Paul At 4% And Huckabee AT 22% In Iowa?!?

[reduen]

Guys I gotta be honest, I am somewhat envious of what Huckabee has done and with almost no money! (I will not vote for him but dang.)

As I think of this I have to wonder what it is that we are not doing. We have money, massive rabid support, the right message and the best messenger by far.

What am I missing?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071219/...ll_politics_dc

"Huckabee moved ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who was in third place at 16 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 13 percent, Arizona Sen. John McCain at 12 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 4 percent."

[noxagol]

Polls are lies.

[xexkxex]

It's not us ....it's how the polls are set up.

Once you understand how each poll is conducted you realize that they are in fact propaganda.

Nothing more. We are doing everything correctly and working very hard. ;)

We are going to do very well in the first states....Trust Me! :D

[newmedia4ron]

if we do this:

Registered yet? Delegate yet? Poll Worker and/or Vote Count Watcher yet? Hit the streets with literature/DVDs yet? Circulated a petition yet? Attend GOP meetings (township - county – state) yet? Canvassed collecting names and phone numbers yet? Pass out registration forms to your meetup group yet? Promoted Ron Paul to you church, gunshows, anti-war rallies, prolife meetings, home school organizations, anti-amnesty groups, etc. yet? Call talk radio shows and pitch Ron Paul yet? Write letters to your local newspapers yet? Sent letters to celebrities asking for an endorsement yet? Ask your local television stations to profile/interview Ron Paul yet?

we should be fine

if we keep staying on the internet, we won't be

we decide our own success

[VRP08]

Those polls are not correct. We are doing nothing wrong, they are!

[rfbz]

just shows that (free) media exposure does work. I look at it like a big balloon though about to be deflated.

[Rex]

Keep up the hope!

[Ozwest]

For Christs F#cking sake.

Enough already!

[Mark Rushmore]

Witness: more donations, more signs, more supporters.

Question: should you believe your own eyes or someone else's numbers?

[UCFGavin]

last Iowa poll i saw, dr. paul was at 8%

[sluggo]

just shows that (free) media exposure does work. I look at it like a big balloon though about to be deflated.

http://img529.imageshack.us/img529/1391/huckabeefatap9.jpg

[webaform]

It may be something historic.

My theory is that the Republican party is fracturing. Social Conservatives who are easily influenced are answering telephones and saying they will vote for Huckabee. Social Conservatives who are not easily influenced are answering the telephone and saying they will vote for Ron Paul. Fiscal Conservatives do not answer land lines. Constitutionalists are too busy campaigning for Ron Paul. Call them on their cell. ..and so on :)

[hasan]

Guys I gotta be honest, I am somewhat envious of what Huckabee has done and with almost no money! (I will not vote for him but dang.)

As I think of this I have to wonder what it is that we are not doing. We have money, massive rabid support, the right message and the best messenger by far.

What am I missing?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071219/...ll_politics_dc

"Huckabee moved ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who was in third place at 16 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 13 percent, Arizona Sen. John McCain at 12 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 4 percent."

Reduen polls do not matter at all. what matters is the message. huckabee has a message that promises prosperity lies in maintaining the status quo. People like that message because they don't want to believe that we are in serious trouble right now. Since the media is all about making profits and garnering most of the market they are also spreading what the people want to hear and not the truth. we on the other hand know that the current situation is precarious and that is why we vote for Ron Paul. Believe me with the commitment Ron Paul supporters have if we have a 90% turnout we will win the primaries.
Lets stick to the truth instead of deluding ourselves with huckabees message. those 22% who follow huckabee are 22 out of a sample of 1000 past republican primary voters from the US population of 200 million. thats a very small number people. im sure we have more ppl in meetups in a single county in Iowa than 22.

[DirtMcGirt]

no more poll watching for me, i will do all i can do but watching polls doesn't help the cause

[user]

The same reason we have so much support. It's the message.

Theocrats don't like freedom. They like fascism.

[pikerz]

They are calling people who voted in the primaries for encumbent Bush.

Few people came out for that, cept his most zealous supporters.

[Mattsa]

Guys I gotta be honest, I am somewhat envious of what Huckabee has done and with almost no money! (I will not vote for him but dang.)

As I think of this I have to wonder what it is that we are not doing. We have money, massive rabid support, the right message and the best messenger by far.

What am I missing?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071219/...ll_politics_dc

"Huckabee moved ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who was in third place at 16 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 13 percent, Arizona Sen. John McCain at 12 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 4 percent."

