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View Full Version : How many voters we need in Iowa to win!




Cogz
12-25-2007, 10:08 AM
According to latest Iowa Polling which places Dr. Paul at 10%, I created the following estimated number of votes to win vs. other candidates in Iowa. Remember, the lower 2000 voters are people who voted for Bush. All voter gain numbers are based however on the higher 2000 caucus.

Estimated Iowa Republican Caucus yr2004: 11,160
Estimated Iowa Republican Caucus yr2000: 86,000


Paul
10%
2004: 1,116
2000: 8,600
0 change (reference)

Rudy Giuliani
14%
2004: 1,562
2000: 12,040
+3,440

John McCain
17%
1897
14620
+6,020

Romney
21%
2,344
18,060
+9,460

Mike Huckabee
23%
2566
19780
+11,180
_____________________________________
Undecided
8%
892
6,880
_____________________________________
Below Ron Paul


Duncan Hunter
2%
223
1,720
-6,880

Alan Keyes
2%
223
1,720
-6,880

Thompson
3%
335
2,580
-6,020
_____________________________________
Sources:

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iarep8-715.html
http://elections.gmu.edu/Voter_Turnout_2004_Primaries.htm

Ron2Win
12-25-2007, 10:12 AM
In 2004 Iowa had a 6% turnout only for the primaries

Cogz
12-25-2007, 10:13 AM
Right, but that was 6.8% of all Iowa registered voters. (per the site I referenced).

I am not saying this is scientific in the least - my point is to show how FEW votes we need to turn in order to win or place high.

FreedomLover
12-25-2007, 10:14 AM
Yeah this is backwards, 2004 was the year bush ran unopposed, so there was no reason to go caucus for him (except the party leaders and die-hards)

saahmed
12-25-2007, 10:19 AM
You have the years mixed around. I was very confused for a minute. There was a much lower turnout in 2004 because Bush was unopposed.

MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2
12-25-2007, 10:22 AM
You have the years mixed around. I was very confused for a minute. There was a much lower turnout in 2004 because Bush was unopposed.

I think those are also the people they are currently polling. 10% of that crowd sounds pretty good to me.

Cogz
12-25-2007, 10:26 AM
Ok, so my data is completely fubar then. I thought it looked funny that more people turned out in 2004...

Still, I don't think we need to pick up THAT many votes to really surprise people.

saahmed
12-25-2007, 10:38 AM
Ok, so my data is completely fubar then. I thought it looked funny that more people turned out in 2004...

Still, I don't think we need to pick up THAT many votes to really surprise people.


Your analysis makes sense, you just need to switch around the years. The data has the correct years, you just mislabeled them. Those numbers are the total numbers of caucus-goers in those years. Anyway, I think we will pick up a lot of votes in the days up to the caucus. We have around 250 students coming in to help out, we have grassroots ads on the air, hopefully the campaign will be airing some TV ads, and the infomercials just aired over the weekend. These numbers might also give some of those people who wouldn't support him because they believe he can't win, some evidence that it is possible. We should also be getting a lot of Independent and Democrat votes. I know my parents will be switching parties at the caucus.

Cogz
12-25-2007, 10:45 AM
Isn't it interesting though, that at least according to these very un-scientific numbers - it takes only three thousand votes to move up from 5th, to 4th, to 3rd, a little bit more than 3k for 2nd, and less than 2k to pick up first.

Makes each little step that much more worth it, and makes the next plateau so much more achievable.

FreedomLover
12-25-2007, 01:12 PM
According to wikipedia, ron paul got 1,300 votes in the straw poll. And according to cnn, Bush got a little over 35,000 votes in the caucus, or 41% of the vote, in 2000.

To make it easy, and taking into account a parrallel dem primary, the tarneshed GOP brand, A closer and uncertain race, and imclement weather, I'm going to assume that the number of voters, 86,000+, is around the same this year.

Recent polling shows Huckabee and Romney are in the same position as Bush and Forbes were back in 2000. Huckabee holds a slight lead and will probably win but with a lower percentage...perhaps around 32%, or around 27,000 voters across Iowa. Romney will come in second with around 28% of the vote.

After the Romney-Huckabee show, we have Giuliani, McCain, Thompson, and Paul.

Giuliani is not competitive in Iowa, but still has the aura of "frontrunner" around him, due to the constant MSM lovefest that lasted most of this year. It has dissipated and he's falling apart now, but I still expect him to get around 5%

McCain is not competitive, but will nonetheless gets some votes, I'll peg him at around 6%, slightly better than in 2000.

Thompson...he's abandoned NH and moved to Iowa to try and shore up his support, which has been falling dramatically. His last minute charge into the hawkeye state will be enough to get him double digits, but I suspect his supporters are just about as passionate for Thompson winning as Thompson himself. My guess is 11%.

Adding 2% for Hunter/rounding and we come to our Great Unknown, Ron Paul.

RP has been playing ads in Iowa, his numbers are going up, and his supporters are second to none in loyalty and GOTV efforts.

My guess for RP?

16%. And third place to go along with it.