What do you think about our chances at this stage?

[MicroBalrog]

I'll be careful here, there are several factors that might influence Ron Paul's ascent or lack thereof.

On one hand, he doesn't have the majority or plurality of Republicans. What do I mean? I mean that if you could magically poll every Republican in America and get instant results, Paul wouldn't win. He'd likely get slightly more than what the media ascribe to him, mayb around 10%. But not win.

But the real primaries do not work that way.

One, the real primaries have really, really low turnout. Primary turnout averages to be from 6-10%, and analysts are expecting a very low turnout this year. This is a huge advantage for Ron Paul, because his supporters are more dedicated.

Two, the real primaries don't occur in all states at once. This means that if, say, Ron Paul wins New Hampshire, this might increase his chances in later states. This happened with Clinton, IIRC.

Three, not all the states have primaries. Some states have caucuses, which mean only a very small percentage of voters come to them. If you want to know what that can mean, I suggest you go look at the 1964 Republican primaries.

Four, Ron has a lot of money. He is famous for winning Congressional races in the past with a lot of last-minute advertising. He could also use it for GOTV efforts among populations not normally expected to vote, say college students [a HUGE Ron Paul demography].

Now, [b]I am personally in favor of Ron Paul, but there are things which I am forced to note might trip him over.

One, the local GOP establishment really does not like him. This means they could screw over his supporters with county caucuses and the like.

Two, his campaign staff have already dropped the ball several times – in particular, they nearly failed to get him on the ballot in D.C. and supporters had to pick up the slack.

Three, unless Ron can somehow appeal to mainstream Republicans, above-average turnout will shoot him in the ass.

So if I were a Ron Paul campaign staffer, I'd be praying for blizzards in New Hampshire and Iowa.

[azminuteman]

Put your blinders on and race.
Don't worry about the periphery.
Vote when it's called for.

I think he will do better than the polls say.
I believe he will place in the top 3 on most if not all states.

I want to believe he will win some states - the polls make me think otherwise.

I do not care what the polls say, I just want to promote Ron Pauls message.

[JMO]

I think its too hard to call. Just 4 weeks ago Huckabee was not even a blip on the radar, now the media has annoited him the next savior and he is leading in most polls.

[firebirdnation]

I think he is going to win, but we have to focus locally and get the word out. My wife and I have never agreed on a candidate before, until of course Ron Paul came onto the scene. She is a life long Democrat who is registering as a Republican to vote for Ron Paul. I am also an independent who registered Republican to vote for Ron Paul. We have more support than many realize and I know we are going to surprise a lot of people come election day. Keep your chin up and lets win this thing!

[hueylong]

Let the campaign worry about the message for Republican Primary Voters. All the grassroots needs to do is keep doing what we're doing, and BE POLITE.

As long as we aren't cursing and scaring the old people... we'll be golden.

Huey

[videogeek]

I think all RP really needs to do is come in ahead of Giuliani in Iowa or NH to get big coverage and be taken seriously on Super Tuesday. I think it's entirely possible in NH. Rudy is reportedly putting it all on Florida. We know RP will beat Thompson, which should get him out of the way for good, Hunter and Tancredo have even less of a chance than Paul (you think WE'VE got coverage problems...)

[LibertyEagle]

Time will tell, but we certainly could stand to do a whole lot more passing out of flyers. Those and excellent radio ads could go a long way. And these are things we could do, without the campaign.

I also think we're making a big mistake if we think we can flip the Republican party the bird and still win this thing. Many rank and file Republicans are just like us. They just have fallen for the MSM propaganda. I think we're shooting ourselves in the foot if we don't get involved in our local and state GOP and let them see that we're not some kind of whacked out weirdos.

I also think we've got to stop approaching regular people like they're some kind of enemy. The are voters and we need their vote.

[LibertyEagle]

Let the campaign worry about the message for Republican Primary Voters. All the grassroots needs to do is keep doing what we're doing, and BE POLITE.

As long as we aren't cursing and scaring the old people... we'll be golden.

Huey

What??? The campaign can't get the message to all the Republican primary voters, all by themselves! That's what we're here for. Geez. C'mon. If we lose the Republican primary, IT'S OVER!

