McCain with a 5 to 1 lead on Paul in Iowa

[mwkaufman]

Someone has got to figure out what list the American Research group is calling. In their most recent Iowa poll (http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iarep8-714.html) conducted 12/16-19/07, they got these numbers:

Huckabee 28%
McCain 20%
Romney 17%
Giuliani 13%
Thompson 5%
Paul 4%
Keyes 1%
Tancredo 1%

Comparing to the rest of the Real Clear Politics polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html) their Huckabee number seems fine. McCain comes in 2nd however, with 20% being more than twice his average in the other 6 polls. The ABC/Washington Post poll conducted 12/13-17/07 found McCain with 6% support and in 6th place. Romney at 17% and in 3rd place is quite the outlier, over 30% less than his average in the other 6 polls. Giuliani with 13% is his highest number and 5% above his average. Thompson at 5% is 5% below his average. Paul at 4% is only one of two "reasonable" numbers on there, being only a couple percentage points below his average.

To recap, four candidates scored out of their margin of error of the polling averages of the six other polls. McCain was 10% off positively, Romney was 8% off negatively, Giuliani was 5% off positively, and Thompson was 5% off negatively.

They've got a real interesting and faulty polling mechanism.

[DirtMcGirt]

screw the polls... RP is winning in my mind!!!

[ThePieSwindler]

screw the polls... RP is winning in my mind!!!

....
Stop.

[rasheedwallace]

^ ahh so you agree with the polls then?

sit down.

[anotherone]

You're quoting the worst poll by ARG

A more favorable poll from ABC/Washington Post (12/13 - 12/17) has Paul LEADING McCain
Huck 35
Romney 27
McCain 6
Thompson 9
Paul 8
Giuliani 8

spread: Huckabee +8.0

[theseus51]

I don't even see how that's possible. Mccain has given up on Iowa and never campagins there, and is polling WAAAY higher in this poll than in any other poll.

[austin356]

Something is wrong with the ARG poll. Anyone with a basic feel for the political landscape will tell you McCain is not ahead of Romney in Iowa. Hell for that matter McCain is not ahead of anyone in Iowa (IMO tied with RG & FT).

[Hangly Man]

What? I thought the McCain campaign had pretty much tanked.

[tfelice]

What? I thought the McCain campaign had pretty much tanked.

Things generally start to shuffle out at this stage as more and more people start paying attention and making up their minds. McCain is gaining ground for many of the same reasons Bob Dole was nominated in 96. The Paul campaign seriously needs to start seeing some movement out of these polls now though. It is pointless to spend money in a state where you have no chance of winning.

[kylejack]

I've been criticizing ARG's numbers for a while. The parent company has curious political donations, and their totals are far astray from other polls statistically. Curiously, though, the massive Romney bias they were previously showing is missing. Very weird.

[tfelice]

Rassmussen has McCain at 14% for roughly the same time period as the ARG poll

[Ron LOL]

McCain has supporters?

[Richandler]

So the man just gets endorse by the newspaper and then certain polls show him way up. Sounds like a fake poll to me. 6% then 14% then 20% all the same time peroid. To me that says the margin of error for any poll is at least +/-14%. And that's just amoung "typical" Republican primary voters.

+/-14%!!! Not to mention the typical 3-4% margin. That's potentially +/-17-18%. Sheesh!!!

[Johnnybags]

Not 20's. We need 60k votes for good show. If we organize, it can be done. McCain somehow hangs onto that veteran crowd but I think he pissed many off with his immigration stance. He is toast.

[RonPaulFTFW]

These polls are insane.

[partypooper]

I don't even see how that's possible. Mccain has given up on Iowa and never campagins there, and is polling WAAAY higher in this poll than in any other poll.

it is possible (i don't know if it is completely accurate) but it actually makes sense. mccain is surging in all polls and is a very real threat now. the fact that he does so without money (similar to huckabee) just underscores how dangerous he is.

[jenninlouisiana]

Forget the polls... Iowa is short on delegates!!!!

[Adamsa]

it is possible (i don't know if it is completely accurate) but it actually makes sense. mccain is surging in all polls and is a very real threat now. the fact that he does so without money (similar to huckabee) just underscores how dangerous he is.

Not really, the only time he gets lately is because a democrat endorsed him.

[terlinguatx]

...

[bbartlog]

Someone has got to figure out what list the American Research group is calling

It's worse than that. I'm not normally a big poll skeptic, but this particular poll has some *extremely* odd numbers. Look at the supposed numbers for voters 'definitely supporting' their candidate:

98% of those saying they support Romney say their support is definite.
80% of those saying they support McCain say their support is definite.
67% of those saying they support Giuliani say their support is definite.
38% of those saying they support Huckabee say their support is definite.

First of all, this is close to being an exact inversion of the voter commitment numbers I got when analyzing the Newsweek poll. McCain's voters were least committed, Romney's in the middle, Huckabee and Thompson a bit higher (and Paul at the top). Second and more damning, 98% 'definite support' is statistically improbable - so much so that Bayesian thinking demands that I assume some human error (or deliberate human bias) is at work here.

There's another peculiarity - they show Paul pulling 5% of Republican voters, and 0% of Independents. This is also extraordinarily implausible.

Finally, for those who (I think with reason) assume that ARG is in Romney's camp, and wonder at the low number they show for him: ARG could be trying to help Romney play an expectations game by showing him in third. It's not like most of his voters in Iowa are following the polls very closely, so a low number late in the game here just helps him spin a good showing in Iowa without causing him any loss of votes on the ground in Iowa.

[stevedasbach]

McCain got the endorsement of the Des Moines Register last Sunday (12/16). Polls taken after the 16th reflect the impact of that endorsement.

[partypooper]

Not really, the only time he gets lately is because a democrat endorsed him.

what time? i am not talking about time he is getting but about support he is getting which might or might not be related to exposure. like it or not (and certainly do not - i hate mccain and huckabee more than any other candidate) mccain is going up in the polls in both iowa and NH. usually, rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history)picks these things first.

[kahless]

I hope that Ad outlining his military service is running there.

[mtmedlin]

ARG is never accurate. They are by far on eof the worst pollsters. Dont worry about them. If you check their polls vs. every other poll, they are always the one with widely different numbers.

[Paul4Prez]

ARG has been way out of whack all year. They're even worse than the other pollsters.