tsetsefly
12-19-2007, 09:20 AM
From a 2004 article: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=866
First of all, I still conduct telephone polls. The reality is that polling on the telephone is becoming more difficult; caller id and the widespread use of cell phones are affecting response rates. That said, I feel that representative samples can still be achieved on the phone.
Second, I stand by both my telephone and interactive results. I have yet to see evidence that the situation has gotten to the point where telephone surveys are unusable, and I am equally confident that my interactive surveys have reached a point where they are valid.
Third, cell phones do pose a problem for the polling industry, but not to the level Mr. Breslin feels. It is illegal for polling firms to call cell phones, coupling that with the rapidly increasing rate of cell phone use and the gradual decrease of land lines, the polling industry will face a crisis within a decade. For now, the 170 million cell phones are largely duplicates and triplicates of landlines. Also, many of the people Mr. Breslin cites as missing because of cell phones, are notoriously difficult to each, no matter the circumstance.
To clarify, my statements to Mr. Breslin were aimed at pointing to growing problems in the industry. As an industry, we must adapt to the future or face extinction, because the telephone will not always be a valid method of conducting random samples.
Lew rockwell mentioned this in his blog:
Writes Michel Accad: "LRC is a fantastic site and a wealth of resources. From among the different shades of libertarianisms people identify today (ref. Mother Jones article) I bet historians of the future will talk about 'LRC libertarians' as the dominant or defining movement of the RP revolution.
"Two comments: 1) The grassroots RP supporters get most of the attention these days, and deservedly so, but I must say that I find the official campaign to be doing an absolutely brilliant job as well. Take for example the phone call from Carol and the Season's Greetings video. I can't think of any better way to answer the 'fringe lunatic' smears. The 30-minute infomercial to be shown in Iowa is also spot on in every aspect. Kudos to the campiagn staff.
"2) If the polling companies would only publish their response rates, even tossing out the non-working or business numbers dialed randomly, people would quickly recognize the worthlessness of the data. I bet nowadays the rate doesn't even reach 10%, which completely annihilates the external validity (or generalizability) of the poll, even if it maintains some internal validity (eg. at +/- 4% margin of error).
"What is most amusing is to read the polling industry's cover up of the issue. They acknowledge that response rates may have declined "precipitously" but claim that it is not a big problem and that their research (undoubtedly more surveys...) show that 'the relationship between response rates and survey quality has become much less clear.'
"John Zogby is a little more realistic in this piece from 2004 stating that sooner or later the decline in response rates will put traditional telephone polling out of business (is this the year?...)."
bottom line, dont worry about the polls
BUT MAKE SURE TO TELL THAT TO PEOPLE WHO THINK VOTING FOR PAUL WOULD BE A WASTE, ALSO TELL THEM OF THE LOW TURNOUT FOR PRIMARIES...
First of all, I still conduct telephone polls. The reality is that polling on the telephone is becoming more difficult; caller id and the widespread use of cell phones are affecting response rates. That said, I feel that representative samples can still be achieved on the phone.
Second, I stand by both my telephone and interactive results. I have yet to see evidence that the situation has gotten to the point where telephone surveys are unusable, and I am equally confident that my interactive surveys have reached a point where they are valid.
Third, cell phones do pose a problem for the polling industry, but not to the level Mr. Breslin feels. It is illegal for polling firms to call cell phones, coupling that with the rapidly increasing rate of cell phone use and the gradual decrease of land lines, the polling industry will face a crisis within a decade. For now, the 170 million cell phones are largely duplicates and triplicates of landlines. Also, many of the people Mr. Breslin cites as missing because of cell phones, are notoriously difficult to each, no matter the circumstance.
To clarify, my statements to Mr. Breslin were aimed at pointing to growing problems in the industry. As an industry, we must adapt to the future or face extinction, because the telephone will not always be a valid method of conducting random samples.
Lew rockwell mentioned this in his blog:
Writes Michel Accad: "LRC is a fantastic site and a wealth of resources. From among the different shades of libertarianisms people identify today (ref. Mother Jones article) I bet historians of the future will talk about 'LRC libertarians' as the dominant or defining movement of the RP revolution.
"Two comments: 1) The grassroots RP supporters get most of the attention these days, and deservedly so, but I must say that I find the official campaign to be doing an absolutely brilliant job as well. Take for example the phone call from Carol and the Season's Greetings video. I can't think of any better way to answer the 'fringe lunatic' smears. The 30-minute infomercial to be shown in Iowa is also spot on in every aspect. Kudos to the campiagn staff.
"2) If the polling companies would only publish their response rates, even tossing out the non-working or business numbers dialed randomly, people would quickly recognize the worthlessness of the data. I bet nowadays the rate doesn't even reach 10%, which completely annihilates the external validity (or generalizability) of the poll, even if it maintains some internal validity (eg. at +/- 4% margin of error).
"What is most amusing is to read the polling industry's cover up of the issue. They acknowledge that response rates may have declined "precipitously" but claim that it is not a big problem and that their research (undoubtedly more surveys...) show that 'the relationship between response rates and survey quality has become much less clear.'
"John Zogby is a little more realistic in this piece from 2004 stating that sooner or later the decline in response rates will put traditional telephone polling out of business (is this the year?...)."
bottom line, dont worry about the polls
BUT MAKE SURE TO TELL THAT TO PEOPLE WHO THINK VOTING FOR PAUL WOULD BE A WASTE, ALSO TELL THEM OF THE LOW TURNOUT FOR PRIMARIES...