PDA

View Full Version : ARG is assuming only 12% of Independents in the Republican caucus will vote




curtisag
12-26-2007, 06:18 PM
That's a nice assumption, because Paul is 2nd place among Independents with 26%. And the Republicans being polled are all ex-Bush fanatics.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iarep8-715.html

ronpaulyourmom
12-26-2007, 06:22 PM
You don't know that they're 'assuming' this, more likely is that when they make calls, of the people who say they intend to vote in the primary, 12% are independents. It would make sense that most independents are non-partisan general election voters who don't care about the Caucus.

literatim
12-26-2007, 06:24 PM
You don't know that they're 'assuming' this, more likely is that when they make calls, of the people who say they intend to vote in the primary, 12% are independents. It would make sense that most independents are non-partisan general election voters who don't care about the Caucus.

It is assumed because they don't call people who didn't vote in 2004 primaries.

hocaltar
12-26-2007, 06:26 PM
It is assumed because they don't call people who didn't vote in 2004 primaries.

I know this belief that only people who voted in the 2004 primary are being polled, but does anyone know this for sure? My dad get polled all the time and he has never been to a primary.

curtisag
12-26-2007, 06:26 PM
In many states there are more Independents than Republicans registered. I think it's highly unlikely that ONLY 12% will vote in the caucus. Independents want a choice of who the next President will be too you know, especially this year.

ronpaulyourmom
12-26-2007, 06:28 PM
I know this belief that only people who voted in the 2004 primary are being polled, but does anyone know this for sure? My dad get polled all the time and he has never been to a primary.

Its false. Only one or two polling operations go by this standard, most polls that show any sort of support levels for Paul are ones that simply call "registered voters" that includes general election voters.

jgmaynard
12-26-2007, 10:22 PM
If they are only including a 12% turnout for Inds in NH, that is the sweetest thing I have heard. That number is incredibly small for this state. Ind's make up 44% of NH voters and turn out in huge numbers for the primaries. If they are actually using that model, we're going to have another Carter/Reagan/Dukakis/Clinton/Keough moment here. :D

JM