Another part of the "Secret Strategy" that isn't so secret

[hawkeyenick]

I'm putting this out there to ease some of your minds. Too many people are worried about poll #s when the polls won't matter 2 months from now when actual votes are cast.

They plan to go the distance, they can fund the campaign until the very end. Certain candidates will drop out as the race goes along, this leaves a window of impact as people are left with fewer and fewer choices. You can predict on your own who will drop at what point. Less candidates = more debate time and more impact per dollar spent on the campaign trail. When everyone else is broke and there are only 2-3 candidates left, we can overwhelm the conventional media.

With the delegate situation, we absolutely have what we need to compete until the very end.

I'm telling you guys, this will end in a brokered convention. We won't know until the very end who has won. We can keep momentum building until then.

[NewEnd]

I agree. Paul has the grassroots to go to the end, even if the campaign can't muster another dime. I am hoping it becomes a showdown between Paul and Giuliani.

Because I know fundamentalist Christians (not Paul supporters) that sneer at Rudy.

[Alabama Supporter]

They all have such huge flaws that I think our passion will keep us in the fight!

[ReallyNow]

I'm new to the political process, so if this ends in a "brokered convention" what does that mean? And what would be our strategy to win at that point?

[celticsman7]

Is it realistic to say McCain, Thompson, Hunter and even Huckabee are going to drop out prior to March or so? I only see Hunter and Thompson dropping out after February 5th. McCain and Huckabee I thin are going to stay in til the end of April or so.

[JPFromTally]

Is it realistic to say McCain, Thompson, Hunter and even Huckabee are going to drop out prior to March or so? I only see Hunter and Thompson dropping out after February 5th. McCain and Huckabee I thin are going to stay in til the end of April or so.

Yes, it is realistic for one reason.... $$$$$$$

McCain had to borrow $3 million just to pay his staff... Huck is lucky he has had a media surge because otherwise his money would have run out - some reports say he is close to broke as well.

[Alabama Supporter]

Hunter should bow after IA or NH with Thompson not far behind unless he has a secret strategy.

[Mark]

I'm new to the political process, so if this ends in a "brokered convention" what does that mean? And what would be our strategy to win at that point?

brokered convention –noun U.S. Politics.

a party convention in which many delegates are pledged to favorite sons who use their blocs of votes to bargain
with leading candidates who lack a majority of delegate support.

this explains a bit:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/4/5/142652/1481

Here's a discussion of it in happening in '08

http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/11/a-brokered-convention/

[Duckman]

It's the reason having delegates is so important.

Delegates are only bound to the voters wishes for the first vote. If no candidate gets a majority, the delegates are free to support whoever they want.

[hawkeyenick]

Is it realistic to say McCain, Thompson, Hunter and even Huckabee are going to drop out prior to March or so? I only see Hunter and Thompson dropping out after February 5th. McCain and Huckabee I thin are going to stay in til the end of April or so.

Huck will drop if he loses Iowa and SC, McCain will drop if he loses NH, Giuliani will drop if he loses FL, Romney will drop if he loses IA, NH, SC


Those are all probabilities, nothing is for certain

[Ozwest]

That's a nice synopsis.

Ron Paul could win!

[freelance]

It means that we court the delegates! It also means that this is the first time in eons that the conventions have been anything other than a rubber stamp. It's going to be SOME FUN come September.

[mosquitobite]

It means that we court the delegates! It also means that this is the first time in eons that the conventions have been anything other than a rubber stamp. It's going to be SOME FUN come September.

And sooo much fun to be an actual delegate too! :)

[Ozwest]

If Ron Paul gets 20% of the potential voters, the impact at the grassroots level will be unstoppable.

One Ron Paul supporter is worth 10 of the others.

[Micahyah]

Huck will drop if he loses Iowa and SC, McCain will drop if he loses NH, Giuliani will drop if he loses FL, Romney will drop if he loses IA, NC, SC


Those are all probabilities, nothing is for certain

I agree 100% with this assessment.

