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View Full Version : We won the massive AOL straw poll




voytechs
12-25-2007, 03:58 PM
We did it:

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2285/2136564020_43359eb984.jpg?v=0 (http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2007/12/21/straw-poll-dec-21-jan-4/90#comments)


On the Republican side the results mirrored media generated polls with one exception. Ron Paul is placing first in most states and second in several others.

The results of the other candidates did mirror media generated polls. Giuliani is winning in New York and New Jersey and Connecticut but is being edged out by Paul in Florida and New Mexico. Florida and New Mexico have changed hands several times between Giuliani and Paul.

Romney is winning Utah, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.

Huckabee is edging out Paul in South Carolina and is being edged out by Paul in several southern states. Several southern states are virtual ties and have swung back and forth between Huckabee and Paul, including North Carolina, Alabama, and Arkansas.

Nationwide Ron Paul is generating 26% of the vote, Giuliani is getting 18%, Huckabee 17%, and Romney is getting 15%, McCain has 14%, Thompson 9%, and Duncan Hunter has 1%.

In Iowa Ron Paul has 38% of the vote. The rest of the GOP candidates mirror media generated polls regarding strength in the state. Huckabee and Romney are tied at 19%. Thompson has 9%, McCain 7%, and Giuliani 7%, with Hunter at 1%.

In New Hampshire Paul has 30% Romney 23% McCain 20%, Giuliani 15%, Huckabee 8%, Thompson 3%, and Hunter 1%. Once again, aside from Paul the candidates mirror media polls regarding strength nationally and regionally.

Paul supporters have maintained that media generated polls have been under representing his support. Paul leads GOP candidates in 4rth quarter fund raising. He has received donations from an astounding 123,000 donors this quarter.

OptionsTrader
12-25-2007, 03:59 PM
Is it January 4 already? I need to set my watch, damn.

PimpBlimp
12-25-2007, 04:00 PM
Good news

ExpatinArgentina
12-25-2007, 04:01 PM
Nice going all.

Airborn
12-25-2007, 04:04 PM
:) Good Job guys. Good article on it also.

voytechs
12-25-2007, 04:04 PM
Is it January 4 already? I need to set my watch, damn.

Yikes, you're right, but hey we have a huge lead, I don't think anyone is catching up to us.

I still haven't advertised this poll anywhere so few hundred more votes coming.

OptionsTrader
12-25-2007, 04:08 PM
Yikes, you're right, but hey we have a huge lead, I don't think anyone is catching up to us.

I still haven't advertised this poll anywhere so few hundred more votes coming.

Guess I'll reset the watch then. Back to December 25 it goes...

akforme
12-25-2007, 04:32 PM
Even more, RP supporters are two things: 1. not going to change to another canidate 2. are going to vote.

webber53
12-25-2007, 04:40 PM
Congratulations everyone!!

steve005
12-25-2007, 05:08 PM
bump

wgadget
12-25-2007, 05:15 PM
And the nice thing about THIS poll is that if someone wants to vote Republican, they are welcome to...whether they were a Democrat, Republican, or Independent in 2004, as per those "other" polls. This is a truer reflection of REALITY, IMO.

Go Ron!

Johnnybags
12-25-2007, 05:19 PM
all the Republicans get their clocks cleaned in total votes. Funny, all the ohter matrix make sense with theofficial polls except Paul, an anomaly? No, simply the MSM and control cartel owning all the polls and media. So, clearly, no other Necon can win.

phixion
12-25-2007, 05:24 PM
Please people, remember when you recruit people to vote and SKEW the poll, it's not an accurate reflection of the general population visiting AOL anymore.

If you want to REALLY gauge Ron Pauls support in these polls, STOP SKEWING and voting - and leave the normal visitors to the site to cast their votes without the influx of people here etc.

It's almost like you want to keep living in a dream world by skewing these polls.

If you want accurate reflections of the general populations support of online polls, stop placing the URLs here and all over the shop. It's just silly and makes the poll irrelevant.

Just like the straw polls. It all means NOTHING.

It might get some nice press and make others think Ron Paul has a chance.. but that's the best you can hope for by doing it.

