Paul Campaign Strategy - Genius?

[AgentPaul001]

Is anyone else getting the feeling that the campaign's strategy right now is genius? I was pondering how in the world 3rd Place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire could possibly benefit us when those are both states that are fairly receptive to Paul's message (NH more so then perhaps any other state).

However once you do some basic math you realize that the campaigns strategy of performing "pretty well" for the first several primaries is Genius because when Super Tuesday rolls around only Paul & Guliani will have cash to campaign at a national level (Romney has loads of dough, but has spent most on early states.).

Guliani's campaign is tanking nationwide. Huckabee's campaign is being hammered and his brief spurt seems over (if he doesn't win Iowa he's basically out). Romney needs to take both Iowa and New Hampshire, if not he's done with. McCain needs a decent showing in Iowa and a win in New Hampshire.

Thompson's strategy seems to be, just don't be any worse then the other candidates and hope that all the early states split.

My realistic scenario involves Huckabee dropping out when he doesn't win Iowa. His campaign peters out after New Hampshire. He won't make it to Super Tuesday. I think he will try throwing his support behind McCain (they have similar viewpoints, prolife) in hopes of maybe getting a VP Spot or at the very least so he can keep some evangelical support.

I think Romney/McCain/Guliani/Thompson/Paul will all stay in until Super Tuesday. Hunter might stick around simply to see what happens.

Hopefully the campaign can pump several million into advertising nationwide to help spread the campaign's message and see what we can do :)

[IHaveaDream]

I don't remember where I read or heard this, but apparently there is a common belief that a win in the first primary is worth about 40 million dollars worth of media airtime, endorsements, etc. So even a candidate who is virtually broke at this point, could easily rebound by taking the top spot in the Iowa caucus.

[Myerz]

Well then............ Ron Paul better win this thing!

[Paulite5112007]

I think only Ron Paul, Guiliani and Romney will hang around if they don't win any early primaries. So, if Huckabee wins Iowa or McCain wins N.H. - they will hang around until Super Tuesday. I don't see Thompson in the race after Iowa...at most he will stay until S.C. picks Ron Paul.

[Shavenyak]

Somehow I have a feeling everything is falling into place. A "perfect storm" of american political change if you will.

[literatim]

Ron Paul will win first in both NH and IA. I was expecting double digits after Christmas, it came before.

[AtomiC]

Somehow I have a feeling everything is falling into place. A "perfect storm" of american political change if you will.

That's what I've been saying.

This is the perfect time for Ron Paul to run for office and everything is definitely falling in place for a sweep.

[RonPaulVolunteer]

Somehow I have a feeling everything is falling into place. A "perfect storm" of american political change if you will.

That's what I'm feeling...

We still have 10 days until Iowa... A lot can happen in 10 days....

.

[Yom]

McCain is still a threat, I think. The more candidates that stay in past Super Tuesday, the better, since they'll divide their votes between them, whereas there are few people (John McCain being one of them, to a degree) who can actually take votes from Dr. Paul.

[skeet]

A real trick in any election is peaking at the right time. I think we will do that in Iowa and it looks like possibly NH as well.

[Adamsa]

The problem is when candidates drop out, who will they support? It won't be Ron. Thats why you need a strong showing in the first four states.

[AgentPaul001]

McCain is definitely taking some support from Paul, but I'd prefer Guliani/Romney stay in this to help split as much of the vote as possible.

I'm doubftful that the establishment will come behind any of the Candidates since McCain comes the closest, but Immigration will be his death knell.

[justatrey]

Ron Paul will win first in both NH and IA. I was expecting double digits after Christmas, it came before.

Please please someone tell me that this belief holds some merit.

I thought we were realistically hoping for third place in each state? I also heard that this was the goal of the official campaign and that first place in either was *realistically* almost impossible.

[cien750hp]

AND don't forget that secret campaign strategy that the people who have heard it say is genius, that is to debut sometime after new hampshire i believe.
Ron Paul is not a stupid man, i believe everything he is doing is for a reason. This man is a master at everything.

[all J's in IL for RP]

I don't see Guiliani sticking around that long. His strategy of ignoring the early states was flawed and the other states are suffering Rudy fatigue. By the time those roll around, he's going to be seen as a very week candidate, especially as his number slide in Florida. It's us, Mitt and the Huckster.

[Jaykzo]

Somehow I have a feeling everything is falling into place. A "perfect storm" of american political change if you will.

I've used that phrase as well to describe the Paul campaign.

Lets not forget that the percentage of voters is pretty low in the later caucuses. After the hype of Iowa, New Hampshire, etc., less attention is put on individual states. Those states will have low turnouts, as always, and can easily be swung in Paul's favor by our supporters who will postpone their wedding dates just to vote.

[bucfish]

Merry Christmas Everyone and keep up the good work!!!

All I want for Christmas is a clean sweep!!!

[bobmurph]

The dominoes are all lined up for a Ron Paul nomination.

http://o.aolcdn.com/dims/PGMC/1/294/-/100/http://wppd-images.web.aol.com/music_gallery/i/i/ice_cube/02-ice-cube-171007.jpg

..."Domino motha-f***a!"

[Paulitician]

Could be genius or it could fall straight on its face. I'm not too sure the situation on the ground over there at Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina, so who knows...

[AgentPaul001]

3rd in Iowa and 3rd in New Hampshire is a success.

1st or 2nd in either state would be an incredible boost to the campaign and we are shooting for that. But 3rd is far from poor in either state.

[acroso]

That's dumb- he should spend as much as possible in the first 3.

[Lord Xar]

I don't remember where I read or heard this, but apparently there is a common belief that a win in the first primary is worth about 40 million dollars worth of media airtime, endorsements, etc. So even a candidate who is virtually broke at this point, could easily rebound by taking the top spot in the Iowa caucus.

NH (primary) comes after iowa (caucus)? - so I am confused.

[Paulitician]

Yes, the Iowa caucas is 5 days before the NH primary.

[mconder]

A real trick in any election is peaking at the right time. I think we will do that in Iowa and it looks like possibly NH as well.

They (MSM) are in full blown attack mode now. I am really worried how this will play into it. I know a lot of people who trust the MSM more than their family, friends, or ecclesiastical authority. If the MSN says Ron is a kook, then to these people that's what he is.

[IHaveaDream]

NH (primary) comes after iowa (caucus)? - so I am confused.

The Iowa caucus supposedly serves as a "barometer" of the electorate. As a heartland state, it's considered a peek at the mainstream sentiment. Winning or losing these things doesn't give any candidate a guarantee of winning the presidency, but it definately provides them with a lot more notoriety and press coverage.

As a resident of SC--an early primary state--I'm a little miffed that I still haven't seen a single TV ad for Ron Paul here, and I've only received one mailer. The radio ads and the efforts of grassroots supporters are the only avenues of promotion currently being employed here as far as I know. :mad:

[Paulitician]

Isn't Ron Paul neglecting (relatively speaking) Michigan too? :(