[constituent]

nothing short of 100% victory, a landslide that sweeps RP into the whitehouse.

ron paul is the next president of the united states, there is no longer any question of that.

[constituent]

we're not some kind of whacked out weirdos.


and for those of us who are? :D

[Paulitician]

Slim right now. It all hangs on early states, I think.

[european]

One, the real primaries have really, really low turnout. Primary turnout averages to be from 6-10%, and analysts are expecting a very low turnout this year. This is a huge advantage for Ron Paul, because his supporters are more dedicated.

Two, the real primaries don't occur in all states at once. This means that if, say, Ron Paul wins New Hampshire, this might increase his chances in later states. This happened with Clinton, IIRC.

Three, not all the states have primaries. Some states have caucuses, which mean only a very small percentage of voters come to them. If you want to know what that can mean, I suggest you go look at the 1964 Republican primaries.


so true. i have seen calculations a month or two ago on this very same forum. with a low turnout, and the missing voters (non-polled), ron paul will be a contender for the win of the primaries. i truely believe this. specially if he steps up his advertising in the early states. ron paul supporters will go out to vote because we believe in our cause.



Now, [b]I am personally in favor of Ron Paul, but there are things which I am forced to note might trip him over.

One, the local GOP establishment really does not like him. This means they could screw over his supporters with county caucuses and the like.

Two, his campaign staff have already dropped the ball several times – in particular, they nearly failed to get him on the ballot in D.C. and supporters had to pick up the slack.


i think the love will be taken out of the revolution if ron paul supporters find out that a certain person has rigged the poll that they voted in.

[jnpg]

by the minute. One thing that RP has is DEDICATED supporters. No one else has anything like it. Can't we all drag a couple of friends/family to the primaries/caucuses (or is it cauci?)? Seriously- I don't think I have ever voted in a primary before- never seemed too important to me before.

We can and will turn out the vote. The only other candidate that will have great organization for turning out the vote is Mitt- via the LDS church. However, I don't think that will work nationwide. I don't think there are that many Mormons in the US. 2005 Salt Lake Tribune article cited research indicating that the church's active, churchgoing membership may be limited to approximately 4 million. So a little more that 1% of the U.S. population...

Anyway - yes! We have a good chance- but we have to keep charging hard and talking to people and handing out flyers. REMEMBER this:- You are a Republican and you support the Republican fundraising frontrunner! This is important because we need Republicans!

BTW- does anyone have a count on the number of new Republicans this election cycle? To all of you new to the GOP - welcome and let's do this!

[manny]

Time will tell, but we certainly could stand to do a whole lot more passing out of flyers. Those and excellent radio ads could go a long way. And these are things we could do, without the campaign.

I also think we're making a big mistake if we think we can flip the Republican party the bird and still win this thing. Many rank and file Republicans are just like us. They just have fallen for the MSM propaganda. I think we're shooting ourselves in the foot if we don't get involved in our local and state GOP and let them see that we're not some kind of whacked out weirdos.

I also think we've got to stop approaching regular people like they're some kind of enemy. The are voters and we need their vote.

+1

Probably wouldn't hurt if everyone read these words each morning and let them inform their actions for the day.

[VoluntaryMan]

I think its too hard to call. Just 4 weeks ago Huckabee was not even a blip on the radar, now the media has annoited him the next savior and he is leading in most polls.

That's easy: no one was getting terribly excited about the "front-runners," and Dr. Paul was starting to demonstrate some momentum. The MSM needed to back a "dark horse," to inject some excitement into the race. Faced with the choice between pro-establishment Huckleberry and anti-establishment Paul, they made the obvious choice. They decided to promote the non-threatening, big gov't, "compassionate conservative" (i.e., socialist) Huckabee, and to ignore and marginalize the traditional conservative, limited gov't, free market favoring candidate, Ron Paul.

Unfortunately, what many values voters (only a portion of which comprise the bulk of Huckabee's base) haven't yet realized is that Huckabee is a general election loser (which he knows), and is really running a 2 front campaign: 1) he is running to block Ron Paul, and 2) he is running to be Ghouliani's VP (which is contingent upon his accomplishing his 1st objective). Huckabee's job in this race is to keep social conservatives (voters who would otherwise be flocking to Dr. Paul) in line long enough for Julie-Annie to secure the nomination. Once that's a fait accompli, Girliani will quickly give the nod to Huckabee as VP, and il duce will have successfully quelled a so-con rebellion against his candidacy (that's the plan, anyway).

