Perry
12-27-2007, 09:40 PM
Be patient. You are going to love how this one ends. :)
"Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican." Such was the advice of the Great Communicator to his fellow Republicans. But that was then and this is now.
Faced with a base unwilling to commit to a candidate, the men running for the Republican nomination have tossed Reagan's 11th commandment in order to preserve their own fledgling campaigns.
Stripped of their moral certitude, searching for their confidence, lacking the supplies needed to forge ahead and wandering with a conservative compass, the GOP candidates have stumbled onto their own Sierra Nevada and have begun to devour themselves out of desperation. Reagan has been replaced by Donner.
But before we get to the most recent example of campaign cannibalism, it is pivotal to understand how we got here so we can understand how to escape and, possibly, win in 2008. Put simply, we must learn the post-Bush terrain.
In the early months of January, the GOP nomination appeared to be pretty much a race between John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Mr. McCain was best known as the maverick reformer who bested George W. Bush in New Hampshire during the 2000 primary, thus a natural choice for those seeking an independent strike in the White House. Rudy had 9/11, thus setting the stage for 2008.
There was only one problem: Republicans chose to watch a new show and demanded a refund.
Underestimating the frustration Americans feel toward illegal immigration, Mr. McCain attempted to force an amnesty bill through the Senate granting legal status to the 12 million-plus illegals in the nation. The grassroots revolted, the Senate sought cover and Mr. McCain's bill died, along with his presidential ambitions.
Rudy, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, not wanting to suffer the same fate, changed their immigration tune. With a blink of an eye, the mayor of the largest sanctuary city in the country, the governor who used illegal immigrants to meet his lawn service needs and the other governor who supported of tuition breaks for illegals were now in favor of border security. And, most importantly, they did not hesitate in whacking Mr. McCain with the border billy club.
Then came the Iowa Straw Poll. While Mr. Romney came out on top, which was no surprise considering his hefty financial investment, it was Mr. Huckabee who stole the spotlight. His performance in Iowa knocked Sam Brownback out of the race and planted the seeds for a fall Huckaboom harvest - but more on that later.
While the candidates were still plowing the electoral fields of Iowa, Focus on the Family's James Dobson sounded the Giuliani alarm bells. Concerned that a pro-choice, dress-wearing, blue-state politician would claim the GOP nomination, Mr. Dobson and a few of his friends at the Council for National Policy declared they would bolt if Rudy was the nominee. Rudy hit an ideological iceberg, and his campaign began to sink.
Seeing blood in the water, Rudy's GOP rivals began attacking the 9/11 mayor on his pro-choice credentials and gay pride marches. But with Messrs. McCain, Romney, Rudy and Fred Thompson skipping the American Family Association's Values Voter Debate, it was Mr. Huckabee who won the hearts of Christian conservatives.
Mr. Huckabee had an equally impressive performance at a Family Research Council event, and soon the ordained Baptist minister was subtly tapping into evangelical concerns over Mitt's Mormonism. Iowa followed and we had Huckaboom.
Mr. Romney scurried to put out the Huckabee fires, but it was too late. Mr. Huckabee was the Christian candidate of choice.
The fact that Mr. Huckabee was now seen as an electable candidate, with some polls suggesting he could beat Hillary, meant a Baptist could be the social values candidate and the anti-Clinton remedy. Good-bye, Mitt and Rudy.
As for Fred Thompson, he was not forgotten, though his campaign will be. Fred waited too long, Huck filled the vacuum, and by the time Fred arrived at the dance hall the janitor was already sweeping confetti. Fred was out before he was in, and his rivals on the campaign trail were sure to remind voters of such a fact.
So now comes Mr. Huckabee's turn at the bonfire. Stories concerning his son torturing a dog, his role in the release of a rapist, floating crosses and his willingness to isolate AIDS patients has meant Mr. Huckabee's life is fair game. And political reality sets in.
Mr. Huckabee may have the polls, but he does not have the money. Thus, there is a good chance the Huckaboom will become Huckabust.
So what does that mean? Is it the end of the GOP? Not a chance. It means the latest candidate to join the first tier with his $18 million war chest is about to surge.
Ron Paul is set to explode on the campaign circuit right before the early contests. His fundraising gives him a legitimate claim to the first tier, while his money will permit him to retain it.
Thanks to perfect timing, it appears Mr. Paul may be the last man standing when the snow melts this spring.
