My sobering analysis on iowa, from Cedar Rapids

[PledgeForPaul]

I'm not trying to be a downer - but I don't think a 2nd or 1st place finish in Iowa is realistic. I think anyone who has done hundreds of Iowa phone calls or gone door to door in Iowa will agree with this.

Of people I have called in Cedar Rapids, at least 75% know nothing of Ron Paul beyond name recognition (but do have impressions of other candidates). Of the 25% that have some impression his views (true or false impressions), very few are planning to caucus for him (but I'm working on that!).

The raw stat from my precinct is, I have talked to about 350 people on the phone (from a phone list of just under 1,000 that I have dialed) and have had a total of 3 (T-H-R-E-E) people say they will vote or will probably vote for Ron Paul. The only way my precinct will get 10 votes for him is if these phone conversations have made a difference on people who already had another candidate in mind. I think this is possible, but talking to other precinct captains I know very few will make it through their lists either (and some have not even started).

I think there are 5 ways RP could finish 3rd or above in Iowa:
1. The anecdotal readings I have gotten have been wrong (possible).
2. Cedar Rapids is significantly lagging other cities in the state (very possible).
3. There are above 5,000 Iowa caucus goers who are not in the phone book and only have a cell phone (not likely based on iowa meetup group size, iowans on ronpaulforms.com, etc).
4. The other precinct captains are working harder then I am (possible).
5. The Project: Iowa door to door campaign + letter writing campaign are going to really translate into an additional 5,000+ votes (possible).

With the race as wide as it is, I bet 3rd place will take only need 10,000 total votes.

[bbachtung]

The vast majority of people in Iowa will not show up to either party's caucuses, and my guess is that you would find similar numbers when calling about any other candidate.

[literatim]

Only 6.6% of registered Republicans voted in the last primary.

[walt]

thank you for your efforts.

what is the campaign doing in the rest of the state.

[FreedomLover]

I'm not trying to be a downer - but I don't think a 2nd or 1st place finish in Iowa is realistic. I think anyone who has done hundreds of Iowa phone calls or gone door to door in Iowa will agree with this.

Of people I have called in Cedar Rapids, at least 75% know nothing of Ron Paul beyond name recognition (but do have impressions of other candidates). Of the 25% that have some impression his views (true or false impressions), very few are planning to caucus for him (but I'm working on that!).

The raw stat from my precinct is, I have talked to about 350 people on the phone (from a phone list of just under 1,000 that I have dialed) and have had a total of 3 (T-H-R-E-E) people say they will vote or will probably vote for Ron Paul. The only way my precinct will get 10 votes for him is if these phone conversations have made a difference on people who already had another candidate in mind. I think this is possible, but talking to other precinct captains I know very few will make it through their lists either (and some have not even started).

I think there are 5 ways RP could finish 3rd or above in Iowa:
1. The anecdotal readings I have gotten have been wrong (possible).
2. Cedar Rapids is significantly lagging other cities in the state (very possible).
3. There are above 5,000 Iowa caucus goers who are not in the phone book and only have a cell phone (not likely based on iowa meetup group size, iowans on ronpaulforms.com, etc).
4. The other precinct captains are working harder then I am (possible).
5. The Project: Iowa door to door campaign + letter writing campaign are going to really translate into an additional 5,000+ votes (possible).

With the race as wide as it is, I bet 3rd place will take only need 10,000 total votes.

I never though RP could get 1st or 2nd, but third is definitely within our grasp.

In the straw poll, Rp came in 5th, but it was Brownback and tancredo who finished ahead of him (besides mitt and hucklebee), and they are both out now.

But I'm sorry to hear that cedar rapids hasn't met the Doc yet.

[jenninlouisiana]

Keep your chin up... maybe you are making a difference and just can't tell yet.

[hueylong]

3rd in IA is just fine.

Huey

[yongrel]

Only 6.6% of registered Republicans voted in the last primary.

Ding ding!

[Alabama Supporter]

Keep up the fight. The apathy among the GOP is palpable here, and it sounds like from reports in the media Iowan's aren't exactly pleased with their choices.

[DanConway]

I just sent out my fifty letters to your precinct today -- I hope they help.

[PledgeForPaul]

I just sent out my fifty letters to your precinct today -- I hope they help.

Thank you!!!

[FreedomLover]

Only 6.6% of registered Republicans voted in the last primary.

2000 or 2004?

[runningdiz]

Keep up your work. I think its hard for anyone to judge the support including yourself. I am sure what your saying is true but the thing is most of those people you called are not going to show up anyway. Only a small percentage of those registered to vote will even bother to show up.

[Ron2Win]

Only 6.6% of registered Republicans voted in the last primary.
That was because Bush ran unopposed.

[noztnac]

I'm not trying to be a downer - but I don't think a 2nd or 1st place finish in Iowa is realistic. I think anyone who has done hundreds of Iowa phone calls or gone door to door in Iowa will agree with this.

Of people I have called in Cedar Rapids, at least 75% know nothing of Ron Paul beyond name recognition (but do have impressions of other candidates). Of the 25% that have some impression his views (true or false impressions), very few are planning to caucus for him (but I'm working on that!).

The raw stat from my precinct is, I have talked to about 350 people on the phone (from a phone list of just under 1,000 that I have dialed) and have had a total of 3 (T-H-R-E-E) people say they will vote or will probably vote for Ron Paul. The only way my precinct will get 10 votes for him is if these phone conversations have made a difference on people who already had another candidate in mind. I think this is possible, but talking to other precinct captains I know very few will make it through their lists either (and some have not even started).

I think there are 5 ways RP could finish 3rd or above in Iowa:
1. The anecdotal readings I have gotten have been wrong (possible).
2. Cedar Rapids is significantly lagging other cities in the state (very possible).
3. There are above 5,000 Iowa caucus goers who are not in the phone book and only have a cell phone (not likely based on iowa meetup group size, iowans on ronpaulforms.com, etc).
4. The other precinct captains are working harder then I am (possible).
5. The Project: Iowa door to door campaign + letter writing campaign are going to really translate into an additional 5,000+ votes (possible).

With the race as wide as it is, I bet 3rd place will take only need 10,000 total votes.

In the time you wrote this post I'm sure you could have done something else to make progress towards changing that situation. Pessimism has a tendency to spread. People will read your post and get discouraged. This is not what any of us want. Remember optimism is also contagious. Keep working. You are not alone. Do not get discouraged! We are going to shock the world.

[yongrel]

2000 or 2004?

http://paul4prez.blogspot.com/2007/07/ron-paul-and-primary-turnout.html

State -- Primary Turnout (2000)
Iowa -- 7%
Nevada -- 23%
New Hampshire -- 44%
Florida -- 25%
South Carolina -- 20%


voter turnout is not what I would call high.

[Mastiff]

I have a list of 500 people to call in Cedar Rapids. I don't have the stomach for it. My wife said she'd help call but now she's waffling. I sent an E-mail to the state HQ asking if some of the volunteers could help me out, but I haven't heard back.

The good news is that I have 7 people already in my precinct, so we're not totally stuck.

I'm considering a robo-call since I can call everyone in my precinct for about $50, but I'm not quite sure what it would say aside from "press 1 if you are a Paul supporter". This would let me ferret out any other supporters.

