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View Full Version : Paul moves up to double digits in new Iowa ARG Poll:




Micahyah
12-24-2007, 01:05 PM
http://americanresearchgroup.com/

IOWA
Republicans Dec 16-19 Dec 20-23

Giuliani 13% 14%
Huckabee 28% 23%
Hunter - 2%
Keyes 1% 2%
McCain 20% 17%
Paul 4% 10%
Romney 17% 21%
Tancredo 1% ni
Thompson 5% 3%
Undecided 11% 8%

jake
12-24-2007, 01:06 PM
the tipping point

Matthew Zak
12-24-2007, 01:06 PM
That's a 250% increase. Not too shabby.

rachmiel
12-24-2007, 01:06 PM
We should try to spread the word to the media about this nascent "Ron Paul Surge" we have in Iowa.

SovereignMN
12-24-2007, 01:08 PM
Thompson is only 1 point above Keyes and Hunter? Wowsers.

I'll repeat the prediction I made BEFORE Buchanan did it last week.

Thompson will drop out after Iowa and endorse McCain in hopes that it will allow the grumpy old man to take NH or SC. It won't work.

Rudy will be out after he loses Florida.

By Super Tuesday it'll be a 3 man race between Paul, Huckabee and Romney.

pikerz
12-24-2007, 01:08 PM
ignore the media, spread the word to voters, lol.

media will work against us.

voytechs
12-24-2007, 01:09 PM
ARG is the poll is the one that always low balls polls numbers. He's always the lowest in that poll. So this is awesome!

Liberty Star
12-24-2007, 01:09 PM
These polls undercount total support for Ron Paul among all political streams, but good still.

Incrimsonias
12-24-2007, 01:09 PM
Go Infomercials!!

HazardPerry
12-24-2007, 01:10 PM
Rock on, but don't let up!

Ozwest
12-24-2007, 01:10 PM
yes!!!

rachmiel
12-24-2007, 01:10 PM
ignore the media, spread the word to voters, lol.

media will work against us.

I disagree. The media likes trends, being the first to announce them or being part of them. They're always looking for a new story, and there's very little time they'd have to come up with a smear story before Jan 3rd. Sure, they're a bunch of sharks, but don't write the media off completely when it could be a useful tool for us.

ronpaulitician
12-24-2007, 01:12 PM
If we can maintain double digits in Iowa just before the caucuses, we'll be in a really good position to do well in Iowa, because I think it'll convince a lot of doubters to give Paul a shot.

InRonWeTrust
12-24-2007, 01:13 PM
Ron on the move!

Liberty Star
12-24-2007, 01:14 PM
Go Ron Paul.

skinzterpswizfan
12-24-2007, 01:15 PM
Holy crap, that is a huge jump in such a little time.

rory096
12-24-2007, 01:16 PM
Whoa whoa whoa whoa. Do you guys realize the significance of this being ARG? ARG is probably the polling firm which is THE most biased against Paul. You need only look at past polls on RealClearPolitics to confirm this; ARG is always several points lower for Paul than all the polls around it.

Dorfsmith
12-24-2007, 01:17 PM
I'm speechless :eek::):cool::):cool::):cool:

rachmiel
12-24-2007, 01:17 PM
If we can maintain double digits in Iowa just before the caucuses, we'll be in a really good position to do well in Iowa, because I think it'll convince a lot of doubters to give Paul a shot.

I think we can gain another 5 % points over the next week. Combine that with favorable turnout from our camp, and maybe some lousy weather on the 3rd, and can you say FIRST IN IOWA???