Pete

CriticalThinker
12-25-2007, 05:27 PM
I live in Utah.

Clearly the DUMBEST state in the union - :(

Well ... I've done my part as much as possible.

ProBlue33
12-25-2007, 05:27 PM
make others think Ron Paul has a chance

Thats the whole idea :)

It looks like McCain is making a comeback of sorts, how can people support that Bush lover. :(

phixion
12-25-2007, 05:35 PM
make others think Ron Paul has a chance

Thats the whole idea :)

It looks like McCain is making a comeback of sorts, how can people support that Bush lover. :(

Yeah I'm all for making others think Ron has a chance by doing this.

My only problem is when Paul supporters read in to skewed polls like they're accurate - it's a little nutty.

Pete

ValidusCustodiae
12-25-2007, 05:40 PM
Hey pete, what few supporters the other candidates have are linking the straw poll also and are desperate to beat us. They are "skewing" the results as well.

What about the "skewed" nature of the "official" polls ?

Paul4Prez
12-25-2007, 05:43 PM
The great news here is that Ron Paul's support is truly nationwide, although we already knew that.

The poll is pretty useful, though -- you can click on any state and see who the toughest competition is going to be there.

speciallyblend
12-25-2007, 05:54 PM
blimpin 31% Colorado next is romney at 19%;) lets keep it rolling NH/IA/SC/NV we are watching,do us proud on election day

pacelli
12-25-2007, 06:02 PM
Yeah I'm all for making others think Ron has a chance by doing this.

My only problem is when Paul supporters read in to skewed polls like they're accurate - it's a little nutty.

Pete

I'm not sure I agree with your argument that the online polls are skewed. Of course looking at the results, Ron Paul dominates. There is nothing stopping any other candidates supporters from rallying to vote in every online poll posted. Is a poll skewed because Ron Paul supporters are enthusiastic about our candidate? Many phone polls are skewed in advance by leaving Dr. Paul out of them completely. Polls are attempting to predict a US election result, thus being representative of the entire US population. It only seems reasonable that you would want more participation from the supporters of other candidates -- but don't blame us for their lack of enthusiasm.

I think the only "nutty" thing about the results are that once they are tallied, your suggestion is to stop voting in them? Why not encourage Giuliani supporters to vote in them instead?

The only way we'll know if these online & phone polls are accurate is to wait and see how the primaries go. It is all speculation until we get real results.

ProBlue33
12-25-2007, 06:04 PM
Even in the 4 states that he is losing in, he is down only small amounts.

Utah 10% Mitt
NY 10% Rudy
NJ 5% Rudy
MA 4% Mitt

unloud
12-25-2007, 06:08 PM
"Paul supporters have maintained that media generated polls have been under representing his support. Paul leads GOP candidates in 4rth quarter fund raising. He has received donations from an astounding 123,000 donors this quarter."

This is awesome. They didn't say stuff like "Obviously, Dr. Paul has the best internet presence of all the candidates". What a breath of fresh air.

Scott Wilson
12-25-2007, 06:10 PM
Internet polls do not reflect reality.

I speak to a lot of people every day here in Tennessee and I know for a fact Ron Paul is not winning here in Tennessee. There are a lot of Fred Thompson supporters and Mike Huckabee supporters.

We have a lot of work to do.

Doorknocking is win.

ProBlue33
12-25-2007, 08:15 PM
Wyoming keeps flipping back and forth

Ronnec
12-25-2007, 08:26 PM
We have a strong internet presence eh-DUH.

Knock on doors and vote, people.

smartguy911
12-25-2007, 08:26 PM
Internet polls do not reflect reality.

I speak to a lot of people every day here in Tennessee and I know for a fact Ron Paul is not winning here in Tennessee. There are a lot of Fred Thompson supporters and Mike Huckabee supporters.

We have a lot of work to do.

Doorknocking is win.

you guys need to stop relying on these online polls. they don't reflect reality. they are not spam proof. One person can over 5-10 times in the same poll as long they clear out all cookies in their browser.

Focus on getting the word out and keep telling people about Dr. Paul.

paulitics
12-25-2007, 09:09 PM
What I do is completely take RP completely out of it. The democrats have the republicans beat 97,000 to 74,000. Make of it what you will.

