Is my head in the clouds? (NH and IA)

[RonPaulFever]

Despite the polls, I keep getting a mental picture of hordes of Ron Paul supporters showing up to the Iowa caucus and then the voting booths in NH. Ron takes Iowa in a landslide and then gets something like 74% in NH....I try to stay grounded when it comes to his chances, but I just can't see it happening any other way. The Revolution is everywhere and we always do things in a big way....so why should the primaries be any different?

[PRIEST]

It's going to happen, and the media will somehow dismiss it.

But we will prevail.

[AtomiC]

No, I'm thinking the same way.

None of the other candidates has nearly the amount of support Ron Paul has from people all over the country, and its going to show in the primaries.

[NoxTwilight]

and apparently:

"in NH alone the registered republicans went from 25% to 45% in the last 3 months"

From this thread:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=62269

I am guessing D & I's are not switching to vote for Romney or anyone else.

:D

[kushaze]

I am getting pumped out to hear the outcome already.

[fletcher]

I don't think it will be that big, but I do think he has a shot at winning Iowa. And if he wins Iowa NH will come easily. Then it's all over.

[Cinci4RP]

Despite the polls, I keep getting a mental picture of hordes of Ron Paul supporters showing up to the Iowa caucus and then the voting booths in NH. Ron takes Iowa in a landslide and then gets something like 74% in NH....I try to stay grounded when it comes to his chances, but I just can't see it happening any other way. The Revolution is everywhere and we always do things in a big way....so why should the primaries be any different?

Good Lord I hope you are right. I am in Ohio (but a NYS Registered Republican, yes my absentee application is filed) and almost no one I talk to has heard of him. I went canvassing here twice and of all the some 50-60 houses, only 2 knew who he was at all.

There is TONS more work to do. TONS TONS TONS! Hopefully we do win IA/NH and get real talk about him. I am not counting on it. Keep talking to everyone like nobody knows and be dilligent. Its far better to err on the overkill side.

I told my wife that this is the most important thing I have done, (after marrying her of course) and we CANNOT get complacent.

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

and apparently:

"in NH alone the registered republicans went from 25% to 45% in the last 3 months"

From this thread:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=62269

I am guessing D & I's are not switching to vote for Romney or anyone else.

:D

I didn't know that statistic. That's interesting. Really interesting. I'm a little bit excited. :)

[RP-Republican]

I truly believe it will come down to turnout if all Ron Paul supporters show up he will win. Republican turnout should be relatively low and with such a large field of candidates splitting the vote both work in our favor. A major snow storm wouldn’t hurt either.

[DealzOnWheelz]

but the young people just have to actually vote this time around not just talk about it

[LinearChaos]

but the young people just have to actually vote this time around not just talk about it

Paul isn't any of the other times before. If people will stand outside for an hour in 20 degree weather in the dark to get on camera holding a Ron Paul sign, they will go vote. I am willing to bet that the email chatter from the meetup groups increases gets people really motivated the closer they get.

[NewEnd]

go to opensecrets.org

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp

click on states/metros, and look at Iowa and New Hampshire for a reality check. Paul gets tiny slivers of the fundraising pie.

True, alot of those were old, but they also gave the old candidates "front runner" status.

[DealzOnWheelz]

i hope so

[hellah10]

i really hope your right man...

[ThePieSwindler]

Down with this thread. Stop geting complacent. Im not pessimistic, but this unbridled optimism is absurd. Yes, turnout is important, and yes, i think the polls are undercutting our numbers significantly, etc etc, but still. To thkn we have this in the bag? Id be happy with 3rd in iowa, 2nd in NH, and hope for a 1st in the close SC race.

[voytechs]

The thing is, he is starting to get a lot more exposure, he is doing the advertising by land, sea and air and as we get closer and closers to the elections people start thinking about their candidates, especially the GOP primary voters and learn about them (I think thats enough "and"s in the sentence.)

I don't live in IA, but in Giuliani country and I'm meeting new RP converts all the time. Some times simply due to the fact that I have bumper stickers on my car. Just yesterday I ran into a friend in Church that I haven't talked to for a while. He said he pulls up behind me when we drop our kids off a Church school, and he said that he sees my bumper stickers, 2 of them and "Ron Paul" got stuck in his head "who is he?". He went online and is behind him 100%. He converted his whole family, and just sent out a mass email to all his band and music industry friends (he plays in a couple of bands.) My neighbor (major rich person) we had dinner at his house, turns out his whole family is behind RP. Another neighbor yesterday same thing. I haven't sent out any info yet in my neighborhood, although I'm getting ready for a major canvasing campaign.