LIES...DAMN LIES....AND ELECTION POLLS

[tsetsefly]

guys they are polling the crazy neocons who still support bush, that like 20% of the republican base at most, don't worry about the polls just keep plugging along, btw the same polls indidcate that ayatollah mike has the fewest commited supporters while Paul the most, we can still gain ground even among neocons..

[CUnknown]

The religious conservatives were looking for a candidate. It looks like they have found one -- Huckabee. It doesn't mean that Huckabee is going to win, without money he's going to have a hard time convincing others to abandon support for Guliani or Romney and flock to him. I think his poll numbers have gone up about as much as they will.

[tsetsefly]

They are calling people who voted in the primaries for encumbent Bush.

Few people came out for that, cept his most zealous supporters.

just shows you what type of support huckabee is getting, people that STILL support Bush :eek::eek::eek:

[reduen]

For Christs F#cking sake.

Enough already!


My aren't you an intelligent one.. I certainly have a better understanding of why some Ron Paul supporters are so well accepted now. Thanks.. :rolleyes:

[Ozwest]

My aren't you an intelligent one.. I certainly have a better understanding of why some Ron Paul supporters are so well accepted now. Thanks.. :rolleyes:
Care to explain yourself?

[werdd]

polls = brainwash mind controll sentiment tools, kind of like frank luntz's magical knob graph chart machine. They are tools for the sheep, who cannot think for theirselves so they assume they musty pick the winner. It's scary how many people make decisions like this.

http://img91.imageshack.us/img91/3008/werdqh8.jpg

[Ozwest]

My aren't you an intelligent one.. I certainly have a better understanding of why some Ron Paul supporters are so well accepted now. Thanks.. :rolleyes:
The intelligent one awaits...

[koob]

Huckabee didn't do anything--it was the media. I remember back in September my dad casually said to me, "You don't hear a word about Ron Paul on the news but they sure talk about that Huckabee a alot." And that is coming from an unbiased non-ron paul supporter. (Although considering the bumper sticker on my dad's car, I'd say he is now :))

[reduen]

Care to explain yourself?

Do you?

[jeremycobert]

i have been going to the linn county(Iowa) republican meetings for almost a year now. at these meetings people break into groups for their candidates and get to speak for a minute on behalf of their candidate.during this time Huck,tancredo,hunter had no representation. but in the last months meeting there were like 4 or 5 senior citizens for him. so he is touching a nerve with the blue hairs, i think its more about fooling them with his commercials. if you dont look into his record then he looks like a conservative.after you dig a little you see he is just another GWB type of republican.

Romney is already attacking him in ad's so we have seen his support begin to decline. our best chance is that iowa gets hit with a bad snow storm, this will keep the dopey people at home and we know the Ron Paul supporters would come out even if there were fireballs falling from the sky.

[tsetsefly]

from lew rockwell blog:

Writes Michel Accad: "LRC is a fantastic site and a wealth of resources. From among the different shades of libertarianisms people identify today (ref. Mother Jones article) I bet historians of the future will talk about 'LRC libertarians' as the dominant or defining movement of the RP revolution.

"Two comments: 1) The grassroots RP supporters get most of the attention these days, and deservedly so, but I must say that I find the official campaign to be doing an absolutely brilliant job as well. Take for example the phone call from Carol and the Season's Greetings video. I can't think of any better way to answer the 'fringe lunatic' smears. The 30-minute infomercial to be shown in Iowa is also spot on in every aspect. Kudos to the campiagn staff.

"2) If the polling companies would only publish their response rates, even tossing out the non-working or business numbers dialed randomly, people would quickly recognize the worthlessness of the data. I bet nowadays the rate doesn't even reach 10%, which completely annihilates the external validity (or generalizability) of the poll, even if it maintains some internal validity (eg. at +/- 4% margin of error).

"What is most amusing is to read the polling industry's cover up of the issue. They acknowledge that response rates may have declined "precipitously" but claim that it is not a big problem and that their research (undoubtedly more surveys...) show that 'the relationship between response rates and survey quality has become much less clear.'

"John Zogby is a little more realistic in this piece from 2004 stating that sooner or later the decline in response rates will put traditional telephone polling out of business (is this the year?...)."

[rightobeleftalone]

I think he is upset as I am at the constant use of our Lord's Name used in vain. I do not want to irrate anyone citing Bible verses and so I don't. It would be nice for those of you who are not Christians to please not take our Lord's Name invain. Let's stay focused on getting Ron Paul elected. Freedom brings us together from all religions, philosophies and creeds. Let's not irritate one another. Enough said. Thank you.

[Ozwest]

Do you?
Excuse me dill-wadd, you started this merry-go-round.

Don't expect me to be your whipping post.

[Mike S.]