[jenkoolkat]

I am walking door to door in Nevada and its hard, I think harder for me to call. The pros here say dont call,go door to door because people lie on the phone and in person they may like the fact that you even bothered to give them info on Ron Paul. No other candidate here is doing this.

Dont give up. If you dont want to talk, at least leave slim jims or other stuff on peoples doors. I hope every bit I do counts. Id rather suck up this hard work now and be thankfull when he wins than think that I didnt do enough.

So keep up the good work!! We can all do this!

PS - most people are nice at the doors even if they dont support RP so its not that bad

[mahopaul]

Assuming your call list is just registered republicans:

6% (assumed turnout for caucus) of 350 called = 21
3 out of 21 = 14%
14% = 3rd place

This doesn't include unregistered voters and independents.

[transistor]

i came to this conclusion after talking politics with my relatives over christmas... it's so sad, not one even knew who he was

but at least they all said there's no way they could vote for rudy or huckabee

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

moving the caucus up to Jan 8th didn't help with the college-age vote

[Yom]

Sad to hear...

[garrettwombat]

your not taking in to consideration that most people today only use cell phones... keep that chin up!

[ronpaulitician]

If Paul comes in fifth in Iowa, it will be deemed a failure.
If Paul comes in fourth, it will be deemed neither a success nor a failure.
If Paul comes in third, it will be deemed a success.
If Paul comes in second, it will be deemed an amazing success.
If Paul comes in first, martial law will be declared.

I'll be very, very happy with third place, but wouldn't be surprised if Paul comes in fourth.

[Alabama Supporter]

Mastiff, I guess we will meet in the FEMA camp if RP doesnt win. j/k.

[webber53]

Keep your chin up... maybe you are making a difference and just can't tell yet.

+1

[hawks4ronpaul]

I'm not trying to be a downer - but I don't think a 2nd or 1st place finish in Iowa is realistic. I think anyone who has done hundreds of Iowa phone calls or gone door to door in Iowa will agree with this.

Of people I have called in Cedar Rapids, at least 75% know nothing of Ron Paul beyond name recognition (but do have impressions of other candidates). Of the 25% that have some impression his views (true or false impressions), very few are planning to caucus for him (but I'm working on that!).

The raw stat from my precinct is, I have talked to about 350 people on the phone (from a phone list of just under 1,000 that I have dialed) and have had a total of 3 (T-H-R-E-E) people say they will vote or will probably vote for Ron Paul. The only way my precinct will get 10 votes for him is if these phone conversations have made a difference on people who already had another candidate in mind. I think this is possible, but talking to other precinct captains I know very few will make it through their lists either (and some have not even started).

I think there are 5 ways RP could finish 3rd or above in Iowa:
1. The anecdotal readings I have gotten have been wrong (possible).
2. Cedar Rapids is significantly lagging other cities in the state (very possible).
3. There are above 5,000 Iowa caucus goers who are not in the phone book and only have a cell phone (not likely based on iowa meetup group size, iowans on ronpaulforms.com, etc).
4. The other precinct captains are working harder then I am (possible).
5. The Project: Iowa door to door campaign + letter writing campaign are going to really translate into an additional 5,000+ votes (possible).

With the race as wide as it is, I bet 3rd place will take only need 10,000 total votes.

If 10% of the 350 vote, then Paul has 3 of 35 or 9%.

Is it possible to send brochures/DVDs or email articles/videos to the undecideds?


http://hawks4ronpaul.blogspot.com/

[adpierce]

Truth is elections here in Iowa often aren't won by how people vote in the bigger cities like CR or Des Moines. It's won by the people who live in smaller towns and cities throughout Iowa. People in the big cities have a horrible voter turnout. Per-capita people in rural areas are diehard voters. Don't get too discouraged either. People in Iowa this election are disenfranchised with the Republican party. We're going to see a wholesale slashing of the republican base here. Even diehard republicans may not show up to caucus because they might realize the chances of their candidate against the dems is pretty low. I think we could still surprise some folks here. Keep up the hard work and I will too.

[davidt!]

Thank you guys for your hard work in Iowa. Don't give up. A third place finish would be huge!

[michaelwise]

I think we should emphasize that Ron Paul is an OB/GYN doctor who has made more than 4000 deliveries in his carrier, and is a 10 term Republican congressman. I was talking to my sister in-law yesterday, who is a nurse, and just found out that he is an OB/GYN doctor. This a major reason why she is going to vote for him. People still have respect for doctors.

[dante]

I have a list of 500 people to call in Cedar Rapids. I don't have the stomach for it. My wife said she'd help call but now she's waffling. I sent an E-mail to the state HQ asking if some of the volunteers could help me out, but I haven't heard back.

The good news is that I have 7 people already in my precinct, so we're not totally stuck.

I'm considering a robo-call since I can call everyone in my precinct for about $50, but I'm not quite sure what it would say aside from "press 1 if you are a Paul supporter". This would let me ferret out any other supporters.

Please... just get through the first one and its all downhill from there... i used to be the same way... this has to be done... it is these efforts that will guarantee us a good finish in the caucuses

[Adamsa]

Only 6.6% of registered Republicans voted in the last primary.

The 2000 one? Because thats the one that will be more reliable, not 2004.

[tsetsefly]

The 2000 one? Because thats the one that will be more reliable, not 2004.

yest its 2000...

Iowa is stuck in the middle of nowhere america and at this point its quite pathetic that they dont know who Paul is, seriously they are suppose to vote in a few all they need to do is look up on the internet to see who the candidates are...

I knew name recognition would be our downfall in Iowa those hicks are to dumb to look for information on their own and most probably are still on dial up...

I really think if we dont get top 3 in Iowa we might as well give up because the myth that he cant get elected will become reality when people see those results and people will not vote for him...

having said that , FUCK IOWA!

and wtf is the campaign doing in IOWA, I swear our biggest obstacle is an inept campaign not any opponent....

[jeremycobert]

i would be happy to get 4th place.
assume huckabee wins romney 2nd rudy or fred 3rd. all that money romney spent in iowa would be wasted and he would be compared to steve forbes. huckabee has no chance in NH.

i am in Cedar Rapids (precinct 26) and i am also a bit worried. but we can hope for a big snow storm !

[Adamsa]

I don't know, bad weather with a combination of more supporters could snatch us a cheeky 3rd place.

[Ronnec]

WTF is up with campaign...

[Alex Libman]

The photos of Huck and Mitt raping two Ethiopian boys will be published on January 2nd.

Now, is there anyone here good with PhotoShop? ;)

[Bossobass]

FWIW...

All of my family know about RP
All of my wife's family know about RP
All of my family's friends know about RP
All of my friends know about RP
All of my friend's families know about RP
All of my clients know about RP
All of my neighbors know about RP
My Doctors know about RP
My wife's Doctors and Nurses know about RP
My wife's co-workers all know about RP
My wife's clients (Worldwide) know about RP

Granted we started back in May.

Door-to-door and cold calling are hard at first because it's contrary to human nature these days to make yourself an uninvited guest into a stranger's home. But, we have experience in these sorts of things and have developed a mindset that we have extremely valuable information that we're bringing to folks free of charge on our own unpaid time. We choose to do it because we are as concerned for our neighbors as we are for ourselves when it relates to the future of America.

I know from experience that you never know who will show up and be on your side. Sometimes the people who treat you the rudest become the staunchest supporters. Just planting that seed is the important task.