My band friend, he just donated to RP for the first time yesterday (he was lurking around Dec.16th but didn't donate.) I also convinced him to join our meetup, although he said he won't participate in meetups, he's on the list.

All RP needs is exposure and people flock to him automatically.

[cheapbastud]

go to opensecrets.org

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp

click on states/metros, and look at Iowa and New Hampshire for a reality check. Paul gets tiny slivers of the fundraising pie.

True, alot of those were old, but they also gave the old candidates "front runner" status.

dude, that was before 3rd quarter data was out.

edit- sorry, didn't read last sentence

[saahmed]

I live in Iowa, his support here isn't that big. I think he will get third. There are quite a few young people who would've voted but will be out of state during break. Even so, I don't think it would have pushed us to 2nd. 3rd looks very realistic.

[Benaiah]

The campaign needs to quit sitting on the money we gave them, and blow 4-5 million in Iowa alone. A win in Iowa would generate millions upon millions of dollars in press coverage. A win in Iowa would do more for the campaign than anything else that they could spend their money on.


Why on Earth they don't drop millions in Iowa RIGHT NOW, is beyond me. FLOOD that state with millions RIGHT NOW.

[Driftar]

I'll walk to Caucus in a blizzard for Paul.

[RP-Republican]

go to opensecrets.org

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp

click on states/metros, and look at Iowa and New Hampshire for a reality check. Paul gets tiny slivers of the fundraising pie.

True, alot of those were old, but they also gave the old candidates "front runner" status.

New Hampshire he’s only behind Romney and McCain.
Iowa he’s behind Romney, McCain, and Giuliani.

Considering Ron Paul’s donations are usually very small coming from lots of individuals this really doesn’t tell us anything. Show me a sight that shows number of individuals that donated per state and even then it still comes down to turnout.

[CUnknown]

Your head isn't in the clouds. United, we are strong and we can't be stopped. As long as we stick together and continue moneybombing and doing everything else we do -- and most importantly, show up to vote -- we will prevail. Keep it up everyone!

[RonPaulFever]

New Hampshire he’s only behind Romney and McCain.
Iowa he’s behind Romney, McCain, and Giuliani.

Considering Ron Paul’s donations are usually very small coming from lots of individuals this really doesn’t tell us anything. Show me a sight that shows number of individuals that donated per state and even then it still comes down to turnout.

Not everyone who will vote for RP has donated. In fact, donors probably reflect only a small percent of his support base.

[jcizzle]

Down with this thread. Stop geting complacent. Im not pessimistic, but this unbridled optimism is absurd. Yes, turnout is important, and yes, i think the polls are undercutting our numbers significantly, etc etc, but still. To thkn we have this in the bag? Id be happy with 3rd in iowa, 2nd in NH, and hope for a 1st in the close SC race.

Word.

[RonPaulVolunteer]

3rd in Iowa, 1st in NH.

.

[RP-Republican]

No one is getting complacent but being so negative about our chance to the point people see no point in showing up and voting isn't going to help either.

[RonPaulFever]

No one is getting complacent but being so negative about our chance to the point people see no point in showing up and voting isn't going to help either.

Who said anything about not showing up to vote? The dedication of the grassroots is what I'm basing my predictions on!

[Ronin]

Why on Earth they don't drop millions in Iowa RIGHT NOW, is beyond me. FLOOD that state with millions RIGHT NOW.

You haven't realized yet? The campaign doesn't know WTF they are doing. That's why grassroots are having to do everything. Check out the ballot threads for Ohio and Virginia. If it weren't for us picking up their slack/mistakes he wouldn't be on the ballot.

I'm sure the campaign is doing their best, but they just need to address issues in some key areas. It baffles me though why so many people want to give more money to HQ, when there are TONS of grassroots projects that are doing a much better job and are trying to accomplish things that HAVE to be done. Operationnh is a prime example.

I feel better now. I'll step off my soapbox :)

[Paul4Prez]

Turnout could win it for us even with low poll numbers, but winning will be a lot easier if we keep increasing support:

1. Get non-voters, independents, and Democrats to register Republican by the deadline in your state.

2. Keep getting Ron Paul's name and message out there. His name recognition only recently reached 50%. If we reach the other half in time, we can double his support.