RichardC
12-25-2007, 09:13 PM
What I do is completely take RP completely out of it. The democrats have the republicans beat 97,000 to 74,000. Make of it what you will.

exactly. we should be concerned about that right now... even if he gets the republican nomination he faces a name recognition battle against clinton. it is an uphill battle that we need to keep working for.

ionlyknowy
12-25-2007, 09:17 PM
What I do is completely take RP completely out of it. The democrats have the republicans beat 97,000 to 74,000. Make of it what you will.

It means to me that the Republicans base is so small that if they lose RP votes then they automatically lose in the general election to the Dems.

It is either RP or a Dem.

Because we all know that SOME of the support in the RP came is Dems switched to Rep. and Indys that would not vote Rep. if it werent for Paul

So it is interesting to see that even with RP added in, the Rep and Dems are about equal in numbers in the poll. Take Paul out Rep. lose.

Kotin
12-25-2007, 09:31 PM
wow there were 9000 votes in cali and we won overwhelmingly!!

voisine
12-25-2007, 09:49 PM
If you want accurate reflections of the general populations support of online polls, stop placing the URLs here and all over the shop. It's just silly and makes the poll irrelevant.

I would agree with this statement if we wanted a reflection of the general population's support, but we don't. We want an accurate reflection of support among people who care enough to vote in the primaries. You seem to be forgetting that we'll be posting primary/caucus dates and locations all over the web, in youtube videos, going door to door canvassing and doing everything we can to skew the *actual vote*. 20% of eligible voters vote in the primaries. Less that half of those will be voting in the Republican primaries this time due to the party's current unpopularity. We only need 25-30% of those votes to win.

voytechs
12-25-2007, 09:55 PM
Please people, remember when you recruit people to vote and SKEW the poll, it's not an accurate reflection of the general population visiting AOL anymore.

If you want to REALLY gauge Ron Pauls support in these polls, STOP SKEWING and voting - and leave the normal visitors to the site to cast their votes without the influx of people here etc.

It's almost like you want to keep living in a dream world by skewing these polls.

If you want accurate reflections of the general populations support of online polls, stop placing the URLs here and all over the shop. It's just silly and makes the poll irrelevant.

Just like the straw polls. It all means NOTHING.

It might get some nice press and make others think Ron Paul has a chance.. but that's the best you can hope for by doing it.

Pete

Other candidates are doing it as well. Its evening out the field. Its a measure of grassroots strength.

Real_CaGeD
12-25-2007, 10:02 PM
I will say it without shame. I believe this poll to be very accurate.

bc2208
12-25-2007, 10:09 PM
The vote totals are 107k republicans to 97k democrats. If you assume the two parties are relatively even in strength, and the 10k is "ron paul spam," ron paul still leads with 22,000 votes. Obviously conjecture, but a spammed poll would show a heavy imbalance to the side of the spammer.

AlexMerced
12-25-2007, 10:10 PM
I think the poll is a positive sign, how positive we'll find out January 3rd

Shavenyak
12-25-2007, 10:10 PM
you guys need to stop relying on these online polls. they don't reflect reality. they are not spam proof. One person can over 5-10 times in the same poll as long they clear out all cookies in their browser.

Focus on getting the word out and keep telling people about Dr. Paul.

Remember, though, so can all the other voters.

Real_CaGeD
12-25-2007, 10:31 PM
I have 4 RP votes in my emediate family, one vote on AOL.

Doc Dewey
12-25-2007, 10:38 PM
I have never voted more than once in a poll. I never have to, we
are always winning. Each candidates grassroots effort has the same
opportunity to vote for their candidate. If we care enough to vote
and there are more of us than any other candidates than it is not
skewed, there are just more Ron Paul supporters on the net than
any other candidate. There is also more of us on the street, and
at events, and on utube, and other venues. I guess there are just
plain more of us then the other candidates. Isn't that what wins
elections. With the array of crooks that we have running for president,
I have not had any trouble converting most of my friends and relatives
to Ron Paul. They may not care enough to go out in our late late late
primaries. But they will vote for him in the general election.

crazyfacedjenkins
12-25-2007, 10:43 PM
SHIT!!! NJ is losing to that asshole, I need to work harder!!!!

erin moore
12-25-2007, 11:05 PM
I am very encouraged by this poll. However, is anyone concerned that people may be bumping his numbers up in the primary states just to get that coverage out?