Hopefully, these misguided Huckabee supporters will wake up before it's too late. If they'd only use their eyes, ears, and the brains God gave them, they'd notice that the candidate that they think they're supporting to block the abortion loving, pro gay marriage, cross-dressing Giuliani is really in league with the devil. The only battles that the Huckster is having is with the Mormon Romney and the Christian Paul -- not with the hedonist Ghouliani. When are these people going to wake up? Soon, I hope.

[N13]

Let's make this happen people, we can win.

[Zym]

A couple thing need to happen:

1) we need to get to 10% in the national polls QUICKLY. Lets hope the media advertising blitz, the GB appearance and other coverage will do it.

2) we need to do well in IO and NH, not necessarily win, but place in the top three

If both these happen Dr. Paul will get the media coverage he needs, and we have a decent chance at super Tuesday.

[jacmicwag]

It's still a long shot but the odds are getting better. Remember all the "less than 1%" poll numbers just a few months back. We've doubled twice since then. If we double once more from 7%, we're right in the middle of the action.

If we can each drag one or two extra voters to the primaries, that could mean the difference.

[Minuteman2008]

Time will tell, but we certainly could stand to do a whole lot more passing out of flyers. Those and excellent radio ads could go a long way. And these are things we could do, without the campaign.

I also think we're making a big mistake if we think we can flip the Republican party the bird and still win this thing. Many rank and file Republicans are just like us. They just have fallen for the MSM propaganda. I think we're shooting ourselves in the foot if we don't get involved in our local and state GOP and let them see that we're not some kind of whacked out weirdos.

I also think we've got to stop approaching regular people like they're some kind of enemy. The are voters and we need their vote.

I know RP doesn't get a lot of time to speak in the debates, but I wish he could somehow focus on more than just the war in the time he is given. I thought he gave a great answer when asked about the North American Union in the Youtube debate. Potential Republican voters need to hear more of that, plus his strong record on immigration, spending, 2nd Amendment, and right-to-life. Iraq is not the only issue (and according to Pat Buchanan's new book, not as important as what is happening on our southern border). Why can't Ron Paul get the Buchanan voters? Some are supporting Tancredo or Hunter, but once those two drop out, they need to feel like Ron Paul is their best choice. But I don't think he has courted them that much, at least with his performance in national debates. There are surely a ton of paleoconservatives who would seriously consider Ron Paul. It would be a shame for those voters to be split among Thompson, Romney, and Huckabee (McCain and Giuliani are probably dead in the water for those voters). His website spells out the issues perfectly, but it is rare that I see an interview or debate clip with him talking about anything but Iraq, and I think this is a wasted opportunity in the long run.

[Alex Libman]

I think the odds of Ron Paul helping the Free State Project are 100.000%, and that's good enough for me!

[Chaos Unlimited]

Every one of us needs to work our butts off. Go to shopping centers, hand out flyers, DVDs, Ron Paul liberty dollar chocolates (great giveaway item!)

We will not win without huge on the ground, away from the computer, efforts.

[VoluntaryMan]

1) This needs to be a national campaign, and I believe it is.

2) I believe that Paul's true popularity with ALL currently registered Republicans is closer to 20%, and potentially double that among all independents and 3rd party members. It's true that his popularity within the base has room to grow, but part of the problem is that much of the current Republican Party base no longer bears any resemblance to the party of Goldwater and Reagan (much of the current Libertarian and Constitution parties membership is made up of the old Republican party base). Courting the new neocon base, for Dr. Paul, would really be no more than shameless pandering. However, I believe there are still enough traditional conservatives in the party for Ron Paul's popularity among the current Republican base to grow as high as 30%. However, the remaining neocon socialists (who don't even realize that they are socialists) are going to maintain an unfavorable opinion of a man who doesn't want to allow the UN, or any foreign gov't, to dictate US foreign policy, and who opposes managed trade that masquerades as "free" trade. Such is the degeneracy of the current Republican base.

3) The good news is that Paul is currently under polling by at least half of his true popularity among currently/potentially eligible primary/caucus voters.