Thanks for the report from Iowa. Thanks for all of your hard work. It inspires me to do more.

Take a breather and get back to it. This week should be easier to talk to people because they typically wait until this point to play catch up as to whom to vote for.

Bosso

[puppetmaster]

They must be beaten down sheeple??


When I talk to people here in Nevada 95% of the people have heard of him and many are voting for him.

I still get the dreaded "do you really think he has a chance?"
but I say hell yea!! were are going to win!!
:)

[Mattsa]

If RP can get 3rd in Iowa....that'll be good enough

He'll get oodles of media coverage and things can only get better as more people get to hear about him! So don't lose heart!

[hambone1982]

The vast majority of people in Iowa will not show up to either party's caucuses, and my guess is that you would find similar numbers when calling about any other candidate.

I hope you're right.

[Cyclone177]

I was at the rally in Council Bluffs IA 2 weeks ago. The campaign planned on 500 showing up, and they had to bring in around 200 extra chairs. So-around 700 showed up. The campaign said it was 3x more peeps than in the summer.

Iowa is going to surprise people I think. Illegal Immigration is much more of an issue here than in many places. With Tancredo out, Thompson or Paul becomes the guy on that issue. Entire towns that rely on meat packing plants have been taken over by immigrants-some legal, some not legal.

People are pissed in Iowa.

[BrianH]

My sincere congratulations for persevering so hard with the phoning. Everything helps, and the media is now helping the campaign finally with recent TV coverage. If you can get some funds for small local newspaper ads we are finding these help a lot. I have posted three we're doing here: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=65555
and more here: http://ronpaul.meetup.com/267/files/

I can send these in editable format for local customizing - or can customize for you. Anyone interested PM me your e-mail and I'll send the files to you.

[ButchHowdy]

If Paul comes in fifth in Iowa, it will be deemed a failure.
If Paul comes in fourth, it will be deemed neither a success nor a failure.
If Paul comes in third, it will be deemed a success.
If Paul comes in second, it will be deemed an amazing success.
If Paul comes in first, martial law will be declared.

THAT is good! Don't mind if I use this elsewhere!

[azminuteman]

The photos of Huck and Mitt raping two Ethiopian boys will be published on January 2nd.

Now, is there anyone here good with PhotoShop? ;)

Didn't Johnson say to tell the public that your opponent f*cks sheep and he'll have to spend resources disprove it?

[JenaS62]

If Paul comes in fifth in Iowa, it will be deemed a failure.
If Paul comes in fourth, it will be deemed neither a success nor a failure.
If Paul comes in third, it will be deemed a success.
If Paul comes in second, it will be deemed an amazing success.
If Paul comes in first, martial law will be declared.

I'll be very, very happy with third place, but wouldn't be surprised if Paul comes in fourth.


It's funny that you mention martial law. We may have it for both scenarios. My husband just said today - if Ron Paul does not win the nomination or the election if he get's that far - people are going to be pissed and Bush will declare martial law.

[PledgeForPaul]

As a clerical note, I believe my original post was interpreted by some as me saying "I'm sad we will only get 3rd". I meant to say I thought 1st & 2nd seem impossible, and 3rd seems unlikely. Also, I appreciate the user who did the math showing a 3rd place finish may only need the 3 or 4 people I have talked to that may vote RP in my precinct.

Some other things I've thought about:
1. Cold calling has been the hardest thing I've ever done.
2. I have grown upset with the official campaign without realizing it. I've donated significant money to them, but have built this clearly irrational psychological wall against paying $24 to buy yard signs (from rp2008.com store). I've asked the head of the meetup group and head of the Iowa GOP campaign (drew) with no luck. I live near the busiest intersection in Cedar Rapids. What a strange thing that I have spent so many hours on this, but have not paid $24 for some yard signs. It is probably some sort of selfish anger or childish need for recognition. I'm not sure, but I just realized how absurd it is.
3. I have grown slightly annoyed with some of the ronpaulforums users with x,xxx posts who I suspect have done nothing on the ground and are sort of like groupies. I guess groupies are okay. They should just not pretend like they are in the band.
4. I'm also annoyed with all the irrational arguments pro-lifers PM me about why abortion is wrong (I've been debating it in the hot-topics forum). Most of the pro-lifers have rational arguments (that I disagree with), but there is this significant contingency of RP supporters who hold onto logic that would make a 4th grader pee his pants laughing. It just disheartens me and I can only hope they are in middle school or something.
5. I'm kind of disappointed my site pledgeforpaul.com has tapered off. I was hoping it would get more use.
6. Voicing my concerns and skepticism has been helpful. I feel refreshed. Thanks, Forums.

[Eric21ND]

Everyone who wants Ron Paul to win HAS to either call people or knock on doors and talk to people face to face. There's no other way around it. The thing is even if people don't agree with you, you planted that one seed in the back of their mind so they'll probably look into Ron Paul now after you brought him to their attention. If you actually go to their door and speak with them I think that goes a long way and shows you truly care. People tend to respect that and might remember that you took time to speak with them when they go vote.

Oh and make sure you say Ron Paul is the strongest on illegal immigration, since that seems to be the hot topic down there. ALL the other candidates are weak on immigration...McCain, Romney, Huckster. Hit that hot button issue hard my friend. Thanks for all your doing down there!

[AdamT]

I have 200 letters in route now. 100 postmarked 2 days ago, 100 postmarked today. Enforcements on the way!

[SophisticatedFarmGirl]

yest its 2000...

Iowa is stuck in the middle of nowhere america and at this point its quite pathetic that they dont know who Paul is, seriously they are suppose to vote in a few all they need to do is look up on the internet to see who the candidates are...

I knew name recognition would be our downfall in Iowa those hicks are to dumb to look for information on their own and most probably are still on dial up...

I really think if we dont get top 3 in Iowa we might as well give up because the myth that he cant get elected will become reality when people see those results and people will not vote for him...

having said that , FUCK IOWA!

and wtf is the campaign doing in IOWA, I swear our biggest obstacle is an inept campaign not any opponent....


Not a way to win votes, man. My cousin lives in Iowa and is a brilliant scientist. No stereotyping, please.

[Tratzman]

The campaign is starting to find names off their automated polling system and they're relaying them to us county organizers. We are calling to connect with these people and asking that they bring as many RP supporters to the caucus with them as possible. Precinct calling has been met with maybe 2-4% success rate in my experience. Most registered Republicans (75-85%) are not attending the caucus, period.

We have enough RP supporters to easily win the caucus. We just need to find them and get them there on Thursday.

Have some faith in the Hawkeye state!

Chad

[Pete]

Everyone who wants Ron Paul to win HAS to either call people or knock on doors and talk to people face to face. There's no other way around it. The thing is even if people don't agree with you, you planted that one seed in the back of their mind so they'll probably look into Ron Paul now after you brought him to their attention. If you actually go to their door and speak with them I think that goes a long way and shows you truly care. People tend to respect that and might remember that you took time to speak with them when they go vote.



Today I circulated delegate petitions around my neighborhood, and many people were impressed that I cared enough about RP to do so, and wished me luck very sincerely. No one refused to sign. It was a very positive experience.