3. Keep showing up in large numbers to public events, and learn how to counter the common (and mistaken) argument that Ron Paul doesn't have a chance to win.

[Paul4Prez]

3rd in Iowa, 1st in NH.



I think New Hampshire will actually be harder to win, despite Ron Paul being more popular there, because primary turnout in NH is higher than in pretty much any other state, and much higher than the turnout for the caucuses in Iowa.

I think Nevada is our best shot for a win in the early states -- Ron Paul is popular there, and they have a low-turnout caucus.

[Paul4Prez]

The campaign needs to quit sitting on the money we gave them, and blow 4-5 million in Iowa alone. A win in Iowa would generate millions upon millions of dollars in press coverage. A win in Iowa would do more for the campaign than anything else that they could spend their money on.


Why on Earth they don't drop millions in Iowa RIGHT NOW, is beyond me. FLOOD that state with millions RIGHT NOW.

They're putting up a 30-minute infomercial this weekend. I'm sure that wasn't cheap.

Still, I think you're right about the priority. They should be identifying every single Ron Paul supporter in Iowa, and reminding them to vote -- often.

[dave68]

Ron Paul loves the country I have no doubt. He really had no campaign organization or believed he had a good shot at winning. I also think he is surprised by the support!! Cut him some slack do the best you can, and we will do better as things go on. I know time is of the escence. By the way a liberal democrat made me notice Ron Paul although I knew of him. Anybody can find a lot to like about him as a candidate no matter where you are politically. Go RP!!!

[Ronin]

... learn how to counter the common (and mistaken) argument that Ron Paul doesn't have a chance to win.

I think this is key to winning people. The best training IMO is to watch every interview and debate about 5 times. To the point where it is just ingrained and you don't have to think twice about how to respond. Also, read the books he recommended to Rudy and maybe pick up a book on Austrian monetary policy. "The End of America" by Naomi Wolf is a good one too. There's a google video that gives a brief summary.

[xao]

Keep in mind that Pat robertson once won Iowa. lol

Iowa won't mean much imo. Though I hope he wins. I certainly think he can, but if he gets 3rd or 4th, i'm fine with that.

[xao]

Ron Paul loves the country I have no doubt. He really had no campaign organization or believed he had a good shot at winning. I also think he is surprised by the support!! Cut him some slack do the best you can, and we will do better as things go on. I know time is of the escence. By the way a liberal democrat made me notice Ron Paul although I knew of him. Anybody can find a lot to like about him as a candidate no matter where you are politically. Go RP!!!

How many times will the commercial run and at what times?

I wish Ron would start running Tv commercials in California. He should start doing that soon.

[Yom]

TBH, I feel the same way, xaoo, although not as extreme (marginal victories, not overwhelming ones).

[RSLudlum]

Keep in mind that Pat robertson once won Iowa. lol

Iowa won't mean much imo. Though I hope he wins. I certainly think he can, but if he gets 3rd or 4th, i'm fine with that.


yes, and have you seen this recent 700club report on Paul?
What the hell is going on??

http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=opEM8tKdOLM

[RP=RonPaul=RedPill]

“The optimist sees the rose and not its thorns; the pessimist stares at the thorns, oblivious to the rose”

Kahlil Gibran

[saahmed]

The campaign needs to quit sitting on the money we gave them, and blow 4-5 million in Iowa alone. A win in Iowa would generate millions upon millions of dollars in press coverage. A win in Iowa would do more for the campaign than anything else that they could spend their money on.


Why on Earth they don't drop millions in Iowa RIGHT NOW, is beyond me. FLOOD that state with millions RIGHT NOW.

He definitely has not spent enough here. I still have only seen on TV ad, which was about a month ago. There is some radio. But I don't understand where all that money is going. Maybe they are blitzing in the last week.

[hellah10]

Maybe they are blitzing in the last week.


sounds like it...thats what he does when running for congress

[Adamsa]

I can see him winning or I can see this:

"Ron Paul's highly motivated base just alienated a lot of supporters" - ala Howard Dean style.

[RP=RonPaul=RedPill]

I can see him winning or I can see this:

"Ron Paul's highly motivated base just alienated a lot of supporters" - ala Howard Dean style.

If that's the case, say goodbye to the Republic. All because some proles refused to do their research. Lazyiness will end the Republic. And rightly so.