus state.

The simple fact of the matter seems to be that the message of Constitutional government is not popular among Iowans. I don't know why we would think otherwise. This is the country that - one way or another - put George W Bush into office, twice. That's pretty damning.