[Bern]

As a clerical note, I believe my original post was interpreted by some as me saying "I'm sad we will only get 3rd". I meant to say I thought 1st & 2nd seem impossible, and 3rd seems unlikely. Also, I appreciate the user who did the math showing a 3rd place finish may only need the 3 or 4 people I have talked to that may vote RP in my precinct.

I sincerely appreciate your efforts in Iowa. There are a lot of skeptical folks that I converse with (not in Iowa) that believe wholesale in the MSM polls and think Ron Paul won't get better than 2-6% of the vote (they are not paying attention to what's happening day by day either). A 3rd place finish in Iowa with >10% of the vote is going to really surprise a lot of people IMO and get them to take a closer look (in other states).

Take heart. Even the MSM polls are showing Ron Paul's support in Iowa has more than doubled in the last week. Your hard work is laying the foundation.


5. I'm kind of disappointed my site pledgeforpaul.com has tapered off. I was hoping it would get more use.

I never heard of your site, but I did hear about the tea party and I suspect there are a lot of folks who know how to donate directly to the campaign site thanks to the MSM coverage of the two big money bombs. In the end, getting the money to the campaign so they can run the media ads in all the states is the important thing - not whether folks sign up on sites like teaparty07.com or ronpaulpayday.com or your site (I haven't seen it - I'm assuming it allows people to register an intent to donate).

[idiom]

Hey I just found out calling Iowa from Australia via Skype is only € 0.02 per minute.

Maybe I can join in on calling?

[ionlyknowy]

As a clerical note, I believe my original post was interpreted by some as me saying "I'm sad we will only get 3rd". I meant to say I thought 1st & 2nd seem impossible, and 3rd seems unlikely. Also, I appreciate the user who did the math showing a 3rd place finish may only need the 3 or 4 people I have talked to that may vote RP in my precinct.

Some other things I've thought about:
1. Cold calling has been the hardest thing I've ever done.
2. I have grown upset with the official campaign without realizing it. I've donated significant money to them, but have built this clearly irrational psychological wall against paying $24 to buy yard signs (from rp2008.com store). I've asked the head of the meetup group and head of the Iowa GOP campaign (drew) with no luck. I live near the busiest intersection in Cedar Rapids. What a strange thing that I have spent so many hours on this, but have not paid $24 for some yard signs. It is probably some sort of selfish anger or childish need for recognition. I'm not sure, but I just realized how absurd it is.
3. I have grown slightly annoyed with some of the ronpaulforums users with x,xxx posts who I suspect have done nothing on the ground and are sort of like groupies. I guess groupies are okay. They should just not pretend like they are in the band.
4. I'm also annoyed with all the irrational arguments pro-lifers PM me about why abortion is wrong (I've been debating it in the hot-topics forum). Most of the pro-lifers have rational arguments (that I disagree with), but there is this significant contingency of RP supporters who hold onto logic that would make a 4th grader pee his pants laughing. It just disheartens me and I can only hope they are in middle school or something.
5. I'm kind of disappointed my site pledgeforpaul.com has tapered off. I was hoping it would get more use.
6. Voicing my concerns and skepticism has been helpful. I feel refreshed. Thanks, Forums.

I used to do cold call for a credit card collection agency. Believe me it really gets your spirits down... no one wants to be talking to you, and everyone dreads your call. They curse at you they hang up on you they lie to you they do all sorts of things. This just comes with the territory though... Dont let it affect you.

You are making a huge difference and I suspect we will do better than you think in Iowa. :D

[VicVixvi]

In 1941, as World War II raged across Europe and German bombs rained down on London, Prime Minister Winston Churchill was asked to speak at The Harrows School. He was speaking to a group of boys, ready to graduate school, many of whom would also soon fight and die in liberating Europe of the German stranglehold.

When it came time for the Prime Minister to speak, he continued to sit in his chair as the audience became hushed. After several minutes, he slowly rose from his chair and walked slowly to the podium. He gazed across the audience and uttered these words.

Never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy.

Never give up.

Never give up.

Never give up.

[Myerz]

Name Recognition......... One More Time.......name Recognition!

They Will Not Know Anything About Him If They've Never Heard Of Him!!!

[xCakex]

Thank you for all that you do Iowa Team, help out in the days to come until the caucus and then you can all have a breather. Remember to help fund the blimp as it gets A LOT of attention and participate in the massive end of the year march http://www.ronpaulmarch.com we're taking this country back one town at a time!

[bucfish]

Keep up the good work last surges can have a great effect especially with this years lying cheating feld of candidates that are the biggest panderers I have ever seen.

[austin4paul]

I live near the busiest intersection in Cedar Rapids. What a strange thing that I have spent so many hours on this, but have not paid $24 for some yard signs. It is probably some sort of selfish anger or childish need for recognition. I'm not sure, but I just realized how absurd it is.


Dude -- What the...??? Please PM me with your home address and I will Fedex you some yard signs tomorrow!!!!

[pacelli]

In the time you wrote this post I'm sure you could have done something else to make progress towards changing that situation. Pessimism has a tendency to spread. People will read your post and get discouraged. This is not what any of us want. Remember optimism is also contagious. Keep working. You are not alone. Do not get discouraged! We are going to shock the world.

In all due respect, giving him a nice "Thank you!" would have been more appropriate than accusing him of pessimism. His post is giving us some data - which is exactly what we need more of around here. This data reveals that much work needs to be done in the next few days -- which is your conclusion as well based on your quote.

Everyone who is a part of this revolution deserves a little break between phone calls.

[hellah10]

thank you for your hard work in Iowa --- Im confident that it will pay off

[Paul4Prez]

Thanks for your hard work in Iowa, and keep it up -- just one more week! You never know when the next person you call might bring five or six friends with them to the caucus, and tip the scales in Ron Paul's favor.

And I think your PledgeForPaul (http://www.pledgeforpaul.com/) website is a great idea.

[Paul4Prez]

I still get the dreaded "do you really think he has a chance?"
but I say hell yea!! were are going to win!!
:)

This is the number one obstacle facing us right now. Optimism like that will definitely help.

We need to tell people that he would have a lot better chance if everyone who liked him went out and voted for him. Giving up without a fight is what the other candidates are counting on.

[ronpaulblogsdotcom]

Your list might be bad, I think most lists are bad either accidentally or on purpose.

[Tuff_Fish]

Keep up the good work. Please keep up your spirits.

I am one that has become a supporter of late.

Your hard work in Iowa and the hard work of others in New Hampshire will set the stage for the rest of us.

First, a decent showing in Iowa.

A good showing in New Hampshire.

A better showing in South Carolina, Michigan, etc etc.

A fantastic showing out here in California.

Get that blimp out here! We have great weather (San Diego) and it would make a big splash!

[Eric21ND]

I wish we had another blimp for the west coast/midwest. The western states are some of our strongest support.

[Eric21ND]

Today I circulated delegate petitions around my neighborhood, and many people were impressed that I cared enough about RP to do so, and wished me luck very sincerely. No one refused to sign. It was a very positive experience.

All you guys busting your butts in Ohio deserve some major kudos as well. Thank you! If you make it up to Minnesota for the nomination I'll buy you a beer or latte, whatever you prefer. :D

[N13]

Your list might be bad, I think most lists are bad either accidentally or on purpose.

I don't think so.

Generally speaking, here are the stats:

Mail: 1%
Cold Call: 3%
House visit: 9%

Of the three, the easiest gets the lowest results, the one that requires the most work gets the most.

