Vote tallies by state and county 2004 presidential election

[LarryWhite]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/president/


You can go into state by state voter totals and even county to county. I have been using it to try and guage how many votes it will take to win a particular county.

First look at the crossover vote from Democrats voting Bush. In my state, it was 30%! That takes about 10,000 votes away my county.

Then figure 50% or less will actually vote in the primary in a typical pres primary election, then figure this is establishment votes, so that will be split 3 ways (Mitt,Rudy,Fred) at the very least.

That'll give you approximately how many voters you'll need to win.

In my county, Bush had 44,000 votes. After all of the above, I'm figuring this county can be won with around 6000 votes. There's 55 delegate slots in my county, so that's abot 110 voters per delegate.

Close to 50,000 people 18 and over aren't registered or bother voting in my county.

This can be done. It won't be easy, but nothing worth having ever is.

[scmomof2]

being new to SC and the south this link was really interesting - thanks! I was surprised by many of the percentages county to county - even in my home state of NY :)

[LarryWhite]

Wikipedia is good too, that's where I obtained the unregistered voter #. They don't give that # to you outright, but you get a # of total people in the county, then they give the % that are under 18, so just times the % of people over 18 by the the total people in the county and that gives you the # of people over 18.

subtract that from the total voters in the county from the cnn website, and that gives you the # of people over 18 that didn't register or vote.

[Spirit of '76]

Thanks for the info, Larry. I got your second email, and I'll be getting back in touch with you on some things.

Folks, Larry is working hard to spread the word in here WV. He's gonna help us win this thing. Some of the facts and figures he's pointed out are very encouraging!

[LarryWhite]

I'm all about numbers, and that's all elections are, just numbers. And with 50% or more of the people don't register and don't vote, those numbers can be manipulated in very interesting ways.

Combine that with the support for the war continuing to erode, this can be done if enough people hear the message. Democrats have been against this war since at least 2004, even more so in 2006, but the support for the war continues to drop every poll they do. What does that tell you? That support from Republicans is slipping, maybe not huge each time, but it's there. I think we're around 20% to 25% of Repubs against this war, and with 3 frontrunners splitting the pro-war vote, 20 or 25% of Repubs with 10% or more new voters may be all we need