Ozwest
12-24-2007, 01:18 PM
Can't wait for the New Hampshire numbers.

jesshwarren
12-24-2007, 01:19 PM
wow!!!!!!! We can win "yell" YES!!!!!!! Look at Hucksters #'s Yes sir we are gona do it.

trey4sports
12-24-2007, 01:21 PM
I think we can gain another 5 % points over the next week. Combine that with favorable turnout from our camp, and maybe some lousy weather on the 3rd, and can you say FIRST IN IOWA???


i hate to rain on your parade but...........



you forgot to mention the majorty of our base isnt even being polled!! :D

derekjohnson
12-24-2007, 01:22 PM
can anyone say letter writing cmpaign

tmg19103
12-24-2007, 01:22 PM
This has happened in past elections in Iowa where the dark horse wins. The front runners attack each other and it turns off Iowans, so they go for a dark horse who has not been involved in attack ads.

While Huck has not had attack ads, Romney's attack ads have exposed him. Iowans are now turned off to Huck and Romney.

Not saying RP will win Iowa, but you never know. I think third is a sure thing and second is a decent possibility and you never know about 1st, just as you never know about 4th.

It is really all conjecture at this point, but 4% to 10% in one week bodes very well. I hope the campaign has an infomercial geared towards N.H. We gave them enough money.

You gotta think this infomercial played a big role in this. What other explanation is there for such a jump in one week when the infomerical just came out?

AgentPaul001
12-24-2007, 01:24 PM
........why such a large jump over just a 4-day span? Perhaps the infomericals had an impact? This polling is incredibly recent up to the 23rd.

As stated ARG has had Paul at the lowest numbers of ANY candidate for the most part (even lower then AP-IPSOS).

On RealClearPolitics we should see a big jump in our moving average since ARG was the lowest at 4 and now its moving up to 10 :)

literatim
12-24-2007, 01:25 PM
ARG is always our worst poll. I have no idea how they poll, but it is always slanted against us.

rory096
12-24-2007, 01:25 PM
Guys, remember that this is just one poll. It could just be a fluke like the Rasmussen national poll a few weeks ago that put us at 8%; we need to wait until other polls confirm this before we get too excited.

That said, go out and convince some people to vote for Paul to get those numbers even higher!

stefans
12-24-2007, 01:26 PM
........why such a large jump over just a 4-day span? Perhaps the infomericals had an impact? This polling is incredibly recent up to the 23rd.


don't try to understand polling numbers, they're useless in that regard :)
use them to campaign. double-digits!

skinzterpswizfan
12-24-2007, 01:26 PM
If the infomercial did have an impact, that is very good because it was put out during the second half of the time period they were polling so that means potentially we will have even higher numbers next polling period.

rachmiel
12-24-2007, 01:26 PM
I wonder how many cents Stephanopoulos has got in his pocket right now...

Sorry, guess that sounds bad... I'd be sweating if I were him!

Pimpin Turtle Dot Com
12-24-2007, 01:27 PM
Hell yes! 250% increase!

Ozwest
12-24-2007, 01:28 PM
........why such a large jump over just a 4-day span? Perhaps the infomericals had an impact? This polling is incredibly recent up to the 23rd.

As stated ARG has had Paul at the lowest numbers of ANY candidate for the most part (even lower then AP-IPSOS).

On RealClearPolitics we should see a big jump in our moving average since ARG was the lowest at 4 and now its moving up to 10 :)
Just a guess, but they've been fixing the numbers hoping we'd drop.

Now that it's crunch time, they've got to try and regain some cred.

Pure speculation.

RP4Pres2008
12-24-2007, 01:30 PM
Guys, remember that this is just one poll. It could just be a fluke like the Rasmussen national poll a few weeks ago that put us at 8%; we need to wait until other polls confirm this before we get too excited.

That said, go out and convince some people to vote for Paul to get those numbers even higher!

We don't wait for anything in this campaign! :mad:

The polls are bust...why wait for more bust polls?

GET OUT THERE!

Alabama Supporter
12-24-2007, 01:32 PM
Don't trust any of these polls, even the ones in our favor.

bucfish
12-24-2007, 01:34 PM
Let's turn our attention away from the MSM and put a halt to the bombard of emails, letters and phonecalls to them. Let's focus on local media and canvassing with brochures and dvd's.