Also: Those are the stats for people who have skills at performing the task.


Our warrior in this thread is actually kicking some but. He deserves those yard signs. :cool:

[Texan4RP]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2YWHBFx3Zg&feature=related

[seapilot]

Sent 20 handwritten letters to Clinton, Iowa as well as many other hundreds of Ron Paul Forumers so you are not alone in this large task by any means. We just do our best the best way we can. Keep up the battle and your efforts will be your reward that the next call might be one more that will caucus for Dr. Paul. Thanks for your effort!

[Cowlesy]

FYI Democratic farmer friends of mine out in Iowa are getting absolutely bombarded by RP messages.

They clearly understand RP, but like I've mentioned in a lot of threads, it is TOUGH TOUGH TOUGH to get most regular voters to take the NEXT step and actually ANALYZE a candidate.

Most think Ron is a liberal. Yes, I know...I promise.

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

I've never deluded myself thinking that RP would finish 1st or 2nd, but 3rd or 4th is very possible, and would shock the pundits.

[me3]

WTF is up with campaign...
Please don't go there. We're out of time to be pointing fingers. Everyone has to dig deep and do what it takes to win.

[thechitowncubs]

Can't wait to go to Iowa tomorrow and shake some things up!

[Dorfsmith]

I've never deluded myself thinking that RP would finish 1st or 2nd, but 3rd or 4th is very possible, and would shock the pundits.

I have some unofficial bets with some friends on a music board. I'm betting 4th. My friends (who like Thompson :rolleyes: ) are saying near last. I would love to see these guys cry if Ron gets 3rd or better :D

[greendiseaser]

If 10% of the 350 vote, then Paul has 3 of 35 or 9%.

Is it possible to send brochures/DVDs or email articles/videos to the undecideds?


http://hawks4ronpaul.blogspot.com/

+1

I think you can put that at around 15 or 17% EASY, because AT LEAST 1% of the population only has cellphones, and that would mean you would get 4 or 5 out of 35 at least, which puts you at 15 or 17% respectively!

Guys. THIS IS STILL VERY MUCH DOABLE!
AVERAGE voter turnout for primaries IS TEN PERCENT in the last 20 years or so.

[cindy25]

is it possible for you to contact local coin shops (if any)? these guys are usually very receptive to RP

[romeo2]

like some people said earlier, voter turn out is the key factor. add to that the immense blizzard the day of and we have ourselves a first place finish. word.

[Question_Authority]

Hate to say it, but if the campaign had taken NH and IA more seriously, we would not be in this bind. We rarely see Dr Paul here in NH. And when he does come, oftentimes it is purposefully under the radar screen. Little advanced notice, if any. Very strange.

And it is similar in IA from what I have gathered. What a shame.

[PledgeForPaul]

In the end, getting the money to the campaign so they can run the media ads in all the states is the important thing - not whether folks sign up on sites like teaparty07.com or ronpaulpayday.com or your site (I haven't seen it - I'm assuming it allows people to register an intent to donate).

It is not to pledge to donate money, it is to pledge to Vote for Ron Paul in your state primary. It also sends an email (along with a couple sentences of pep talk) the day of your caucus as a reminder. I think nov5th and dec16th did well because individuals could bond together to know that their donation would not go in vain. The idea behind pledgeforpaul is similar... to bond people together so caucusing does not feel list a waste of time in the face of what the the main stream media says.

Also, I apologize for the pessimistic tone I've had in this thread. Working for a fixed income trading desk has perhaps given me an overly pessimistic outlook on attempts at forecasting anything. On Dec 15th I didn't think Dec16th would break the Nov5th record and that was certainly a nice surprise! Thanks for all the support. Go Ron Paul!

[Carole]

I'm not trying to be a downer - but I don't think a 2nd or 1st place finish in Iowa is realistic. I think anyone who has done hundreds of Iowa phone calls or gone door to door in Iowa will agree with this.

Of people I have called in Cedar Rapids, at least 75% know nothing of Ron Paul beyond name recognition (but do have impressions of other candidates). Of the 25% that have some impression his views (true or false impressions), very few are planning to caucus for him (but I'm working on that!).

The raw stat from my precinct is, I have talked to about 350 people on the phone (from a phone list of just under 1,000 that I have dialed) and have had a total of 3 (T-H-R-E-E) people say they will vote or will probably vote for Ron Paul. The only way my precinct will get 10 votes for him is if these phone conversations have made a difference on people who already had another candidate in mind. I think this is possible, but talking to other precinct captains I know very few will make it through their lists either (and some have not even started).

I think there are 5 ways RP could finish 3rd or above in Iowa:
1. The anecdotal readings I have gotten have been wrong (possible).
2. Cedar Rapids is significantly lagging other cities in the state (very possible).
3. There are above 5,000 Iowa caucus goers who are not in the phone book and only have a cell phone (not likely based on iowa meetup group size, iowans on ronpaulforms.com, etc).
4. The other precinct captains are working harder then I am (possible).
5. The Project: Iowa door to door campaign + letter writing campaign are going to really translate into an additional 5,000+ votes (possible).

With the race as wide as it is, I bet 3rd place will take only need 10,000 total votes.
Your mood is down right now, but tomorrow is another day.

You can do it. Thank you so much for all you ARE trying to do. Your effort is much appreciated and maybe you could just use a bit of moral support from us here. :)

Please do not give up. When it is over you will be happy that you tried your best and that is all anyone can expect. Personally, I feel you are a warrior in a just cause.

Thanks again. We love you.

[tsetsefly]

It is not to pledge to donate money, it is to pledge to Vote for Ron Paul in your state primary. It also sends an email reminder (along with a couple sentences of pep talk) the day of your caucus as a reminder. I think nov5th and dec16th did well because individuals could bond together to know that their donation would not go in vain. The idea behind pledgeforpaul is similar... to bond people together caucusing does not feel list a waste of time in the face of what the the main stream media says.

Also, I apologize for the pessimistic tone I've had in this thread. Working for a fixed income trading desk has perhaps given me an overly pessimistic outlook on attempts at forecasting anything. On Dec 15th I didn't think Dec16th would break the Nov5th record and that was certainly a nice surprise! Thanks for all the support. Go Ron Paul!
i just cant give my real name, so I gave my email adress and as name "sorry cant give my real name"...

[markpa]

Thanks to everyone who is making calls and doing the work on the ground in the early states!!:D

[pacelli]

Keep up the good work. Please keep up your spirits.

I am one that has become a supporter of late.

Your hard work in Iowa and the hard work of others in New Hampshire will set the stage for the rest of us.

First, a decent showing in Iowa.

A good showing in New Hampshire.

A better showing in South Carolina, Michigan, etc etc.

A fantastic showing out here in California.

Get that blimp out here! We have great weather (San Diego) and it would make a big splash!

Welcome to the forums, glad to have you here :) Don't feel shy about hopping into discussions!

[PledgeForPaul]

If 10% of the 350 vote, then Paul has 3 of 35 or 9%.

