So, we only need ~35-40k votes to win Iowa?

[querty]

http://elections.gmu.edu/Voter_Turnout_2004_Primaries.htm

Since the turnout is so low in Iowa (~6%) that should do it right? I'm sure that's totally doable...

[Jobarra]

Didn't look at the link, but if it's the 2004 primaries for Republicans, it's probably artificially low due to the incumbent in the Executive Branch(GWB).

[Ron2Win]

Please don't let that kind of thinking creep in.

[Thatguyuknow]

Exactly, we don't need any number we need as much as we can get.

[Jobarra]

Just want the analysis to be correct. I don't think it would happen, but I would hate to see people stop canvassing because we got 40,000 votes when you really need 60-75K to win or something like that. I think most people would say though that even if you got 40,000 supporters, you can't guarantee 100% will be able to make it, so always shoot for more ;)

[ThePieSwindler]

We wont win Iowa. I dont thikn beating romney is entirely out of the question, but Huckabee will be impossible to beat, i think. Actually, i think turnout will be high for both romney and huckabee supporters, mainly because they will want to beat each other. I think right now we are shooting to secure third place, which we are very close to in poll #'s, and should get fairly easily in real #s. the key is how far behind we finish - we want the headlines to read "close race as huckabee wins" not, "Paul finished distant third". If we can get over 15%, we'll get third place and be close enough that we'll get more than just "fluke" status. All we need is top tier status, finishing close behind other frontrunners, so that we will be able to pick up the "i like him but dont think he can win" voters everywhere.

[Jobarra]

We wont win Iowa. I dont thikn beating romney is entirely out of the question, but Huckabee will be impossible to beat, i think. Actually, i think turnout will be high for both romney and huckabee supporters, mainly because they will want to beat each other. I think right now we are shooting to secure third place, which we are very close to in poll #'s, and should get fairly easily in real #s. the key is how far behind we finish - we want the headlines to read "close race as huckabee wins" not, "Paul finished distant third". If we can get over 15%, we'll get third place and be close enough that we'll get more than just "fluke" status.
Weird, I think we have a great shot of winning Iowa, especially if the 30 minute infomercial is released.

[Silverback]

All the pundits, the Iowa Republican party, and the campaigns are expecting less than 100,000 people to caucus for Republicans this year in Iowa.

Median expectation is right around 80,000, I've heard people say it could be as low as 60,000.

Look at the Democrat numbers in 2004, (and all the numbers for 2000), they weren't all that high either, and they had a lot more satisfaction and excitement about their candidates.

Turnout is going to be key, there's enough people who like Ron in Iowa to win, it's just that we have a MUCH bigger turnout hurdle to make it happen.

We've got a chance, if we really work at it, to shock the world.

I think third is almost certain and second is quite possible actually.

[ThePieSwindler]

Weird, I think we have a great shot of winning Iowa, especially if the 30 minute infomercial is released.

Perhaps, but i think the huckabee turnout will be too great, and the Romney turnout will be a reaction to that Huckabee turnout. Unless we are seeing Ron polling at 15-16% right before jan 3rd, i dont think we have a shot to win. What we WANT, though, is a solid third place finish, to be considered frontrunners. A distant third would be seen a s afluke, but a solid third, 15-20%, would be a great boon and would pick up ALOT of support in NH and later states.

[Paulitician]

We wont need that many votes to win the popular poll. We'll probably only need 30k at most. (I'm thinking this because turn out may be 125k, and there are 5 "serious contenders" beside Ron Paul who will split up the vote). If we win the popular poll we will almost assuredly win via delegates.

[angrydragon]

3rd place or better is good.

[RonPaulCult]

Wow I never knew that this influential state election was decided by such a small number of people!

[ThePieSwindler]

We wont need that many votes to win the popular poll. We'll probably only need 30k at most. (I'm thinking this because turn out may be 125k, and there are 5 "serious contenders" beside Ron Paul who will split up the vote). If we win the popular poll we will almost assuredly win via delegates.

