Ron Paul wins in Iowa

[Spideynw]

I am just going to say it now. Ron Paul is going to win Iowa.

Why you ask? Well, because more Ron Paul supporters will show up then for any other candidate. Not only that, but the votes will be split too much between the rest of the candidates.

[itsnobody]

Yeah, I already bet $100 on it....

He'll get 1st for sure

In NH I don't know 1st or 2nd

Then the media can't ignore us anymore....

[ClayTrainor]

Yeah, I already bet $100 on it....

He'll get 1st for sure

In NH I don't know 1st or 2nd

Then the media can't ignore us anymore....

I think he has a good chance at #1 in both states, but personally i think he has a better chance in NH due to the whole idea of "live free or die"

[itsnobody]

I think he has a good chance at #1 in both states, but personally i think he has a better chance in NH due to the whole idea of "live free or die"

But Iowa has a much lower voter turn-out, he only needs 35,000 votes to win in Iowa

I'm sure all the Democrat, Republican, independant, and unregistered Ron Paul supporters who will vote is higher than 35,000

Plus the voter registration deadline and deadline to switch parties is January 3rd in Iowa, the same as the caucus day, so all the Iowans need to is get as many people as they can to come out and vote that day

[rational thinker]

I actually thought that having more candidates dropping will help Ron as it would force the media to give each candidate more attention since the attention is split with less people. I'm thinking that Duncan Hunter will drop after New Hampshire and Iowa, Fred Thompson will drop after South Carolina, and John McCain will drop after Super Duper Tuesday due to all not going well for any of these three candidates. I honestly still don't know why Hunter is still in it. But nonetheless, the only candidates that will probably be remaining will be Rudy Guiliani, Mitt Romney, Tax Hike Mike, and the very Ron Paul. It's sorta like college basketball with the Final Four and whatnot. :)

[Vendico]

Ven was here

[ClayTrainor]

But Iowa has a much lower voter turn-out, he only needs 35,000 votes to win in Iowa

I'm sure all the Democrat, Republican, independant, and unregistered Ron Paul supporters who will vote is higher than 35,000

Plus you the voter registration deadline and deadline to switch parties is January 3rd in Iowa, the same as the caucus day, so all the Iowans need to is get as many people as they can to come out and vote that day

that's some pretty good reasoning there man.

It's pretty clear that he's going to do pretty well in both states! This should give the revolution a massive bump.

[Oliver]

I am just going to say it now. Ron Paul is going to win Iowa.

Why you ask? Well, because more Ron Paul supporters will show up then for any other candidate. Not only that, but the votes will be split too much between the rest of the candidates.

I don't trust the US-election system for one second,
but I will keep my fingers crossed, that's for sure.

[dircha]

Amazing, amazing...

[itsnobody]

that's some pretty good reasoning there man.

It's pretty clear that he's going to do pretty well in both states! This should give the revolution a massive bump.

Yeah if we got each Iowan RP supporter to get their whole family and everyone they know to vote for RP we have Iowa in the bag

The voter regstration deadline was changed to be the same as caucus day so it should work

[rational thinker]

What are you guys talking about??? Frank Luntz already told us that the Ron will only do slightly better than what the polls are telling us!

[Suzu]

Yeah, I already bet $100 on it....

He'll get 1st for sure

In NH I don't know 1st or 2nd


I've got a really sweet bet going on the primaries. My neo-con buddy in Florida is so confident that RP will not even come in 4th in ANY state, that if he does, he will pay me $1k for each first place win; $750 for each 2nd place; $500 for each 3rd; and $250 for each 4th - and *I* don't have to pay him anything if RP fails to make at least 4th in a state.

:D

[itsnobody]

What are you guys talking about??? Frank Luntz already told us that the Ron will only do slightly better than what the polls are telling us!
Frank Luntz is an idiot...Ron Paul attracts a large number of independents, unregistered, and even Democrats who aren't being polled

So the margin of error is now +30%


I've got a really sweet bet going on the primaries. My neo-con buddy in Florida is so confident that RP will not even come in 4th in ANY state, that if he does, he will pay me $1k for each first place win; $750 for each 2nd place; $500 for each 3rd; and $250 for each 4th - and *I* don't have to pay him anything if RP fails to make at least 4th in a state.