Keep in mind that the polls only include those that "normally vote republican". People that indicate Dem or Indy status may not be included. How many of you would classify yourselves as Republicans?

Keep the faith. Put down the mouse. Pick up the phone. Spread the word. The REAL poll will be on voting day when all the crossover votes are counted. But we NEED at least double digits in the first few primaries. ACT NOW! Is there an anti-Iraq war person you have not spoken to yet?

[Midnight77]

There was a guest on Hardball last night that even said that the polls are NOT accurate and doesn't understand why the Media is so obsessed with them anymore. We need a new polling system that is based on the Internet now. Not landline telephones.

[Zydeco]

Envious of bogus polling? Why?

Yesterday's Gallup poll showed Ron Paul polling at 3% nationally and Alan Keyes also at 3%.

What is the validity of a poll that shows Ron Paul and Alan Keyes at similar levels of support?

[user]

Envious of bogus polling? Why?

Yesterday's Gallup poll showed Ron Paul polling at 3% nationally and Alan Keyes also at 3%.

What is the validity of a poll that shows Ron Paul and Alan Keyes at similar levels of support?
If you're right about that poll, that is a GREAT argument. Do you have a link we can use to show people?

[Zydeco]

If you're right about that poll, that is a GREAT argument. Do you have a link we can use to show people?

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2007/12/usatgallup-poll.html

[mport1]

It's not us ....it's how the polls are set up.

Once you understand how each poll is conducted you realize that they are in fact propaganda.

Nothing more. We are doing everything correctly and working very hard. ;)

We are going to do very well in the first states....Trust Me! :D

We need to stop underestimating the importance of polls. Are they inaccurate? Yes. But RP is likely only a few points higher than they show.

[user]

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2007/12/usatgallup-poll.html
Thanks, wow that poll is ridiculous. It even shows RP's support dropping. :rolleyes:

[slantedview]

keep in mind, huck hasn't really "done" anything.

the media pushed him VERY VERY VERY hard for a month or two, which is why he is where he is today.

[voiceactivated]

I am a Ron Paul supporter, but if I were undecided I certainly would be turned off by the behavior of some of his supporters. Many of you are rude, crude and unruly. Screaming in people's faces and disorderly behavior is not the way to win friends and influence enemies. Why can't you understand that?

[fedup100]

You all are letting trolls tear at Dr. Paul, hit the effin delete button please!!

[RevolutionSD]

Huckabee did not magically gain 20 points in a few days without any significant ads.

The media said he was the hot candidate and that supposedly made him the hot candidate.

Do you KNOW personally any Huck supporters?
Have you ever seen one on the street?
Have you seen a Huck bumper sticker???

There is ZERO support for Huckerbee in CA, and my guess it's similar in other parts of the country outside of maybe him home state of Arkansas.

The support is made up, fabricated.
Hopefully they don't fabricate the vote too. :mad:

[user]

Huckabee did not magically gain 20 points in a few days without any significant ads.

The media said he was the hot candidate and that supposedly made him the hot candidate.

Do you KNOW personally any Huck supporters?
Have you ever seen one on the street?
Have you seen a Huck bumper sticker???

There is ZERO support for Huckerbee in CA, and my guess it's similar in other parts of the country outside of maybe him home state of Arkansas.

The support is made up, fabricated.
Hopefully they don't fabricate the vote too. :mad:
I don't think we can generalize from CA. The idea of a theocracy is more popular in other parts of the country.

[hrdman2luv]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0md2vXiOGs

Can we post Youtube vise in here?

[Bossobass]

Huckabee did not magically gain 20 points in a few days without any significant ads.

The media said he was the hot candidate and that supposedly made him the hot candidate.

Do you KNOW personally any Huck supporters?
Have you ever seen one on the street?
Have you seen a Huck bumper sticker???

There is ZERO support for Huckerbee in CA, and my guess it's similar in other parts of the country outside of maybe him home state of Arkansas.

The support is made up, fabricated.
Hopefully they don't fabricate the vote too. :mad:

This post is spot on.

My mother, who is 72 and watches Fox news every day of her life, in an unrelated phone conversation, blurted, 'Wow, that Huckabee guy sure is on the news a lot these days'.

Several people I talk to fairly regularly said nearly exactly the same thing to me.

Most of them couldn't say his name correctly. I had to correct their version of Huckabee, to which the exclaimed, 'Yeah, that's the guy!'.

So, in a few weeks of total media blitz, Huckabee is well known. Well, not well known enough for people to even remember how to pronounce his name, but well known enough for them to respond to a hard line phone poll where they say the names for you.

