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View Full Version : I just noticed something fascinating about the aol poll!!!!




bgky4paul
12-24-2007, 02:13 AM
h ttp://news.aol.com/political-machine/2007/12/21/straw-poll-dec-21-jan-4/


I was browsing the state by state totals on this poll and something intriguing jumped out at me. The votes match polling data from the early primary states almost perfectly. Except for the numbers for Dr. Paul.

For example, Iowa shows Romney and Hucabee battling each other, and then a three-way tie between Rudy, McCain and Thompson. The only anomoly is Dr. Paul. He is soaring above the rest. Same thing with NH. It shows Romney edging out McCain with everyone else way down. Again, our man is flying high. This is actual evidence that shows what we have been saying all along. The support is there! The polls are just not picking us up!

:D:D:D:D:D:D

Paulite5112007
12-24-2007, 02:20 AM
Just realize that if only 1 in 10 Ron Paul supporters vote in that poll then its close to 1 in 30 of other supporters (I would say 1 in 20 for Huckabee).

Like the phone polling is biased against Ron Pauls numbers, these are severly biased for them.

TheNewYorker
12-24-2007, 02:27 AM
By all means expect Ron Paul to have a strong showing in both Iowa and NH, possible a win or close to it in NH, however remember, traditionally the guy that is elected never wins those states any way.

ThomasJ
12-24-2007, 02:28 AM
Just realize that if 1/10 Ron Paul supporters show up at the Primaries vs 1/30 for the rest then this should still be accurate.

I have posited that we will have a higher turn-out for primaries than any other candidate so if anything we will match those numbers on that poll if not exceed it.

rory096
12-24-2007, 02:28 AM
By all means expect Ron Paul to have a strong showing in both Iowa and NH, possible a win or close to it in NH, however remember, traditionally the guy that is elected never wins those states any way.
That's not really true.

deltabourne
12-24-2007, 02:29 AM
Ron Paul will win every state as well as Guam, Puerto Rico, and some provinces in Canada.

AtomiC
12-24-2007, 02:29 AM
...

Antonius Stone
12-24-2007, 02:32 AM
Ron Paul will win every state as well as Guam, Puerto Rico, and some provinces in Canada.

Ron Paul is going to win the Bombay Caucuses AND the Marseilles Primaries, you mark my words...

nist7
12-24-2007, 02:38 AM
By all means expect Ron Paul to have a strong showing in both Iowa and NH, possible a win or close to it in NH, however remember, traditionally the guy that is elected never wins those states any way.

Winning IA or NH does not neccessarily mean a GOP nomination. However:

6 out of 8 GOP nominees won NH in the last 8 presidential election cycles.

And 11 out of 14 GOP nominees won IA in the last 14 presidential election cycles.


Ron Paul will win every state as well as Guam, Puerto Rico, and some provinces in Canada.

:D:D:D:D:D

That would an awesome Ron Paul fact.....like those Chuck Norris facts that detail the impossible.

Arek
12-24-2007, 03:00 AM
South Carolina is very important. I don't have statistics in front of me right now, but I'm pretty sure I remember seeing somewhere that whoever wins South Carolina usually wins the nomination as the Republican candidate. SC also happens to be a state we're in double digits in and guess what when the MSM showed the SC poll yesterday they excluded RP (they included him in every early state he was in single digits in). So the MSM didn't want to show Paul is doing well in SC.

Paulite5112007
12-24-2007, 03:35 AM
Just realize that if 1/10 Ron Paul supporters show up at the Primaries vs 1/30 for the rest then this should still be accurate.

I have posited that we will have a higher turn-out for primaries than any other candidate so if anything we will match those numbers on that poll if not exceed it.

I agree we will have the highest turnout and hopefully pull enough delgates at the convention to win.

However, you missed the point. Ron Paul voters are more inclined to vote in these online polls than any other Republican candidates voters - the results will be skewed. If you believe the phone polls miss a lot of Ron Paul's support why do you not believe that an online poll will not miss Romney support?

A straw poll taken on the internet has as much credibility as a straw poll taken in a Utah Mormon church.

daviddee
12-24-2007, 03:38 AM
I agree we will have the highest turnout and hopefully pull enough delgates at the convention to win.

However, you missed the point. Ron Paul voters are more inclined to vote in these online polls than any other Republican candidates voters - the results will be skewed. If you believe the phone polls miss a lot of Ron Paul's support why do you not believe that an online poll will not miss Romney support?

A straw poll taken on the internet has as much credibility as a straw poll taken in a Utah Mormon church.

Have you looked at the AOL poll results?

Romney has Utah and Mass (as expected)
Ghoul has the Tri-State
Ron has the rest.

akforme
12-24-2007, 03:39 AM
One thing I noticed, more canidates are better for Ron. Sad but true so if we don't have a good movement by the time the race really starts to narrow down it's going to get tough.

akforme
12-24-2007, 03:42 AM
However, you missed the point. Ron Paul voters are more inclined to vote in these online polls than any other Republican candidates voters - the results will be skewed. If you believe the phone polls miss a lot of Ron Paul's support why do you not believe that an online poll will not miss Romney support?

Ron Paul supporters are more likely to come out and vote too. I think that's the real unknown in the polls.

Paulitician
12-24-2007, 03:49 AM
Good news is that we're winning online polls... bad news is that we don't know if that will actually turn out votes come primaries. If we can have rallies with 5,000 people turning out in one single location, it shouldn't be that hard to get people to vote in the primaries, should it? Considering how huge our rallies are, I'm stunned we only got 1k to Ames. A lot has changed since then but that was our chance to prove ourselves to the establishment and to the brain-dead masses but we failed. I hope that's not the case for the caucuses and primaries, as it will be our absolute last chance.

OferNave
12-24-2007, 04:13 AM
South Carolina is very important. I don't have statistics in front of me right now, but I'm pretty sure I remember seeing somewhere that whoever wins South Carolina usually wins the nomination as the Republican candidate. SC also happens to be a state we're in double digits in and guess what when the MSM showed the SC poll yesterday they excluded RP (they included him in every early state he was in single digits in). So the MSM didn't want to show Paul is doing well in SC.

Well, good news then. The blimp is going to be all over SC from now till the primary. :)

Gr8Dalmuti
12-24-2007, 05:23 AM
If Ron does well in the current large field of candidates, he will garner more support from those who want to vote for a winner. I think this will counter the vote consolidation effect of neocons dropping out of the race.

terryhamel
12-24-2007, 07:33 AM
The doc will do great if we all understand and show up for our respective caucuses or primaries. There's several forum threads regarding this.

The AOL straw poll, however, is a sham and not to be trusted. If you delete cookies from aol.com, you can vote again. It's completely unreliable.

fireworks_god
12-24-2007, 07:52 AM
Then why does it follow all of the same trends as the media reports, beyond the exception, Ron Paul? Are people spamming it? That's the accusation anyways... Either he's got a wellspring of support that isn't being presented in the media, or we're spamming...