Is it possible to send brochures/DVDs or email articles/videos to the undecideds?


http://hawks4ronpaul.blogspot.com/

My routine has been calling from 630 until around 730pm (earlier or later depending on how demoralized I get), then doing lit drop offs to everyone who asked for literature (my phone script revolves around saying where I live and asking if I can stop by to drop off a pamphlet - I live within walking distance of everyone I'm calling). I offer my business card (which shows the well known employer I work at and hopefully makes me seem more like a normal Iowan), and ask if I can add them to my precinct email list (that I won't share with anyone but me). I keep a couple notes on each person (just issues they care about, who they are supporting, etc) and write a follow up email 2 or 3 days later. I also send the list of undecided voters (+ my notes) to a hand written letter volunteer on these forums (letter written entirely in pen) every night. So, yes - I am taking the undecideds I meet very seriously!

[PledgeForPaul]

i just cant give my real name, so I gave my email adress and as name "sorry cant give my real name"...

thats fine. Lots of people have done it.

[shane2]

I still get the dreaded "do you really think he has a chance?"We all know most voters won't seriously consider any candidate that the polls and media have ranked so lowly as to be a poor contender. That is the single most formidable logjam restraining voters from more seriously considering Ron Paul. While that won't be an issue after IA & NH primaries, until then it is our greatest restraint on growth, and even more votes there, and greatest opportunity awaiting us if it's broken through.

This ad below was designed especially to help do so, and will be running shortly in the top dozen Iowa newspapers! (And, top half-dozen New Hampshire newspapers, too!) Details of which/when/where will be posted shortly at http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=63899


http://www.ki4u.com/pollsad.jpg


If you share our enthusiasm for the potential of this ad strategy we also invite you to consider running it yourself in smaller or community or shopper papers there, too. (Or, printed up as a handout, etc.) Just change up the bottom attribution line. Here's the pdf of it, that prints up better and is what newspapers want, shown in actual 5.75" x 6" size...
http://www.ki4u.com/pollsad.pdf

Enjoy!

- Shane

[hellah10]

My routine has been calling from 630 until around 730pm (earlier or later depending on how demoralized I get), then doing lit drop offs to everyone who asked for literature (my phone script revolves around saying where I live and asking if I can stop by to drop off a pamphlet - I live within walking distance of everyone I'm calling). I offer my business card (which shows the well known employer I work at and hopefully makes me seem more like a normal Iowan), and ask if I can add them to my precinct email list (that I won't share with anyone but me). I keep a couple notes on each person (just issues they care about, who they are supporting, etc) and write a follow up email 2 or 3 days later. I also send the list of undecided voters (+ my notes) to a hand written letter volunteer on these forums (letter written entirely in pen) every night. So, yes - I am taking the undecideds I meet very seriously!

your a fucking trooper... simply put... i wish i had the time that motivation to do what your doing for this campaign. Its guys like you that will make this work

i say again... thank you very much for your dedication .. i mean that in all sincerity
.

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

We all know most voters won't seriously consider any candidate that the polls and media have ranked so lowly as to be a poor contender. That is the single most formidable logjam restraining voters from more seriously considering Ron Paul. While that won't be an issue after IA & NH primaries, until then it is our greatest restraint on growth, and even more votes there, and greatest opportunity awaiting us if it's broken through.

This ad below was designed especially to help do so, and will be running shortly in the top dozen Iowa newspapers! (And, top half-dozen New Hampshire newspapers, too!) Details of which/when/where will be posted shortly at http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=63899


http://www.ki4u.com/pollsad.jpg


If you share our enthusiasm for the potential of this ad strategy we also invite you to consider running it yourself in smaller or community or shopper papers there, too. (Or, printed up as a handout, etc.) Just change up the bottom attribution line. Here's the pdf of it, that prints up better and is what newspapers want, shown in actual 5.75" x 6" size...
http://www.ki4u.com/pollsad.pdf

Enjoy!

- Shane

That's a great ad..

[PledgeForPaul]

your a fucking trooper... simply put... i wish i had the time that motivation to do what your doing for this campaign. Its guys like you that will make this work

i say again... thank you very much for your dedication .. i mean that in all sincerity
.

Really isn't that much. The hour of phone calling is hard, then the lit drop is painless and pretty quick. Email followup's are also very quick.

[adpierce]

yest its 2000...

Iowa is stuck in the middle of nowhere america and at this point its quite pathetic that they dont know who Paul is, seriously they are suppose to vote in a few all they need to do is look up on the internet to see who the candidates are...

I knew name recognition would be our downfall in Iowa those hicks are to dumb to look for information on their own and most probably are still on dial up...

I really think if we dont get top 3 in Iowa we might as well give up because the myth that he cant get elected will become reality when people see those results and people will not vote for him...

having said that , FUCK IOWA!

and wtf is the campaign doing in IOWA, I swear our biggest obstacle is an inept campaign not any opponent....

Screw that! I live in Iowa. Iowa ranks among the top 3 in education of all the states in our great union every single year. We're not a bunch of uneducated hicks. Ignorance is an ugly thing, and what you just said was as ignorant as hell. The campaign in Iowa is working hard... I'd wager the people there are working harder to get Ron Paul elected than you ever have. They live breathe and eat this stuff. They haven't the time or energy to watch all the youtube videos or post on this forum. I've worked with these men and women and they're doing the best they can possibly do. I'll probably go back and work with them this week since I've got some time off. Maybe you should write some letters or something rather than fly off and call Iowans stupid ignorant hicks.

Man this stuff pisses me off. I bet you name recognition for Ron Paul is as high here as anywhere in the nation, maybe better. It's just that most people don't care about politics... they think that the system is so fubared up that they don't even want to hear you talk about the person that if they just gave you the time of day they would realize is what they've been looking for all along. I know how easy this cold calling crap wears on you. People don't want to hear it, but the chance you might catch a few in the deluge of people who say no is worth it in these caucuses. Keep up the work. It's not fun most of the time but don't get discouraged we know Ron Paul being elected president would be one of the greatest things this nation has ever accomplished.

[LibertyEagle]

Screw that! I live in Iowa. Iowa ranks among the top 3 in education of all the states in our great union every single year. We're not a bunch of uneducated hicks. Ignorance is an ugly thing, and what you just said was as ignorant as hell. The campaign in Iowa is working hard... I'd wager the people there are working harder to get Ron Paul elected than you ever have. They live breathe and eat this stuff. They haven't the time or energy to watch all the youtube videos or post on this forum. I've worked with these men and women and they're doing the best they can possibly do. I'll probably go back and work with them this week since I've got some time off. Maybe you should write some letters or something rather than fly off and call Iowans stupid ignorant hicks.

Man this stuff pisses me off. I bet you name recognition for Ron Paul is as high here as anywhere in the nation, maybe better. It's just that most people don't care about politics... they think that the system is so fubared up that they don't even want to hear you talk about the person that if they just gave you the time of day they would realize is what they've been looking for all along. I know how easy this cold calling crap wears on you. People don't want to hear it, but the chance you might catch a few in the deluge of people who say no is worth it in these caucuses. Keep up the work. It's not fun most of the time but don't get discouraged we know Ron Paul being elected president would be one of the greatest things this nation has ever accomplished.


Keep your chin up and thank you for all you are doing. If we do well in Iowa, it surely will help us out a lot.

[LibertyEagle]

adpierce, have you heard anyone talking about the 30 minute infomercial, who weren't already RP supporters? If so, what did they think about it?

[adpierce]

Keep your chin up and thank you for all you are doing. If we do well in Iowa, it surely will help us out a lot.