Source: The Bulletin (http://www.thebulletin.us/site/news.cfm?newsid=19144824&BRD=2737&PAG=461&dept_id=623508&rfi=6)
"Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican." Such was the advice of the Great Communicator to his fellow Republicans. But that was then and this is now.
Faced with a base unwilling to commit to a candidate, the men running for the Republican nomination have tossed Reagan's 11th commandment in order to preserve their own fledgling campaigns.
Stripped of their moral certitude, searching for their confidence, lacking the supplies needed to forge ahead and wandering with a conservative compass, the GOP candidates have stumbled onto their own Sierra Nevada and have begun to devour themselves out of desperation. Reagan has been replaced by Donner.
But before we get to the most recent example of campaign cannibalism, it is pivotal to understand how we got here so we can understand how to escape and, possibly, win in 2008. Put simply, we must learn the post-Bush terrain.
In the early months of January, the GOP nomination appeared to be pretty much a race between John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Mr. McCain was best known as the maverick reformer who bested George W. Bush in New Hampshire during the 2000 primary, thus a natural choice for those seeking an independent strike in the White House. Rudy had 9/11, thus setting the stage for 2008.
There was only one problem: Republicans chose to watch a new show and demanded a refund.
Underestimating the frustration Americans feel toward illegal immigration, Mr. McCain attempted to force an amnesty bill through the Senate granting legal status to the 12 million-plus illegals in the nation. The grassroots revolted, the Senate sought cover and Mr. McCain's bill died, along with his presidential ambitions.
Rudy, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, not wanting to suffer the same fate, changed their immigration tune. With a blink of an eye, the mayor of the largest sanctuary city in the country, the governor who used illegal immigrants to meet his lawn service needs and the other governor who supported of tuition breaks for illegals were now in favor of border security. And, most importantly, they did not hesitate in whacking Mr. McCain with the border billy club.
Then came the Iowa Straw Poll. While Mr. Romney came out on top, which was no surprise considering his hefty financial investment, it was Mr. Huckabee who stole the spotlight. His performance in Iowa knocked Sam Brownback out of the race and planted the seeds for a fall Huckaboom harvest - but more on that later.
While the candidates were still plowing the electoral fields of Iowa, Focus on the Family's James Dobson sounded the Giuliani alarm bells. Concerned that a pro-choice, dress-wearing, blue-state politician would claim the GOP nomination, Mr. Dobson and a few of his friends at the Council for National Policy declared they would bolt if Rudy was the nominee. Rudy hit an ideological iceberg, and his campaign began to sink.
Seeing blood in the water, Rudy's GOP rivals began attacking the 9/11 mayor on his pro-choice credentials and gay pride marches. But with Messrs. McCain, Romney, Rudy and Fred Thompson skipping the American Family Association's Values Voter Debate, it was Mr. Huckabee who won the hearts of Christian conservatives.
Mr. Huckabee had an equally impressive performance at a Family Research Council event, and soon the ordained Baptist minister was subtly tapping into evangelical concerns over Mitt's Mormonism. Iowa followed and we had Huckaboom.
Mr. Romney scurried to put out the Huckabee fires, but it was too late. Mr. Huckabee was the Christian candidate of choice.
The fact that Mr. Huckabee was now seen as an electable candidate, with some polls suggesting he could beat Hillary, meant a Baptist could be the social values candidate and the anti-Clinton remedy. Good-bye, Mitt and Rudy.
As for Fred Thompson, he was not forgotten, though his campaign will be. Fred waited too long, Huck filled the vacuum, and by the time Fred arrived at the dance hall the janitor was already sweeping confetti. Fred was out before he was in, and his rivals on the campaign trail were sure to remind voters of such a fact.
So now comes Mr. Huckabee's turn at the bonfire. Stories concerning his son torturing a dog, his role in the release of a rapist, floating crosses and his willingness to isolate AIDS patients has meant Mr. Huckabee's life is fair game. And political reality sets in.
Mr. Huckabee may have the polls, but he does not have the money. Thus, there is a good chance the Huckaboom will become Huckabust.
So what does that mean? Is it the end of the GOP? Not a chance. It means the latest candidate to join the first tier with his $18 million war chest is about to surge.
Ron Paul is set to explode on the campaign circuit right before the early contests. His fundraising gives him a legitimate claim to the first tier, while his money will permit him to retain it.
Thanks to perfect timing, it appears Mr. Paul may be the last man standing when the snow melts this spring.
Source: The Bulletin (http://www.thebulletin.us/site/news.cfm?newsid=19144824&BRD=2737&PAG=461&dept_id=623508&rfi=6)