SC is a state where splitting the vote and turnout will work in our favor, and where i am optimistic about a win. However, Romney and Huckabee are far above everyone else, and even with moderate turnout, at least one of those two will place ahead of us (most likely huckabee). Winning iowa is a pipedream unless Huckabee is Larry Craiged or something. Our goal should be to place a close 3rd. 2nd might be possible depending on the turnout of Romney supporters, which i think will be high due to the will to beat Huckabee. Huck is poling 35-40% in iowa, thats just too hard to beat if he has decent turnout.

[Paulitician]

Wow I never knew that this influential state election was decided by such a small number of people!
Indeed, it's completely backward. This give us an advantage though. I'm going say that Ron Paul's 8% in Iowa is legitimate (the pollsters didn't just make it up or try to skew their results). I don't think they're counting Ron Paul's actual supporter base. They're really underestimating it. To me, most of that 8% are more casual supporters, not diehard supporters. Also, they're not counting the dems and indies who will support Ron Paul. They're also not counting the first time voters and younger voters. I think we can actually win this thing, and if not at least get second place, especially since the campaign is really focusing on Iowa right now.

[Paulitician]

SC is a state where splitting the vote and turnout will work in our favor, and where i am optimistic about a win. However, Romney and Huckabee are far above everyone else, and even with moderate turnout, at least one of those two will place ahead of us (most likely huckabee). Winning iowa is a pipedream unless Huckabee is Larry Craiged or something. Our goal should be to place a close 3rd. 2nd might be possible depending on the turnout of Romney supporters, which i think will be high due to the will to beat Huckabee. Huck is poling 35-40% in iowa, thats just too hard to beat if he has decent turnout.
You're probably right. I'm hoping our exponential curve will knock some points from Romney and Huckabee, and I hope the attack ads both Ron Paul and Romney are doing will take Huckabee down a lot of points. In that case, I can see a win for Ron Paul. I would agree with you that right now at best we can hope for 2nd place but would have to fight Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson for 3rd place.

[shepburn]

Perhaps, but i think the huckabee turnout will be too great, and the Romney turnout will be a reaction to that Huckabee turnout. Unless we are seeing Ron polling at 15-16% right before jan 3rd, i dont think we have a shot to win. What we WANT, though, is a solid third place finish, to be considered frontrunners. A distant third would be seen a s afluke, but a solid third, 15-20%, would be a great boon and would pick up ALOT of support in NH and later states.

I agree ... a strong third in Iowa will be an A+ in my book.
NH is a different story. Anything less than 2nd in NH will be hard to overcome.
For NV ... see NH
For SC see Iowa
I think a 4th place finish in FL will be okay too.

[PledgeForPaul]

A little effort goes a long way in Iowa... especially in the 72 hours leading up to January 3rd.

Romney supporters are being underpolled as well. There is a significant morman population in Iowa who will be first time caucus goers.

It really only takes 10 to 15 votes at each precinct to get 1st in Iowa.... but I'm guessing we will finish 4th or 3rd.

[tiznow]

All the pundits, the Iowa Republican party, and the campaigns are expecting less than 100,000 people to caucus for Republicans this year in Iowa.

Median expectation is right around 80,000, I've heard people say it could be as low as 60,000.

Look at the Democrat numbers in 2004, (and all the numbers for 2000), they weren't all that high either, and they had a lot more satisfaction and excitement about their candidates.

Turnout is going to be key, there's enough people who like Ron in Iowa to win, it's just that we have a MUCH bigger turnout hurdle to make it happen.

We've got a chance, if we really work at it, to shock the world.

I think third is almost certain and second is quite possible actually.

turnout will be low on GOP side and high on democratic side

the time dems have spent in the state vs. repubs is insanity

plus dems took over the iowa house last year as well

[mcgraw_wv]

In 2000 there were 86,000 Republicans
\in 2004 there were only 11,000

Based on 86,000... 35 - 45k would be 50%, which is WAY more than we need for a win.

To win we need 20 - 30k, or in other words EVERY SINGLE PERSON YOU CAN FIND THAT WANTS TO VOTE FOR CHANGE, NO MATTER HOW MANY WE HAVE.

This is Statement time guys, not just win, it's time to make a statement.

[ItsTime]

Huckabee will come in fourth in Iowa I have no doubt.

[JosephTheLibertarian]

like that guy said.. you win when you play to win, you lose when you play to not lose.

