IOWA and NEW HAMPSHIRE Predictions

[MRoCkEd]

What are your most realistic predictions?

[rodo1776]

predictions. No organization and no understanding of the the rules of delegate voting. Straw poll 13% in Iowa With 2% of the delegates elected. Being organized and having a plan for delegate selection, Straw poll 13% with 10% of the delegates elected. Be organized! Know the rules of the Caucasus and stay after the straw poll to ELECT DELEGATES>!!! This is a total takeover of the republican party that we have to do. Kick their asses!!!

[MRoCkEd]

rephrase that

[OptionsTrader]

Second in both.

[Alex Libman]

I don't care about Iowa, but it's "1st in New Hampshire" or bust!

[MRoCkEd]

think they (msm) will still ignore him if he wins one of them?

[rodo1776]

You don't care about Iowa? Get with the program dude.

[Birdlady]

My predictions factor in the voting fraud that will be taking place.
He would place first in both if it wasn't for that imo.

[peter_lifton]

The real question is "what are the gambling sites saying about Ron's changes?". They were SPOT ON for Dec 16 - the smart money was on a round 6 million.

[Antonius Stone]

think they (msm) will still ignore him if he wins one of them?

even if they do start covering him i dont think we should let that convince us to start watching their crap anymore. No matter what happens in the coming year the MSM needs to be crucified

[RedLightning]

I say third in both.

[bgky4paul]

At Thanksgiving, I made the prediction to family members that RP would be 3rd in Iowa and 1st in NH. One relative, who is an editor for a fairly large newspaper, actually laughed out loud at my wearing a RP t-shirt. He said he didn't know any people who support RP (I told him he was running in the wrong circles ;)). Of course, this is the same city where Rudy's now famous, "Ron Paul supporters are all over the country" statement was made. Only two more weeks until I am vindicated! :D

[MRoCkEd]

I say the same thing and no one believes me

I hope I am wrong... AND HE GETS 1st in Iowa too

[Original_Intent]

Iowa

Huckabee
Romney
Paul

New Hampshire

Paul
McCain
Huckabee

I only think Huck will take 3rd in NH because he will get a bump there from winning Iowa.

If this scenario plays out, I think it will all come down to Paul vs Huckabee, all of the previous "front-runners" will be sideshow attractions.

[MRoCkEd]

Huckabee vs. Paul... please!

[MRoCkEd]

Huckabee vs. Paul... please!

[Pete]

I predicted 1st in Iowa because Iowa's record turnout was 5.3% in 1988, and usually runs about 5%. A Ron Paul turnout of 50% will spam the caucuses and carry the day.

The Iowa win will swing huge numbers of undecideds in NH, giving the win there.

[Lord Xar]

how can you guys actually think he will win in NH? I mean... he is polling less in NH than in Iowa.

[travismofo]

how can you guys actually think he will win in NH? I mean... he is polling less in NH than in Iowa.

Among necons, yes.

Among the liberty loving people of New Hampshire, I doubt it.

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

I picked a pair of 2nds.

I think Romney takes both.. but Ron will take SC, MI, and FL in a 2-point reversal plus back points.

[MRoCkEd]

/\ I'm down with that

[wgadget]

Somebody is running anti-voter fraud commercials in Iowa...I heard them play two times last night on WHO, the radio station in Des Moines. They say they want a fair election for Ron Paul and ALL the candidates. Cool.

[MRoCkEd]

that is good to hear
if this ain't rigged, ron should do great

[brianbb98]

I know I'm around here too much when my guesses are the highest.

[MRoCkEd]

and hopefully they are right, or worse than the actual outcome

[Naraku]

how can you guys actually think he will win in NH? I mean... he is polling less in NH than in Iowa.

He's polling consistently around 8% in New Hampshire. Iowa it's more erratic, but generally sticks closer to 6%. He did get 10% in one poll, though.

Of course, Iowa has fewer voters, but New Hampshire has voters who are more likely to pull for Paul. It's a mixed bag, but I think Paul gets at least third in Iowa and I'm only saying this due to Iowa's history of voting for really strong social conservatives. New Hampshire, on the other hand, has a history of going against the grain and picking someone other than Iowa. I think McCain and Paul have the best chance there.

I think Romney's numbers are totally bunk and he won't do nearly as good as the polls say. He's more like the "I don't really know who I'm voting for right now but I don't want to say that" candidate. Romney's not a real candidate, but a cop-out. Romney voters are probably the most likely to stay home of all of them. Paul polls incredibly well among Independents as well who are a decisive factor. New Hampshire also went for Buchanan in 1996 and McCain in 2000 who were both effectively the anti-establishment candidates of their election period.

[brandon]

The organizer of Hucksarmy, rodo1776, Voted Ron Paul to come in 5th in both Iowa and NH.

Maybe we should write an open letter to Huck supporters asking that they please stop trying to sabatoge our grassroots effort.

[Paulitician]

The organizer of Hucksarmy, rodo1776, Voted Ron Paul to come in 5th in both Iowa and NH.

Maybe we should write an open letter to Huck supporters asking that they please stop trying to sabatoge our grassroots effort.
They're not sabatoging anything if they only voted in an insignificant poll.

Iowa:
Mike Huckabee
Willard Romney
Ron Paul

New Hampshire:
Ron Paul [mainly due to independents]
Willard Romney
John McCain

[brandon]

They're not sabatoging anything if they only voted in an insignificant poll.

Iowa:
Mike Huckabee
Willard Romney
Ron Paul

New Hampshire:
Ron Paul [mainly due to independents]
Willard Romney
John McCain

I was being sarcastic.

[freedom-maniac]

I think 3rd in Iowa, and first in NH.

[jgmaynard]

I was saying six months ago (when Romney had an incredible "lead" in the polls and McCain was given up for dead) that Willard, Paul and McCon would be 1, 2, and 3 here and that the only question is what order? People called me crazy. :)
If people are wondering how that could be that the polls would be so far off of reality in NH, I'd recommend that they get to know NH politics better - I've been involved in it since the days of Governor Reagan (I'm not that old, I just started young :) ). I've seen major candidates here get up to ten times what they were polling just a few days before the election. Some names that come to mind for NH upsets include: Carter, Reagan, Dukakis, Clinton, Buch, McCain, Keough, Kerry, etc. It is the 44% of us Inds that make the difference each time. We have two elections each year, and even for U.S. Congressional races, 48% of us do not make up our minds until 48 hours before the election. :) I've seen what real support looks like in this state even when the polls say otherwise, and Paul's got it. :)

JM

[thisisgiparti]

Third in Iowa and First in New Hampshire. In fact, as poorly as Huckabee shows regarding foreign policy, I would think second in Iowa is even possible.

[MRoCkEd]

second in Iowa would be great, though the much predicted third would also be good

[Abyss19562]

First in Iowa and First in New Hampshire :p

[adpierce]

I'm getting emails from the campaign in Iowa to take note of the precinct totals and to report them to the Iowa Caucus coordinator for the RP campaign. I will.

[rodo1776]

Jgmaynardm, I love ya dude! Live free or die is the best. Go get em and I sure hope you are right.

[jgmaynard]

Thanks. I wrote three LTEs this week to the papers on either side of me and to the Union Liar. :) This is going to be fun - I'm not saying we will win for sure, but it is possible and top three I feel is almost certain.

JM

[MRoCkEd]

Certain? i hope

[jgmaynard]

I didn't say certain, I said "almost certain." If ANYONE says they know for sure what is going to happen in a NH election is lying. :)

JM

[MRoCkEd]

I really hope he doesn't get below third..

[MRoCkEd]

2 more days, place your predictions for iowa