:D
I would say you already made $1k :D

[Suzu]

Hunter will drop after New Hampshire and Iowa, Thompson will drop after South Carolina, and McCain will drop after Super Duper Tuesday.... the only candidates that will probably be remaining will be Rudy Guiliani, Mitt Romney, Tax Hike Mike, and the very Ron Paul.

I agree with most of this, however I think Huckabee is going to drop out before 2/05/07.

[itsnobody]

I agree with most of this, however I think Huckabee is going to drop out before 2/05/07.

Huckabee has no money, which means even with all this MSM support and the Chuck Norris endorsement, people aren't still confident enough to give him money

[Carole]

I am not too excited about Iowa. I decided to look up the number of donors for last quarter.

Here are 3rd Qtr numbers I just checked for Dr. Paul

Western Iowa $6100
Central Iowa $9783
Eastern Iowa $16451
3rd Quarter donations
52000-52999 zip code

79 Donors

Can anyone get these figures for 4th Quarter up to this point?

[smartguy911]

I actually thought that having more candidates dropping will help Ron as it would force the media to give each candidate more attention since the attention is split with less people. I'm thinking that Duncan Hunter will drop after New Hampshire and Iowa, Fred Thompson will drop after South Carolina, and John McCain will drop after Super Duper Tuesday due to all not going well for any of these three candidates. I honestly still don't know why Hunter is still in it. But nonetheless, the only candidates that will probably be remaining will be Rudy Guiliani, Mitt Romney, Tax Hike Mike, and the very Ron Paul. It's sorta like college basketball with the Final Four and whatnot. :)

You need to be careful about John McCain because I have a feeling it's going to be John McCain vs. Ron Paul.

[Suzu]

I am not too excited about Iowa. I decided to look up the number of donors for last quarter.

Here are 3rd Qtr numbers I just checked for Dr. Paul

Western Iowa $6100
Central Iowa $9783
Eastern Iowa $16451
3rd Quarter donations
52000-52999 zip code

79 Donors

Can anyone get these figures for 4th Quarter up to this point?

RonPaulGraphs.com captured 67196 for Q4, of which 656 were from Iowa.

RonPaulGraphs.com has only managed to catch about half of the actual donors.

Iowa's average number of donors per million of population so far 4th quarter is 220, according to RonPaulGraphs.com. So the true figure might be around 400/1m.

[itsnobody]

I am not too excited about Iowa. I decided to look up the number of donors for last quarter.

Here are 3rd Qtr numbers I just checked for Dr. Paul

Western Iowa $6100
Central Iowa $9783
Eastern Iowa $16451
3rd Quarter donations
52000-52999 zip code

79 Donors

Can anyone get these figures for 4th Quarter up to this point?

The 3rd quarter is completely different, in the 3rd quarter Ron Paul was still "not polling"

Right now he's polling at 10% in Iowa ( http://americanresearchgroup.com )

I'm confident that there's at least 35,000 RP supporters in Iowa who will vote

[Carole]

Thanks Suzu,

Which graph was it? I could not find one for Iowa. Only found the map and below map 220 donors for Iowa.

[Suzu]

On the Donor Maps page, click Donors by State.

[rational thinker]

You need to be careful about John McCain because I have a feeling it's going to be John McCain vs. Ron Paul.

You really think so? Isn't John McCain really riding on doing well in Iowa and New Hampshire and seeing that he probably will get 4th (which is not good) in both, he'll be really slumping. And besides, he doesn't have much money. Don't you remember? If Ron raised more money in the 3rd quarter than he did and he probably made even less this quarter. As for Mike, the reason I stated that he might still be in it for the long haul is because I think he may actually manage to win a couple of primaries and the media will blow it out of proportion in our faces. It would be like the coverage for every Mike Huckabee win= 5 Ron Paul primary wins.

[rational thinker]

The 3rd quarter is completely different, in the 3rd quarter Ron Paul was still "not polling"

Right now he's polling at 10% in Iowa ( http://americanresearchgroup.com )

I'm confident that there's at least 35,000 RP supporters in Iowa who will vote


What's the average voter turnout period for Iowa?