4) The further good news is that Ron Paul supporters are at least twice as likely to vote as the supporters of most other candidates (the only wildcard being Huckabee's misguided bunch, who are enthusiastic, but, I believe, will become increasingly suspicious of their candidate, as crunch time approaches).

5) Our obligation is 2 fold: we must keep the momentum going, because, unless Paul is consistently polling over 10% nationally by election day, we have no reasonable expectation of success. Also, we must do our best to make sure that every potential Paul voter makes it to the polls (we can't afford to lose even one).

6) Paul stands a very good chance of performing well enough in the early contest to guarantee his position as a serious candidate and top contender. That moment can carry him through to several key Super Tuesday wins, perhaps even transforming him into THE front-runner, after Feb. 5th. With his increased momentum and exposure, he could conceivably either win the nomination outright, or be in an excellent position to cause a genuine arm-wrestling contest at the convention, depending upon who else is still running, by then.


This is NOT an impossible dream. We can win....barring some HUGE and transparent "irregularities."

[ChickenHawk]

I hope he can win the nomination and I think it is remotely possible. I'm more worried about the general election. I think Ron Paul's message is too "extreme" for most Americans. People won't embrace the kind of change he is advocating unless they feel they have nothing to lose. We are still a long way from that point I think.

[Matt Collins]

Ron's chances are directly proportional to the amount of effort we put out.



If Ron loses, it's our fault!

Do you want to tell your grand kids in 50 something years that we once had a chance to turn this country around but we didnt put out enough effort individually and as a group to make it happen?

I sure the hell dont!

[Harry96]

Paul just needs one early victory to become a household name.

A story came out in the last couple of days that Thompson is about out of money and is probably done if he doesn't finish in the top three in Iowa. McCain has been coasting on fumes financially for the past six months. And rumors are circulating that Giuliani is well on his way to being broke too. The odds are quite good that at least a couple of the anointed front-runners won't even be in the race by Super Tuesday.

[kylejack]

I'd peg it at 30:1.

[hellah10]

Paul just needs one early victory to become a household name.



my exact thought... people still dont know this man. We have to get the name "Ron Paul" out there so that at least people can wonder

[Cleaner44]

We have not done enough, work harder.

[adpierce]

I live in Iowa.. I was sleeping when a few Ron Paul volunteers knocked on my door. A guest who is staying at my place answered the door and talked with them for a bit. When I got up he told me all about how Ron Paul supporters came and talked with him. I had no idea they were coming over, and I guess they must have missed the huge sign on the side of our place because my guest got the impression that they had no idea that I was a Ron Paul supporter. Needless to say I was pleasantly surprised that they showed up. It's kind of cool when you're a Ron Paul supporter to have Ron Paul supporters come to your place to canvass for the guy. This is the sort of stuff that is happening in Iowa and you better bet that it's going to translate into votes.

[Rocky Mtn Liberty Lover]

I personally have been registered Republican since I was able to vote (15 years ago). However, I never even knew about the Caucus system in Colorado, yet I have already researched it, realized that both Precinct Captain positions are taken (one recently by someone young [RP supporter?], and I will show up dressed very subtilely, express my open-mindedness, seek the position, then proclaim my position. If I am motivated to do this, this means that there are too many others out there doing the same thing, and I can't wait to see the results. Vive Ron Paul!!!

[HazardPerry]

Our financial situation is looking good. We can run the ads, TV, radio and newspaper, that need to be run. We can fund staffers and volunteer programs on the ground, even beyond the early primary states. The media won't wet themselves, but we will probably out-raise most if not all of the other Republicans this quarter. I don't care that people know this, I care that it means we have money on hand to fund our campaign. We need name recognition, and we need people to hear Dr. Paul explain his positions. So many people say that they were won over, or at least sniffing around to get more information, over just ONE video. This is key. Get people looking, and they will like what they find. The man is a freakin' rock -- his record and credentials are ridiculously impeccable, I mean seriously.

