A way to gauge RP's real support and chances of winning...

[Jerome]

I just had a random idea that could potentially give us more data to accurately assess Ron's support and chances in the primaries.

I'm curious if there is any historical data say from 04 that might show any correlation of local straw polls in each state to primary voting. I'm not sure how much info is floating around regarding straw poll figures from 3 years ago, but if the info is there it could be a decent barometer for us.

Any thoughts?

[N13]

You would have to go back to 2000 for a better guide.

[Jerome]

You would have to go back to 2000 for a better guide.

Not necessarily - we could look at the correletation of Dems showing in straw polls vs. primaries.

[SJohnsson]

Not necessarily - we could look at the correletation of Dems showing in straw polls vs. primaries.

ehh, even then there are a lot of mitigating factors that won't be taken into account...

but it would provide at least some insight, probably not as much as you're looking for though

[DealzOnWheelz]

that would definitely shed some light on what is happening

[Jerome]

ehh, even then there are a lot of mitigating factors that won't be taken into account...

but it would provide at least some insight, probably not as much as you're looking for though

I don't think this will be a rock solid indicator, but I am still curious in any sort of correlation (or lack thereof) between straw poll numbers and primary numbers.