In any event LET's go Local!!!

and have a week of silence to the MSM!!!

Dorfsmith
12-24-2007, 01:37 PM
Let's turn our attention away from the MSM and put a halt to the bombard of emails, letters and phonecalls to them. Let's focus on local media and canvassing with brochures and dvd's.

In any event LET's go Local!!!

and have a week of silence to the MSM!!!

This has always been my strategy. I've never sent a letter to the MSM but I did send 450 to Iowa independents.

Ozwest
12-24-2007, 01:39 PM
As soon as I saw ARG poll, I rolled my eyes cause they have always been consistently low for Ron Paul.

As others have previously stated, an increase in this poll should definitely not be underestimated!

Ozwest
12-24-2007, 01:40 PM
Let's turn our attention away from the MSM and put a halt to the bombard of emails, letters and phonecalls to them. Let's focus on local media and canvassing with brochures and dvd's.

In any event LET's go Local!!!

and have a week of silence to the MSM!!!

No way buddy.

Shout it loud and clear!

RockEnds
12-24-2007, 01:43 PM
10 percent from ARG?!?!?!

:D

mavtek
12-24-2007, 01:45 PM
Actually if you read the caption below the graph it says Paul is 11% :)

Dorfsmith
12-24-2007, 01:47 PM
Actually if you read the caption below the graph it says Paul is 11% :)

I missed that the first time! Amazing :D

Ozwest
12-24-2007, 01:48 PM
Actually if you read the caption below the graph it says Paul is 11% :)
Chicken in the pot!

ronpaulitician
12-24-2007, 01:50 PM
Actually if you read the caption below the graph it says Paul is 11% :)
11% among men.

rory096
12-24-2007, 01:52 PM
Holy crap! Paul has 26% support among independents!

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iarep8-715.html

ItsTime
12-24-2007, 01:54 PM
This is why the MSM has really toned down their "who will the indies go for" BS they usually use to try to bump McCains numbers. Paul is second in New Hampshire among indies as well well ahead of 3rd place.

The good news keeps rolling in.


Holy crap! Paul has 26% support among independents!

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iarep8-715.html

stefans
12-24-2007, 01:56 PM
Holy crap! Paul has 26% support among independents!

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iarep8-715.html

...independents who plan to vote in the republican primary.
that's a huge difference to independents overall, but still amazing.

DRV45N05
12-24-2007, 01:57 PM
As I said earlier, while I'm encouraged by the progress of Dr. Paul, and I think that this poll is starting to get his level of support on the Republican side right, I'm skeptical of the poll in general. There is no way that Thompson is only at 3% in Iowa while McCain is at 17% and Giuliani is at 14%; none.

However, it is interesting to note how far Paul and Romney climbed in this one compared to how far Huckabee and McCain fell.

And as I said, ARG does not have a very good reputation.

Ozwest
12-24-2007, 01:57 PM
I'm reckoning, we might crack double digits in New Hampshire next.

Some of the "political pundits" are going to be eating a big old plate of Crow!

rory096
12-24-2007, 01:59 PM
...independents who plan to vote in the republican primary.
that's a huge difference to independents overall, but still amazing.
Those are the only independents we care about ;)

Karsten
12-24-2007, 02:00 PM
i hate to rain on your parade but...........



you forgot to mention the majorty of our base isnt even being polled!! :D

I hope it snows on our parade.

Then only highly motivated Ron Paul supporters will show up to vote in Iowa!:D

Mental Dribble
12-24-2007, 02:26 PM
Pollster Dates N/Pop Giuliani Huckabee McCain Paul Romney Thompson
ARG 12/20-23/07 600 LV 14 23 17 10 21 3
ARG 12/16-19/07 600 LV 13 28 20 4 17 5

thats ver ystrange, the date range is just a few days off... they turned around a did another poll just 1 day after they last and he jumps 6 % points? Hmmmm

constitutional
12-24-2007, 02:28 PM
We can nail this. RP is the only anti-war candidate.

justatrey
12-24-2007, 02:30 PM
^^^^

wfd40
12-24-2007, 02:51 PM
how does mcCain still have 17%?? The guy doesn't even Campaign in Iowa..