If reports from the ground are anything to go by, our numbers in New Hampshire may be greater than the polls represent. In Iowa, Huckleberries is a problem but really finishing 2nd or even 3rd will give us a big boost in New Hampshire. Who knows, with the infomercial and some key campaign stops, compounded by the new publicity and a few smart cookies out there, he might woo some of the Evangelical voters yet. It is critical -- critical to place at least ahead of McCain, Thompson, and maybe Giuliani. I think the G-Man is asleep at the wheel (it's strategy, uh-huh) and won't do well in either state anyway. Keep it between us, Romnom and the Chuckster and we'll have the momentum going into New Hampshire. We want to show that our man has more legs than at McCain or Thompson especially; which I think is a perfectly valid assessment even now. Those are the two candidates really eating into our votes. McCain has the people who think he is the 'independent-minded candidate,' and Thompson has the people who think he is the only 'real conservative.' :rolleyes: Kay.

I think we have the most dedicated group of voters this side of...well I think we have the most dedicated group of voters. BUT, whatever the turnout is, these two states take their voting seriously. Iowa is a make-or-break for everybody except, apparently, that bonehead mayor guy I keep hearing about. You can bet your blog that Mittens will have a fleet of buses heated, gassed up and ready to truck his cattle over hill and over dale to secure that vote. He wants Huck's head, and good hunting to him.

We have had a good run in the media the last few days, but it wouldn't hurt to pick up at least one key endorsement. I think endorsements are a pandering waste of time but apparently I'm a nutter for being here in the first place. ;) Lots of new donors and members to this forum, as well as our newest Meetup numbers mean we are growing faster and faster...but this is it. This is the test. We've raised millions of dollars, taken the fight to the media, dominated the internet, and dragged Ron Paul out of the also-ran swamp into the spotlight, with great effort, organization, and creativity. I refuse, I refuse to let the media and that smarmy Republican field have the last laugh. I want to ram victory down their throats and roll right over the bullshit and into the White House. :mad: This is the best chance we have -- we may ever have -- to take back this country. You, me, all of us need to gear up and hike fifteen miles, in the blinding blizzards, uphill, whatever it takes. We need to drag our families, our friends, and any random Republican strangers we meet on the way, to that bloody #@%!ing primary.

We've all known this from the very beginning, and I don't give a flying fed chairman how high our poll numbers go, there is only one way we are going to win and that is by TAKING victory. We do not get any favors. We don't have any buses, bumps, or braindead shill anchors running our ads all day for us. They hate us, and they hate what we are going to bring. And I don't know about you, but wiping their sickening smiles the hell off my television is one of a thousand good reasons I can think of to round up every single vote I can for Dr. Ron Paul.

[westmich4paul]

I'd say that after todays media blitz alot of Republican's willbe taking a second or third look at Ron. I really think they will come to love him as much as the other Ron!

[knappz]

This is perfect timing now with the media blitz for Paul right before the primaries, 6 million and change in one day, looking at over 20 million for the year....strap on that seat belt boys and girls this is gonna be one wild ride!

[Dave Pedersen]

Momentum is a concept of physics which does not translate into sports or politics with any certainty.

I believe we will sweep the primary field in short order and continue on to the greatest general election landslide in United States history. Ron Paul will be a household name around the world before the election is held a year from now.

But I wouldn't want anyone to relax just yet.

[nist7]

Our financial situation is looking good. We can run the ads, TV, radio and newspaper, that need to be run. We can fund staffers and volunteer programs on the ground, even beyond the early primary states. The media won't wet themselves, but we will probably out-raise most if not all of the other Republicans this quarter. I don't care that people know this, I care that it means we have money on hand to fund our campaign. We need name recognition, and we need people to hear Dr. Paul explain his positions. So many people say that they were won over, or at least sniffing around to get more information, over just ONE video. This is key. Get people looking, and they will like what they find. The man is a freakin' rock -- his record and credentials are ridiculously impeccable, I mean seriously.

If reports from the ground are anything to go by, our numbers in New Hampshire may be greater than the polls represent. In Iowa, Huckleberries is a problem but really finishing 2nd or even 3rd will give us a big boost in New Hampshire. Who knows, with the infomercial and some key campaign stops, compounded by the new publicity and a few smart cookies out there, he might woo some of the Evangelical voters yet. It is critical -- critical to place at least ahead of McCain, Thompson, and maybe Giuliani. I think the G-Man is asleep at the wheel (it's strategy, uh-huh) and won't do well in either state anyway. Keep it between us, Romnom and the Chuckster and we'll have the momentum going into New Hampshire. We want to show that our man has more legs than at McCain or Thompson especially; which I think is a perfectly valid assessment even now. Those are the two candidates really eating into our votes. McCain has the people who think he is the 'independent-minded candidate,' and Thompson has the people who think he is the only 'real conservative.' :rolleyes: Kay.