Honestly my work here in Iowa is sporadic... I'm a student and when I haven't been in class or studying then working kept me away from being able to really campaign for RP. I'm going to try to log some more time with the campaign this week though. I'm sure they can use my help given the caucus is literally just a week away at the time of this post.

[Mastiff]

WTF is up with campaign...

State HQ wrote me back and said my precinct is covered. They're doing something.

[qwerty]

I'm not trying to be a downer - but I don't think a 2nd or 1st place finish in Iowa is realistic. I think anyone who has done hundreds of Iowa phone calls or gone door to door in Iowa will agree with this.

Of people I have called in Cedar Rapids, at least 75% know nothing of Ron Paul beyond name recognition (but do have impressions of other candidates). Of the 25% that have some impression his views (true or false impressions), very few are planning to caucus for him (but I'm working on that!).

The raw stat from my precinct is, I have talked to about 350 people on the phone (from a phone list of just under 1,000 that I have dialed) and have had a total of 3 (T-H-R-E-E) people say they will vote or will probably vote for Ron Paul. The only way my precinct will get 10 votes for him is if these phone conversations have made a difference on people who already had another candidate in mind. I think this is possible, but talking to other precinct captains I know very few will make it through their lists either (and some have not even started).

I think there are 5 ways RP could finish 3rd or above in Iowa:
1. The anecdotal readings I have gotten have been wrong (possible).
2. Cedar Rapids is significantly lagging other cities in the state (very possible).
3. There are above 5,000 Iowa caucus goers who are not in the phone book and only have a cell phone (not likely based on iowa meetup group size, iowans on ronpaulforms.com, etc).
4. The other precinct captains are working harder then I am (possible).
5. The Project: Iowa door to door campaign + letter writing campaign are going to really translate into an additional 5,000+ votes (possible).

With the race as wide as it is, I bet 3rd place will take only need 10,000 total votes.

i agree.......:(

[SteveMartin]

We all know most voters won't seriously consider any candidate that the polls and media have ranked so lowly as to be a poor contender. That is the single most formidable logjam restraining voters from more seriously considering Ron Paul. While that won't be an issue after IA & NH primaries, until then it is our greatest restraint on growth, and even more votes there, and greatest opportunity awaiting us if it's broken through.

This ad below was designed especially to help do so, and will be running shortly in the top dozen Iowa newspapers! (And, top half-dozen New Hampshire newspapers, too!) Details of which/when/where will be posted shortly at http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=63899


http://www.ki4u.com/pollsad.jpg


If you share our enthusiasm for the potential of this ad strategy we also invite you to consider running it yourself in smaller or community or shopper papers there, too. (Or, printed up as a handout, etc.) Just change up the bottom attribution line. Here's the pdf of it, that prints up better and is what newspapers want, shown in actual 5.75" x 6" size...
http://www.ki4u.com/pollsad.pdf

Enjoy!

- Shane

AND...you can help us purchase REAL, TRUTHFUL, UNBIASED POLLS before NH, if you go to www.TheFreedomNetwork.US and Chipin towards the $7800 needed. We have collected $910 so far, and need the rest by 1/4/08.

Thanks everyone!

[hotfuzz]

We all know most voters won't seriously consider any candidate that the polls and media have ranked so lowly as to be a poor contender. That is the single most formidable logjam restraining voters from more seriously considering Ron Paul. While that won't be an issue after IA & NH primaries, until then it is our greatest restraint on growth, and even more votes there, and greatest opportunity awaiting us if it's broken through.

This ad below was designed especially to help do so, and will be running shortly in the top dozen Iowa newspapers! (And, top half-dozen New Hampshire newspapers, too!) Details of which/when/where will be posted shortly at http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=63899


http://www.ki4u.com/pollsad.jpg


If you share our enthusiasm for the potential of this ad strategy we also invite you to consider running it yourself in smaller or community or shopper papers there, too. (Or, printed up as a handout, etc.) Just change up the bottom attribution line. Here's the pdf of it, that prints up better and is what newspapers want, shown in actual 5.75" x 6" size...
http://www.ki4u.com/pollsad.pdf

Enjoy!

- Shane

Doesn't this ad run into some legal problems? Given that it's clearly in support of Dr. Paul but not paid for by a PAC, committee, or 527??

[MsDoodahs]

Individuals are still allowed to spend their own money to express their own views. For now. :)

[malibu]

The platform of the Republican Party in Linn County (Cedar Rapids) really includes alot of what
Ron Paul's domestic platform would be,
but most importantly those former eastern Iowa congressional districts of Jim Leach
( one of the handful of GOP Congressman to oppose the Iraqi War Resolution Act of 2002 )
are the catholic side of the state that were really ready for strong Ron Paul support from the Sanctity of Life to seperation of church and state -

Painfully, Des Moines had their plan back in June to purposefully and inadvertently squash eastern Iowa grassroots efforts and they did it again still through November and December . . .
Obama has been the benefactor of that stategy.

[Mastiff]

Painfully, Des Moines had their plan back in June to purposefully and inadvertently squash eastern Iowa grassroots efforts and they did it again still through November and December . . .
Obama has been the benefactor of that stategy.

What are you talking about?

[Jordan]

You called 350 people and got 3 people who said they will vote for Ron Paul. That is just about 1% voting for him. Only 6% of people turn out to vote, if the Ron Paul supporters show up, we're looking at 16% of the votes. Thats pretty good.

[Gimpster]

Another Iowan here.

I'm starting to wonder about my precinct here in DSM as well.

I hope I'm wrong, but the 7-10 people we had lined up... only I and one other guy have been in constant contact. He lives about 4 houses down from me, and I think that's the reason why. The others are no longer responding to email etc. The other guy is going to attempt to call them tonight/this weekend since I'm out of town on business.

I've even written the short 2-3 minute speech for my candidate, since nobody else was interested.

I'm showing up to my caucus come hell or high water, but I'm pretty bummed. It seems like some of the people we talked to are ANNOYED they can't just show up and cast a vote like a normal primary state. Unfortunatly this is how Iowa works (caucus) and you've got to play within the rules.

Nobody wants to be a delegate either in my precinct, so I guess if it comes down to it... I'll do that too. Most of them said they had no interest of being part of the GOP, and that's fine... I understand that. However, just like Ron Paul, we have to play within the system we're given. It appears that we have 4 delegates and 2 alternates for my precinct.

[malibu]

What are you talking about?

Stiffing Cedar Rapids

[shadowhooch]

Another Iowan here.

I'm starting to wonder about my precinct here in DSM as well.

I hope I'm wrong, but the 7-10 people we had lined up... only I and one other guy have been in constant contact. He lives about 4 houses down from me, and I think that's the reason why. The others are no longer responding to email etc. The other guy is going to attempt to call them tonight/this weekend since I'm out of town on business.

I've even written the short 2-3 minute speech for my candidate, since nobody else was interested.

I'm showing up to my caucus come hell or high water, but I'm pretty bummed. It seems like some of the people we talked to are ANNOYED they can't just show up and cast a vote like a normal primary state. Unfortunatly this is how Iowa works (caucus) and you've got to play within the rules.

Nobody wants to be a delegate either in my precinct, so I guess if it comes down to it... I'll do that too. Most of them said they had no interest of being part of the GOP, and that's fine... I understand that. However, just like Ron Paul, we have to play within the system we're given. It appears that we have 4 delegates and 2 alternates for my precinct.