I've said it before, and I'll say it again.. mcCain has me spooked big time... In other words, Romney and Huckatard worry me not.

Someone please give me something to bite into regarding McCain's hopeful downfall..

Ozwest
12-24-2007, 02:51 PM
We can nail this. RP is the only anti-war candidate.
I know the polls are bullshit, and our true figures are higher than the we've been told, but everything is relative.

The perception of undecided voters who dismiss Ron Paul due to single digit numbers is now in question.

The over-used term "perfect storm" may be often repeated from here on out!

rory096
12-24-2007, 02:52 PM
how does mcCain still have 17%?? The guy doesn't even Campaign in Iowa..

I've said it before, and I'll say it again.. mcCain has me spooked big time... In other words, Romney and Huckatard worry me not.

Someone please give me something to bite into regarding McCain's hopeful downfall..
McCain is surging in polls according to the media, actually.

skinzterpswizfan
12-24-2007, 02:55 PM
how does mcCain still have 17%?? The guy doesn't even Campaign in Iowa..

I've said it before, and I'll say it again.. mcCain has me spooked big time... In other words, Romney and Huckatard worry me not.

Someone please give me something to bite into regarding McCain's hopeful downfall..

He was at 20% in their polling the 3 days before this one. He's starting to drop after getting a huge bump because of endorsements.

Ozwest
12-24-2007, 02:57 PM
McCain is surging in polls according to the media, actually.
So much the better. Instead of the neo-con vote being divided between Romney and Huckabee, add another ingredient.

Hate to say it, but looks like a "perfect storm" to me.

RPinSEAZ
12-24-2007, 02:58 PM
We don't need Ron Paul to be polling high, we just need the supporters of the other candidates to not care enough to vote.

ronpaulyourmom
12-24-2007, 03:01 PM
McCain is likely to continue going up in most states, not down. A lot of Rudy supporters are jumping ship. I have a feeling that we're going to be in a three way race here between Romney, McCain, and Paul.

Adamsa
12-24-2007, 03:06 PM
McCain is likely to continue going up in most states, not down. A lot of Rudy supporters are jumping ship. I have a feeling that we're going to be in a three way race here between Romney, McCain, and Paul.

No, I think McCain is going to suffer when he does terrible in Iowa, it'll hurt his NH chances, and if he fails there, he fails everywhere.

Mister Grieves
12-24-2007, 03:08 PM
There is absolutely no reason to believe that McCain will do any better than he did in 2000.

He is even less liked now. Only the media has a strange obsession with him for some reason.

chiplitfam
12-24-2007, 03:10 PM
These polls are conducted from old time republicans. They are not reflective of the grassroot support. Don't rely on them or worry about them. Just keep talking to every human being you come in contact with. When you shop, get gas, at stop lights, at work, at school, at home, your neighbors, the mailman, whoever!!!

rory096
12-24-2007, 03:11 PM
No, I think McCain is going to suffer when he does terrible in Iowa, it'll hurt his NH chances, and if he fails there, he fails everywhere.
That's assuming he'll do terribly in Iowa.

evadmurd
12-24-2007, 03:14 PM
ignore the media, spread the word to voters, lol.
media will work against us.

Why are these polls better than the others when he was lower? I thought the polls were no good. We can't grab on to something and hail it when it is good news and trash it when it doesn't suit our fancy.

"The media sucks, unless they agree with me."

Ozwest
12-24-2007, 03:18 PM
Why are these polls better than the others when he was lower? I thought the polls were no good. We can't grab on to something and hail it when it is good news and trash it when it doesn't suit our fancy.

"The media sucks, unless they agree with me."
What we're hoping is that it's all "relative."

Quantumystic
12-24-2007, 03:29 PM
how does mcCain still have 17%?? The guy doesn't even Campaign in Iowa..