[european]

I've got a really sweet bet going on the primaries. My neo-con buddy in Florida is so confident that RP will not even come in 4th in ANY state, that if he does, he will pay me $1k for each first place win; $750 for each 2nd place; $500 for each 3rd; and $250 for each 4th - and *I* don't have to pay him anything if RP fails to make at least 4th in a state.

:D

uhm.... let him write that on paper :p this is gonna cost him a lot of money! probably something around €40,000.- :eek:

[itsnobody]

What's the average voter turnout period for Iowa?

http://elections.gmu.edu/Voter_Turnout_2004_Primaries.htm

A high estimate would be around 100,000 for Republicans

With so many Republicans being undecided and the day being changed, I doubt it'll be as high as 100,000

[Carole]

Okay, I saw that 220 and I thought it meant total donors was 220 rather than 220 per million.

That does sound better.

Yes, I know qtr 3 was quite different, but I could not find q4 up to this point. Got it now.

Thanks

[Magsec]

Fingers crossed for lousy weather, cuz RP supporters will brave ice and snow to vote for the man. Let's fight the good fight, idealogically as well as physically ;)

[Suzu]

uhm.... let him write that on paper :p this is gonna cost him a lot of money! probably something around €40,000.- :eek:

You're right, I think... and when I typed the other post, I forgot to include the recent update to the bet, which we originally made about three weeks ago. Last week he agreed to double the stakes on 22 states of my choosing.... If RP does well, I could end up paying off my house and buying a car from the winnings!

[Carole]

Thanks, I got it.

Just saw on Hardball, poll Real Clear Politics. Paul not mentioned and Thompson was No. 5 at about 8.?? percent

Any thoughts anyone?

[Carole]

:D

[itsnobody]

Thanks, I got it.

Just saw on Hardball, poll Real Clear Politics. Paul not mentioned and Thompson was No. 5 at about 8.?? percent

Any thoughts anyone?

Thompson is at 3% in Iowa and Ron Paul is at 10% in Iowa according to the latest poll

[Lord Xar]

I am very confused at how ANY of you would think he could get 1st in Iowa.. this was the same type of talk with the Ames Straw Poll, and he got 5th. Remember, most people still don't even know who he is.

Lets keep level heads and hope for the best.. but 3rd is at least what we are hoping.

[Carole]

Does anyone know how many Electoral votes are comprised in the states, Mostly western plus Virginia in East and New Hampshire?

[itsnobody]

I am very confused at how ANY of you would think he could get 1st in Iowa.. this was the same type of talk with the Ames Straw Poll, and he got 5th. Remember, most people still don't even know who he is.

Lets keep level heads and hope for the best.. but 3rd is at least what we are hoping.

Yeah he got 5th when no one knew who he was amd when he wasn't polling, if we had the same Ames Straw poll now he would get 1st, a lot has changed, remember 5,000 people showed in Philly, 2,000 would've won him the Ames Straw poll

How can you say someone polling at 10% in Iowa no one knows? Everyone I know knows who he is now, thanks to us

But just wait for the caucus, it's next thursday

[Suzu]

Does anyone know how many Electoral votes are comprised in the states, Mostly western plus Virginia in East and New Hampshire?

http://www.fec.gov/pages/elecvote.htm

[Carole]

Exactly, I tend to agree with you.

I get the feeling all those Iowans are enjoying all the attention and money in their economy these past few weeks, but are not maybe that serious about this campaign.

Do they just want to meet celebrities or what? Still so many undecided and one of the other threads, a canvasser was down over how few knew of Dr. Paul.

So my expectations are not very high here. :(

[Carole]

Thanks Suzu. I'wll check it out.

[OReich]

But Iowa has a much lower voter turn-out, he only needs 35,000 votes to win in Iowa

I'm sure all the Democrat, Republican, independant, and unregistered Ron Paul supporters who will vote is higher than 35,000

Plus the voter registration deadline and deadline to switch parties is January 3rd in Iowa, the same as the caucus day, so all the Iowans need to is get as many people as they can to come out and vote that day

Just curious (and if not, it doesn't contradict what you're saying): are you basing this on the assumption I sometimes hear that 100,000 people are gonna vote in the Iowa Caucuses?

[itsnobody]

Just curious (and if not, it doesn't contradict what you're saying): are you basing this on the assumption I sometimes hear that 100,000 people are gonna vote in the Iowa Caucuses?