So what goes on in this "caucus" you have? How long does it last and is there a set time and place to be? I'm trying to let my cousin know (who lives in Iowa). Thanks for the help.

[curtisag]

Lets assume for the moment that only about 6% of the voting population votes in the caucus (based on historical data). Let us also assume that your phone calls are representative of Ron Paul's support at about 1% success rate. Well, that means 1 out of 6 people who intend to caucus are definitely for Paul. That's not counting people with cell phones only either. So at a bare minimum, you can expect Ron Paul to get at least 16.6% of the caucus vote, add in the cell users and you probably get around 20 to 25%.

[thechitowncubs]

Wish me luck, leaving for Iowa in an hour and a half!

[BrianH]

So what goes on in this "caucus" you have? How long does it last and is there a set time and place to be? I'm trying to let my cousin know (who lives in Iowa). Thanks for the help.
It's basically a GOP meeting starting to build their election platform from the grassroots up.
From Drew Ivers: For more information on the caucus process, please go to www.ronpaul2008.com/states/iowa. We have created a caucus handbook you can download and print, and also a caucus training video.

[scooter]

Don't get discouraged up there in Iowa. You all are doing a great job.

If Paul pulls 3rd in Iowa he will not be considered a candidate with zero chance any more. He already has huge support in New Hampshire. So if he pulls at least third in Iowa and then comes out on top in New Hampshire, he will definitely be on the map in this election.

[Leslie Webb]

Does anyone know what effect the letter writing campaign is having? Supporters have sent out more than 524,000 letters to Iowa voters registered no party. One person in Cedar Rapids I talked to this morning was very interested in hearing Ron Paul speak. I had written and included info on the Dec. 29 Ron Paul rally in Cedar Rapids. I called to say the rally had been cancelled. It was nice to get a positive response.

I would hope that many students at the University of Iowa in Iowa City are probably be leaning towards Ron Paul. Has the campaign has given the eastern part of the state short shrift?

PledgeforPaul, we appreciate all your work. Cold calling is hard and thankless. Send us a picture of those yard signs when you get them from Austin4Paul!

[skinzterpswizfan]

Lets assume for the moment that only about 6% of the voting population votes in the caucus (based on historical data). Let us also assume that your phone calls are representative of Ron Paul's support at about 1% success rate. Well, that means 1 out of 6 people who intend to caucus are definitely for Paul. That's not counting people with cell phones only either. So at a bare minimum, you can expect Ron Paul to get at least 16.6% of the caucus vote, add in the cell users and you probably get around 20 to 25%.

This is assuming we have 100% voter turnout, and as fanatical of a following Paul might have, there's no way we will have 100%.

[DanConway]

I sent another 50 letters to previous caucus voters from Cedar Rapids today. That makes 100 to CR, and 500 to Iowa, and that's it for me for the Iowa letters, since I think I'm out of time to be sure they'll get there. I know some other people have sent letters to CR through P4P.

Maybe, just maybe, Paul will win P4P's precinct because of our efforts here. I hope so.

[zcopley]

Thank you for all your hard work!

Zach

[Opulen]

Just keep going and going and going.. like the energizer bunny.

"Victory belongs to the most persevering"
-Napoleon Bonaparte

[Mastiff]

Just keep going and going and going.. like the energizer bunny.

"Victory belongs to the most persevering"
-Napoleon Bonaparte

We're reaching saturation on phone calls in Iowa. They've hired professional callers and other supporters are reporting receiving multiple calls. We don't want to annoy people. It's time to organize now. I'm waiting for my final list of supporters in my precinct so I can try to contact everyone.

[malibu]

We're reaching saturation on phone calls in Iowa. They've hired professional callers and other supporters are reporting receiving multiple calls. We don't want to annoy people. It's time to organize now. I'm waiting for my final list of supporters in my precinct so I can try to contact everyone.

Hiring professional callers in Iowa after refusing to support the grassroots volunteer and the student volunteer
phone calling efforts especially during November and early December was VERY dumb
and should NOT be a strategy and "tried and true" tactic to be repeated in Florida, Texas. California or other states.

[stevedasbach]

I have a list of 500 people to call in Cedar Rapids. I don't have the stomach for it. My wife said she'd help call but now she's waffling. I sent an E-mail to the state HQ asking if some of the volunteers could help me out, but I haven't heard back.

The good news is that I have 7 people already in my precinct, so we're not totally stuck.

I'm considering a robo-call since I can call everyone in my precinct for about $50, but I'm not quite sure what it would say aside from "press 1 if you are a Paul supporter". This would let me ferret out any other supporters.

Reports I heard indicate that Iowans are sick of the robo-calls.

[LibertyEagle]

Does anyone know what effect the letter writing campaign is having? Supporters have sent out more than 524,000 letters to Iowa voters registered no party. One person in Cedar Rapids I talked to this morning was very interested in hearing Ron Paul speak. I had written and included info on the Dec. 29 Ron Paul rally in Cedar Rapids. I called to say the rally had been cancelled. It was nice to get a positive response.



Why was it canceled? I just do not understand why he isn't going all over Iowa.

[Mastiff]

Why was it canceled? I just do not understand why he isn't going all over Iowa.

Good question. We called a bunch of people to tell them about it, then it was promptly canceled. I hope they have a good reason. RP will be in Iowa pre-caucus, but we don't know where. There are some disappointed people out here.

I'm awkward on the phone anyway, and now I need to call people back to tell them the meeting is off.

[tsetsefly]

Good question. We called a bunch of people to tell them about it, then it was promptly canceled. I hope they have a good reason. RP will be in Iowa pre-caucus, but we don't know where. There are some disappointed people out here.

I'm awkward on the phone anyway, and now I need to call people back to tell them the meeting is off.

HQ dropping the ball again, they need to tell all their volunteers, us , meetups etc. their schedule for IOWA...

[Mastiff]

Reports I heard indicate that Iowans are sick of the robo-calls.

Absolutely. They told us all to stand down anyway and make way for the professional callers.

[Psyclone]

I've gotten two robocalls for Ron Paul in the last 30 hours, both were from different sponsors and neither was from the official campaign. I'm not sure whether this is good or bad. It's good we are getting the word out, but bad if people are starting to get annoyed.

[FreedomLover]

I've gotten two robocalls for Ron Paul in the last 30 hours, both were from different sponsors and neither was from the official campaign. I'm not sure whether this is good or bad. It's good we are getting the word out, but bad if people are starting to get annoyed.

Can you describe how the robo calls started? Did you have to press a button to talk to a real person?

[Psyclone]

The first one told me to press "1" if I was planning to vote for Ron Paul and "9" if I wanted to be taken off the calling list but did not offer the option of talking to a real person. The second listed Dr. Paul's policy positions and then it told me to press "1" if I wanted to speak to a real live campaign representative.

[PubliusPublicola]

With the race as wide as it is, I bet 3rd place will take only need 10,000 total votes.

10k. 18k. Same difference.

It's in range, but the question comes down to voter turn-out.

I never thought he had much of a real chance at 1st or 2nd in Iowa, but i still can imagine 3rd place even if that's just barely edging Mccain who seems to be having a surge.

I imagine 3rd and 4th being in the 13-18% ranges.

If Paul's polling in the 10% range, that means it's viable with strong turn-out.