AOL STraw Poll does not track Rasmussen why is that?

[Falseflagop]

This is what a letter posted at What Really Happened .com said and Mike's response.


READER: AOL Straw Poll v. Rasmussen Tracking Poll
Ron 29 % v Rasmussen 6 %
Giuliani 17 % v. Rasmussen 16 %
Huckabee 19 % v. Rasmussen 19 %
McCain 14% v. Rasmussen 15 %
Romney 14 % v. Rasmussen 15 %
Thompson 9 % v. Rasmusssen 11 %

WRH: Odd how Rasmussen is tracking the results accurately for all the "accepted" candidates, and is so toally wrong on Ron Paul.



This letter and Mike's answer nails it! We are going to do this

[mexicanpizza]

Was there supposed to be a link here?

[Ingarbloody]

Compare the AOL Poll
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2007/12/21/straw-poll-dec-21-jan-4/
Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Notice the democrat side is pretty close too
Hillary 45% 40%
Obama 27% 24%
Edwards 16% 15%
Biden 4% 3%
Richardson 3% 3%
Kucinich 3% 3%

[yongrel]

spammers

[Trigonx]

wow, they are very close to each other for every candidate except Ron Paul.

[skilt]

but, be careful about comparing the numbers b/w offline and on line support, as it's been made very clear that we are very strong online, and the other candidates are not. So, I feel we need to discount that 29% to closer to 20%. All the more reason to push really hard and get it to 29%.

Sk

[rich34]

You also have to take into account the voting block. Most likely with the aol poll not many of the senior citizens are being hit and likewise with the Rasmussen poll they're not hitting the younger crowd. So I'd say we're somewhere in between, but most definately right in position to pull this off!

[ItsTime]

thanks for that info... I like it

[Goldwater Conservative]

You also have to take into account the voting block. Most likely with the aol poll not many of the senior citizens are being hit and likewise with the Rasmussen poll they're not hitting the younger crowd. So I'd say we're somewhere in between, but most definately right in position to pull this off!

But AOL is a dying brand. People still using it probably aren't the same young people Paul is credited as appealing to, since they like their high-speed for downloading music and YouTube and social networking. Even if the advantage came from young people, wouldn't Obama be doing better?

AOL's customer base is not even necessarily a poorer demographic, considering DSL is only a few dollars more a month. I'd guess they're people who finally became comfortable with this new-fangled Interweb and aren't ready or don't need to upgrade. In which case, they're actually older.

And the fact that both sides have similar vote totals (90K for the Dems, 100K for the GOP) means that little spamming is going on, unless people are also spamming for Clinton. However, as has been pointed out, the poll numbers match the results for the 'crats.

[AlexMerced]

though the offline polls polla different crowd, small samples are more accurate than big samples by most market research standards. To see this online poll be so similar tells me two things:

- the national polls are accurate as far as "likeley republican voters" and since these candidates really targeted these voters, they are the ONLY voters they have

- non-likely voters add a lot more than anyone imagined to Ron Pauls campaign, and if these voters turn our it's a landslide victory creepily similar to Reagan's first run for president when he won 44 states and then won 49 states the second time around.

The story of Reagan and Ron Paul mirror each other more and more each day

[Chester Copperpot]

But AOL is a dying brand. People still using it probably aren't the same young people Paul is credited as appealing to, since they like their high-speed for downloading music and YouTube and social networking. Even if the advantage came from young people, wouldn't Obama be doing better?

AOL's customer base is not even necessarily a poorer demographic, considering DSL is only a few dollars more a month. I'd guess they're people who finally became comfortable with this new-fangled Interweb and aren't ready or don't need to upgrade. In which case, they're actually older.

And the fact that both sides have similar vote totals (90K for the Dems, 100K for the GOP) means that little spamming is going on, unless people are also spamming for Clinton. However, as has been pointed out, the poll numbers match the results for the 'crats.

AGREED. Ive seen AOL polls before where Ron Paul has lost to people like Rudy...

its like AOL is for the 55 and older crowd.

[FreedomLover]

Ron Paul supporters are not your typical "likely" voter. They were probably the most unlikely voters a year ago. And they tend to be younger as well, where as polls have a slight tilt towards older voters.

AOL is a good crowd to check as well. It's population is akin to the regular tv viewing american population...not very technologically-savy.

[TheNewYorker]

This is what a letter posted at What Really Happened .com said and Mike's response.


READER: AOL Straw Poll v. Rasmussen Tracking Poll
Ron 29 % v Rasmussen 6 %
Giuliani 17 % v. Rasmussen 16 %
Huckabee 19 % v. Rasmussen 19 %
McCain 14% v. Rasmussen 15 %
Romney 14 % v. Rasmussen 15 %
Thompson 9 % v. Rasmusssen 11 %

WRH: Odd how Rasmussen is tracking the results accurately for all the "accepted" candidates, and is so toally wrong on Ron Paul.


It's quite simple. Ramussen polls only poll neocons that voted in the last election. That's why the numbers for every other candidate match almost exactly but not for Paul.

The AOL thing polls EVERYONE including independents, which gives Ron Paul a more realistic number. It's pretty obvious Ron Paul is really polling at 29% or about there when you figure in all voters, and not just ones that are "likely republican voters".

[AlexMerced]

I think this poll taking a lot into consideration will prove to be SOMEWHAT within a reason


Again, it's all about turnout or people who DID REGiSTER

[Goldwater Conservative]

I think this poll taking a lot into consideration will prove to be SOMEWHAT within a reason

Hell, cutting Paul's numbers in half still puts him just two points shy of first place and smack in the middle of the Rudi McRombee fist-fight going on.

[AlexMerced]

this thread brings up really good points, so bump

[freedominnumbers]

This is exactly how I expected the numbers to work out.

Take the polling numbers for the top tier add them up and subtract them from 100. That's RP's base.

[Santana28]

i dont know...but we just took both massachusetts and utah from Romney, and Wyoming was briefly MCcains this morning but we got it back. Right now only NY and NJ belong to Guiliani.... how long til they fall too??

[AlexMerced]

Well, I'll be in NY soon, it's going down, plus I'll be voting in the NY primary

[Paulitician]

40% for Hillary... scary. People must really be stupid