davidhperry
12-20-2007, 02:52 AM
Check out one of Dan's charts using intrade data:
http://ronpaulgraphs.com/intrade_electability_rep.png
When you look at the probabilities for each candidate winning the nomination and the general election, you can get the probability of each of them winning against the democratic contender. Interestingly enough, Ron Paul is the only one above 50% - that is essentially indicating that RP has the best chance to win in November.
We need to keep reminding people that Ron Paul is the best hope the republicans have to win the White House. Use this chart as very good evidence of this fact. For those who don't know, these types of markets have been very, very reliable predictors of election outcomes. The reason is because people have real money on the line. Unlike a poll, they are a lot harder to "game" since you have a financial incentive to be say what you believe rather than want you want to happen. In order words, traders buy who they think will actually win rather than the candidate that they want to win.
http://ronpaulgraphs.com/intrade_electability_rep.png
When you look at the probabilities for each candidate winning the nomination and the general election, you can get the probability of each of them winning against the democratic contender. Interestingly enough, Ron Paul is the only one above 50% - that is essentially indicating that RP has the best chance to win in November.
We need to keep reminding people that Ron Paul is the best hope the republicans have to win the White House. Use this chart as very good evidence of this fact. For those who don't know, these types of markets have been very, very reliable predictors of election outcomes. The reason is because people have real money on the line. Unlike a poll, they are a lot harder to "game" since you have a financial incentive to be say what you believe rather than want you want to happen. In order words, traders buy who they think will actually win rather than the candidate that they want to win.