No it's not based on what anyone "hears" it's based on the actual numbers, in 2000 for instance there were 86,000 total votes for Republicans in the Iowa caucus

Go look up the numbers and see for yourself

[LibertyEagle]

I am very confused at how ANY of you would think he could get 1st in Iowa.. this was the same type of talk with the Ames Straw Poll, and he got 5th. Remember, most people still don't even know who he is.

Lets keep level heads and hope for the best.. but 3rd is at least what we are hoping.

+1

[OReich]

My family has been so condescending to me for the past few days, ever since I said we're definitely winning Iowa, so we better pull this out. Oh yeah, and cuz of liberty and freedom and all that.

[LibertyEagle]

Yeah he got 5th when no one knew who he was amd when he wasn't polling, if we had the same Ames Straw poll now he would get 1st, a lot has changed, remember 5,000 people showed in Philly, 2,000 would've won him the Ames Straw poll

How can you say someone polling at 10% in Iowa no one knows? Everyone I know knows who he is now, thanks to us

But just wait for the caucus, it's next thursday

You don't live in Iowa though and someone who does started a thread here early today, and said that he had called a bunch of people in Iowa and found that only a very few even knew who he was.

[OReich]

No it's not based on what anyone "hears" it's based on the actual numbers, in 2000 for instance there were 86,000 total votes for Republicans in the Iowa caucus

Go look up the numbers and see for yourself

:) Awesome, thank you. 35,000 and we're cleaning house.

[itsnobody]

You don't live in Iowa though and someone who does started a thread here early today, and said that he had called a bunch of people in Iowa and found that only a very few even knew who he was.

Yeah that's why Iowa has such a low voter turn out (5-10%), most people don't vote and don't care to vote. I'm sure a lot of people don't know who Huckabee is either, in fact most people probably don't even know who their own state governor is

The people who will vote know who he is

Why is he polling at 10% in the latest Iowa poll? ( http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/republican_primaries.html ) if nobody knows who Ron Paul is?

[acroso]

If Paul wins Iowa it will be a BLOODY day for Bush and the neocons. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXnO_FxmHes)

[Joe3113]

You need to be careful about John McCain because I have a feeling it's going to be John McCain vs. Ron Paul.

I disagree. The establishment is pushing Romney now. He will stay in. Establishment is not interested in McCain but he has the support of the 80+ years old crowd.

Drop outs will be in the following order:

Hunter
Thompson
Huckabee
Giuliani

The it will be: Paul V Romney V McCain (Unless McCain decides to go independent earlier)

[itsnobody]

If Paul wins Iowa it will be a BLOODY day for Bush and the neocons. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXnO_FxmHes)

If Ron Paul wins there will be a huge fight Neo-Cons vs. Cons in the Republican party

[Tom29]

Iowa voters supported Bill Clinton in 1992 and in 1996. Al Gore won the state in 2000, but George W. Bush won the state in 2004.

I think Ron Paul has a bigger change of winning this state than Mike Huckabee.

[wildflower]

I've got a really sweet bet going on the primaries. My neo-con buddy in Florida is so confident that RP will not even come in 4th in ANY state, that if he does, he will pay me $1k for each first place win; $750 for each 2nd place; $500 for each 3rd; and $250 for each 4th - and *I* don't have to pay him anything if RP fails to make at least 4th in a state.

:D


Oh man, you're lucky! I would love to be in a bet like that. :D

[Oliver]

By the way - when will the results be published?

[user]

I think Ron Paul has a bigger change of winning this state than Mike Huckabee.
This is the GOP caucus.

[Spideynw]

You don't live in Iowa though and someone who does started a thread here early today, and said that he had called a bunch of people in Iowa and found that only a very few even knew who he was.

It does not matter, because only a few are going to go to the caucuses to vote anyways.

[goldstandard]

You need to be careful about John McCain because I have a feeling it's going to be John McCain vs. Ron Paul.

http://img.youtube.com/i/7LwuZicutuLD2bjoJtBe-g/1.jpg

[katao]

For those counting on high turnout in Iowa to propel Dr. Paul to 1st, don't underestimate Romney's huge, 10 million dollar organization in Iowa (backed by Mormon voters that are already highly organized and will respond to the call from the pulpit to "do their civic duty"). And don't underestimate the organizational power of the evangelicals for Huckabee getting out the vote.