I believe that Iowa, generally speaking, is a politcal toilet of manipulated Presidential election results. I also have found in my travels to the state, that the people of Iowa are generally extremely apathetic. I mean, c'mon...the pols have to buy them a ticket, tansport them to the venue, lavishly feed them and entertain them, and even then they only get 40,000 participants to the Straw Poll.

They wait until the last few days and let the MSM and local rags (Des Moines Register) tell them who to vote for. I that doesn't work well enough, they use Diebold software to adjust the vote results.

Just my opinion regarding Iowa.

Work as hard as you personally can to introduce RP to the citizens and work the polls in every legal capacity, and for cryin' out loud, sponsor a credible exit poll to prevent the fruitless cries of foul that have no evidence to back them.

Bosso

[Derek Johnson]

Registered yet? Delegate yet? Poll Worker and/or Vote Count Watcher yet? Hit the streets with literature/DVDs yet? Circulated a petition yet? Attend GOP meetings (township - county – state) yet? Canvassed collecting names and phone numbers yet? Pass out registration forms to your meetup group yet? Promoted Ron Paul to you church, gunshows, anti-war rallies, prolife meetings, home school organizations, anti-amnesty groups, etc. yet? Call talk radio shows and pitch Ron Paul yet? Write letters to your local newspapers yet? Sent letters to celebrities asking for an endorsement yet? Ask your local television stations to profile/interview Ron Paul yet?

Bingo! Copy paste this into a word doc and hand it out to everyone at church.

[dspectre]

This is ridiculous.

The Reality is NO ONE KNOWS the exact support for anybody.

If you haven't noticed how the media has treated Dr. Paul and thinks that has nothing to do with the Polls, then I really don't know what to tell you.


The Polls mean nothing. It's all manufactured. Get that through your head. Just because it appears on a television screen and a group of people say it is true DOESN'T MAKE IT SO.

The Media will never say he polls well. If you want that, join a campaign that has a panderer.

[davidhperry]

The important thing is the GOTV effort right now.

[LeonardK]

I'll answer the OP since no one else did:

As I think of this I have to wonder what it is that we are not doing.
Pandering. Rev Mike's tellin' the sheeple what they think they want to hear. The sheeple don't want to be challenged, they want their bread and circuses.

[jacmicwag]

Huck is for real. People like him because he seems like a sincere, warm and funny guy. Guys like that get elected for their personal traits more than their stand on issues. You can bet that Huck will continue to do everything he can to sound more like Dr. Paul but still stay true to his populist message.

Sure, it hurts to see this guy take off on the rocket we all wanted to ride. But remember - we have doubled our poll numbers at least twice in the past few months. Other than Huck, we are the only campaign moving in the right direction. We are just now starting an advertising blitz that could have a huge impact on our numbers. All of the competition (Mitt, Rudy, etc) is focused on Huck right now which could also work to our advantage. We have a shoot at this thing - a much better one than 3 months ago. Ron's message is being heard by more people every day - and many of them are joining us. So what do you think - is the glass half empty or maybe getting ready to overflow?

[davidhperry]

Huck is for real. People like him because he seems like a sincere, warm and funny guy. Guys like that get elected for their personal traits more than their stand on issues. You can bet that Huck will continue to do everything he can to sound more like Dr. Paul but still stay true to his populist message.

Sure, it hurts to see this guy take off on the rocket we all wanted to ride. But remember - we have doubled our poll numbers at least twice in the past few months. Other than Huck, we are the only campaign moving in the right direction. We are just now starting an advertising blitz that could have a huge impact on our numbers. All of the competition (Mitt, Rudy, etc) is focused on Huck right now which could also work to our advantage. We have a shoot at this thing - a much better one than 3 months ago. Ron's message is being heard by more people every day - and many of them are joining us. So what do you think - is the glass half empty or maybe getting ready to overflow?

I agree completely. If people want to help out, contact the Iowa and/or NH efforts and pick up the phone to call supporters.

[LeonardK]

Also I think Huck's playing the "Good Cop" card to Ron's "Bad Cop".

The sheeple don't want to be told that things are bad here, bad there, this is broke, that's wrong. Even if they know it's true, they don't want to hear it. I have heard "half-full" comments from Paul but I've heard just as many "half-empty" comments from him and I think that turns people off a little, whereas Huck's corrupting the message to say, yeah it's broken a little but don't worry none 'cause my new big government can fix the old big government.

[propanes]

I agree completely. If people want to help out, contact the Iowa and/or NH efforts and pick up the phone to call supporters.

+2

Top of Drudge features an article about the Huckster describing, "the groundswell for Huckabee". The article has no mention of Paul's record fund raising.

The media will continue to push anyone but Ron. That's the way it is.