I've said it before, and I'll say it again.. mcCain has me spooked big time... In other words, Romney and Huckatard worry me not.

Someone please give me something to bite into regarding McCain's hopeful downfall..

McCain's greatest weakness in the GOP is his previous stand supporting the Amnesty bill earlier this year. It's going to be the #2 issue for conservatives in this election.

In all likelihood, it'll be Thompson hoping to save his campaign that launches the attack ads against the candidates that are "soft on illegal immigration, and support Amnesty". It's really the only weapon Thompson has against the other guys, painting them as weak on national security of our borders by being Pro-Amnesty or Pro-Sanctuary Cities.

Which of course, works FOR Ron Paul.

Not to mention that if this latest trend continues in the polls, by January 3rd RP would be "officially" in 2nd in Iowa... about 7% behind Romney.

FreedomLover
12-24-2007, 03:45 PM
That's assuming he'll do terribly in Iowa.

Well, you guys have to remember that this was McCain's strategy in 2000. He didn't compete in ames or really in iowa as a whole, and he finished 2nd or 3rd to last in Iowa.

He ended up winning New Hampshire, and a handful of other states. But Bush was the establishment favorite, so he won big.

Iowa is not important to him. However, if he comes in third or worse in NH, then he might bow out and throw his support to Thompson. However, if Thompson does badly in Iowa (he recently moved there) then he will get out before NH and throw his support to McCain.

Huckabee will be in no matter if he's 1st or 3rd in Iowa. He's staying through the end to try and pick up some delegates in the south.

Romney's in til the end.

Guiliani is in til the end, he's too arrogant and self-serving to not do so.

Either way, I don't see McCain or Thompson surviving to february 5th. I could be wrong of course

Alex Libman
12-24-2007, 04:06 PM
Go Infomercials!!

I thought they only aired just last night? If that's the case, this poll probably didn't capture their effect yet!

wfd40
12-24-2007, 04:22 PM
McCain is likely to continue going up in most states, not down. A lot of Rudy supporters are jumping ship. I have a feeling that we're going to be in a three way race here between Romney, McCain, and Paul.

This is what I worry about... everyone on hear keeps talking about how Romney, Huck, Gool and McCain will split up the pro-war vote... but what if the utter incompetence of 3/4 leads those all into the McCain tent??

Not good to have a clear winner amongst the pro-war-ers right?

ugh -

Micahyah
12-24-2007, 04:32 PM
This is what I worry about... everyone on hear keeps talking about how Romney, Huck, Gool and McCain will split up the pro-war vote... but what if the utter incompetence of 3/4 leads those all into the McCain tent??

Not good to have a clear winner amongst the pro-war-ers right?

ugh -

I don't think that McCain is so strong that the others are ready to drop out and get behind him after 1 or 2 contests. There's not much reason for Huckabee to drop out until after Super Tuesday, because he has evengelical support. Giuliani's Florida strategy may not work, but he has no reason not to stay in and see what happens in the super tuesday states, where he has big leads over McCain. Thompson could drop out and endorse McCain after a poor showing in Iowa, but he may try to hang in there and see what SC looks like. Romney is the only one who would have basically no reason to be in the race after the first 2 contests if he doesn't win after pouring all that money into Iowa and NH. So I think it's still likely to at least have Huckabee, McCain, and Giuliani still splitting the pro-war vote going into Super Tuesday.

Paulitician
12-24-2007, 04:34 PM
Holy crap! Is Fred really that low in the polls? No way. I thought he would pose much more of a threat for 3rd place but that seems to be McCain and Giuliani now. I hope grassroots there pulls it off :(

FreedomLover
12-24-2007, 04:43 PM
Also, it's great to see RP in double digits in Iowa finally, but ARG is probably one of the worst national polling organizations. I wouldn't trust them at all unless other pollsters see a trend as well.

DXDoug
12-24-2007, 05:19 PM
Woot! dd lets keep it up few days left!