I think we have the most dedicated group of voters this side of...well I think we have the most dedicated group of voters. BUT, whatever the turnout is, these two states take their voting seriously. Iowa is a make-or-break for everybody except, apparently, that bonehead mayor guy I keep hearing about. You can bet your blog that Mittens will have a fleet of buses heated, gassed up and ready to truck his cattle over hill and over dale to secure that vote. He wants Huck's head, and good hunting to him.

We have had a good run in the media the last few days, but it wouldn't hurt to pick up at least one key endorsement. I think endorsements are a pandering waste of time but apparently I'm a nutter for being here in the first place. ;) Lots of new donors and members to this forum, as well as our newest Meetup numbers mean we are growing faster and faster...but this is it. This is the test. We've raised millions of dollars, taken the fight to the media, dominated the internet, and dragged Ron Paul out of the also-ran swamp into the spotlight, with great effort, organization, and creativity. I refuse, I refuse to let the media and that smarmy Republican field have the last laugh. I want to ram victory down their throats and roll right over the bullshit and into the White House. :mad: This is the best chance we have -- we may ever have -- to take back this country. You, me, all of us need to gear up and hike fifteen miles, in the blinding blizzards, uphill, whatever it takes. We need to drag our families, our friends, and any random Republican strangers we meet on the way, to that bloody #@%!ing primary.

We've all known this from the very beginning, and I don't give a flying fed chairman how high our poll numbers go, there is only one way we are going to win and that is by TAKING victory. We do not get any favors. We don't have any buses, bumps, or braindead shill anchors running our ads all day for us. They hate us, and they hate what we are going to bring. And I don't know about you, but wiping their sickening smiles the hell off my television is one of a thousand good reasons I can think of to round up every single vote I can for Dr. Ron Paul.

AMEN!

[Nash]

Four, Ron has a lot of money. He is famous for winning Congressional races in the past with a lot of last-minute advertising. He could also use it for GOTV efforts among populations not normally expected to vote, say college students [a HUGE Ron Paul demography].


I think you're right on with a lot of your points but I choose to highlight this one.

College students historically do not vote. This is a fact. They do rallies, they campaign, they wear buttons. They don't vote on election day.

Reasons include lack of a permanent address, not registering, not showing up to the polls.

We need to change this or we're gonna lose. If you are not registered get registered. If you are registered at your parents then vote absentee so you don't wind up on voting day being in a different state than where you are registered. If you're a dem or indie then re-register Republican so you don't have to vote for Obama.

There have been tons of campaigns historically that had plenty of "boots on the ground" in terms of support and then come election day the campaigns tanked because these very same people didn't vote due to technicalities. This cannot happen to us.

[OferNave]

I hope he can win the nomination and I think it is remotely possible. I'm more worried about the general election. I think Ron Paul's message is too "extreme" for most Americans. People won't embrace the kind of change he is advocating unless they feel they have nothing to lose. We are still a long way from that point I think.

The general election will be embarassingly easy if we win the nomination. The Republican party won the last two while running a monkey. Now we have Ron Paul. We automatically get all Republicans, plus everyone else that Ron Paul attracts - including the millions of people who just vote Democrat to end the war, because we have the better anti-war candidate. It may just be the largest general election landslide in history.

Focus on the primaries.

[SteveMartin]

With regard to the subject heading: Not that good, and here's why:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=60158

[FreeTraveler]

Slim right now. It all hangs on early states, I think.

Look where John Kerry was in December. :D

[Ethek]

Look where John Kerry was in December. :D

Yeah, but how much local press and media coverage was he sharing despite the low poll numbers. I dont think he was as blacklisted as Ron Paul is.

[ronpaulitician]

Primaries: 6/1
General: 5/1

(up from two weeks ago, when I placed the odds at 7/1 and 6/1 respectively; the $6 million day and the Beck interview did the campaign a lot of good)