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mcgraw_wv
12-21-2007, 09:55 AM
In 2004, 11,000 Repuiblicans votes in the IA primary, why because their was an incumbent and there was no need to go to the primaries for repubs. SO we looks back at 2000. 84,000 republicans voted Total.

Now we can really get started on seeing exactly what is needed to see who will win.

Polling as of Today - ( ABC/Wash Post )
------------------------------------------------------
Huckabee - 35%
Romney - 27%
McCain - 6%
Thompson - 9%
Guliani - 8%
Paul - 8%

Using these numbers, let's verify the estimated voter turnout for each candidate.

Expected Voter Turnout
-------------------------------------------------
Huckabee - 29,400 votes
Romney - 22,680 votes
McCain - 5040 votes
Thompson - 7560 votes
Guliani - 6720 votes
Paul - 6720 votes


Now, for comparison sakes, let see what the percentage of turnout there was at the Iowa straw poll, which has historically been a far better indicator than media polling at predicting who will win in Iowa.
http://blog.ronpaul2008.com/ron_paul...traw-poll.html


Iowa Straw Poll Results - August 11, 2007
-------------------------------------------
Mike Huckabee: 2,587 / 18.1%
Mitt Romney: 4,516 / 31.5%
John McCain: 101 / 1.0%
Fred Thompson: 203 / 1.4%
Rudy Giuliani: 183 / 1.3%
Ron Paul: 1,305 / 9.1%



Now that was done in August 11th, Now I am going to look at the polling back when the straw poll was done
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv...ll_080607.html

ABS / Wash Poll July 31st.
----------------------------------------------------
Mike Huckabee - 8%
Mitt Romney - 26%
John McCain - 8%
Fred Thompson - 13%
Rudy Giuliani - 14%
Ron Paul - 2%



Now using the ABC Wash polling data, I want to know what the change in polling has been for each Candidate to which I will use to adjust the Straw poll numbers, and predecit the outcomes.

Change from August to December
----------------------------------------------------
Mike Huckabee - 403% Increase
Mitt Romney - 3.8% Increase
John McCain - 25% Decline
Fred Thompson - 30% Decline
Rudy Giuliani - 43% Decline
Ron Paul - 400% Increase



Now let's modify the Straw Poll results to predict what the final voter turn out will look like.


Modified Result from Straw Poll
---------------------------------------------
Mike Huckabee: 2,587 * 403% = 10425 votes
Mitt Romney: 4,516 * 103.8% = 4687 votes
John McCain: 101 * 75% = 75 votes
Fred Thompson: 203 * 70% = 142 votes
Rudy Giuliani: 183 * 37% = 67 votes
Ron Paul: 1,305 * 400% = 5220 votes
---------------------------------------------
Total votes: 20273 / 84,000 = 25% ( rounding )


Now let's modify those numbers to increase them to be 100% of the expected turnout. by takignt he 25% results and making them 100%


Modified Results to 100%
---------------------------------------------
Mike Huckabee: 41700 votes
Mitt Romney: 18748 votes
John McCain: 300 votes
Fred Thompson: 568 votes
Rudy Giuliani: 268 votes
Ron Paul: 20880 votes
---------------------------------------------
Total votes: 82464



With all that being done, here is my prediction for the results in Iowa.

Prediction for Primaries Iowa 2008
---------------------------------------------
Mike Huckabee: 50%
Ron Paul: 24%
Mitt Romney: 23%
John McCain: 1%
Fred Thompson: 1%
Rudy Giuliani: 1%
--------------------------------------------
Total: 100%



This formula takes into effect the turnout ration of supporters, and momentum since August polling. I think this will be a very accurate picture of what the 84,000 expected voters will do come Jan 3rd, I think this will also predict which supporters don't come out as they feel their candidate may not have a chance ( ie: Thompson, Guliani, McCain )

Support at the Straw poll has always been a huge factor in Iowa. And if you look at Huckabees p18% when he was still a relative unknonw in August, I thin the straw poll data modified with the momentum candidates have worked with since then, I see a landslide for Huckabee followed by a virtual tue for Romney and Paul for second.

Thoughts?

mcgraw_wv
12-21-2007, 10:17 AM
Bump....

Real_CaGeD
12-21-2007, 10:18 AM
I concurr, 2nd in Iowa

rdenner
12-21-2007, 10:21 AM
You had me right up until the very end.

I can't see Huckabee gaining 50%(nor anyone).

I think your logic is very solid though.

I think the better data to look for would be. OF THE PEOPLE WHO VOTED IN AMES in the straw poll. How many of them actually showed up to vote in the Caucus in January?

I bet the percentage for each candidate that was in the race is pretty consistent. Let's throw out 50% as a completely made up number.

What ever that percentage is, I would make a bet that Ron Paul's percentage would be much much higher(turnout).

I think what will take us from 4th/5th in the "POLLS" to a potential 3rd or longshot 2nd place in Iowa will be our incredible turnout numbers. That is the wild card at this point.

WILL THE YOUNG BASTARDS LET US DOWN YET AGAIN????

Robert

PS Great post..

Rex
12-21-2007, 10:29 AM
Good stuff

mcgraw_wv
12-21-2007, 10:31 AM
You had me right up until the very end.

I can't see Huckabee gaining 50%(nor anyone).

I think your logic is very solid though.

Ya know, now that I go over the data, the demograhpics of Iowa, and realize that most of the Called Republicans are not the Evangelical, I do believe Huckabee will get a close to 50% of the Republican vote.

2rnd place, or a very close 3rd place for Paul would be a huge Victory.

Driftar
12-21-2007, 10:35 AM
Yeah, i definatlly think this is logical. We just have to keep fighting hard, as if we are always behind. But that said, i think people may be suprised caucus night.

Sematary
12-21-2007, 10:45 AM
I think voter turnout will be LOWER this time around because of the disenfranchisement of the average Republican voter. This should be GOOD for Ron Paul - bad for the other candidates. Regardless, I do think Mike Huckabee will win IA and RP will place 2nd, or possibly 3rd.