Why Paul is much higher than the Polls say

[kutibah]

I know this has been discussed over and over and over, but I would like to point this out again.

Why is Paul low in the polls?


1. Converted Democrats/Independents/Liberterians are NOT polled by the Republican Party.

2. First time voters are NOT polled.

3. College students usually do not have a land line.


Well, that seems good and all, but people, realize that MOST of our support base is from those three things above. What does this mean? It means Paul is MUCH higher than his 7% national poll. I'm talking large enough to win. Most of our support base comes from these people who are not polled. So if you add that to the 7% of those that are polled, this gives Paul a VERY good chance in 08.

Just wanted to bring this point up again...

:)

[shasshas]

i think you are right and that Dr Paul could win the nomination at the primaries. We still need to bring in the voters but you make valied points.

Thing it, still won't make a difference :/ unless we get the message out in a way to beat the Democrat leader.

Poor Dr Paul is polling at most 15% of the nation vs Obamas 45% or so..

We need to get the message out much much further and also help people understand.

I'm not sure there's enoughof us to hold them back.

[daikonv]

I'm already convinced about the 3 points you listed. Just from the impromptu polls on the forums asking what party they were with before learning of Ron Paul, asking who had land lines, who never voted before, all three of those polls showed exactly what you stated. So, no I don't trust these polls because they don't reflect our supporters accurately at all.

[Paul4Prez]

Another point besides the built-in inaccuracy of the polls, is that the people surveyed haven't really made up their minds -- they are pressured into picking a name by the pollster, and oblige, to get them off the phone.

Consider Mike Huckabee's recent rise in the polls. How did he go from 5% to 20% in a few weeks? People changed their minds, and other people will in the next few weeks, so the polls now are pretty much meaningless, even if they were accurate. A poll I saw this morning said that 60% of voters still hadn't firmly decided who they would vote for.

And of course, the polls don't predict accurately who will actually show up to vote in the primaries. Everyone says they will when asked, because they want the pollster to think they are a concerned American. Then they get busy watching a ball game, or going shopping, or cleaning the house, and forget about it -- unless they are committed to their candidate, like Ron Paul supporters are.

[kutibah]

Thing it, still won't make a difference :/ unless we get the message out in a way to beat the Democrat leader.

Well, if Paul wins the nomination, the ONLY thing the media will be reporting is about him and the Democrat nomination. So there will be enough media coverage for the average joe who has not heard of Paul to listen to his message. I mean after all, they can't deny him coverage when he's the nomination...

[Silverback]

All of those points are valid.

Turnout is the biggie.

People are going to be SHOCKED at how well we do in the early states, win or lose it'll be big news and shake a lot of people up.

[N13]

Voter turnout is the most important statistic of all.

[cicatrice]

i think you are right and that Dr Paul could win the nomination at the primaries. We still need to bring in the voters but you make valied points.

Thing it, still won't make a difference :/ unless we get the message out in a way to beat the Democrat leader.

Poor Dr Paul is polling at most 15% of the nation vs Obamas 45% or so..

We need to get the message out much much further and also help people understand.

I'm not sure there's enoughof us to hold them back.

I think Obama is sort of a "household name". For instance, when I ask my college friends if they've been keeping up with the presidential race they reply, "Not really, but I'd probably vote for Obama." I mean, I'm pretty sure they have no idea what his positions are. And this could also be applied across the spectrum of Democratic voters called for these polls. I'm not trying to discredit him but I think there is just an inherent name recognition attached to Obama.

[Antonius Stone]

i fit in all 3 categories...

lol (?)

[kutibah]

i fit in all 3 categories...

lol (?)

As many of us probably do =)

[Alex Libman]

They are not just polling republicans, they are specifically polling 2004 Bush contributors! And they narrowed the list down further by excluding people who voted Other from early polls that excluded Ron Paul! It's a perfect storm of selection bias!

The fact that Ron Paul STILL, in spite of all that, is getting 5-10% is a humongous show of strength!

[xao]

Ron Paul Wins National Zogby Poll With 33%
youtube.com/watch?v=4q5sjU-jgVA

Republican Straw Poll Results - Ron Paul
http://youtube.com/watch?v=j8SgZELRjpo



re: the rasmussen, etc. polls. They are made of responses from ONLY those who voted in the 2004 Republican primaries. In

2004, ONLY 3% of Republicans voted in the 2004 primaries. And these are mainly phone polls to people who still list their

land-line
phone number. Non-scientific Polls are traditionally always inacurate. If you want scientific polls you have to look at Straw
Polls. Ron's won most of those. He's also won the 20,000 plus tv debate polls.

How can Ron win..."scientific(?)" phone polls, that don't mention he is running, to only 100 people nationwide that voted

previously for Bush, have him at 4%...we are doomed. lofl

The online polls such as MSNBC that get over 70,000 votes have Ron as winner, but that's not a "scintific" poll of a few

hundred people is it? lofl

Anyway, the other candidates see one thing with Ron....huge crowds of people showing up everywhere he goes, and at every

debate....cheering on one man...Ron Paul....they want that too, so they are trying to copy by talking about the constitution

whether or not they follow it themselves....it seems huckabee read the constitution to mean more taxes, less freedom, and a

bigger government.....um, did he have it upside down or something?



Since the pollsters use an unrealistically high number for "probable primary voters" (usually 35-40% vs. the 5% in the last

election), and since we can assume virtually ALL Ron Paul supporters will actually vote, the final count should be something

like this:

Ron Paul 35%
Huckabee 19%
Thompson 13%
Giuliani 10%
Romney 10%
McCain 8%
Other 3%

The pollsters typically qualify 35-40% of the people they call as "probable primary voters." In reality, for example in the

last election, Republicans turned out at a 5% rate. That means most of the people polled who say they will vote for Huckabee,

Thompson, etc. actually will skip the primary. Ron Paul supporters will not.

Of course I'd love to see Ron's numbers up around the other leaders, then it would be a slam dunk. But I still think Ron is

likely to do MUCH better than expected.

[NerveShocker]

What's funny is Rudy is doing so bad we're polling higher than him in Iowa even with the inaccurate polls.

[Joe3113]

I know this has been discussed over and over and over, but I would like to point this out again.

Why is Paul low in the polls?


1. Converted Democrats/Independents/Liberterians are NOT polled by the Republican Party.

2. First time voters are NOT polled.

3. College students usually do not have a land line.


Well, that seems good and all, but people, realize that MOST of our support base is from those three things above. What does this mean? It means Paul is MUCH higher than his 7% national poll. I'm talking large enough to win. Most of our support base comes from these people who are not polled. So if you add that to the 7% of those that are polled, this gives Paul a VERY good chance in 08.

Just wanted to bring this point up again...

:)


Awesome post......This is EXACTLY why Karl Rove is scared. He knows the real numbers.

[j.b.]

I fit in the first category. My younger son is category three. He rents an apartment by school and only has a cell phone.

We need a forth category (out of school and no land-line) for my brother and older son.
My brother (who campaigned for Goldwater) is retired and spends six months in Florida each year and only has a cell phone that he takes back and forth. My older son is out of school and only has a cell phone.

It seems what they are left with is a very small pool to use for polling.

[max]

one more thing u must factor in....

paul's people will have MASSIVE turnout...

the other bums will be lucky to have 30% show up...

unfortunately...the computers will be rigged to reflect the phony polls