I am in Kentucky and voted as such. I am just a cautios optimist.

adpierce
12-25-2007, 11:08 PM
we always win these polls, it doesn't say anything anymore. They're not "scientific" and we're a statistical outlier, an anomaly. Or so that's how we're getting treated. Until we win something real like a caucus or primary internet polls (although you should keep voting in em') are of very little relevance. Get out there and knock on doors, internet polls do very little for the campaign.

ashlux
12-25-2007, 11:12 PM
we always win these polls, it doesn't say anything anymore. They're not "scientific" and we're a statistical outlier, an anomaly. Or so that's how we're getting treated. Until we win something real like a caucus or primary internet polls (although you should keep voting in em') are of very little relevance. Get out there and knock on doors, internet polls do very little for the campaign.

Talk about a catch 22.

Anything you can do before a real-life vote gets treated an an anomaly (not even an interesting anomaly). Yet, by the time real-life voting starts, it is too late to get people to take our guy seriously. Bah! :mad:

ProBlue33
12-25-2007, 11:16 PM
Whats up with Wyoming it keeps flipping back to McCain.

bgky4paul
12-25-2007, 11:22 PM
Scott Wilson:


I speak to a lot of people every day here in Tennessee and I know for a fact Ron Paul is not winning here in Tennessee. There are a lot of Fred Thompson supporters and Mike Huckabee supporters.


You speak to a lot of people, huh? So your method of unscientific polling is more accurate that other methods of unscientific polling? ;)

I think it is safe to say that none of knows anything "for a fact" at this point in the game. We can vent and speculate on the boards and we can share anecdotal evidence, but none of that proves a darn thing. The big question for everyone is this: will on-line support translate to votes? In the words of the man himself, "The only way to find out is to have an election."

Scott Wilson
12-26-2007, 03:26 AM
Scott Wilson:




You speak to a lot of people, huh? So your method of unscientific polling is more accurate that other methods of unscientific polling? ;)

I think it is safe to say that none of knows anything "for a fact" at this point in the game. We can vent and speculate on the boards and we can share anecdotal evidence, but none of that proves a darn thing. The big question for everyone is this: will on-line support translate to votes? In the words of the man himself, "The only way to find out is to have an election."

Yes it is unscientific. I speak to 3-4 people each day (my clients) and I will leave Ron Paul literature with all of them. So far I have not had anyone who has been a Ron Paul supporter. I have had plenty of Huckabee and Fred Thompson supporters. Many of these people are voters too.

If Ron Paul was winning Rutherford County statistically I would surely come across more Ron Paul supporters as opposed to Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee.

Many people know that Ron Paul has a dedicated following and they like his domestic policy. They have trouble with Ron's foreign policy and find it naive. That is the average viewpoint I hear every single day.

No way can Ron Paul be winning in my district at the moment. The good news is that we here still have a month before Super Tuesday.

bc2208
12-26-2007, 03:56 AM
Scott Wilson:




You speak to a lot of people, huh? So your method of unscientific polling is more accurate that other methods of unscientific polling? ;)

nice!

voisine
12-26-2007, 04:07 AM
This is encouraging. I think an AOL straw poll is a lot more representative of the average voter than type of polls we normally link to. Not to offend all the wonderful AOL RP supporters, but among us elitist computer nerds, the stereotypical AOL user was a running joke. If someone posted something completely asinine on usenet, it was typical to see it came from an AOL address.

Most of the heavy Internet junkies accused of screwing the polls don't use AOL, and if they were stuck with it by some cruel twist of misfortune, they sure as heck wouldn't be getting their news and participating in straw polls on the AOL website.

I don't think even we've been able to skew a poll with 100k+ votes, let alone have those votes spread so broadly and evenly across the union.

Lois
12-26-2007, 05:04 AM
This poll is not accurate because you can vote multiple times.