[SteveMartin]

Check this thread:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=60158

[Taco John]

What am I missing?



A membership to the CFR.

[frasu]

The polling is getting ridiculous... we do our thing and disregard all this nonsense... polls done with couple hundred of people, with 5% margin of error?? that is a joke... check out this article:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2004064147_peterhart11.html

VERY GOOD analysis of a poll-obsessed media...

[Alex Libman]

They're only polling the "Dubya fanclub" from 2004, so no wonder the most Bush-like candidate is winning!

Somebody ought to tell them that other people can vote too... Or maybe they'll keep me from the voting booth because I've just re-registered as Republican or don't have a land-line?!?

[Maltheus]

I just got telephone polled last night. There went through each candidate, one by one, asking if I would vote for them. I waited through that entire list yet alas, no Ron Paul. Now I can tell people this first hand, instead of just referring to what I've been hearing online.

[nbhadja]

CAN SOME OF YOU NOT READ?? POLLS ARE BS!!!!

[Ozwest]

CAN SOME OF YOU NOT READ?? POLLS ARE BS!!!!
Fuck mate, you cracked my screen!

[jmunjr]

So if Paul only gets 4% in the actually primary election how many of you will accept it and how many will say, "the election is a lie" or "it was rigged" ?

[benhaskins]

it would be nice if they gave the sample size in every poll they mention instead of saying, "60% of americans like looking at yellow poop."

[nist7]

Huck and Romney are splitting up alot of the neocon votes:


Favorable opinions of Huckabee have dropped from 81% to 67% over the past week and the Huckabee tide has receded a bit. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Iowa’s Likely Caucus Participants shows that Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are now essentially tied for the lead in the state that will vote first in 2008.

No worries, we all know these polls underestimate Ron Paul's support. Just keep on campaigning!

[coboman]

What are we missing? A good official campaign

[nist7]

So if Paul only gets 4% in the actually primary election how many of you will accept it and how many will say, "the election is a lie" or "it was rigged" ?

Depends on when and where.

If he is consistently getting that low of a number from IA to NH to WY to Super Tuesday....then we can probably assume that our support just isn't strong enough.

On the other hand, this is why exit polls are very very important. If the exit polls are showing Ron Paul at 30% and the "official" vote count is 4%......then we have a much better case to investigate any election rigging.

[LibertyEagle]

Guys I gotta be honest, I am somewhat envious of what Huckabee has done and with almost no money! (I will not vote for him but dang.)

As I think of this I have to wonder what it is that we are not doing. We have money, massive rabid support, the right message and the best messenger by far.

What am I missing?



We need this mailing list that right now, only Huckabee has (or something similar to it).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/01/AR2007120101569.html

[mconder]

I am somewhat envious of what Huckabee has done and with almost no money!

Huckabee didn't do anything. The powers that be realized that Mitt and Guiliani can't fool the American people, so they went to option C. Huckabee. Once they started mentioning his name every 5 seconds, his poll numbers started to increase. I've seem the media take something that 10% of the American public favors and reverse the poll numbers to like 80% in a matter of weeks. This is what we are dealing with.

[exformation]

The polling is getting ridiculous... we do our thing and disregard all this nonsense... polls done with couple hundred of people, with 5% margin of error?? that is a joke... check out this article:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2004064147_peterhart11.html

VERY GOOD analysis of a poll-obsessed media...

Interesting quote from the article:

"[ABC Reporter] Snow recalled that 'four years ago, John Kerry — who eventually was the Democratic nominee — he was polling in Iowa at 4 percent.' "

;)

[BillyDkid]

Polls are lies.Not to mention Huckabee didn't do it - the national media - out of nowhere - decided make a big deal out of him and talk about him endlessly and put his face on the air every two minutes, plus driving it into everyone's head what a great Christian he is - which all the evangelicals suck up like candy. "Huckabee...He's the one to watch. It looks like Huckabee is going to break out!!!!" and so on. They are playing there part in "Find any excuse to promote anyone besides Ron Paul!" game.

[Ozwest]

This continious parade of bogus polls that dishearten supporters is a tactic short-lived.

Three weeks from now, you will be licking your whiskers , satisfied in your accomplishments.

[nist7]

This continious parade of bogus polls that dishearten supporters is a tactic short-lived.

Three weeks from now, you will be licking your whiskers , satisfied in your accomplishments.


Hear! Hear!

Don't letup folks!

[LibertyEagle]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/01/AR2007120101569.html

He's got it and either we need that one, or one like it.

[nist7]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/01/AR2007120101569.html

He's got it and either we need that one, or one like it.

That's effing unbelievable....