Nobody (besides us) is really thrilled about their candidate that they are backing in the GOP nomination. So if people don't do well, there will be a ton of pressure on them to get out. If Huckabee goes down in Iowa and SC, he'll have pressure to drop out because he has no money and if he can't hold a lead in those two evangelical heavy states he's too weak to compete elsewhere. McCain maybe has less pressure to drop out, just because he might be sort of the go to guy for the party establishment if it goes to a convention. But he will have no play if he performs poorly in NH (and we can go a long way to making that happen). Giuliani's whole strategy was Florida and onward. He's already pulling back from NH and Iowa. He will likely do so poorly in Iowa, NH, and SC that he loses badly in Florida. He already is diving in national polls, and diving in the matchups against Dems. Without being strong nationwide, there is really no reason to vote for Republicans to vote for him because he's a NY liberal at heart. If Romney fails to win Iowa or NH, after pouring so much money in, he will be embarrassed and won't be a major player after that. And if Thompson does very poorly in SC he may be pressured to drop out as well, but I think he also will be under less pressure no matter what because he's a good go to guy for the party establishment, even though he'd lose to the Dem nominee.

Now, not all of these things will happen, but several will, and several people will drop out. I think by early February it will be Paul and 2 out of McCain, Thompson, Huckabee, Romney, and Giuliani.

[CelestialRender]

Delegates is the key. The individual state votes are meaningless. The ONLY thing that counts is getting the majority of the delegates at the RNC.

[Arek]

Actually the longer we have more candidate in the better for us. That will leave us with a high number of supporters sure and we'll pull in some undecided voters, while the other undecided voters will have to decide which of the neo-cons they want. However I do look for us to pick up quite a few Thompson supporters when Thompson drops out. I almost see Thompson as an old conservative afraid to admit his roots. He also doesn't seem like he wants to run as President which means I believe the establishment wanted to use him as a figurehead.

[wfd40]

I agree. Paul has the grassroots to go to the end, even if the campaign can't muster another dime. I am hoping it becomes a showdown between Paul and Giuliani.

Because I know fundamentalist Christians (not Paul supporters) that sneer at Rudy.

Not saying I disagree with any of this, but what kept dean from 'going all the way'?? I mean, didnt the guy raise about as much as we did?

Now, obviously, Paul is a lot different than Dean (who was basically a one trick pony)... but still, what's the thought process on all of this??

[hellah10]

so are we good on delegates? ive been pretty worried about that..

[Carole]

I saw, I believe today, a remark by Dr. Paul that he could stay in until Feb 5.

Can anyone elaborate on this?

[Jobarra]

The only thing I can think of is that if a candidate doesn't get any of the states up to and including Feb 5th, is it impossible to have a majority at that point, thus ending any chances of making it to the general election? Not sure about how many delegates the total is up to Feb 5th, but I think Feb 5th has something like 900 delegates up for grabs. I think there are only 2200ish delegates for the convention after all the halving for early states?

[NewEnd]

Not saying I disagree with any of this, but what kept dean from 'going all the way'?? I mean, didnt the guy raise about as much as we did?

Now, obviously, Paul is a lot different than Dean (who was basically a one trick pony)... but still, what's the thought process on all of this??

Dean was not that much of a stark contrast on the other issues.

Rudy and Ron are worlds apart, and if forced to choose, Christian Conservatives will swing Ron.

[Mark]

I saw, I believe today, a remark by Dr. Paul that he could stay in until Feb 5.

Can anyone elaborate on this?

By "he" do you mean Dr Paul? I'm confused because I don't believe he's said anything like that. The campaign mentioned that they have the money to go all the way to the convention now. More is of course better, but they're in it until the end now.

Everyone has forgotten Bloomberg. The latest media darling Huck is going down in flames. I'm tellin' ya, they're going to call up Bloomberg next.
He's who we'll have to beat. And he's got enough of his own money to compete.

None of the above people. Dollar to a donut it's going to be Bloomberg.

[Pete Kay]

There is a great article about this at realclearpolitics.com.


It is as if each faction of the Grand Old Party feels a stronger passion to defeat its intraparty rival factions than to defeat the Democrats in November. This maximum instinct to deny victory within the party may be a sign of a philosophical rebirth (as in the Goldwater nomination and campaign of 1964), but it is also a sign of a party likely to lose the next general election.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/12/none_of_the_above_gop_heading.html