Yes, if you speak to ten people, most either they never heard of Ron Paul or they're voting for someone else.

No sense in getting cocky. :rolleyes:

The Plan
12-26-2007, 05:23 AM
Please people, remember when you recruit people to vote and SKEW the poll, it's not an accurate reflection of the general population visiting AOL anymore.

If you want to REALLY gauge Ron Pauls support in these polls, STOP SKEWING and voting - and leave the normal visitors to the site to cast their votes without the influx of people here etc.

It's almost like you want to keep living in a dream world by skewing these polls.

If you want accurate reflections of the general populations support of online polls, stop placing the URLs here and all over the shop. It's just silly and makes the poll irrelevant.

Just like the straw polls. It all means NOTHING.

It might get some nice press and make others think Ron Paul has a chance.. but that's the best you can hope for by doing it.

Pete
Hold on a second there. It's not our fault that nobody feels strongly enough about the other candidates to get out the vote for them. I don't know one person that likes Ron Paul but isn't going to the poll for him in the primaries. Give that talk a rest seriously. This poll is just as accurate as the MSM phone polls and that isn't saying much. If you ask me it's been skewed in the opposite direction. I only voted one time and i hope others did as well. Even if this is skewed it still falls in a positive direction for Dr. Paul. If you ask me we should not ever stop voting for him with every chance we get because every time we put Ron on the top of another poll by turning up to vote unlike the other candidates we might catch some people that will give him a second look. These polls are just as much reality as any other. This is not a bad thing. I'm sick of seeing people poo pooing the online polls. Keep it up people don't let the nay-sayers stop you.

ProBlue33
12-26-2007, 10:41 AM
Even MA has fallen to the Ron Paul Machine, Amazing.

Mitt can only win Utah, not even his home state

mattybear
12-26-2007, 05:11 PM
Well Paul just took Utah and we're gaining in NY and NJ, but McCain took Wyoming. wtf? Was he born there or something?

runningdiz
12-26-2007, 05:40 PM
this poll is not accurate because people are voting multiple times...

Shavenyak
12-26-2007, 06:28 PM
Seriously, though, who spammed Utah? I'm encouraged by this poll, but Utah is just spammage.

freedominnumbers
12-26-2007, 06:40 PM
The question is can you vote multiple times or just access the vote mechanism multiple times.

I read somewhere among the comments on the poll page that the voting system was running a server side 1 vote/IP setup. Resetting cookies only allows you to re-access the vote page, not add to the total number of votes.

ProBlue33
12-26-2007, 06:44 PM
The question is can you vote multiple times or just access the vote mechanism multiple times.

I read somewhere among the comments on the poll page that the voting system was running a server side 1 vote/IP setup. Resetting cookies only allows you to re-access the vote page, not add to the total number of votes.

Yes I tried to do that but not for Ron Paul I voted for Kucinich after I voted for Paul, cleared my cookies and stuff, it allowed my vote but never counted it, they must have an IP tracker inbedded in the code.

austin4paul
12-26-2007, 06:51 PM
this poll is not accurate because people are voting multiple times...

Actually, you're right that the poll is not accurate, but wrong about the reasons. The poll only let's your computer vote ONCE. So, if there's more than one person in your household and only ONE computer, then the other votes in your household can't vote. We also tried deleting cookies so the other RP supporters in our household could vote, but their votes weren't accepted by the poll. So his support could actually be under-represented, not the other way.

KMA-NWO
12-26-2007, 07:39 PM
Actually, you're right that the poll is not accurate, but wrong about the reasons. The poll only let's your computer vote ONCE. So, if there's more than one person in your household and only ONE computer, then the other votes in your household can't vote. We also tried deleting cookies so the other RP supporters in our household could vote, but their votes weren't accepted by the poll. So his support could actually be under-represented, not the other way.

So it /is/ scientific, or at least more like a primary (except the 'choose your state part', should be controlled by geographic location of the IP)...

interesting

Real_CaGeD
12-26-2007, 07:44 PM
Ron will win.

I have seen one candidates bumper sticker in South Georgia other than my own. It was Ron Paul.

Just my two cents.