[RP-Republican]

In 2000 there were 86,000 Republicans
\in 2004 there were only 11,000

Based on 86,000... 35 - 45k would be 50%, which is WAY more than we need for a win.

To win we need 20 - 30k, or in other words EVERY SINGLE PERSON YOU CAN FIND THAT WANTS TO VOTE FOR CHANGE, NO MATTER HOW MANY WE HAVE.

This is Statement time guys, not just win, it's time to make a statement.

Also remember in 2000 we where coming off of 8 years of Clinton so turnout was a little higher. I think the turnout will be less this year. Plus the vote will be a lot more split than in 2000. It will be a big turnout for Democrats.

Lets pray for a major snow storm because we know Ron Paul supporters wont stay home.

[katao]

Romney supporters are being underpolled as well. There is a significant morman population in Iowa who will be first time caucus goers.

This is very important to realize - Mormon's (20,000 in Iowa) are all tied together socially, and when the word comes out from the pulpit to do their civic duty (despite the non-partisan nature of it), they will all understand the message to show up and caucus for Romney. And they will show up, en mass.

That said, if we can't beat Mitt in Iowa, I want Huckabee to do so, since he doesn't have the cash to go the distance...

[Liberty]

One thing I refuse to do is let the polls determine placement before the actual event takes place. We have to continue campaigning as hard as we can and good things may happen.

[fortilite]

Let's aim for 100k caucusers in Iowa, just to be safe. ;)

[dfalken]

What I worry about is what happens as McCain, Thompson and whoever else drops out....they all are pro-war which seems to be the main dividing issue in this election...so as they drop out the vote will concentrate on the remaining war mongers...any thoughts on that?

I think the longer the field stays large and divided the better it is for us. I hope that if McCain and Thompson do drop out that the other three are able to make it at least till the big day in February to split up the war monger vote.

[Ronin]

There's a thread running around about the Wyoming delegate selection that went on this week. Apparently Romney bussed them into one county and they pretty much stole the show.

[Erazmus]

As long as every single Ron Paul support votes, we should be fine. No Ron supporter should stay home on election day.

[fortilite]

There's a thread running around about the Wyoming delegate selection that went on this week. Apparently Romney bussed them into one county and they pretty much stole the show.

Teton county. No big deal. A few RP wyoming meetups did the same thing in other counties.

[PledgeForPaul]

This is very important to realize - Mormon's (20,000 in Iowa) are all tied together socially, and when the word comes out from the pulpit to do their civic duty (despite the non-partisan nature of it), they will all understand the message to show up and caucus for Romney. And they will show up, en mass.

That said, if we can't beat Mitt in Iowa, I want Huckabee to do so, since he doesn't have the cash to go the distance...

I know 3 mormons (in Iowa) and they are all voting for Romney. None of them have caucused before.

[Avalon]

What I worry about is what happens as McCain, Thompson and whoever else drops out....they all are pro-war which seems to be the main dividing issue in this election...so as they drop out the vote will concentrate on the remaining war mongers...any thoughts on that?

I think the longer the field stays large and divided the better it is for us. I hope that if McCain and Thompson do drop out that the other three are able to make it at least till the big day in February to split up the war monger vote. As long as they don't jump out before NH and we get third or better in IA and win NH we'll be fine. There are tons of people who
A) don't think Ron Paul can win
B) haven't heard enough from the media about him
C) don't know enough about him because of A and B

Sure the neocon base will consolidate against us but just as many newcomers will jump on the straight talking underdog bandwagon with that momentum. And Ron Paul can compete $ for $ with anyone left.

[JustAnotherV]

I posted once before aobut this and someone replied there was a webiste or this but I don't know what it is...

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=49229


I am willing to be that this years turn out will be high because it is so contentious. We will need every person we can get one way or another. I hope our college crowd turns up. We've got a decent following in that area.

[yongrel]

I just want the campaign to run that damn infomercial already!

Our chances for a top 3 finish surge if we can get that infomercial on the air.

[RonPaulVolunteer]

Not so fast...

To absolutely assure the nomination, we need to turn out at least 75% of the delegates to the convention. This is why the campaign is stressing that you MUST become a delegate. If you have not yet, call the campaign now, 1 877 RON 2008 and tell them you want to be a delegate. This is more important than how many get out to vote in the primaries. DO IT!

.