I'm scared, people.

[MicroBalrog]

Well, not really. But you know.

If you're a candidate, and you are at 8% at the polls and have lots of money and very dedicated supporters [Like, uh, Ron], there are two responsible things to do:

1. Put out a LOT of ads with that LOT of money you have.

2. Use your money and volunteers for a huge, epic, giant GOTV effort.

Ron doesn't seem to be doing any of these in IA and NH, at least according tothese forums.

For months people were telling us how key IA and NH are.

What's up people?

Is there something I'm missing?

[And please don't start telling me I'm a troll and don't support Ron, that's nonsense. And also don't tell me IA and NH are not important, becuase we all know two months ago people in these forums were saying the exact reverse.]

[ARealConservative]

Eastern Iowa is under an absolute Radio and TV ad blitz right now.

My only disappointment has been with the lack of visits, not with the money spent on media.

[MicroBalrog]

Eastern Iowa is under an absolute Radio and TV ad blitz right now.

My only disappointment has been with the lack of visits, not with the money spent on media.

It is? I heard on CNN there's basically barely any purchases and most of the money will be going towards S-Tuesday, but then again I trust CNN very little.

[Matt Collins]

NH and IA are NOT that important in the grand scheme of things. Pat Buchanan won NH and Bob Dole won IA a while back. Neither made it to be President.

[ChristopherBearkat]

I'd imagine at this stage of the game all the airtime has been bought up. I'm sure the Paul campaign got all they could, including those 30 min spots

[dspectre]

Relax,

The race is not won in Iowa and NH, but all 50 states. Stop listening to to the old media. It is nothing but propaganda.

[libertyadvocate]

As with this entire campaign, this will be won or lost by our actions, not the central campaign.

I agree that IA/NH/SC are critical. We have to do decently well to gain legitimacy and start pulling in all the people who only want to vote for a winner.

I know others disagree, but I don't think the managers at the central campaign know what they're doing. So don't worry about them.

Right now, you can write letters to IA/NH (check in the grassroots organizing section here). There are some private call centers doing calls to IA. If you're able, you can go to IA and caucus or NH and go door to door.

I guess what I'm saying is that I agree that we can't rely on the campaign. All we can do is to take action ourselves.

[hueylong]

They're making sensible decisions with campaign money. They've been spending heavily in IA & NH. But also planning carefully for SC, MI, NV and the Super Tuesday states...

Chill people.

Huey

[hellah10]

our goal is to get his name and message out so that the nation is prepared for super tuesday

if we fail on super tuesday, then well... kiss the nomination good bye unless the delegates have something to say about it or if we go into a broker convention

either way, i think we are doing just fine in iowa. The addition of 250+ students going to iowa to help the campaign over xmas break is gonna help tremendously - nothing better then going door to door and cold calling to spread his name and message

be patient my friends... its an uphill battle

[Hangly Man]

Reagan won with radio. Paul is king of both radio and the internet.

Both radio and the internet are thinking mediums, better suited to someone with an actual message. TV is better for if you want to project an image without saying anything substantial.

I'm actually curious what a Ron Paul TV ad would look like.

[xao]

Clinton was only at 5% in the polls

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

Relax,

The race is not won in Iowa and NH, but all 50 states. Stop listening to to the old media. It is nothing but propaganda.


Not only that, but they're still in the "ignore" stage. If we keep pushing them into the real attack stage, things will only get better. I think Paul has been getting better and better at dealing with a hostile media. He's the closest thing to teflon I've ever seen, and he can handle an extremely hostile environment. He's been doing it for years. This is still just the beginning.

[Eponym_mi]

As the 3rd early primary state, winning in Michigan is going to be critical. However, I have yet to see/hear any Ron Paul TV/radio commercials on the air. I am getting very concerned. Activity on a grassroots level is very good and generating interest, but Ron Paul needs to start spending some money here on media NOW.

[Eponym_mi]

Relax,

The race is not won in Iowa and NH, but all 50 states.

Don't kid yourself. The primary race will be won one state at a time.

[hankpyro]

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive concluding just 4 days before Iowa caucus. (Nationwide Dems and Indys who lean Dem)

Howard Dean 19%
not sure 17%
Wesley Clark 14%
John Kerry 9%
John Edwards 9%
Joe Lieberman 9%
Dick Gephardt 8%
Al Sharpton 6%
CM Brown 5%
Dennis Kucinich 2%
other 2%

More details here. http://www.publishersgoldmine.com/2007/12/19/if-i-get-a-chimpanzee-and-a-dartboard/

[MicroBalrog]

As the 3rd early primary state, winning in Michigan is going to be critical. However, I have yet to see/hear any Ron Paul TV/radio commercials on the air. I am getting very concerned. Activity on a grassroots level is very good and generating interest, but Ron Paul needs to start spending some money here on media NOW.

See, this is the thing that should be a concern for all of us.

Why is it that the people on this forum, who generally mistrust the competency of government and the media and Big Corps, somehow develop a religious-like apprehension about the Campaign?

Guys, THIS IS NOT RIGHT.

[literatim]

We are 9% in NH now and 11% in SC.

[MrCobaltBlue]

Yeah chill out guys, the campaign is probably doing what it thinks best, they just hired on someone in Cali. These guys do this stuff for a living, we're just a bunch of spammers on the internets :-P

[xao]

Very interesting. Look at where kerry is.


Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive concluding just 4 days before Iowa caucus. (Nationwide Dems and Indys who lean Dem)

Howard Dean 19%
not sure 17%
Wesley Clark 14%
John Kerry 9%
John Edwards 9%
Joe Lieberman 9%
Dick Gephardt 8%
Al Sharpton 6%
CM Brown 5%
Dennis Kucinich 2%
other 2%

More details here. http://www.publishersgoldmine.com/2007/12/19/if-i-get-a-chimpanzee-and-a-dartboard/

[me3]

microbalrog, the campaign advertising blitz is scheduled for the 9, 10 days before the primary. It starts on the 23/34 with the 1/2 hour infomercials.

Bear in mind, we're not just competing within the GOP to purchase ad inventory, we are also competing with the Democrats. There is only so much advertising one can do in the leadup.

The most important states IMO are SC and NH. Great showings in IA and MI will help.

[planetaryjim]

As with this entire campaign, this will be won or lost by our actions, not the central campaign.

That may be true, but it is also possible for the central campaign to do everything right, and we still lose, because someone in the grassroots did something idiotic. I would refer you to Devvy Kidd's essay on this topic.
http://www.newswithviews.com/Devvy/kidd330.htm

For example, whoever threatened Glen Beck and identified hisself as a Ron Paul enthusiast, did us a major disservice. There are other things which could be done to really stupid things up.

It is also possible for us to do everything right, and the central campaign does something foolish, and the campaign is lost. The phone bank scandal involving the 2002 election is an example of something other Republicans have done which was meant to help win the election, but which seems to be generating severe blowback.

Another example is the situation earlier this week when the campaign server was taken offline for work. The web site team very thoughtfully removed the contributions counter from the web site, knowing it would show old data if they did not. What did not happen was, the dozens of other sites where that counter was being displayed were not alerted. So, the ronpaulgraphs.com site showed a nosedive in contributions until Dan was able to fix things, and other sites showed a much lower total. I'm very understanding of what happened, of course, as I work with lots of web sites myself. These things happen, people are not infallible, and the campaign team does the best they can.

But, that's the whole point, there are no guarantees here. We have to anticipate and plan around problems we can see, and be flexible to respond to ones we don't see coming. We can still screw this up, and the central campaign can still screw this up, and we cannot be sure whether we'll win or lose until the votes are counted. (And, perhaps, recounted.)

Actually, that's another good point, which Devvy, and a guy named Stalin years ago, have made. Those who vote are important, but the ones who count the votes are really, really important. It is vital to have teams involved in watching the polls and watching the counts. Let's win, and not have the election stolen.

Thanks!

[A Ron Paul Rebel]

Well, not really. But you know.

If you're a candidate, and you are at 8% at the polls and have lots of money and very dedicated supporters [Like, uh, Ron], there are two responsible things to do:

1. Put out a LOT of ads with that LOT of money you have.

2. Use your money and volunteers for a huge, epic, giant GOTV effort.

Ron doesn't seem to be doing any of these in IA and NH, at least according tothese forums.

For months people were telling us how key IA and NH are.

What's up people?

Is there something I'm missing?

[And please don't start telling me I'm a troll and don't support Ron, that's nonsense. And also don't tell me IA and NH are not important, becuase we all know two months ago people in these forums were saying the exact reverse.]

I didn't bother to read to many of the replies (since my time is better spent spreading the word of Dr. Paul) but N.H. has and continues to be hit hard with radio AND TV ads, which (with grassroots effort) will result in a RP landslide!

[parocks]

I'd imagine at this stage of the game all the airtime has been bought up. I'm sure the Paul campaign got all they could, including those 30 min spots

Is there anyone from New Hampshire or Iowa reading this? Do you have cable?

If you do, I have a question. Could you watch, let's say, ESPN, or Comedy Central, or Adult Swim, for an hour and report back what political ads you see.


I'm of the opinion that there is A LOT of tv time not being bought. I could be wrong, of course. I'm not there in NH (I was today, but I didn't watch tv).

[hankpyro]

I recently posted a bit about the inaccurracies of public opinion polls in the 2004Democratic Presidential Primary. http://www.publishersgoldmine.com/2007/12/19/if-i-get-a-chimpanzee-and-a-dartboard/

In the comments someone correctly pointed out that these date were all national surveys, not local or state surveys. So I did a bit more research and if you are feeling discouraged--or if you just want to laugh at idiot pollsters--please check out this site. http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

The above is a site that polls NH residents. In 2004, they were more accurate than the national polls but not by much. Factor in their generous margin of error and they were about the same. Up until the Iowa Caucus Kerry was locked in third place, well behind Howard Dean and the ever-charismatic Wesley Clark.

People, if you want to feel discouraged, that is your business. But do not let the Luntz's and Zogbys and Rasmussens get you down. Their reign in the Land of Oz is coming to an end.

[Rebel Resource]

Yeah chill out guys, the campaign is probably doing what it thinks best, they just hired on someone in Cali. These guys do this stuff for a living, we're just a bunch of spammers on the internets :-P

I couldn't be more at peace with what the campaign are doing. As a leftist, I know right-wingers are infinitely better organised, while the left is more creative. The beauty is that we have equal numbers of both, and while the campaign does its thing, the pressure is much reduced because the grassroots are running a massive parallel campaign that requires next to no supervision.

It's true what you say. These people worked on campaigns in the 70s and 80s, FFS. They have a lot of powerful, intelligent and connected friends. And everything is in their favour: the truth, the grassroots, the money, the momentum, and soon, very soon...some of the real media.