A strong 3rd place vote in Iowa will be a MAJOR victory and will shock the country, propelling Dr. Paul in NH, NV, and the other early states.

[Dorfsmith]

For those counting on high turnout in Iowa to propel Dr. Paul to 1st, don't underestimate Romney's huge, 10 million dollar organization in Iowa (backed by Mormon voters that are already highly organized and will respond to the call from the pulpit to "do their civic duty"). And don't underestimate the organizational power of the evangelicals for Huckabee getting out the vote.

A strong 3rd place vote in Iowa will be a MAJOR victory and will shock the country, propelling Dr. Paul in NH, NV, and the other early states.

Exactly.

[wgadget]

Is Romney paying people to go to the caucuses?

[Greg in VA]

I think when one contrast the stories from the politico

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin

Fred off the air in Iowa, for now

When I got a generic fundraising e-mail "from" Fred Thompson campaign manager Bill Lacy last night offering "a quick update" on the effort to get "on the air statewide in Iowa," I didn't take it literally.

I should have.

Fred has gone dark in Iowa.

With not enough cash to buy ads, he's doing all the free media he can on his bus tour. But it's a remarkable indicator of just how topsy-turvy the GOP race has been that the man once viewed as the party's savior cannot even afford to buy TV time in the final days before Iowa.

If Team Thompson does get enough in the kitty, it has the below spot in the can.

Rudy dark in Boston

A week after cutting back his TV purchase on Boston stations, Rudy has gone off the air in the pricey market that serves most of southern New Hampshire.

The buy information was provided by a Democrat who tracks the purchases, and a Giuliani aide confirmed the move. In pulling back from New Hampshire, Rudy has begun purchasing ads in Florida markets, including Tampa and Orlando, where the ads don't come cheap.

Even beyond Boston, Rudy's television footprint is considerably smaller than it has been in the Granite State.

He has less than $100,000 in TV time reserved for the period between Dec. 25 and Dec. 31. By comparison, the self-funding Romney has about $700,000 on the air in New Hampshire and McCain has around $565,000 there this week.


McCain/Rudy apparently won't air ads in Iowa


With McCain going up on the air in South Carolina and Rudy in Florida, it's obvious that neither intends to buy a single Iowa TV ad before the caucuses next week.

A check of buys in the Hawkeye State confirms that neither has put down any cash there.

Staying off the air will help with expectation-setting, particularly in McCain's case. If the Arizonan can use his national mo to sneak past Fred (also dark now on the Iowa airwaves) into third, he'd have a ready-made talking point ("Without even airing one commercial ... ")

The two GOP candidates have kept a cadre of staffers in the state to slug it out — earning combat pay in the process — but they've basically ceded the take-Mitt-down-a-peg duties to Huckabee.

This fact — underscored by their prolonged absence — has not been lost on Republicans in the state.

Yes, McCain is back in the state now and Rudy will dip back in before Jan. 3.

But such tokenism surely won't be enough to please a very entitled group of GOP activists. If either candidate gets the nomination, they'll have some fence-mending to do to fire up much-needed foot soldiers in a swing state.

Now in contrast we have
from the Washington Post

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/channel-08/

New Ads From Paul and Clinton in NH, IA
Ron Paul's out with a new TV ad, ''Defender of Freedom," pitching his conservative record in his long-shot bid for the Republican presidential nomination.

The ad starts with an image of young Paul posing during his flight surgeon days in the Air Force. Patriotic music booms, a flag waves and viewers get a quick snapshot of Paul at different points in his career -- and then a quick message about his congressional record.

Stressing his pro-life platform, the announcer says, "Paul delivered over 4,000 babies," making him a "defender of life." And his position against taxes: "Paul never voted to raise taxes, never voted for an unbalanced budget." And finally his position on gun control: Paul "never voted to restrict gun rights."

Paul's campaign chairman Kent Snyer says the ad "is about bringing Dr. Paul's message of freedom, peace and prosperity to potential voters."


I think it is time we not have some of the negativity as shown in some of the threads, it is pretty amazing when you contrast how the annoitted of Rudy, McCain, and Thompson all going dark due to the inability to fund air time. So who's fringe now?